Unemployment: natural rate epicycles or hysteresis?

This paper argues that the natural rate of unemployment hypothesis, in which equilibrium unemployment is determined by “structural” variables alone, is wrong: it is both implausible and inconsistent with the evidence. Instead, equilibrium unemployment is haunted by hysteresis. The curious history of the natural rate hypothesis is considered, curious because the authors of the hypothesis thought hysteresis to be relevant. The various methods that have been used to model hysteresis in economic systems are outlined, including the Preisach model with its selective, erasable memory properties. The evidence regarding hysteresis effects on output and unemployment is then reviewed. The implications for macroeconomic policy, and for the macroeconomics profession, are discussed.

Exchange Rate Predictability in a Changing World

An expanding literature articulates the view that Taylor rules are helpful in predicting exchange rates. In a changing world however, Taylor rule parameters may be subject to structural instabilities, for example during the Global Financial Crisis. This paper forecasts exchange rates using such Taylor rules with Time Varying Parameters (TVP) estimated by Bayesian methods. In core out-of-sample results, we improve upon a random walk benchmark for at least half, and for as many as eight out of ten, of the currencies considered. This contrasts with a constant parameter Taylor rule model that yields a more limited improvement upon the benchmark. In further results, Purchasing Power Parity and Uncovered Interest Rate Parity TVP models beat a random walk benchmark, implying our methods have some generality in exchange rate prediction.

Measuring the Euro-Dollar Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate using the Unobserved Components Model

This paper employs an unobserved component model that incorporates a set of economic fundamentals to obtain the Euro-Dollar permanent equilibrium exchange rates (PEER) for the period 1975Q1 to 2008Q4. The results show that for most of the sample period, the Euro-Dollar exchange rate closely followed the values implied by the PEER. The only significant deviations from the PEER occurred in the years immediately before and after the introduction of the single European currency. The forecasting exercise shows that incorporating economic fundamentals provides a better long-run exchange rate forecasting performance than a random walk process.

On the Sources of Uncertainty in Exchange Rate Predictability

We analyse the role of time-variation in coefficients and other sources of uncertainty in exchange rate forecasting regressions. Our techniques incorporate the notion that the relevant set of predictors and their corresponding weights, change over time. We find that predictive models which allow for sudden rather than smooth, changes in coefficients significantly beat the random walk benchmark in out-of-sample forecasting exercise. Using innovative variance decomposition scheme, we identify uncertainty in coefficients' estimation and uncertainty about the precise degree of coefficients' variability, as the main factors hindering models' forecasting performance. The uncertainty regarding the choice of the predictor is small.

Analyzing aggregate real exchange rate persistence through the lens of sectoral data

In this paper we analyze the persistence of aggregate real exchange rates (RERs) for a group of EU-15 countries by using sectoral data. The tight relation between aggregate and sectoral persistence recently investigated by Mayoral (2008) allows us to decompose aggregate RER persistence into the persistence of its different subcomponents. We show that the distribution of sectoral persistence is highly heterogeneous and very skewed to the right, and that a limited number of sectors are responsible for the high levels of persistence observed at the aggregate level. We use quantile regression to investigate whether the traditional theories proposed to account for the slow reversion to parity (lack of arbitrage due to nontradibilities or imperfect competition and price stickiness) are able to explain the behavior of the upper quantiles of sectoral persistence. We conclude that pricing to market in the intermediate goods sector together with price stickiness have more explanatory power than variables related to the tradability of the goods or their inputs.

The role of fixed delays in neuronal rate models

Fixed delays in neuronal interactions arise through synaptic and dendritic processing. Previous work has shown that such delays, which play an important role in shaping the dynamics of networks of large numbers of spiking neurons with continuous synaptic kinetics, can be taken into account with a rate model through the addition of an explicit, fixed delay. Here we extend this work to account for arbitrary symmetric patterns of synaptic connectivity and generic nonlinear transfer functions. Specifically, we conduct a weakly nonlinear analysis of the dynamical states arising via primary instabilities of the stationary uniform state. In this way we determine analytically how the nature and stability of these states depend on the choice of transfer function and connectivity. While this dependence is, in general, nontrivial, we make use of the smallness of the ratio in the delay in neuronal interactions to the effective time constant of integration to arrive at two general observations of physiological relevance. These are: 1 - fast oscillations are always supercritical for realistic transfer functions. 2 - Traveling waves are preferred over standing waves given plausible patterns of local connectivity.

Reduction of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysm expansion rate by statins.

