789 resultados para Assessment and Variability
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Multiple-choice assessment is used within nearly all levels of education and is often heavily relied upon within both secondary and postsecondary institutions in determining a student’s present and future success. Understanding why it is effective or ineffective, how it is developed, and when it is or is not used by teachers can further inform teachers’ assessment practices, and subsequently, improve opportunities for student success. Twenty-eight teachers from 3 secondary schools in southern Ontario were interviewed about their perceptions and use of multiple-choice assessment and participated in a single-session introductory workshop on this topic. Perceptions and practices were revealed, discussed, and challenged through the use of a qualitative research method and examined alongside existing multiple-choice research. Discussion centered upon participants’ perspectives prior to and following their participation in the workshop. Implications related to future assessment practices and research in this field of assessment were presented. Findings indicated that many teachers utilized the multiple-choice form of assessment having had very little teacher education coursework or inservice professional development in the use of this format. The findings also revealed that teachers were receptive to training in this area but simply had not been exposed to or been given the opportunity to further develop their understanding. Participants generally agreed on its strengths (e.g., objectivity) and weaknesses (e.g., development difficulty). Participants were particularly interested in the potential for this assessment format to assess different levels of cognitive difficulty (i.e., levels beyond remembering of Bloom’s revised taxonomy), in addition to its potential to perhaps provide equitable means for assessing students of varying cultures, disabilities, and academic streams.
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This is a study of the implementation and impact of formative assessment strategies on the motivation and self-efficacy of secondary school mathematics students. An explanatory sequential mixed methods design was implemented where quantitative and qualitative data were collected and analyzed sequentially in 2 different phases. The first phase involved quantitative data from student questionnaires and the second phase involved qualitative data from individual student and teacher interviews. The findings of the study suggest that formative assessment is implemented in practice in diverse ways and is a process where the strategies are interconnected. Teachers experience difficulty in incorporating peer and self-assessment and perceive a need for exemplars. Key factors described as influencing implementation include teaching philosophies, interpretation of ministry documents, teachers’ experiences, leadership in administration and department, teacher collaboration, misconceptions of teachers, and student understanding of formative assessment. Findings suggest that overall, formative assessment positively impacts student motivation and self-efficacy, because feedback is provided which offers encouragement and recognition by highlighting the progress that has been made and what steps need to be taken to improve. However, students are impacted differently with some considerations including how students perceive mistakes and if they fear judgement. Additionally, the impact of formative assessment is influenced by the connection between self-efficacy and motivation, namely how well a student is doing is a source of both concepts.
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The distribution and variability of water vapor and its links with radiative cooling and latent heating via precipitation are crucial to understanding feedbacks and processes operating within the climate system. Column-integrated water vapor (CWV) and additional variables from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) 40-year reanalysis (ERA40) are utilized to quantify the spatial and temporal variability in tropical water vapor over the period 1979–2001. The moisture variability is partitioned between dynamical and thermodynamic influences and compared with variations in precipitation provided by the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation (CMAP) and the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP). The spatial distribution of CWV is strongly determined by thermodynamic constraints. Spatial variability in CWV is dominated by changes in the large-scale dynamics, in particular associated with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Trends in CWV are also dominated by dynamics rather than thermodynamics over the period considered. However, increases in CWV associated with changes in temperature are significant over the equatorial east Pacific when analyzing interannual variability and over the north and northwest Pacific when analyzing trends. Significant positive trends in CWV tend to predominate over the oceans while negative trends in CWV are found over equatorial Africa and Brazil. Links between changes in CWV and vertical motion fields are identified over these regions and also the equatorial Atlantic. However, trends in precipitation are generally incoherent and show little association with the CWV trends. This may in part reflect the inadequacies of the precipitation data sets and reanalysis products when analyzing decadal variability. Though the dynamic component of CWV is a major factor in determining precipitation variability in the tropics, in some regions/seasons the thermodynamic component cancels its effect on precipitation variability.
