Numerical modelling of tide-induced beach water table fluctuations

Field studies have shown that the elevation of the beach groundwater table varies with the tide and such variations affect significantly beach erosion or accretion. In this paper, we present a BEM (Boundary Element Method) model for simulating the tidal fluctuation of the beach groundwater table. The model solves the two-dimensional flow equation subject to free and moving boundary conditions, including the seepage dynamics at the beach face. The simulated seepage faces were found to agree with the predictions of a simple model (Turner, 1993). The advantage of the present model is, however, that it can be used with little modification to simulate more complicated cases, e.g., surface recharge from rainfall and drainage in the aquifer may be included (the latter is related to beach dewatering technique). The model also simulated well the field data of Nielsen (1990). In particular, the model replicated three distinct features of local water table fluctuations: steep rising phase versus flat falling phase, amplitude attenuation and phase lagging.

Local dispersion of the Eucalyptus leaf beetle Chrysophtharta bimaculata (Coleoptera: Chrysomelidae), and implications for forest protection

1. Chrysophtharta bimaculata is a native chrysomelid species that can cause chronic defoliation of plantation and regrowth Eucalyptus forests in Tasmania, Australia. Knowledge of the dispersion pattern of C. bimaculata was needed in order to assess the efficiency of an integrated pest management (IPM) programme currently used for its control. 2. Using data from yellow flight traps, local populations of C. bimaculata adults were monitored over a season at spatial scales relevant to commercial forestry: within a 50-ha operational management unit (a forestry 'coupe') and between coupes. In addition, oviposition was monitored over a season at a subset of the between-coupe sites. 3. Dispersion indices (Taylor's Power Law and Iwao's Mean Crowding regression method) demonstrated that C. bimaculata adults were spatially aggregated within and between coupes, although the number of egg-batches laid at the between-coupe scale was uniform. Spatial autocorrelation analysis showed that trap-catches at the within-coupe level were similar (positively autocorrelated) to a radius distance of approximately 110 m, and then dissimilar (negatively autocorrelated) at approximately 250 m. At the between-coupe scale, no repeatable spatial autocorrelation patterns were observed. 4. For any individual site, rapid changes in beetle density were observed to be associated with loosely aggregated flights of beetles into and out of that site. Peak adult catches (> the weekly mean plus standard deviation trap-catch) for a site occurred for a period of 2.0 +/- 0.22 weeks at a time (n = 37), with normally only one or two peaks per site per season. Peak oviposition events for a site occurred on average 1.4 +/- 0.11 times per season and lasted 1.5 +/- 0.12 weeks. 5. Analysis of an extensive data set (n = 417) demonstrated that adult abundance at a site was positively correlated with egg density, but negatively correlated with tree damage (caused by conspecifics) and the presence of conspecific larvae. There was no relationship between adult abundance and a visual estimate of the amount of young foliage on trees. 6. Adults of C. bimaculata are show n to occur in relatively small, mobile aggregations. This means that pest surveys must be both regular (less than 2 weeks apart) and intensive (with sampling points no more than 150 m apart) if beetle populations are to be monitored with confidence. Further refinement of the current IPM strategy must recognize the problems posed by this temporal and spatial patchiness, particularly with regard to the use of biological insecticides, such as Bacillus thuringiensis, for which only a very short operational window exists.

Forecasting regional crop production using SOI phases: an example for the Australian peanut industry

Using peanuts as an example, a generic methodology is presented to forward-estimate regional crop production and associated climatic risks based on phases of the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). Yield fluctuations caused by a highly variable rainfall environment are of concern to peanut processing and marketing bodies. The industry could profitably use forecasts of likely production to adjust their operations strategically. Significant, physically based lag-relationships exist between an index of ocean/atmosphere El Nino/Southern Oscillation phenomenon and future rainfall in Australia and elsewhere. Combining knowledge of SOI phases in November and December with output from a dynamic simulation model allows the derivation of yield probability distributions based on historic rainfall data. This information is available shortly after planting a crop and at least 3-5 months prior to harvest. The study shows that in years when the November-December SOI phase is positive there is an 80% chance of exceeding average district yields. Conversely, in years when the November-December SOI phase is either negative or rapidly falling there is only a 5% chance of exceeding average district yields, but a 95% chance of below average yields. This information allows the industry to adjust strategically for the expected volume of production. The study shows that simulation models can enhance SOI signals contained in rainfall distributions by discriminating between useful and damaging rainfall events. The methodology can be applied to other industries and regions.

