Forecasting migration between the EU, V4 and Eastern Europe. Impact of visa abolition. OSW Report, July 2014

This book is the result of one year of solid work among a multinational research team assembled from seven states (Poland, Czechia, Hungary, Slovakia, Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova). It aims at a detailed analysis of migration patterns and migration forecasts from Ukraine, Belarus and Moldova to the EU/V4. In particular, the nexus between EU visa policy and migration dynamics as well as the impact of economic, political and institutional factors on migration from Eastern Europe have been investigated. The importance of migration policy must be stressed here. Together with demand for the foreign labour force (labour market needs, level of wages, existing work opportunities) and migration networks (including ethnic links), migration policy has a powerful influence on the scale, directions and characteristics of human flows.

Прогноз міграції між ЄС, країнами Вишеградської четвірки та Східною Європою: наслідки скасування візового режиму. OSW 2014. = Forecasting Migration between the EU, Visegrad Four and Eastern Europe: consequences of the abolition of the visa regime. OSW Report, June 2014

Ні абстрактний.

Election Forecasting under Opaque Conditions

Election forecasting models assume retrospective economic voting and clear mechanisms of accountability. Previous research indeed indicates that incumbent political parties are being held accountable for the state of the economy. In this article we develop a ‘hard case’ for the assumptions of election forecasting models. Belgium is a multiparty system with perennial coalition governments. Furthermore, Belgium has two completely segregated party systems (Dutch and French language). Since the prime minister during the period 1974-2011 has always been a Dutch language politician, French language voters could not even vote for the prime minister, so this cognitive shortcut to establish political accountability is not available. Results of an analysis for the French speaking parties (1981-2010) show that even in these conditions of opaque accountability, retrospective economic voting occurs as election results respond to indicators with regard to GDP and unemployment levels. Party membership figures can be used to model the popularity function in election forecasting.

Colección de arículos

Mode of access: Internet.

The role of anticipations and plans in economic behavior and their use in economic analysis and forecasting /

Bibliography: p. 158-166.

Forecasting trade and the merchant fleet. Final report.

Maritime Administration, Washington, D.C.

Two Theban queens, Nefert-ari and Ty-ti, and their tomba,

Mode of access: Internet.

Accident risk forecasting; a bibliography.

Mode of access: Internet.

Raskolʹnichʹi di͡ela XVIII stoli͡etīi͡a : izvlechennyi͡a iz di͡el Preobrazhenskago prikaza i taĭnoĭ rozysknykh di͡el Kant͡seli͡arīi.

Mode of access: Internet.

Aggregate auto travel forecasting: state of the art and suggestions for future research. Final report.

Transportation Department, Office of the Assistant Secretary for Systems Development and Technology, Washington, D.C.