Direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos and optimal embedding of a chaotic time-series

We propose here a local exponential divergence plot which is capable of providing an alternative means of characterizing a complex time series. The suggested plot defines a time-dependent exponent and a ''plus'' exponent. Based on their changes with the embedding dimension and delay time, a criterion for estimating simultaneously the minimal acceptable embedding dimension, the proper delay time, and the largest Lyapunov exponent has been obtained. When redefining the time-dependent exponent LAMBDA(k) curves on a series of shells, we have found that whether a linear envelope to the LAMBDA(k) curves exists can serve as a direct dynamical method of distinguishing chaos from noise.

Direct dynamical test for deterministic chaos

We present a direct and dynamical method to distinguish low-dimensional deterministic chaos from noise. We define a series of time-dependent curves which are closely related to the largest Lyapunov exponent. For a chaotic time series, there exists an envelope to the time-dependent curves, while for a white noise or a noise with the same power spectrum as that of a chaotic time series, the envelope cannot be defined. When a noise is added to a chaotic time series, the envelope is eventually destroyed with the increasing of the amplitude of the noise.

On the strategic equivalence of multiple-choice test scoring rules

A disadvantage of multiple-choice tests is that students have incentives to guess. To discourage guessing, it is common to use scoring rules that either penalize wrong answers or reward omissions. These scoring rules are considered equivalent in psychometrics, although experimental evidence has not always been consistent with this claim. We model students' decisions and show, first, that equivalence holds only under risk neutrality and, second, that the two rules can be modified so that they become equivalent even under risk aversion. This paper presents the results of a field experiment in which we analyze the decisions of subjects taking multiple-choice exams. The evidence suggests that differences between scoring rules are due to risk aversion as theory predicts. We also find that the number of omitted items depends on the scoring rule, knowledge, gender and other covariates.

A Non-Parametric Dimension Test of the Term Structure

Published as an article in: Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, 2004, vol. 8, issue 3, article 6.

Test well exploration in the Myakka River Basin area, Florida

In recent years, difficulties encountered in obtaining ground-water supplies with acceptable chemical characteristics in the Myakka River basin area led to the implementation of a test drilling program. Under this program, well drilling and data collection were executed in such a manner that all water-producing zones of the local aquifers, together with the quality and quantity of the water available, were effectively identified. A step-drilling method was utilized which allowed the collection of formation cuttings, water samples, and water-level data, from isolated zones in the well as drilling proceeded. The step drilling procedure is described. The driller's logs, geophysical logs, and chemical quality of water tables are presented.(Document has 66 pages.)

Using network mesures to test evolved NK-landscapes

In this paper we empirically investigate which are the structural characteristics that can help to predict the complexity of NK-landscape instances for estimation of distribution algorithms. To this end, we evolve instances that maximize the estimation of distribution algorithm complexity in terms of its success rate. Similarly, instances that minimize the algorithm complexity are evolved. We then identify network measures, computed from the structures of the NK-landscape instances, that have a statistically significant difference between the set of easy and hard instances. The features identified are consistently significant for different values of N and K.