Demand expectations and the timing of stimulus policies

This paper proposes a simple macroeconomic model with staggered investment decisions. The model captures the dynamic coordination problem arising from demand externalities and fixed costs of investment. In times of low economic activity, a firm faces low demand and hence has less incentives for investing, which reinforces firms’ expectations of low demand. In the unique equilibrium of the model, demand expectations are pinned down by fundamentals and history. Owing to the beliefs that arise in equilibrium, there is no special reason for stimulus at times of low economic activity.

How to manage macroeconomic policies to foster growth and employment and prevent financial and external crises

My presentation focuses on the implementation of a macroeconomic policy regime which, I believe, is capable of simultaneously attaining several targets, including the promotion of growth and employment and the prevention of external and financial crises.

Capital misallocation and mitigating policies

The purpose of this work is to study the role for government in mitigating capital misallocation. We develop an entrepreneurship model in which heterogeneous producers face collateral constraints on production, but can hedge idiosyncratic shocks. Hedging works as a tool for reallocating resources to states in which they are more productively deployed, and can alleviate the effect of the financial frictions and be a counteracting force to capital misallocation. Government incentives to hedging improve workers’ welfare in steady state through an increase in TFP and wages. The intervention leads to a reduction in the rate of return of entrepreneurs and an increase in wealth dispersion. These two effects cause entrepreneurial welfare to decrease.

Human resource policies in public education: empirical evidences for Brazil

Esta tese traz três exercícios empíricos sobre questões de recursos humanos em escolas públicas brasileiras, aproveitando-se de uma ampla política implantada na rede estadual de São Paulo. Esta política aumenta os salários para os professores que trabalham em escolas urbanas pobres e sua regra de alocação, baseada em um corte arbitrário em um índice socioeconômico, permite a identificação de impactos causais. Em resumo, os três artigos apontam que políticas de subsídios são capazes de, de fato, manter professores nas escolas mais pobres e este efeito, por sua vez, melhora o desempenho acadêmico dos alunos. Além disso, concluímos também que esta política também reduz o absenteísmo dos professores. No entanto, como consequência do desenho dessa política, não há evidências de que o subsídio melhora o perfil dos professores alocados nessas escolas. O primeiro artigo avalia os impactos dessa política sobre a rotatividade dos professores. Concluímos que a compensação salarial reduziu a taxa de rotatividade em 7,2 pontos percentuais, o que significa uma queda de 15% sobre a média pré-tratamento. Em um modelo em forma reduzida, encontramos também evidências de que esta política pode impactar positivamente o desempenho dos alunos. O segundo artigo analisa os impactos sobre a aprendizagem dos alunos, com foco em três possíveis mecanismos: i) a rotatividade; ii) a qualidade dos professores; iii) o aumento do salário. As estimativas mostram que o único canal através do qual esta política compensatória afeta o desempenho dos alunos é a redução da rotatividade dos professores. Ao reduzir taxa de volume de negócios em um desvio-padrão, a política reduziu a proporção de alunos de baixo desempenho em cerca de meio desvio-padrão. O terceiro artigo avalia como a diferenciação salarial criada por esta política afeta absenteísmo dos professores. Os resultados mostram que, após controlar efeitos fixos de professores e escolas, pagar um salário mais elevado (em média 26% a mais) provoca uma queda de 8-22% nas faltas dos professores. Ausências que não levam a desconto de salário, como por licenças médicas, não respondem à diferenciação salarial e o impacto é maior para os professores que recebem maior incentivo.

Leadership of portuguese community schools in the East Coast of the United States and the public policies of education: a multiple case studies

