Growing at the production frontier. European aggregate growth, 1870-1914

The view of a 1870-1913 expanding European economy providing increasing welfare to everybody has been challenged by many, then and now. We focus on the amazing growth that was experienced, its diffusion and its sources, in the context of the permanent competition among European nation states. During 1870-193 the globalized European economy reached a silver age . GDP growth was quite rapid (2.15% per annum) and diffused all over Europe. Even discounting the high rates of population growth (1.06%), per capita growth was left at a respectable 1.08%. Income per capita was rising in every country, and the rates of improvement were quite similar. This was a major achievement after two generations of highly localized growth, both geographically and socially. Growth was based on the increased use of labour and capital, but a good part of growth (73 per cent for the weighted average of the best documented European countries) came out of total factor productivity efficiency gains resulting from not well specified ultimate sources of growth. This proportion suggests that the European economy was growing at full capacity at its production frontier. It would have been very difficult to improve its performance. Within Europe, convergence was limited, and it only was in motion after 1900. What happened was more the end of the era of big divergence rather than an era of convergence.

The network origins of aggregate fluctuations

This paper argues that in the presence of intersectoral input-output linkages, microeconomicidiosyncratic shocks may lead to aggregate fluctuations. In particular, itshows that, as the economy becomes more disaggregated, the rate at which aggregatevolatility decays is determined by the structure of the network capturing such linkages.Our main results provide a characterization of this relationship in terms of the importanceof different sectors as suppliers to their immediate customers as well as theirrole as indirect suppliers to chains of downstream sectors. Such higher-order interconnectionscapture the possibility of "cascade effects" whereby productivity shocks to asector propagate not only to its immediate downstream customers, but also indirectlyto the rest of the economy. Our results highlight that sizable aggregate volatility isobtained from sectoral idiosyncratic shocks only if there exists significant asymmetryin the roles that sectors play as suppliers to others, and that the "sparseness" of theinput-output matrix is unrelated to the nature of aggregate fluctuations.

Aggregate fluctuations and the network structure of intersectoral trade

This paper analyzes the flow of intermediate inputs across sectors by adopting a network perspective on sectoral interactions. I apply these tools to show how fluctuationsin aggregate economic activity can be obtained from independent shocks to individualsectors. First, I characterize the network structure of input trade in the U.S. On thedemand side, a typical sector relies on a small number of key inputs and sectors arehomogeneous in this respect. However, in their role as input-suppliers sectors do differ:many specialized input suppliers coexist alongside general purpose sectors functioningas hubs to the economy. I then develop a model of intersectoral linkages that can reproduce these connectivity features. In a standard multisector setup, I use this modelto provide analytical expressions linking aggregate volatility to the network structureof input trade. I show that the presence of sectoral hubs - by coupling productiondecisions across sectors - leads to fluctuations in aggregates.

Understanding Insurance Company Financial Stability Ratings, January 2007

Choosing a financially strong insurance company is important when buying health insurance. You want the company to still be in business when you have claims, which can be 20 to 30 years from now. Insurance companies selling insurance in Iowa have met the minimum legal standards to be licensed by the State of Iowa Insurance Division. This licensure doesn’t mean the company has a high financial stability rating. Several independent rating agencies evaluate the financial stability of insurance companies. The rating for an individual insurance company is an opinion as to its financial strength and ability to pay claims in the future. When evaluating a company, a rating agency may consider a company's balance sheet strength, operating performance and business management and strategies.

Functional avidity of tumor antigen-specific CTL recognition directly correlates with the stability of MHC/peptide multimer binding to TCR.

Avidity of Ag recognition by tumor-specific T cells is one of the main parameters that determines the potency of a tumor rejection Ag. In this study we show that the relative efficiency of staining of tumor Ag-specific T lymphocytes with the corresponding fluorescent MHC class I/peptide multimeric complexes can considerably vary with staining conditions and does not necessarily correlate with avidity of Ag recognition. Instead, we found a clear correlation between avidity of Ag recognition and the stability of MHC class I/peptide multimeric complexes interaction with TCR as measured in dissociation kinetic experiments. These findings are relevant for both identification and isolation of tumor-reactive CTL.

Price increase and stability with new entries in Cournot markets

It is widely accepted in the literature about the classicalCournot oligopoly model that the loss of quasi competitiveness is linked,in the long run as new firms enter the market, to instability of the equilibrium. In this paper, though, we present a model in which a stableunique symmetric equilibrium is reached for any number of oligopolistsas industry price increases with each new entry. Consequently, the suspicion that non quasi competitiveness implies, in the long run, instabilityis proved false.

On the impact of fundamentals, liquidity and coordination on market stability

We develop a coordination game to model interactions betweenfundamentals and liquidity during unstable periods in financial markets.We then propose a flexible econometric framework for estimationof the model and analysis of its quantitative implications. The specificempirical application is carry trades in the yen dollar market, includingthe turmoil of 1998. We find a generally very deep market, withlow information disparities amongst agents. We observe occasionallyepisodes of market fragility, or turmoil with up by the escalator, downby the elevator patterns in prices. The key role of strategic behaviorin the econometric model is also confirmed.

Designing institutions for financial stability: Regulation and supervision by objective for the Euro area

In this paper, we discuss pros and cons ofdifferent models for financial market regulationand supervision and we present a proposal forthe re-organisation of regulatory and supervisoryagencies in the Euro Area. Our arguments areconsistent with both new theories and effectivebehaviour of financial intermediaries inindustrialized countries. Our proposed architecturefor financial market regulation is based on theassignment of different objectives or "finalities"to different authorities, both at the domesticand the European level. According to thisperspective, the three objectives of supervision- microeconomic stability, investor protectionand proper behaviour, efficiency and competition- should be assigned to three distinct Europeanauthorities, each one at the centre of a Europeansystem of financial regulators and supervisorsspecialized in overseeing the entire financialmarket with respect to a single regulatoryobjective and regardless of the subjective natureof the intermediaries. Each system should bestructured and organized similarly to the EuropeanSystem of Central Banks and work in connectionwith the central bank which would remain theinstitution responsible for price and macroeconomicstability. We suggest a plausible path to buildour 4-peak regulatory architecture in the Euro area.

