Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

A higher mutational burden in females supports a "female protective model" in neurodevelopmental disorders.

Increased male prevalence has been repeatedly reported in several neurodevelopmental disorders (NDs), leading to the concept of a "female protective model." We investigated the molecular basis of this sex-based difference in liability and demonstrated an excess of deleterious autosomal copy-number variants (CNVs) in females compared to males (odds ratio [OR] = 1.46, p = 8 × 10(-10)) in a cohort of 15,585 probands ascertained for NDs. In an independent autism spectrum disorder (ASD) cohort of 762 families, we found a 3-fold increase in deleterious autosomal CNVs (p = 7 × 10(-4)) and an excess of private deleterious single-nucleotide variants (SNVs) in female compared to male probands (OR = 1.34, p = 0.03). We also showed that the deleteriousness of autosomal SNVs was significantly higher in female probands (p = 0.0006). A similar bias was observed in parents of probands ascertained for NDs. Deleterious CNVs (>400 kb) were maternally inherited more often (up to 64%, p = 10(-15)) than small CNVs < 400 kb (OR = 1.45, p = 0.0003). In the ASD cohort, increased maternal transmission was also observed for deleterious CNVs and SNVs. Although ASD females showed higher mutational burden and lower cognition, the excess mutational burden remained, even after adjustment for those cognitive differences. These results strongly suggest that females have an increased etiological burden unlinked to rare deleterious variants on the X chromosome. Carefully phenotyped and genotyped cohorts will be required for identifying the symptoms, which show gender-specific liability to mutational burden.

A concentric analysis of the impact of urbanization on the threatened European tree frog in an agricultural landscape

Pond-breeding amphibians are affected by site-specific factors and regional and landscape-scale patterns of land use. Recent anthropogenic landscape modifications (drainage, agriculture intensification, larger road networks, and increased traffic) affect species by reducing the suitable habitat area and fragmenting remaining populations. Using a robust concentric approach based on permutation tests, we evaluated the impact of recent landscape changes on the presence of the endangered European tree frog (Hyla arborea.) in wetlands. We analyzed the frequency of 1 traffic and 14 land-use indices at 20 circular ranges (from 100-m up to 2-km radii) around 76 ponds identified in western Switzerland. Urban areas and road surfaces had a strong adverse effect on tree frog presence even at relatively great distances (from 100 m up to 1 km). When traffic measurements were considered instead of road surfaces, the effect increased, suggesting a negative impact due to a vehicle-induced effect. Altogether, our results indicate that urbanization and traffic must be taken into account when pond creation is an option in conservation management plans, as is the case for the European tree frog in western Switzerland. We conclude that our easy-to-use and robust concentric method of analysis can successfully assist managers in identifying potential sites for pond creation, where probability of the presence of tree frogs is maximized.

The SOCS3-independent expression of IDO2 supports the homeostatic generation of T regulatory cells by human dendritic cells.

Dendritic cells (DCs) are professional APCs that have a role in the initiation of adaptive immune responses and tolerance. Among the tolerogenic mechanisms, the expression of the enzyme IDO1 represents an effective tool to generate T regulatory cells. In humans, different DC subsets express IDO1, but less is known about the IDO1-related enzyme IDO2. In this study, we found a different pattern of expression and regulation between IDO1 and IDO2 in human circulating DCs. At the protein level, IDO1 is expressed only in circulating myeloid DCs (mDCs) and is modulated by PGE2, whereas IDO2 is expressed in both mDCs and plasmacytoid DCs and is not modulated by PGE2. In healthy subjects, IDO1 expression requires the presence of PGE2 and needs continuous transcription and translation, whereas IDO2 expression is constitutive, independent from suppressor of cytokine signaling 3 activity. Conversely, in patients suffering from inflammatory arthritis, circulating DCs express both IDO1 and IDO2. At the functional level, both mDCs and plasmacytoid DCs generate T regulatory cells through an IDO1/IDO2-dependent mechanism. We conclude that, in humans, whereas IDO1 provides an additional mechanism of tolerance induced by proinflammatory mediators, IDO2 is stably expressed in steady-state conditions and may contribute to the homeostatic tolerogenic capacity of DCs.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability: the pros and cons of reductionism

In this paper I review a series of theoretical concepts that are relevant for the integrated assessment of agricultural sustainability but that are not generally included in the curriculum of the various scientific disciplines dealing with quantitative analysis of agriculture. I first illustrate with plain narratives and concrete examples that sustainability is an extremely complex issue requiring the simultaneous consideration of several aspects, which cannot be reduced into a single indicator of performance. Following, I justify this obvious need for multi-criteria analysis with theoretical concepts dealing with the epistemological predicament of complexity, starting from classic philosophical lessons to arrive to recent developments in complex system theory, in particular Rosen´s theory of modelling relation which is essential to analyze the quality of any quantitative representation. The implications of these theoretical concepts are then illustrated with applications of multi-criteria analysis to the sustainability of agriculture. I wrap up by pointing out the crucial difference between "integrated assessment" and "integrated analysis". An integrated analysis is a set of indicators and analytical models generating an analytical output. An integrated assessment is much more than that. It is about finding an effective way to deal with three key issues: (i) legitimacy – how to handle the unavoidable existence of legitimate but contrasting points of view about different meanings given by social actors to the word "development"; (ii) pertinence – how to handle in a coherent way scientific analyses referring to different scales and dimensions; and (iii) credibility – how to handle the unavoidable existence of uncertainty and genuine ignorance, when dealing with the analysis of future scenarios.