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The global monsoon system is so varied and complex that understanding and predicting its diverse behaviour remains a challenge that will occupy modellers for many years to come. Despite the difficult task ahead, an improved monsoon modelling capability has been realized through the inclusion of more detailed physics of the climate system and higher resolution in our numerical models. Perhaps the most crucial improvement to date has been the development of coupled ocean-atmosphere models. From subseasonal to interdecadal time scales, only through the inclusion of air-sea interaction can the proper phasing and teleconnections of convection be attained with respect to sea surface temperature variations. Even then, the response to slow variations in remote forcings (e.g., El Niño—Southern Oscillation) does not result in a robust solution, as there are a host of competing modes of variability that must be represented, including those that appear to be chaotic. Understanding the links between monsoons and land surface processes is not as mature as that explored regarding air-sea interactions. A land surface forcing signal appears to dominate the onset of wet season rainfall over the North American monsoon region, though the relative role of ocean versus land forcing remains a topic of investigation in all the monsoon systems. Also, improved forecasts have been made during periods in which additional sounding observations are available for data assimilation. Thus, there is untapped predictability that can only be attained through the development of a more comprehensive observing system for all monsoon regions. Additionally, improved parameterizations - for example, of convection, cloud, radiation, and boundary layer schemes as well as land surface processes - are essential to realize the full potential of monsoon predictability. A more comprehensive assessment is needed of the impact of black carbon aerosols, which may modulate that of other anthropogenic greenhouse gases. Dynamical considerations require ever increased horizontal resolution (probably to 0.5 degree or higher) in order to resolve many monsoon features including, but not limited to, the Mei-Yu/Baiu sudden onset and withdrawal, low-level jet orientation and variability, and orographic forced rainfall. Under anthropogenic climate change many competing factors complicate making robust projections of monsoon changes. Absent aerosol effects, increased land-sea temperature contrast suggests strengthened monsoon circulation due to climate change. However, increased aerosol emissions will reflect more solar radiation back to space, which may temper or even reduce the strength of monsoon circulations compared to the present day. Precipitation may behave independently from the circulation under warming conditions in which an increased atmospheric moisture loading, based purely on thermodynamic considerations, could result in increased monsoon rainfall under climate change. The challenge to improve model parameterizations and include more complex processes and feedbacks pushes computing resources to their limit, thus requiring continuous upgrades of computational infrastructure to ensure progress in understanding and predicting current and future behaviour of monsoons.
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Dysregulation of lipid and glucose metabolism in the postprandial state are recognised as important risk factors for the development of cardiovascular disease and type 2 diabetes. Our objective was to create a comprehensive, standardised database of postprandial studies to provide insights into the physiological factors that influence postprandial lipid and glucose responses. Data were collated from subjects (n = 467) taking part in single and sequential meal postprandial studies conducted by researchers at the University of Reading, to form the DISRUPT (DIetary Studies: Reading Unilever Postprandial Trials) database. Subject attributes including age, gender, genotype, menopausal status, body mass index, blood pressure and a fasting biochemical profile, together with postprandial measurements of triacylglycerol (TAG), non-esterified fatty acids, glucose, insulin and TAG-rich lipoprotein composition are recorded. A particular strength of the studies is the frequency of blood sampling, with on average 10-13 blood samples taken during each postprandial assessment, and the fact that identical test meal protocols were used in a number of studies, allowing pooling of data to increase statistical power. The DISRUPT database is the most comprehensive postprandial metabolism database that exists worldwide and preliminary analysis of the pooled sequential meal postprandial dataset has revealed both confirmatory and novel observations with respect to the impact of gender and age on the postprandial TAG response. Further analysis of the dataset using conventional statistical techniques along with integrated mathematical models and clustering analysis will provide a unique opportunity to greatly expand current knowledge of the aetiology of inter-individual variability in postprandial lipid and glucose responses.