A two-dimensional fuzzy random model of soil pore structure

A new conceptual model for soil pore-solid structure is formalized. Soil pore-solid structure is proposed to comprise spatially abutting elements each with a value which is its membership to the fuzzy set ''pore,'' termed porosity. These values have a range between zero (all solid) and unity (all pore). Images are used to represent structures in which the elements are pixels and the value of each is a porosity. Two-dimensional random fields are generated by allocating each pixel a porosity by independently sampling a statistical distribution. These random fields are reorganized into other pore-solid structural types by selecting parent points which have a specified local region of influence. Pixels of larger or smaller porosity are aggregated about the parent points and within the region of interest by controlled swapping of pixels in the image. This creates local regions of homogeneity within the random field. This is similar to the process known as simulated annealing. The resulting structures are characterized using one-and two-dimensional variograms and functions describing their connectivity. A variety of examples of structures created by the model is presented and compared. Extension to three dimensions presents no theoretical difficulties and is currently under development.

A Bayesian approach to fuzzy hypotheses testing for the estimation of optimal age for vaccination against measles

Fuzzy Bayesian tests were performed to evaluate whether the mother`s seroprevalence and children`s seroconversion to measles vaccine could be considered as ""high"" or ""low"". The results of the tests were aggregated into a fuzzy rule-based model structure, which would allow an expert to influence the model results. The linguistic model was developed considering four input variables. As the model output, we obtain the recommended age-specific vaccine coverage. The inputs of the fuzzy rules are fuzzy sets and the outputs are constant functions, performing the simplest Takagi-Sugeno-Kang model. This fuzzy approach is compared to a classical one, where the classical Bayes test was performed. Although the fuzzy and classical performances were similar, the fuzzy approach was more detailed and revealed important differences. In addition to taking into account subjective information in the form of fuzzy hypotheses it can be intuitively grasped by the decision maker. Finally, we show that the Bayesian test of fuzzy hypotheses is an interesting approach from the theoretical point of view, in the sense that it combines two complementary areas of investigation, normally seen as competitive. (C) 2007 IMACS. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Biomonitoring genotoxic risks under the urban weather conditions and polluted atmosphere in Santo Andre, SP, Brazil, through Trad-MCN bioassay

The present study was made to check if the Trad-MCN bioassay, developed with inflorescences of Tradescantia pallida cv. Purpurea, might discriminate genotoxic risks in areas of the city of Santo Andre (SE Brazil) contaminated by different air pollutants, and periods of the year when risks are higher, and to determine if the variations in the frequency of micronuclei (MCN) can be explained by environmental factors that characterize the stressful situation in each site. Potted plants were exposed in sites highly contaminated by ozone (Capuava and School) and in sites reached by high vehicular emissions (downtown and Celso Daniel Park). Pedroso Park, far from the polluted areas, was taken as reference. From September 2003 to September 2004, 20 young inflorescences were collected twice a week from each place and the frequencies of MCN were estimated. The environmental conditions observed in the polluted sites were stressful enough to promote an increase of MCN, mainly in sites reached by high vehicular emissions. But MCN rates in Capuava and at Celso Daniel Park could not be predicted only by pollutants which characterized the air contamination in these sites. More severe weather conditions, mainly low temperature, relative humidity and rainfall, caused an increase of MCN. Improvement of the biomonitoring system is recommended to minimize this negative influence of weather factors. (C) 2008 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Human apolipoprotein A-I binds amyloid-beta and prevents A beta-induced neurotoxicity

Aggregates of the amyloid-P peptide (A beta) play a central role in the pathogenesis of Alzheimer`s disease (AD). Identification of proteins that physiologically bind A beta and modulate its aggregation and neurotoxicity could lead to the development of novel disease-modifying approaches in AD. By screening a phage display peptide library for high affinity ligands of aggregated A beta(1-42), We isolated a peptide homologous to a highly conserved amino acid sequence present in the N-terminus of apolipoprotein A-I (apoA-I). We show that purified human apoA-I and A beta form non-covalent complexes and that interaction with apoA-I affects the morphology of amyloid aggregates formed by A beta. Significantly, A beta/apoA-I complexes were also detected in cerebrospinal fluid from AD patients. Interestingly, apoA-I and apoA-I-containing reconstituted high density lipoprotein particles protect hippocampal neuronal cultures from A beta-induced oxidative stress and neurodegeneration. These results suggest that human apoA-I modulates A beta aggregation and A beta-induced neuronal damage and that the A beta-binding domain in apoA-I may constitute a novel framework for the design of inhibitors of A beta toxicity. (C) 2009 Published by Elsevier Ltd.

