943 resultados para Approximate Bayesian computation, Posterior distribution, Quantile distribution, Response time data
Resumo:
A Eulerian-Eulerian CFD model was used to investigate the fast pyrolysis of biomass in a downer reactor equipped with a novel gas-solid separation mechanism. The highly endothermic pyrolysis reaction was assumed to be entirely driven by an inert solid heat carrier (sand). A one-step global pyrolysis reaction, along with the equations describing the biomass drying and heat transfer, was implemented in the hydrodynamic model presented in part I of this study (Fuel Processing Technology, V126, 366-382). The predictions of the gas-solid separation efficiency, temperature distribution, residence time and the pyrolysis product yield are presented and discussed. For the operating conditions considered, the devolatilisation efficiency was found to be above 60% and the yield composition in mass fraction was 56.85% bio-oil, 37.87% bio-char and 5.28% non-condensable gas (NCG). This has been found to agree reasonably well with recent relevant published experimental data. The novel gas-solid separation mechanism allowed achieving greater than 99.9% separation efficiency and < 2 s pyrolysis gas residence time. The model has been found to be robust and fast in terms of computational time, thus has the great potential to aid in future design and optimisation of the biomass fast pyrolysis process.
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Lifelong surveillance is not cost-effective after endovascular aneurysm repair (EVAR), but is required to detect aortic complications which are fatal if untreated (type 1/3 endoleak, sac expansion, device migration). Aneurysm morphology determines the probability of aortic complications and therefore the need for surveillance, but existing analyses have proven incapable of identifying patients at sufficiently low risk to justify abandoning surveillance. This study aimed to improve the prediction of aortic complications, through the application of machine-learning techniques. Patients undergoing EVAR at 2 centres were studied from 2004–2010. Aneurysm morphology had previously been studied to derive the SGVI Score for predicting aortic complications. Bayesian Neural Networks were designed using the same data, to dichotomise patients into groups at low- or high-risk of aortic complications. Network training was performed only on patients treated at centre 1. External validation was performed by assessing network performance independently of network training, on patients treated at centre 2. Discrimination was assessed by Kaplan-Meier analysis to compare aortic complications in predicted low-risk versus predicted high-risk patients. 761 patients aged 75 +/− 7 years underwent EVAR in 2 centres. Mean follow-up was 36+/− 20 months. Neural networks were created incorporating neck angu- lation/length/diameter/volume; AAA diameter/area/volume/length/tortuosity; and common iliac tortuosity/diameter. A 19-feature network predicted aor- tic complications with excellent discrimination and external validation (5-year freedom from aortic complications in predicted low-risk vs predicted high-risk patients: 97.9% vs. 63%; p < 0.0001). A Bayesian Neural-Network algorithm can identify patients in whom it may be safe to abandon surveillance after EVAR. This proposal requires prospective study.
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For the past several decades, we have experienced the tremendous growth, in both scale and scope, of real-time embedded systems, thanks largely to the advances in IC technology. However, the traditional approach to get performance boost by increasing CPU frequency has been a way of past. Researchers from both industry and academia are turning their focus to multi-core architectures for continuous improvement of computing performance. In our research, we seek to develop efficient scheduling algorithms and analysis methods in the design of real-time embedded systems on multi-core platforms. Real-time systems are the ones with the response time as critical as the logical correctness of computational results. In addition, a variety of stringent constraints such as power/energy consumption, peak temperature and reliability are also imposed to these systems. Therefore, real-time scheduling plays a critical role in design of such computing systems at the system level. We started our research by addressing timing constraints for real-time applications on multi-core platforms, and developed both partitioned and semi-partitioned scheduling algorithms to schedule fixed priority, periodic, and hard real-time tasks on multi-core platforms. Then we extended our research by taking temperature constraints into consideration. We developed a closed-form solution to capture temperature dynamics for a given periodic voltage schedule on multi-core platforms, and also developed three methods to check the feasibility of a periodic real-time schedule under peak temperature constraint. We further extended our research by incorporating the power/energy constraint with thermal awareness into our research problem. We investigated the energy estimation problem on multi-core platforms, and developed a computation efficient method to calculate the energy consumption for a given voltage schedule on a multi-core platform. In this dissertation, we present our research in details and demonstrate the effectiveness and efficiency of our approaches with extensive experimental results.