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Although the use of climate scenarios for impact assessment has grown steadily since the 1990s, uptake of such information for adaptation is lagging by nearly a decade in terms of scientific output. Nonetheless, integration of climate risk information in development planning is now a priority for donor agencies because of the need to prepare for climate change impacts across different sectors and countries. This urgency stems from concerns that progress made against Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) could be threatened by anthropogenic climate change beyond 2015. Up to this time the human signal, though detectable and growing, will be a relatively small component of climate variability and change. This implies the need for a twin-track approach: on the one hand, vulnerability assessments of social and economic strategies for coping with present climate extremes and variability, and, on the other hand, development of climate forecast tools and scenarios to evaluate sector-specific, incremental changes in risk over the next few decades. This review starts by describing the climate outlook for the next couple of decades and the implications for adaptation assessments. We then review ways in which climate risk information is already being used in adaptation assessments and evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of three groups of techniques. Next we identify knowledge gaps and opportunities for improving the production and uptake of climate risk information for the 2020s. We assert that climate change scenarios can meet some, but not all, of the needs of adaptation planning. Even then, the choice of scenario technique must be matched to the intended application, taking into account local constraints of time, resources, human capacity and supporting infrastructure. We also show that much greater attention should be given to improving and critiquing models used for climate impact assessment, as standard practice. Finally, we highlight the over-arching need for the scientific community to provide more information and guidance on adapting to the risks of climate variability and change over nearer time horizons (i.e. the 2020s). Although the focus of the review is on information provision and uptake in developing regions, it is clear that many developed countries are facing the same challenges. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society
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Over recent years there has been an increasing deployment of renewable energy generation technologies, particularly large-scale wind farms. As wind farm deployment increases, it is vital to gain a good understanding of how the energy produced is affected by climate variations, over a wide range of time-scales, from short (hours to weeks) to long (months to decades) periods. By relating wind speed at specific sites in the UK to a large-scale climate pattern (the North Atlantic Oscillation or "NAO"), the power generated by a modelled wind turbine under three different NAO states is calculated. It was found that the wind conditions under these NAO states may yield a difference in the mean wind power output of up to 10%. A simple model is used to demonstrate that forecasts of future NAO states can potentially be used to improve month-ahead statistical forecasts of monthly-mean wind power generation. The results confirm that the NAO has a significant impact on the hourly-, daily- and monthly-mean power output distributions from the turbine with important implications for (a) the use of meteorological data (e.g. their relationship to large scale climate patterns) in wind farm site assessment and, (b) the utilisation of seasonal-to-decadal climate forecasts to estimate future wind farm power output. This suggests that further research into the links between large-scale climate variability and wind power generation is both necessary and valuable.
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Cladistic analyses begin with an assessment of variation for a group of organisms and the subsequent representation of that variation as a data matrix. The step of converting observed organismal variation into a data matrix has been considered subjective, contentious, under-investigated, imprecise, unquantifiable, intuitive, as a black-box, and at the same time as ultimately the most influential phase of any cladistic analysis (Pimentel and Riggins, 1987; Bryant, 1989; Pogue and Mickevich, 1990; de Pinna, 1991; Stevens, 1991; Bateman et al., 1992; Smith, 1994; Pleijel, 1995; Wilkinson, 1995; Patterson and Johnson, 1997). Despite the concerns of these authors, primary homology assessment is often perceived as reproducible. In a recent paper, Hawkins et al. (1997) reiterated two points made by a number of these authors: that different interpretations of characters and coding are possible and that different workers will perceive and define characters in different ways. One reviewer challenged us: did we really think that two people working on the same group would come up with different data sets? The conflicting views regarding the reproducibility of the cladistic character matrix provoke a number of questions. Do the majority of workers consistently follow the same guidelines? Has the theoretical framework informing primary homology assessment been adequately explored? The objective of this study is to classify approaches to primary homology assessment, and to quantify the extent to which different approaches are found in the literature by examining variation in the way characters are defined and coded in a data matrix.
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Urbanization is one of the major forms of habitat alteration occurring at the present time. Although this is typically deleterious to biodiversity, some species flourish within these human-modified landscapes, potentially leading to negative and/or positive interactions between people and wildlife. Hence, up-to-date assessment of urban wildlife populations is important for developing appropriate management strategies. Surveying urban wildlife is limited by land partition and private ownership, rendering many common survey techniques difficult. Garnering public involvement is one solution, but this method is constrained by the inherent biases of non-standardised survey effort associated with voluntary participation. We used a television-led media approach to solicit national participation in an online sightings survey to investigate changes in the distribution of urban foxes in Great Britain and to explore relationships between urban features and fox occurrence and sightings density. Our results show that media-based approaches can generate a large national database on the current distribution of a recognisable species. Fox distribution in England and Wales has changed markedly within the last 25 years, with sightings submitted from 91% of urban areas previously predicted to support few or no foxes. Data were highly skewed with 90% of urban areas having <30 fox sightings per 1000 people km-2. The extent of total urban area was the only variable with a significant impact on both fox occurrence and sightings density in urban areas; longitude and percentage of public green urban space were respectively, significantly positively and negatively associated with sightings density only. Latitude, and distance to nearest neighbouring conurbation had no impact on either occurrence or sightings density. Given the limitations associated with this method, further investigations are needed to determine the association between sightings density and actual fox density, and variability of fox density within and between urban areas in Britain.
