Diet changes of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in Alaska between 1980 and 1995

The diet of Pacific cod (Gadus macrocephalus) in the area of Pavlof Bay, Alaska, was studied in the early 1980s by Albers and Anderson (1985). They found that the dominant prey species were forage species like pandalid shrimp, capelin (Mallotus villosus), and walleye pollock (Theragra chalcogramma). The shrimp fishery in Pavlof Bay began in 1968 and closed in 1980 because of low shrimp abundance (Ruccio and Worton1). Survey data indicate that, during the period between 1972 and 1997, the abundance of forage species such as pandalid shrimp and capelin declined and higher trophic-level groundfish such as Pacific cod increased. There is a general recognition that a long-term ocean climate shift in the Gulf of Alaska has been partially responsible for the observed reorganization of the community structure (Anderson and Piatt, 1999).

Proceedings of the Tenth Annual Pacific Climate (PACLIM) Workshop, Asilomar, California - April 4-7, 1993 [appendices]

The appendices include the workshop agenda, a list of poster presentations, and a list of attendees.

Introduction

Nearly 100 participants attended the eleventh annual PACLIM workshop at the Asilomar Conference Center in Pacific Grove, California, on April 19-22, 1994. A one-day theme session of ten 45-minute talks was followed by sessions of 20-minute presentations. In addition, 19 presenters gave 1- to 2-minute introductions to their posters, which were displayed throughout the meeting.

Inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere: evidence from Tasmanian tree rings over the past three millennia

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The characterization of inter-decadal climate variability in the Southern Hemisphere is severely constrained by the shortness of the instrumental climate records. To help relieve this constraint, we have developed and analyzed a reconstruction of warm-season (November-April) temperatures from Tasmanian tree rings that now extends back to 800 BC. A detailed analysis of this reconstruction in the time and frequency domains indicates that much of the inter-decadal variability is principally confined to four frequency bands with mean periods of 31, 57, 77, and 200 years. ... In so doing, we show how a future greenhouse warming signal over Tasmania could be masked by these natural oscillations unless they are taken into account.

Multivariate climate reconstruction for the last 14,000 years in southernmost South America

Comparison between past changes in pollen assemblages and stable isotope ratios (deuterium and carbon) analyzed in the same peat core from Tierra del Fuego at latitude 55°S permitted identification of the relative contribution of precipitation versus temperature responsible for the respective change. Major steps in the sequence of paleoenvironmental changes, such as at 12700, 9000, 5000, and 4000 years ago are apparently related only to increase in precipitation, reflecting the latitudinal location and intensity of the westerly storm tracks. On the other hand, high paleoenvironmental variability, which is characteristic for the late-glacial and the latest Holocene, is related to temperature variability, which affects the relative moisture content. Comparison with other paleoenvironmental records suggests that the late-glacial temperature variability is probably related to variability in the extent of Antarctic sea-ice, which in turn appears to be related to the intensity of Atlantic deep-water circulation. Temperature variability during the latest Holocene, on the other hand, is probably related to the dynamics of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation.

Volcanic activity and global change: probable short-term and possible long-term linkages

Article reviews annual to decadal climate response to volcanism; long-term climatic response to volcanism; and recent results from ocean drilling in the North Pacific.

An overview of decadal to century time-scale variability in the climate system

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Time scales extracted from high-resolution proxy records and observations indicate that the spectrum of climate variability exhibits significant power in the range of decades to centuries superimposed on a red-noise continuum. The classical view of climate variability is based on the concept that observed fluctuations have their origin in periodic forcings on the same time scale. ... Instead, it is proposed that these fluctuations are linked to interactions within and between the different climate system components.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Dynamical structure in paleoclimate data

Deterministic chaos in dynamical systems offers a new paradigm for understanding irregular fluctuations. The theory of chaotic dynamical systems includes methods that can test whether any given set of time series data, such as paleoclimate proxy data, are consistent with a deterministic interpretation. Paleoclimate data with annual resolution and absolute dating provide multiple channels of concurrent time series; these multiple time series can be treated as potential phase space coordinates to test whether interannual climate variability is deterministic. Dynamical structure tests which take advantage of such multichannel data are proposed and illustrated by application to a simple synthetic model of chaos, and to two paleoclimate proxy data series.

Modeling North Pacific temperature and pressure changes from coastal tree-ring chronologies

Climate modeling using coastal tree-ring chronologies has yielded the first summer temperature reconstructions for coastal stations along the Gulf of Alaska and the Pacific Northwest. These land temperature reconstructions are strongly correlated with nearby sea surface temperatures, indicating large-scale ocean-atmospheric influences. Significant progress has also been made in modeling winter land temperatures and sea surface temperatures from coastal and shipboard stations. In addition to temperature, the pressure variability center over the central North Pacific Ocean (PAC), which is related to the strength and location of the Aleutian Low pressure system, could be extended using coastal tree rings.

Reconstruction of aridity for the Sierra de la Laguna, Baja California Sur, Mexico

A well-documented history of past climatic conditions is needed to understand and resolve some ecological problems, but the existing climatological records are too short to detect long-term climatic variability and changes. Some trees, such as pines, produce annual tree rings with different widths depending on prevailing environmental conditions, such as climate. Tree-ring analysis of long-lived trees can be used to estimate past variations in climate. The principal aim of this study is to reconstruct aridity for the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, by means of dendroclimatologic techniques.

South American streamflow and the extreme phases of the Southern Oscillation

This study investigates the extent of the affect [sic] of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation on South American streamflow. The response of South American precipitation and temperature to the extreme phases of ENSO (El Niño and La Niña events) is well documented; but the response of South American hydrology has been barely studied. Such paucity of research contrasts sharply with that available on the response of North American streamflow to ENSO events.

Sea surface temperature and paleo-El Niño events in Santa Barbara Basin, AD 1841-1941

Like pages of a "natural coastal diary", successive layers of anoxic varved sediment in the central Santa Barbara Basin have been used by paleoceanographers to reconstruct aspects of past coastal climate. This report focuses on the end of the "Little Ice Age" (15th to 19th century) and on the beginning of this century, a period known to encompass extreme climate excursions and weather events in the Santa Barbara Basin and other parts of Southern California. El Niño events are known to disrupt Southern California's coastal ecosystems and to cause anomalous weather conditions, but El Niño events in Southern California before 1990 have been largely undocumented.