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Experiments were conducted to show the effects of thermal and geometric boundary conditions on the liquid pool of a binary alloy system which is undergoing phase change, solidification. Transparent analogue solutions were selected for study and experimental apparatus were designed and built. Thermal distribution and concentration data were collected and analysed for the melt pool of various selected geometries and boundary conditions of the systems under study. The data indicate-that characteristic flows develop for both Hypereutectic and Hypoeutectic concentration levels and that the development of macrosegregation and microsegregation defects in continuous casting materials can be minimised by the adjustment of the process variables.
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Mapeamento das dissertações e teses referentes à subárea da comunicação popular, alternativa e comunitária (CPAC) desenvolvidas nos Programas de Pós-Graduação em Comunicação stricto sensu no Brasil, de 1972 a 2012. Dentre os objetivos estão localizar as pesquisas; os autores; sua distribuição no tempo e espaço; identificar as instituições e orientadores que impulsionam a subárea; definir as abordagens teórico-metodológicas; e apontar autores/conceitos referência. Por meio de pesquisa exploratória e aplicação de quatro filtros, chegou-se a uma amostra final de 102 pesquisas, 87 dissertações e 15 teses, submetidas à análise quantitativa, por meio de Análise de Conteúdo a partir de partes pré-definidas (Resumo, Palavras chave, Introdução, Sumário, Considerações Finais e capítulo metodológico, quando presente), e a uma análise qualitativa do conteúdo completo das 15 teses. O método que orienta esta pesquisa é o histórico dialético, na perspectiva da busca de uma análise de conjunto e atenta às contradições e mudanças que o objeto está implicado; e a pesquisa bibliográfica que a fundamenta se ancora em autores como Jorge González, Cicilia Peruzzo, Regina Festa, Pedro Gilberto Gomes, Gilberto Giménez e Augusto Triviños e foi realizada com o apoio do software NVivo. Resultados quantitativos indicam: a) predominância de pesquisas sobre comunicação comunitária (68%) b) predominância de estudos empíricos (79%); c) a variedade de denominações atribuídas às experiências pelos pesquisadores; d) a constante luta das classes populares por democratização da comunicação e por direitos sociais ao longo dos anos; e) a influência e importância dos intelectuais orgânicos nas experiências estudadas, f) problemas metodológicos; g) UMESP, USP e UFRJ como instituições protagonistas, e, h) Cicilia Peruzzo e Raquel Paiva como as que mais orientam teses e dissertações sobre a temática. Quanto à análise qualitativa verificaram-se alguns critérios que permeiam a CPAC: 1) a definição de classes subalternas; 2) a importância da participação ativa das comunidades nos processos de comunicação; e 3) formas, conteúdos e objetivos que se complementam e dão identidade às experiências
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Testing for differences within data sets is an important issue across various applications. Our work is primarily motivated by the analysis of microbiomial composition, which has been increasingly relevant and important with the rise of DNA sequencing. We first review classical frequentist tests that are commonly used in tackling such problems. We then propose a Bayesian Dirichlet-multinomial framework for modeling the metagenomic data and for testing underlying differences between the samples. A parametric Dirichlet-multinomial model uses an intuitive hierarchical structure that allows for flexibility in characterizing both the within-group variation and the cross-group difference and provides very interpretable parameters. A computational method for evaluating the marginal likelihoods under the null and alternative hypotheses is also given. Through simulations, we show that our Bayesian model performs competitively against frequentist counterparts. We illustrate the method through analyzing metagenomic applications using the Human Microbiome Project data.
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As a device, the laser is an elegant conglomerate of elementary physical theories and state-of-the-art techniques ranging from quantum mechanics, thermal and statistical physics, material growth and non-linear mathematics. The laser has been a commercial success in medicine and telecommunication while driving the development of highly optimised devices specifically designed for a plethora of uses. Due to their low-cost and large-scale predictability many aspects of modern life would not function without the lasers. However, the laser is also a window into a system that is strongly emulated by non-linear mathematical systems and are an exceptional apparatus in the development of non-linear dynamics and is often used in the teaching of non-trivial mathematics. While single-mode semiconductor lasers have been well studied, a unified comparison of single and two-mode lasers is still needed to extend the knowledge of semiconductor lasers, as well as testing the limits of current model. Secondly, this work aims to utilise the optically injected semiconductor laser as a tool so study non-linear phenomena in other fields of study, namely ’Rogue waves’ that have been previously witnessed in oceanography and are suspected as having non-linear origins. The first half of this thesis includes a reliable and fast technique to categorise the dynamical state of optically injected two mode and single mode lasers. Analysis of the experimentally obtained time-traces revealed regions of various dynamics and allowed the automatic identification of their respective stability. The impact of this method is also extended to the detection regions containing bi-stabilities. The second half of the thesis presents an investigation into the origins of Rogue Waves in single mode lasers. After confirming their existence in single mode lasers, their distribution in time and sudden appearance in the time-series is studied to justify their name. An examination is also performed into the existence of paths that make Rogue Waves possible and the impact of noise on their distribution is also studied.