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The assessment of chess players is an increasingly attractive opportunity and an unfortunate necessity. The chess community needs to limit potential reputational damage by inhibiting cheating and unjustified accusations of cheating: there has been a recent rise in both. A number of counter-intuitive discoveries have been made by benchmarking the intrinsic merit of players’ moves: these call for further investigation. Is Capablanca actually, objectively the most accurate World Champion? Has ELO rating inflation not taken place? Stimulated by FIDE/ACP, we revisit the fundamentals of the subject to advance a framework suitable for improved standards of computational experiment and more precise results. Other domains look to chess as the demonstrator of good practice, including the rating of professionals making high-value decisions under pressure, personnel evaluation by Multichoice Assessment and the organization of crowd-sourcing in citizen science projects. The ‘3P’ themes of performance, prediction and profiling pervade all these domains.
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A quality assessment of the CFC-11 (CCl3F), CFC-12 (CCl2F2), HF, and SF6 products from limb-viewing satellite instruments is provided by means of a detailed intercomparison. The climatologies in the form of monthly zonal mean time series are obtained from HALOE, MIPAS, ACE-FTS, and HIRDLS within the time period 1991–2010. The intercomparisons focus on the mean biases of the monthly and annual zonal mean fields and aim to identify their vertical, latitudinal and temporal structure. The CFC evaluations (based on MIPAS, ACE-FTS and HIRDLS) reveal that the uncertainty in our knowledge of the atmospheric CFC-11 and CFC-12 mean state, as given by satellite data sets, is smallest in the tropics and mid-latitudes at altitudes below 50 and 20 hPa, respectively, with a 1σ multi-instrument spread of up to ±5 %. For HF, the situation is reversed. The two available data sets (HALOE and ACE-FTS) agree well above 100 hPa, with a spread in this region of ±5 to ±10 %, while at altitudes below 100 hPa the HF annual mean state is less well known, with a spread ±30 % and larger. The atmospheric SF6 annual mean states derived from two satellite data sets (MIPAS and ACE-FTS) show only very small differences with a spread of less than ±5 % and often below ±2.5 %. While the overall agreement among the climatological data sets is very good for large parts of the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (CFCs, SF6) or middle stratosphere (HF), individual discrepancies have been identified. Pronounced deviations between the instrument climatologies exist for particular atmospheric regions which differ from gas to gas. Notable features are differently shaped isopleths in the subtropics, deviations in the vertical gradients in the lower stratosphere and in the meridional gradients in the upper troposphere, and inconsistencies in the seasonal cycle. Additionally, long-term drifts between the instruments have been identified for the CFC-11 and CFC-12 time series. The evaluations as a whole provide guidance on what data sets are the most reliable for applications such as studies of atmospheric transport and variability, model–measurement comparisons and detection of long-term trends. The data sets will be publicly available from the SPARC Data Centre and through PANGAEA (doi:10.1594/PANGAEA.849223).
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Objectives. To investigate health self-assessment and to estimate the prevalence of chronic diseases and recent illnesses in people with and without physical disabilities (PD) in the state of Sao Paulo, southeastern Brazil. Study design. A Cross-sectional study comprising two population-based health surveys conducted in 2002 and 2003. Methods. A total of 8317 persons (165 with PD) were interviewed in the two studies. Variables concerning to health self-assessment; chronic disease and recent illness were compared in the people with and without PD. Negative binomial regression was used in the analysis. Results. Subjects with PD more often assessed their health as poor/very poor compared to non-disabled ones. They reported more illnesses in the 15 days prior to interview as well as more chronic diseases (skin conditions, anaemia, chronic kidney disease, stroke, depression/anxiety, migraine/headache, pulmonary diseases, hypertension, diabetes, arthritis/arthrosis/rheumatic conditions and heart disease). This higher disease prevalence can be either attributed to disability itself or be associated to gender, age and schooling. Conclusions. Subjects with PD had more recent illnesses and chronic diseases and poorer health self-assessment than non-disabled ones. Age, gender, schooling and disability have individual roles in disease development among disabled people.