The serine-rich N-terminal region of Arabidopsis phytochrome A is required for protein stability.

Deletion or substitution of the serine-rich N-terminal stretch of grass phytochrome A (phyA) has repeatedly been shown to yield a hyperactive photoreceptor when expressed under the control of a constitutive promoter in transgenic tobacco or Arabidopsis seedlings retaining their native phyA. These observations have lead to the proposal that the serine-rich region is involved in negative regulation of phyA signaling. To re-evaluate this conclusion in a more physiological context we produced transgenic Arabidopsis seedlings of the phyA-null background expressing Arabidopsis PHYA deleted in the sequence corresponding to amino acids 6-12, under the control of the native PHYA promoter. Compared to the transgenic seedlings expressing wild-type phyA, the seedlings bearing the mutated phyA showed normal responses to pulses of far-red (FR) light and impaired responses to continuous FR light. In yeast two-hybrid experiments, deleted phyA interacted normally with FHY1 and FHL, which are required for phyA accumulation in the nucleus. Immunoblot analysis showed reduced stability of deleted phyA under continuous red or FR light. The reduced physiological activity can therefore be accounted for by the enhanced destruction of the mutated phyA. These findings do not support the involvement of the serine-rich region in negative regulation but they are consistent with a recent report suggesting that phyA turnover is regulated by phosphorylation.

Fatty acids regulate Thy-1 antigen mRNA stability in T lymphocyte precursors.

In this study, we report the effect of fatty acids on the Thy-1 antigen mRNA decay. Low serum and synthetic medium culture conditions were used to demonstrate that fatty acids, which are important metabolites involved as second messengers in signal transduction, also influence the steady-state mRNA level. Detailed analysis demonstrated that polyunsaturated lipids attached to bovine serum albumin, such as linoleic, linolenic, and arachidonic acids, modulate gene expression specifically in the S1A T lymphoma cell line by inducing a 3-5-fold increase in the steady-state Thy-1 mRNA level, concomitant with a twofold increase in cell surface expression. A similar modulation was observed in the immature CD4-CD8- T cell precursors but not in mature thymocytes. Nuclear run-on and transfection experiments indicated that the observed Thy-1 mRNA level is post-transcriptionally regulated and that the presence of the coding region is sufficient for this adaptive response. A mechanism without a requirement for protein kinase C activation, but involving Ca2+ entry, could account for this difference in Thy-1 mRNA stability.

Responsiveness of astrocytes in serum-free aggregate cultures to epidermal growth factor: dependence on the cell cycle and the epidermal growth factor concentration.

Serum-free aggregating cell cultures of fetal rat telencephalon treated with low doses (0.5 nM) of epidermal growth factor (EGF) showed a small, transient increase in DNA synthesis but no significant changes in total DNA and protein content. By contrast, treatment with high doses (13 nM) of EGF caused a marked stimulation of DNA synthesis as well as a net increase in DNA and protein content. The expression of the astrocyte-specific enzyme, glutamine synthetase, was greatly enhanced both at low and at high EGF concentrations. These results suggest that at low concentration EGF stimulates exclusively the differentiation of astrocytes, whereas at high concentration, EGF has also a mitogenic effect. Nonproliferating astrocytes in cultures treated with 0.4 microM 1-beta-D-arabinofuranosyl-cytosine were refractory to EGF treatment, indicating that their responsiveness to EGF is cell cycle-dependent. Binding studies using a crude membrane fraction of 5-day cultures showed a homogeneous population of EGF binding sites (Kd approximately equal to 2.6 nM). Specific EGF binding sites were found also in non-proliferating (and nonresponsive) cultures, although they showed slightly reduced affinity and binding capacity. This finding suggests that the cell cycle-dependent control of astroglial responsiveness to EGF does not occur at the receptor level. However, it was found that the specific EGF binding sites disappear with progressive cellular differentiation.

Engineered aprotinin for improved stability of fibrin biomaterials.

Fibrin has been long used clinically for hemostasis and sealing, yet extension of use in other applications has been limited due to its relatively rapid resorption in vivo, even with addition of aprotinin or other protease inhibitors. We report an engineered aprotinin variant that can be immobilized within fibrin and thus provide extended longevity. When recombinantly fused to a transglutaminase substrate domain from α(2)-plasmin inhibitor (α(2)PI(1-8)), the resulting variant, aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8), was covalently crosslinked into fibrin matrices during normal thrombin/factor XIIIa-mediated polymerization. Challenge with physiological plasmin concentrations revealed that aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8)-containing matrices retained 78% of their mass after 3 wk, whereas matrices containing wild type (WT) aprotinin degraded completely within 1 wk. Plasmin challenge of commercial sealants Omrixil and Tisseel, supplemented with aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8) or WT aprotinin, showed extended longevity as well. When seeded with human dermal fibroblasts, aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8)-supplemented matrices supported cell growth for at least 33% longer than those containing WT aprotinin. Subcutaneously implanted matrices containing aprotinin-α(2)PI(1-8) were detectable in mice for more than twice as long as those containing WT aprotinin. We conclude that our engineered recombinant aprotinin variant can confer extended longevity to fibrin matrices more effectively than WT aprotinin in vitro and in vivo.