Performance of younger and older adults in lateralized right and left hemisphere asymmetry tasks supports the HAROLD model

The population of industrialized societies has increased tremendously over the last century, raising the question on how an enhanced age affects cognition. The relevance of two models of healthy aging are contrasted in the present study that both target the functioning of the two cerebral hemispheres. The right hemi-aging model (RHAM) assumes that functions of the right hemisphere decline before those of the left hemisphere. The Hemispheric Asymmetry Reduction in Older Adults (HAROLD) Model suggests that the contralateral hemisphere supports the normally superior hemisphere in a given task resulting in a reduced hemispheric asymmetry overall. In a mixed design, 20 younger and 20 older adults performed both a task assessing a left (lateralized lexical decisions) and a right (sex decisions on chimeric faces) hemisphere advantage. Results indicated that lateralized performance in both tasks was attenuated in older as compared to younger adults, in particular in men. These observations support the HAROLD model. Future studies should investigate whether this reduced functional hemispheric asymmetry in older age results from compensatory processes or from a process of de-differentiation

The Use of Passive Samplers to Reveal Industrial and Agricultural Pollution Trends in Swiss Rivers

This study shows the efficiency of passive sampling to reveal industrial and agricultural pollution trends. Two practical applications for nonpolar and polar contaminants are presented. Low-density polyethylene (LDPE) samplers were deployed for one year in the Venoge River (VD) to monitor indicator PCBs (iPCBs, IUPAC nos. 28, 52, 101, 138, 153 and 180). The results showed that the impact of PCB emissions into the river is higher in summer than in other seasons due to the low flow rate of the river during this period. P,olar organic chemical integrative samplers (POCIS) were deployed for 4 months in the Sion-Riddes canal (VS) to investigate herbicides (terbuthylazine, diuron and linuron). Desisopropylatrazine-d5 (DIA-d5) was tested as a performance reference compound (PRC) to estimate aqueous concentration. The results showed an increase of water contamination due to the studied agricultural area. The maximal contamination was observed in April and corresponds to the period of herbicide application on the crops.

Cooperative expression of junctional adhesion molecule-C and -B supports growth and invasion of glioma.

Brain invasion is a biological hallmark of glioma that contributes to its aggressiveness and limits the potential of surgery and irradiation. Deregulated expression of adhesion molecules on glioma cells is thought to contribute to this process. Junctional adhesion molecules (JAMs) include several IgSF members involved in leukocyte trafficking, angiogenesis, and cell polarity. They are expressed mainly by endothelial cells, white blood cells, and platelets. Here, we report JAM-C expression by human gliomas, but not by their normal cellular counterpart. This expression correlates with the expression of genes involved in cytoskeleton remodeling and cell migration. These genes, identified by a transcriptomic approach, include poliovirus receptor and cystein-rich 61, both known to promote glioma invasion, as well as actin filament associated protein, a c-Src binding partner. Gliomas also aberrantly express JAM-B, a high affinity JAM-C ligand. Their interaction activates the c-Src proto-oncogene, a central upstream molecule in the pathways regulating cell migration and invasion. In the tumor microenvironment, this co-expression may thus promote glioma invasion through paracrine stimuli from both tumor cells and endothelial cells. Accordingly, JAM-C/B blocking antibodies impair in vivo glioma growth and invasion, highlighting the potential of JAM-C and JAM-B as new targets for the treatment of human gliomas.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product e¤ects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990's

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product effects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market. JEL classi…fication numbers: C43, E31, L11, L13, Keywords: Hedonic price indexes, Spanish car market, car prices, CPI, Cost of living

Restriction fragment length polymorphism of 195 bp repeated satellite dna of Trypanosoma cruzi supports the existence of two phylogenetic groups

The restriction fragment length polymorphism of the 195 bp repeated DNA sequence of Trypanosoma cruzi was analyzed among 23 T. cruzi stocks giving a reliable picture of the whole phylogenetic variability of the species. The profiles observed with the enzymes Hinf I and Hae III were linked together and supported the existence of two groups. Group 1 shows a 195 bp repeated unit (Hinf I) and high molecular weight DNA (Hae III), while group 2 presents a ladder profile for each enzyme, which is a characteristic of tandemly repeated DNA. The two groups, respectively, clustered stocks pertaining to the two principal lineages evidenced by isoenzyme and RAPD markers. The congruence among these three independent genomic markers corroborates the existence of two real phylogenetic lineages in T. cruzi. The specific monomorphic profiles for each major phylogenetic lineage suggest the existence of ancient sexuality and cryptic biological speciation.