Understanding the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals of a continuous Theobroma cacao population from the Brazilian Amazon

Understanding the mating patterns of populations of tree species is a key component of ex situ genetic conservation. In this study, we analysed the genetic diversity, spatial genetic structure (SGS) and mating system at the hierarchical levels of fruits and individuals as well as pollen dispersal patterns in a continuous population of Theobroma cacao in Para State, Brazil. A total of 156 individuals in a 0.56 ha plot were mapped and genotyped for nine microsatellite loci. For the mating system analyses, 50 seeds were collected from nine seed trees by sampling five fruits per tree (10 seeds per fruit). Among the 156 individuals, 127 had unique multilocus genotypes, and the remaining were clones. The population was spatially aggregated; it demonstrated a significant SGS up to 15m that could be attributed primarily to the presence of clones. However, the short seed dispersal distance also contributed to this pattern. Population matings occurred mainly via outcrossing, but selfing was observed in some seed trees, which indicated the presence of individual variation for self-incompatibility. The matings were also correlated, especially within ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.607) rather than among the fruits ((r) over cap (p(m)) = 0.099), which suggested that a small number of pollen donors fertilised each fruit. The paternity analysis suggested a high proportion of pollen migration (61.3%), although within the plot, most of the pollen dispersal encompassed short distances (28m). The determination of these novel parameters provides the fundamental information required to establish long-term ex situ conservation strategies for this important tropical species. Heredity (2011) 106, 973-985; doi:10.1038/hdy.2010.145; published online 8 December 2010

Robust parameter settings of evolutionary algorithms for the optimisation of agricultural systems models

Numerical optimisation methods are being more commonly applied to agricultural systems models, to identify the most profitable management strategies. The available optimisation algorithms are reviewed and compared, with literature and our studies identifying evolutionary algorithms (including genetic algorithms) as superior in this regard to simulated annealing, tabu search, hill-climbing, and direct-search methods. Results of a complex beef property optimisation, using a real-value genetic algorithm, are presented. The relative contributions of the range of operational options and parameters of this method are discussed, and general recommendations listed to assist practitioners applying evolutionary algorithms to the solution of agricultural systems. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Quasi-stationarity in populations that are subject to large-scale mortality or emigration

We shall examine a model, first studied by Brockwell et al. [Adv Appl Probab 14 (1982) 709.], which can be used to describe the longterm behaviour of populations that are subject to catastrophic mortality or emigration events. Populations can suffer dramatic declines when disease, such as an introduced virus, affects the population, or when food shortages occur, due to overgrazing or fluctuations in rainfall. However, perhaps surprisingly, such populations can survive for long periods and, although they may eventually become extinct, they can exhibit an apparently stationary regime. It is useful to be able to model this behaviour. This is particularly true of the ecological examples that motivated the present study, since, in order to properly manage these populations, it is necessary to be able to predict persistence times and to estimate the conditional probability distribution of population size. We shall see that although our model predicts eventual extinction, the time till extinction can be long and the stationary exhibited by these populations over any reasonable time scale can be explained using a quasistationary distribution. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Early-Mid Holocene climatic variations in Tasmania, Australia: multi-proxy records in a stalagmite from Lynds Cave

Mass spectrometric uranium-series dating and C-O isotopic analysis of a stalagmite from Lynds Cave, northern Tasmania, Australia provide a high-resolution record of regional climate change between 5100 and 9200 yr before present (BP). Combined delta(18)O, delta(13)C, growth rate, initial U-234/U-238 and physical property (color, transparency and porosity) records allow recognition of seven climatic stages: Stage I ( > 9080 yr BP) - a relatively dry period at the beginning of stalagmite growth evidenced by elevated U-234/U-238; Stage II (9080-8600 yr BP) - a period of unstable climate characterized by high-frequency variability in temperature and bio-productivity; Stage 111 (8600-8000 yr BP) - a period of stable and moderate precipitation and stable and high bio-productivity, with a continuously rising temperature; Stage IV (8000-7400 yr BP) - the warmest period with high evaporation and low effective precipitation (rainfall less evaporation); Stage V (7400-7000 yr BP) - the wettest period with highest stalagmite growth and enhanced but unstable bio-productivity; Stage VI (7000-6600 yr BP) - a period with a significantly reduced precipitation and bio-productivity without noticeable change in temperature; Stage VII (6600-5100 yr BP) - a period of lowest temperature and precipitation marking a significant climatic deterioration. Overall, the records suggest that the warmest climate occurred between 8000 and 7400 yr BP, followed by a wettest period between 7400 and 7000 yr BP. These are broadly correlated with the so-called 'Mid Holocene optimum' previously proposed using pollen and lake level records. However, the timing and resolution of the speleothem. record from Lynds Cave are significantly higher than in both the pollen and lake level records. This allows us to correlate the abrupt change in physical property, delta(18)O, delta(13)C, growth rate, and initial U-234/U-238 of the stalagmite at similar to8000 yr BP with a global climatic event at Early-Mid Holocene transition. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