BACKGROUND: To evaluate the effect of statins on the annual expansion rate (ER) of small infrarenal abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients under regular surveillance for small AAA between January 2000 and September 2007, in the Department of Angiology, Lausanne University Hospital, were included. Inclusion criteria were baseline abdominal aortic diameter between 25 and 55 mm, at least two measurements of AAA diameter and a minimum follow up of 6 months. Patients with Marfan disease, infectious or inflammatory AAA, and patients with prior AAA repair were excluded. The influence of statin use and other factors on ER were examined by bivariate and multivariate analysis. RESULTS: Among 589 patients who underwent an abdominal aorta evaluation, 94 patients (89 % men, mean age 69.1 years) were finally included in the analysis. Baseline AAA size was 39.9 ± 7.7 mm (mean±SE) and 48.7 ± 8.4 mm at end of follow-up. Patients had a regular aneurysm size assessment during 38.5 ± 27.7 months. Mean ER was 3.59 mm/y (± 2.81). The 50 patients who were treated with statin during the study period had a lower ER compared to the 44 controls (2.91 vs 4.37 mm/year, p = 0.01). CONCLUSIONS: This study confirms the considerable individual variations in the AAA expansion rate, and emphasizes the need for regular aortic diameter assessments. In this study, patients treated with statin demonstrate a significant decrease in the ER compared to controls. This finding need to be evaluated in prospective interventional studies powered to demonstrate the potential benefit of statin treatment.

Stochastic demography and the neutral substitution rate in class-structured populations.

The neutral rate of allelic substitution is analyzed for a class-structured population subject to a stationary stochastic demographic process. The substitution rate is shown to be generally equal to the effective mutation rate, and under overlapping generations it can be expressed as the effective mutation rate in newborns when measured in units of average generation time. With uniform mutation rate across classes the substitution rate reduces to the mutation rate.

Identification of two steroid-responsive promoters of different strength controlled by the same estrogen-responsive element in the 5'-end region of the Xenopus laevis vitellogenin gene A1.

A structural and functional analysis of the 5'-end region of the Xenopus laevis vitellogenin gene A1 revealed two transcription initiation sites located 1.8 kilobases apart. A RNA polymerase II binding assay indicates that both promoters form initiation complexes efficiently. In vitro, using a transcription assay derived from a HeLa whole-cell extract, the upstream promoter is more than 10-fold stronger than the downstream one. In contrast, both promoters have a similar strength in a HeLa nuclear extract. In vivo, that is in estrogen-stimulated hepatocytes, it is the downstream promoter homologous to the one used by the other members of the vitellogenin gene family, which is 50-fold stronger than the upstream promoter. Thus, if functional vitellogenin mRNA results from this latter activity, it would contribute less than 1% to the synthesis of vitellogenin by fully induced Xenopus hepatocytes expressing the four vitellogenin genes. In contrast, both gene A1 promoters are silent in uninduced hepatocytes. Transfection experiments using the Xenopus cell line B3.2 in which estrogen-responsiveness has been introduced reveal that the strong downstream promoter is controlled by an estrogen responsive element (ERE) located 330 bp upstream of it. The upstream promoter can also be controlled by the same ERE. Since the region comprising the upstream promoter is flanked by a 200 base pair long inverted repeat with stretches of homology to other regions of the X. laevis genome, we speculate that it might have been inserted upstream of the vitellogenin gene A1 by a recombination event and consequently brought under control of the ERE lying 1.5 kilobases downstream.

Pregnancy-related changes in activity energy expenditure and resting metabolic rate in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: To measure resting metabolic rate (RMR), activity energy expenditure (AEE), total energy expenditure (TEE) and physical activity pattern, that is, duration and intensity (in metabolic equivalents, METs) of activities performed in late pregnancy compared with postpartum in healthy, well-nourished women living in Switzerland. SUBJECTS/METHODS: Weight, height, RMR, AEE, TEE and physical activity patterns were measured longitudinally in 27 healthy women aged 23-40 years at 38.2+/-1.5 weeks of gestation and 40.0+/-7.2 weeks postpartum. RESULTS: The RMR during late pregnancy was 7480 kJ per day, that is, 1320+/-760 kJ per day (21.4%) higher than the postpartum RMR (P<0.001). Absolute changes in RMR were positively correlated with the corresponding changes in body weight (r=0.61, P<0.001). RMR per kg body weight was similar in late pregnancy vs postpartum (P=0.28). AEE per kg during pregnancy and postpartum was 40+/-13 and 50+/-20 kJ/kg, respectively (P=0.001). There were significant differences in daily time spent at METs<1.5 (1067 vs 998 min, P=0.045), at 2.5< or =METs <3.0 (58 vs 82 min, P=0.002) and METs> or =6 (1 vs 6 min, P=0.014) during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: Energy expenditure in healthy women living in Switzerland increases in pregnancy compared with the postpartum state. Additional energy expenditure is primarily attributed to an increase in RMR, which is partly compensated by a decrease in AEE. The decrease in physical activity-related energy costs is achieved by selecting less demanding activities and should be taken into account when defining extra energy requirements for late pregnancy in Switzerland.