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The optically stimulated luminescence (OSL) sensitivity of quartz has a significant influence on luminescence dating procedures. Furthermore, identifying the natural controls of quartz OSL sensitivity is an important step towards new applications of OSL in geology such as provenance tracing. We evaluate the OSL sensitivity (total and the proportion of the informally assigned fast, medium and slow components) of single grains of quartz extracted from 10 different igneous and metamorphic rocks with known formation conditions; and from fluvial and coastal sediments with different sedimentary histories and known source rocks. This sample suite allows assessment of the variability of the OSL sensitivity of single quartz grains with respect to their primary origin and sedimentary history. We observed significant variability in the OSL sensitivity of grains within all studied rock and sediment samples, with the brightest grains of each sample being those dominated by the fast component. Quartz from rocks formed under high temperature (> 500 degrees C) conditions, such as rhyolites and metamorphic rocks from the amphibolite facies, display higher OSL sensitivity. The OSL sensitivity of fluvial sediments which have experienced only a short transport distance is relatively low. These sediments show a small increase in OSL sensitivity downstream, mainly due to a decreasing fraction of ""dim"" grains. The quartz grains from coastal sands present very high sensitivity and variability, which is consistent with their long sedimentary history. The high variability of the OSL sensitivity of quartz from coastal sands is attributed more to the mixture of grains with distinct sedimentary histories than to the provenance from many types of source rocks. The temperature of crystallization and the number of cycles of burial and solar exposure are suggested as the main natural factors controlling the OSL sensitivity of quartz grains. The increase in OSL sensitivity due to cycles of erosion and deposition surpasses the sensitivity inherited from the source rock, with this increase being mainly related to the sensitization of fast OSL components. The discrimination of grains with different sedimentary histories through their OSL sensitivities can allow the development of quantitative provenance methods based on quartz. (C) 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
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The rapid growth of urban areas has a significant impact on traffic and transportation systems. New management policies and planning strategies are clearly necessary to cope with the more than ever limited capacity of existing road networks. The concept of Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) arises in this scenario; rather than attempting to increase road capacity by means of physical modifications to the infrastructure, the premise of ITS relies on the use of advanced communication and computer technologies to handle today’s traffic and transportation facilities. Influencing users’ behaviour patterns is a challenge that has stimulated much research in the ITS field, where human factors start gaining great importance to modelling, simulating, and assessing such an innovative approach. This work is aimed at using Multi-agent Systems (MAS) to represent the traffic and transportation systems in the light of the new performance measures brought about by ITS technologies. Agent features have good potentialities to represent those components of a system that are geographically and functionally distributed, such as most components in traffic and transportation. A BDI (beliefs, desires, and intentions) architecture is presented as an alternative to traditional models used to represent the driver behaviour within microscopic simulation allowing for an explicit representation of users’ mental states. Basic concepts of ITS and MAS are presented, as well as some application examples related to the subject. This has motivated the extension of an existing microscopic simulation framework to incorporate MAS features to enhance the representation of drivers. This way demand is generated from a population of agents as the result of their decisions on route and departure time, on a daily basis. The extended simulation model that now supports the interaction of BDI driver agents was effectively implemented, and different experiments were performed to test this approach in commuter scenarios. MAS provides a process-driven approach that fosters the easy construction of modular, robust, and scalable models, characteristics that lack in former result-driven approaches. Its abstraction premises allow for a closer association between the model and its practical implementation. Uncertainty and variability are addressed in a straightforward manner, as an easier representation of humanlike behaviours within the driver structure is provided by cognitive architectures, such as the BDI approach used in this work. This way MAS extends microscopic simulation of traffic to better address the complexity inherent in ITS technologies.
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This study describes the reading comprehension processes present in the most widely sold textbooks at the fourth grade level in Portugal and discusses how they compare to international assessments of reading literacy. We adopted the Progress of International Reading Literacy Study framework to categorize the questions in the textbooks. Our analyses revealed that they focus heavily on the retrieval of explicitly stated information to the detriment of higher level comprehension skills. Portuguese fourth grade textbooks rarely challenge students to make connections between their knowledge and the ideas in the texts and to adopt a critical and evaluative reading stance. This is in sharp contrast to what students are asked to do in the Progress of International Reading Literacy Study, conducted every five years since 2001, and it may help explain the poor results Portuguese students have in national assessment and in PISA. The findings are discussed in light of the curriculum frameworks currently adopted in Portugal and suggestions are made as to how we can improve reading literacy achievement.