The effect of resource aggregation at different scales: Optimal foraging behavior of Cotesia rubecula

Resources can be aggregated both within and between patches. In this article, we examine how aggregation at these different scales influences the behavior and performance of foragers. We developed an optimal foraging model of the foraging behavior of the parasitoid wasp Cotesia rubecula parasitizing the larvae of the cabbage butterfly Pieris rapae. The optimal behavior was found using stochastic dynamic programming. The most interesting and novel result is that the effect of resource aggregation within and between patches depends on the degree of aggregation both within and between patches as well as on the local host density in the occupied patch, but lifetime reproductive success depends only on aggregation within patches. Our findings have profound implications for the way in which we measure heterogeneity at different scales and model the response of organisms to spatial heterogeneity.

Associations involving delays (particularly long delays) between certain weather parameters and geomagnetic activity

Four sunspot-minimum periods (1963-1966, 1971-1977, 1983-1987 and 1992-1997) have been examined for the results which are presented. Using several different weather parameters, tropospheric gravity waves, enhanced cold fronts and two rainfall data sets in Eastern Australia, associations at reasonably high levels of significance have been found with enhanced geomagnetic activity (EGA). Statistically this EGA involved either short delays of several days or long delays of about 20 days. The geomagnetic parameters used were (a) the AE index (b) the hourly H component for a number of stations and (c) the daily K-P-sum value. The K-P-sum analyses have shown that the EGA associated with the delays form part of four or five cycles of recurrent geomagnetic activity for 27-day periodicities. Furthermore statistically two recurrent cycles are found to exist concurrently, one apparently related to the short delays and the other to the long delays. Periodicities of 13.5 days are created because the two sets are displaced from each other by approximately this interval. A brief reference is made to the 13.5 periodicity known to exist for geomagnetic activity and the evidence in the literature for active regions on the sun to be displaced by 180 degrees of solar longitude.

Demography of bridled nailtail wallabies translocated to the edge of their former range from captive and wild stock

Despite numerous, generally unsuccessful attempts to reintroduce threatened Australian mammals, the factors leading to their failure have not been fully clarified, although predator control would appear to be of paramount importance. An experimental approach was taken in attempting to establish a population of bridled nailtail wallabies ih an area of apparently suitable habitat and low fox density, but on the edge of the species' former range. The 133 wallabies released since late 1996 comprised four groups captive-bred animals, wild caught from the single remaining wild population, animals that were captive bred and acclimatised at the translocation site in a 10 ha predator-proof enclosure, and animals which had been bred in the enclosure. Survival was highest in those bred in the enclosure and highly variable among captive-bred animals. Survival estimates for wild recruits suggested the population would maintain a positive rate of increase under prevailing environmental conditions. Spotlighting surveys suggested the population had increased to approximately 400 animals by late 1999. Above average rainfall during 1996-1999 and no apparent predation suggests caution in describing the translocation as a success. Ongoing monitoring is critical, because it A uncertain ho v the population will cope with drought and inevitable predation events, and whether the population will expand and persist outside of limited preferred habitat. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Liveweight gains of steers at different stocking rates on monospecific Gatton panic and Estrella grass pastures in the Chaco Central region of Paraguay

A grazing trial to study the effect of stocking rate on animal production and botanical composition of Gallon panic (Panicum maximum) and Estrella grass (Cynodon nlemfuensis) was conducted in the central region of the Paraguayan Chaco between 1992 and 1998. The experiment included 6 stocking rates (0.5, 0.8. 1.1, 1.4. 1.7 and 2.0 AU/ha) on individual 4-ha paddocks. The pasture treatments were continuously grazed by yearling steers. replaced annually, over a 4-year grazing period. No fertiliser was used. Botanical composition was recorded annually in autumn from 1992 to 1998 while animal production data were recorded monthly from 1992 to 1996. Relationships between animal productivity and stocking rates were determined by regression analysis. Gallon panic produced greater liveweight gains per head than Estrella grass at low and intermediate stocking rates. However, the slope of the linear relationship between liveweight gain per head and stocking rate increased each year in Gallon panic indicating that the productivity of this grass progressively declined at higher stocking rates over the period of observation. Estrella grass showed less sensitivity to stocking rate but was affected severely by periods of low rainfall.