The role of the Estrogen-Responsive B box protein in skin morphogenesis, wound repair and skin disease

SUMMARY: EBBP is a poorly characterized member of the RBCC/TRIM family (RING finger B-box coiled-coilltripartite motif). It is ubiquitously expressed, but particularly high levels are found in keratinocytes. There is evidence that EBBP is involved in inflammatory processes, since it can interact with pro-interleukin-1 ß (prolL-1 ß) in human macrophages and keratinocytes, and its downregulation results in reduced secretion of IL-1 ß. IL-1ß activation and secretion requires the proteolytic cleavage of prolL-1ß by caspase-1, which in turn is actìvated by a protein complex called the inflammasome. As it has been demonstrated that EBBP can bind two different proteins of the inflammasome (NALP-1 and caspase 1), we assumed that EBBP plays a role in the regulation of inflammation and that the inflammasome, which has as yet only been described in ínflammatory cells, may also exist in keratinocytes. Indeed, I could show in my thesis that the inflammasome components are expressed in human keratinócytes at the RNA and protein level and also in vivo in human epidermis. After irradiation with a physiological dose of UVB, keratinocytes activated prolL-1ß and secreted prolL-1 a, IL-1 ß, prolL-18 and inflammasome proteins, although all these proteins lack a classical signal peptide. The secretion was dependent on caspase-1 activity, but not on de novo protein synthesis. Knock-down of NALP1 and -3, caspase-1 and -5, EBBP and Asc strongly reduced the secretion of IL-1 ß, demonstrating that also in keratinocytes inflammasome proteins are directly involved in maturation of this cytokine. These results demonstrate for the first time the presence of an active inflammasome in non-professional immune cells. Moreover, they show that UV irradiation is a stimulus for inflammasome activation in keratinocytes. For the analysis of the ín vivo functions of EBBP, transgenic mice overexpressing EBBP in the epidermis were generated. To examine the influence of EBBP overexpression on inflammatory processes, we subjected the mice to different challenges, which induce inflammation. Wound-healing, UVB irradiation and delayed hypersensitivity were tested, but we did not observe any phenotype in the K14-EBBP mice. Besides, a conditional ebbp knockout mouse has been obtained, which will allow to determine the effects of EBBP gene deletion in different tissues and organs. RESUME: EBBP est un membre encore mal connu de la famille des RBCC/TRIM (RING finger B-box coiled-coil/tripartite motif). Il est exprimé de manière ubiquitaire, et en particulier dans les kératinocytes. EBBP étant capable d'interagir avec la prointerleukine-1 ß (prolL-1 ß) dans les macrophages et les kératinocytes humains et de réguler la sécrétion de l'IL-1 ß, il est très probable que cette protéine est impliquée dans l'inflammation. L'activation et la sécrétion de l'IL-1 ß requièrent le clivage protéolytique de son précurseur prolL-1ß par la caspase-1, qui est elle-même activée par un complexe protéique appelé l'inflammasome. Comme il a été démontré qu'EBBP peut lier deux protéines de l'inflammasome (NALP-1 et caspase-1), nous avons émis l'hypothèse qu'EBBP joue un rôle dans la régulation de l'inflammation et que l'inflammasome, jusqu'ici décrit exclusivement dans des cellules inflammatoires, existe dans les kératinocytes. En effet, j'ai pu montrer dans ma thèse que les composants de l'inflammasome sont exprimés dans les kératinocytes humains ainsi que in vivo dans l'épiderme humain. Après irradiation avec une dose, physiologique d'UVB, les kératinocytes activent la prolL-1 ß et sécrètent la prolL-1a, l'IL-1 ß, la prolL-18 et des protéines de l'inflammasome, bien que toutes ces protéines soient dépourvues de peptide signal. La sécrétion dépend de la caspase-1 mais pas de la synthèse protéique de novo. Le knock-down de NALP-1 et -3, des caspase-1 et -5, d'EBBP et d'Asc réduit de manière marquée la sécrétion d'IL-1 ß, démontrant que dans les kératinocytes également, les protéines de l'inflammasome sont impliquées directement dans la maturation de cette cytokine. Ces résultats démontrent pour la première fois la présence d'un inflammasome actif dans des cellules immunitaires non professionnelles. De plus, ils montrent que l'irradiation aux UV est un stimulus pour l'activation de l'inflammasome dans les kératinocytes. Pour l'analyse des fonctions d'EBBP in vivo, nous avons généré des souris transgéniques qui surexpriment EBBP dans l'épiderme. En vue d'examiner l'influence de la surexpression d'EBBP sur le processus inflammatoire, nous avons soumis ces souris à differents modèles d'inflammation. Nous avons testé cicatrisation, UVB et hypersensibilité retardée, mais n'avons pas observé de phénotype chez les souris transgéniques. En parallèle, nous avons également généré des souris knock-out pour ebbp qui devraient nous permettre de déterminer les effets de la suppression d'EBBP dans différents tissus et organes.