The Portuguese community schools of the United States located in the areas of larger Portuguese population concentration are social organizations that come materializing throughout decades the designs of the educative policies of the Portuguese government in relation to the expansion and preservation of the language, the culture and the history of Portugal. These designs of the educative policies are enrolled in the Constitution of the Republic (1976), in the Basic Law of Educative System (1986) and, over all, in the successive legislative norms (Decree-laws and ordinances) of the successive governments. Portuguese community schools in the United States are structuralized in analogous way to schools of the Portuguese geographic space. For this qualitative study (multiple case), four directors of Portuguese schools of the East Coast of the United States were interviewed; two schools are in the state of Rhode Island and the other two are in the state of Massachusetts. Also, it was administered the questionnaire on practices of leadership “Leadership Practices Inventory” (LPI) of Kouzes and Posner (2002) to collect additional data about practices of leadership on the directors of the schools. The LPI evaluates practices of leadership classifying them in five domains: (a) Model the way; (b) Inspire a shared vision; (c) Challenge the process; (d) Enable others to act; and, (e) Encourage the heart. Results of this qualitative research indicate that the Portuguese Government has not had an educative policy stimulant, coherent and consistent of support, incentive, maintenance and diffusion of the Portuguese language and culture and the directors of the studied schools they have a proactive and serving leadership style in conducting the management of Portuguese community schools. The five practices of leadership are highly practiced by the directors of the studied schools above all the practices “Enable others to act” and “Encourage the heart”.

Agrofuel policies in Brazil: paradigmatic and territorial disputes

The expansion of agrofuel crops challenges us to rethink policies, territories, human agency, and the paradigms used to explain them. In Brazil, policies supporting the expansion of agrofuel crops and the intensification of agrofuel production are reorganising rural land use and undermining some forms of participation in the capitalist and family modes of production. To reflect on this new reality, we study peasant movement reactions, proposals, and territorial disputes with agribusiness. Using the Pontal do Paranapanema region of São Paulo state as a case in point, the paper analyses territorial disputes between expanding sugarcane plantations and agrarian reform settlements as well as biodiesel production projects developed by the Landless Workers Movement (MST) and the Western São Paulo Federation of Settlement and Family Farmer Associations (FAAFOP). It also analyses the agrofuel policies of other peasant organisations, including Via Campesina. The production of agrofuels has changed the processes of land acquisition and use by both agribusiness and the peasantry, provoking new insights into the nature of territorial conflicts and thereby stimulating the need to revise perspectives on the agrarian question in Brazil.

Affective disorders, hospital admissions, and seasonal variation of mania in a subtropical area, southern hemisphere

Hospital admissions (n = 15,450) to a state psychiatric hospital in Botucatu, São Paulo State, Brazil, over a 10-year period (1982-1991) were reviewed. 157 (1%) patients received a probable diagnosis of affective disorder according to DSM-III-R criteria. Among them, 46% had been diagnosed by the staff psychiatrists, and their diagnoses were sustained by the researchers, whereas 54% were diagnosed only by one of the researchers (F.K.C.). These last patients had previously received a diagnosis of paranoid schizophrenia or unspecified psychosis (ICD-9). Most of the patients with affective disorders were bipolar: 72 and 8%, respectively, presented manic and depressive episodes. Thus, only 20% received a diagnosis of major depression. A seasonal pattern in hospital admission was observed only for mania in women, their episodes occurring more often (p < 0.02) in spring and summer. No significant seasonal pattern in hospital admission for depression was found.

Anti-poverty policies in Brazil: Reviewing the past ten years

This article reviews the main anti-poverty policies implemented in Brazil from the early 1990s to the early 2000s. These include focused and universal policies - such as education and health care - as well as the rural development, a 'middle ground' policy. Though the inter-municipal consortium, a new institutional arrangement gathering municipalities together, has emerged as a promising policy implementation tool, anti-poverty policies have faced implementation difficulties. Lack of coordination between different programs, even within the same policy area, has impaired their effectiveness. As a consequence, compensatory programs, based on monetary transfers to poor families, which face fewer implementation problems, have become the dominant type of anti-poverty policies in Brazil. Despite these shortcomings, a small Brazilian state, Santa Catarina, was able to reduce by 46 percent the number of individuals living in poverty in just ten years. This is a sign that fighting poverty can, after all, be a feasible endeavor. © 2004 IIAS, SAGE Publications (London, Thousand Oaks, CA and New Delhi).

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2008-2009: Policies for creating quality jobs

Includes bibliography

Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2009-2010: The distributive impact of public policies

Includes bibliography

Economic survey of Latin America and the Caribbean 2012: policies for an adverse international economy

Includes bibliography

Política cambiaria y los procesos de renegociación de la deuda externa = Exchange policies and the process of renegotiation

Incluye Bibliografía

Latin American Economic Outlook 2013: SMEs policies for structural change

Includes bibliography

Export growth in Latin America: policies and performance

Includes bibliography