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Changes in olfactory-mediated behaviour caused by elevated CO2 levels in the ocean could affect recruitment to reef fish populations because larval fish become more vulnerable to predation. However, it is currently unclear how elevated CO2 will impact the other key part of the predator-prey interaction - the predators. We investigated the effects of elevated CO2 and reduced pH on olfactory preferences, activity levels and feeding behaviour of a common coral reef meso-predator, the brown dottyback (Pseudochromis fuscus). Predators were exposed to either current-day CO2 levels or one of two elevated CO2 levels (~600 µatm or ~950 µatm) that may occur by 2100 according to climate change predictions. Exposure to elevated CO2 and reduced pH caused a shift from preference to avoidance of the smell of injured prey, with CO2treated predators spending approximately 20% less time in a water stream containing prey odour compared with controls. Furthermore, activity levels of fish was higher in the high CO2 treatment and feeding activity was lower for fish in the mid CO2treatment; indicating that future conditions may potentially reduce the ability of the fish to respond rapidly to fluctuations in food availability. Elevated activity levels of predators in the high CO2 treatment, however, may compensate for reduced olfactory ability, as greater movement facilitated visual detection of food. Our findings show that, at least for the species tested to date, both parties in the predator-prey relationship may be affected by ocean acidification. Although impairment of olfactory-mediated behaviour of predators might reduce the risk of predation for larval fishes, the magnitude of the observed effects of elevated CO2 acidification appear to be more dramatic for prey compared to predators. Thus, it is unlikely that the altered behaviour of predators is sufficient to fully compensate for the effects of ocean acidification on prey mortality.
Resumo:
Acidification of seawater owing to oceanic uptake of atmospheric CO2 originating from human activities such as burning of fossil fuels and land-use changes has raised serious concerns regarding its adverse effects on corals and calcifying communities. Here we demonstrate a net loss of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) material as a result of decreased calcification and increased carbonate dissolution from replicated subtropical coral reef communities (n=3) incubated in continuous-flow mesocosms subject to future seawater conditions. The calcifying community was dominated by the coral Montipora capitata. Daily average community calcification or Net Ecosystem Calcification (NEC=CaCO3 production - dissolution) was positive at 3.3 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 under ambient seawater pCO2 conditions as opposed to negative at -0.04 mmol CaCO3 m-2 h-1 under seawater conditions of double the ambient pCO2. These experimental results provide support for the conclusion that some net calcifying communities could become subject to net dissolution in response to anthropogenic ocean acidification within this century. Nevertheless, individual corals remained healthy, actively calcified (albeit slower than at present rates), and deposited significant amounts of CaCO3 under the prevailing experimental seawater conditions of elevated pCO2.
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An array of Bio-Argo floats equipped with radiometric sensors has been recently deployed in various open ocean areas representative of the diversity of trophic and bio-optical conditions prevailing in the so-called Case 1 waters. Around solar noon and almost everyday, each float acquires 0-250 m vertical profiles of Photosynthetically Available Radiation and downward irradiance at three wavelengths (380, 412 and 490 nm). Up until now, more than 6500 profiles for each radiometric channel have been acquired. As these radiometric data are collected out of operator’s control and regardless of meteorological conditions, specific and automatic data processing protocols have to be developed. Here, we present a data quality-control procedure aimed at verifying profile shapes and providing near real-time data distribution. This procedure is specifically developed to: 1) identify main issues of measurements (i.e. dark signal, atmospheric clouds, spikes and wave-focusing occurrences); 2) validate the final data with a hierarchy of tests to ensure a scientific utilization. The procedure, adapted to each of the four radiometric channels, is designed to flag each profile in a way compliant with the data management procedure used by the Argo program. Main perturbations in the light field are identified by the new protocols with good performances over the whole dataset. This highlights its potential applicability at the global scale. Finally, the comparison with modeled surface irradiances allows assessing the accuracy of quality-controlled measured irradiance values and identifying any possible evolution over the float lifetime due to biofouling and instrumental drift.