The effect of subminimal inhibitory concentrations of penicillin on growth rate and haemolysin activity of group G Streptococcus

The influence of the subminimal inhibitory concentrations (1/3 and 1/4 of the MIC) of penicillin on growth rate and on haemolysin production of a strain of group G Streptococcus was studied. It was shown that 1/3 of the MIC almost completely inhibited the bacterial growth, but it was not able to inhibit haemolysin activity in the culture supernate. The generation time of bacteria grown in 1/4 of the MIC was approximately twice longer than that of the control culture. In all cultures, the haemolysin, after being produced (or liberated), reached a peak and decreased to low levels, which could suggest that group G Streptococcus produces some end products of metabolism that are able to inhibit haemolysin activity.

Elf-1 contributes to the function of the complex interleukin (IL)-2-responsive enhancer in the mouse IL-2 receptor alpha gene.

Lymphocytes regulate their responsiveness to IL-2 through the transcriptional control of the IL-2R alpha gene, which encodes a component of the high affinity IL-2 receptor. In the mouse IL-2R alpha gene this control is exerted via two regulatable elements, a promoter proximal region, and an IL-2-responsive enhancer (IL-2rE) 1.3 kb upstream. In vitro and in vivo functional analysis of the IL-2rE in the rodent thymic lymphoma-derived, CD4- CD8- cell line PC60 demonstrated that three separate elements, sites I, II, and III, were necessary for IL-2 responsiveness; these three sites demonstrate functional cooperation. Site III contains a consensus binding motif for members of the Ets family of transcription factors. Here we demonstrate that Elf-1, an Ets-like protein, binds to site III and participates in IL-2 responsiveness. In vitro site III forms a complex with a protein constitutively present in nuclear extracts from PC60 cells as well as from normal CD4- CD8- thymocytes. We have identified this molecule as Elf-1 according to a number of criteria. The complex possesses an identical electrophoretic mobility to that formed by recombinant Elf-1 protein and is super-shifted by anti-Elf-1 antibodies. Biotinylated IL-2rE probes precipitate Elf-1 from PC60 extracts provided site III is intact and both recombinant and PC60-derived proteins bind with the same relative affinities to different mutants of site III. In addition, by introducing mutations into the core of the site III Ets-like motif and comparing the corresponding effects on the in vitro binding of Elf-1 and the in vivo IL-2rE activity, we provide strong evidence that Elf-1 is directly involved in IL-2 responsiveness. The nature of the functional cooperativity observed between Elf-1 and the factors binding sites I and II remains unresolved; experiments presented here however suggest that this effect may not require direct interactions between the proteins binding these three elements.

BRX promotes Arabidopsis shoot growth.

? BREVIS RADIX (BRX) has been identified through a loss-of-function allele in the Umkirch-1 accession in a natural variation screen for Arabidopsis root growth vigor. Physiological and gene expression analyses have suggested that BRX is rate limiting for auxin-responsive gene expression by mediating cross-talk with the brassinosteroid pathway, as impaired root growth and reduced auxin perception of brx can be (partially) rescued by external brassinosteroid application. ? Using genetic tools, we show that brx mutants also display significantly reduced cotyledon and leaf growth. ? Similar to the root, the amplitude and penetrance of this phenotype depends on genetic background and shares the physiological features, reduced auxin perception and brassinosteroid rescue. Furthermore, reciprocal grafting experiments between mutant and complemented brx shoot scions and root stocks suggest that the shoot phenotypes are not an indirect consequence of the root phenotype. Finally, BRX gain-of-function lines display epinastic leaf growth and, in the case of dominant negative interference, increased epidermal cell size. Consistent with an impact of BRX on brassinosteroid biosynthesis, this phenotype is accompanied by increased brassinosteroid levels. ? In summary, our results demonstrate a ubiquitous, although quantitatively variable role of BRX in modulating the growth rate in both the root and shoot.