Resumo:
An array of Bio-Argo floats equipped with radiometric sensors has been recently deployed in various open ocean areas representative of the diversity of trophic and bio-optical conditions prevailing in the so-called Case 1 waters. Around solar noon and almost everyday, each float acquires 0-250 m vertical profiles of Photosynthetically Available Radiation and downward irradiance at three wavelengths (380, 412 and 490 nm). Up until now, more than 6500 profiles for each radiometric channel have been acquired. As these radiometric data are collected out of operator’s control and regardless of meteorological conditions, specific and automatic data processing protocols have to be developed. Here, we present a data quality-control procedure aimed at verifying profile shapes and providing near real-time data distribution. This procedure is specifically developed to: 1) identify main issues of measurements (i.e. dark signal, atmospheric clouds, spikes and wave-focusing occurrences); 2) validate the final data with a hierarchy of tests to ensure a scientific utilization. The procedure, adapted to each of the four radiometric channels, is designed to flag each profile in a way compliant with the data management procedure used by the Argo program. Main perturbations in the light field are identified by the new protocols with good performances over the whole dataset. This highlights its potential applicability at the global scale. Finally, the comparison with modeled surface irradiances allows assessing the accuracy of quality-controlled measured irradiance values and identifying any possible evolution over the float lifetime due to biofouling and instrumental drift.
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A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.
Resumo:
A comprehensive expert consultation was conducted in order to assess the status, trends and the most important drivers of change in the abundance and geographical distribution of kelp forests in European waters. This consultation included an on-line questionnaire, results from a workshop and data provided by a selected group of experts working on kelp forest mapping and eco-evolutionary research. Differences in status and trends according to geographical areas, species identity and small-scale variations within the same habitat where shown by assembling and mapping kelp distribution and trend data. Significant data gaps for some geographical regions, like the Mediterranean and the southern Iberian Peninsula, were also identified. The data used for this study confirmed a general trend with decreasing abundance of some native kelp species at their southern distributional range limits and increasing abundance in other parts of their distribution (Saccharina latissima and Saccorhiza polyschides). The expansion of the introduced species Undaria pinnatifida was also registered. Drivers of observed changes in kelp forests distribution and abundance were assessed using experts’ opinions. Multiple possible drivers were identified, including global warming, sea urchin grazing, harvesting, pollutionand fishing pressure, and their impact varied between geographical areas. Overall, the results highlight major threats for these ecosystems but also opportunities for conservation. Major requirements to ensure adequate protection of coastal kelp ecosystems along European coastlines are discussed, based on the local to regional gaps detected in the study.
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Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2016-08
Resumo:
Este relatório foi elaborado no âmbito do estágio curricular realizado na Direção de Serviços Técnicos e de Certificação do Instituto dos Vinhos do Douro e do Porto, I.P. Teve como principal objetivo apresentar propostas de alteração de procedimentos internos do laboratório do Instituto dos Vinhos do Douro e do Porto, I.P., no sentido de reduzir o tempo de resposta às solicitações, procurando uma melhor rentabilização tanto de equipamentos como de recursos humanos. Para atingir tal objetivo, foi elaborado o diagnóstico da situação, com base na informação recolhida na Direção de Serviços Técnicos e de Certificação, incluindo os dados fornecidos pelo software GLAB que dá apoio às operações realizadas no laboratório do Instituto dos Vinhos do Douro e do Porto. Além disso, foi efetuado o acompanhamento do circuito das amostras de produtos vínicos desde a sua receção, à análise nos setores do laboratório e posterior validação dos resultados. Dado que o estudo da entrada de amostras no setor Análise Mineral foi maioritariamente inconclusivo, apurou-se o custo por análise na determinação do chumbo e, ainda, foi realizada uma simulação determinar a despesa necessária para reduzir o número de amostras analisadas de cada vez que se liga o equipamento. Foi ainda comparado o custo da determinação do parâmetro furfural, análise que tanto pode ser realizada no setor Cromatografia Gasosa como no setor Cromatografia Líquida. Para isso, foram utlizados vários testes estatísticos. Com base na avaliação efetuada foram identificadas e propostas as seguintes oportunidades de melhoria: - Automação de uma das atividades realizadas no setor Físico-Química I, atividade esta necessária à preparação das análises; - Contrabalançar a sazonalidade verificada na receção de amostras dos clientes com as amostras provenientes da Direção de Serviços de Fiscalização e Controlo; - Inserção de algumas variáveis no software GLAB. É de realçar que a proposta referente à automação de uma das atividades realizadas no setor Físico-Química foi implementada pelo IVDP. Foram, também, identificadas propostas de futuras investigações.