Statistical Methods and the Meaning of Probabilities. A Philosopher Looks at Statistics

The talk starts out with a short introduction to the philosophy of probability. I highlight the need to interpret probabilities in the sciences and motivate objectivist accounts of probabilities. Very roughly, according to such accounts, ascriptions of probabilities have truth-conditions that are independent of personal interests and needs. But objectivist accounts are pointless if they do not provide an objectivist epistemology, i.e., if they do not determine well-defined methods to support or falsify claims about probabilities. In the rest of the talk I examine recent philosophical proposals for an objectivist methodology. Most of them take up ideas well-known from statistics. I nevertheless find some proposals incompatible with objectivist aspirations.

Therapeutic drug monitoring of once daily aminoglycoside dosing: comparison of two methods and investigation of the optimal blood sampling strategy.

PURPOSE Therapeutic drug monitoring of patients receiving once daily aminoglycoside therapy can be performed using pharmacokinetic (PK) formulas or Bayesian calculations. While these methods produced comparable results, their performance has never been checked against full PK profiles. We performed a PK study in order to compare both methods and to determine the best time-points to estimate AUC0-24 and peak concentrations (C max). METHODS We obtained full PK profiles in 14 patients receiving a once daily aminoglycoside therapy. PK parameters were calculated with PKSolver using non-compartmental methods. The calculated PK parameters were then compared with parameters estimated using an algorithm based on two serum concentrations (two-point method) or the software TCIWorks (Bayesian method). RESULTS For tobramycin and gentamicin, AUC0-24 and C max could be reliably estimated using a first serum concentration obtained at 1 h and a second one between 8 and 10 h after start of the infusion. The two-point and the Bayesian method produced similar results. For amikacin, AUC0-24 could reliably be estimated by both methods. C max was underestimated by 10-20% by the two-point method and by up to 30% with a large variation by the Bayesian method. CONCLUSIONS The ideal time-points for therapeutic drug monitoring of once daily administered aminoglycosides are 1 h after start of a 30-min infusion for the first time-point and 8-10 h after start of the infusion for the second time-point. Duration of the infusion and accurate registration of the time-points of blood drawing are essential for obtaining precise predictions.

Axial suspension test to assess pre-operative spinal flexibility in patients with adolescent idiopathic scoliosis.

INTRODUCTION An accurate description of the biomechanical behavior of the spine is crucial for the planning of scoliotic surgical correction as well as for the understanding of degenerative spine disorders. The current clinical assessments of spinal mechanics such as side-bending or fulcrum-bending tests rely on the displacement of the spine observed during motion of the patient. Since these tests focused solely on the spinal kinematics without considering mechanical loads, no quantification of the mechanical flexibility of the spine can be provided. METHODS A spinal suspension test (SST) has been developed to simultaneously monitor the force applied on the spine and the induced vertebral displacements. The system relies on cervical elevation of the patient and orthogonal radiographic images are used to measure the position of the vertebras. The system has been used to quantify the spinal flexibility on five AIS patients. RESULTS Based on the SST, the overall spinal flexibility varied between 0.3 °/Nm for the patient with the stiffer curve and 2 °/Nm for the less rigid curve. A linear correlation was observed between the overall spinal flexibility and the change in Cobb angle. In addition, the segmental flexibility calculated for five segments around the apex was 0.13 ± 0.07 °/Nm, which is similar to intra-operative stiffness measurements previously published. CONCLUSIONS In summary, the SST seems suitable to provide pre-operative information on the complex functional behavior and stiffness of spinal segments under physiological loading conditions. Such tools will become increasingly important in the future due to the ever-increasing complexity of the surgical instrumentation and procedures.

Assessment of carotid calcifications on panoramic radiographs in relation to other used methods and relationship to periodontitis and stroke: a literature review

OBJECTIVES To assess the literature on carotid calcifications defined from panoramic radiographs (PMX) and concurrent diagnosis of stroke and periodontitis. MATERIALS AND METHODS A literature search screening for publications using search terms such as PMX and carotid calcification, stroke and periodontitis was performed in November 2012. RESULTS A total of 189 articles were retrieved, among which 30 were included in the review. The sensitivity for PMX findings of carotid calcifications (CC) compared to a diagnosis by Doppler sonography varied between 31.1-100%. The specificity for PMX findings of carotid calcifications compared to a diagnosis by Doppler sonography varied between 21.4-87.5%. Individuals with CC findings from PMX have more periodontitis and risk for stroke. CONCLUSIONS There is a shortage of well-designed studies in older dentate individuals assessing the associations between periodontitis and radiographic evidence of CC and in relation to stroke or other cardiovascular diseases. STATEMENT OF CLINICAL RELEVANCE: Carotid calcifications are prevalent in patients with periodontitis and such individuals may have an increased risk for stroke. The absence of signs of carotid calcification on panoramic radiographs is indicative of no calcification of carotid arteries.

Complexity and non-linearity in earth surface processes - concepts, methods and applications

Complexity has long been recognized and is increasingly becoming mainstream in geomorphology. However, the relative novelty of various concepts and techniques associated to it means that ambiguity continues to surround complexity. In this commentary, we present and discuss a variety of recent contributions that have the potential to help clarify issues and advance the use of complexity in geomorphology.

Progression of Liver Fibrosis in HIV/HCV Co-Infection: A Comparison between Non-Invasive Assessment Methods and Liver Biopsy.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the diagnostic performance of seven non-invasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis and to assess fibrosis progression over time in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. METHODS Transient elastography (TE) and six blood tests were compared to histopathological fibrosis stage (METAVIR). Participants were followed over three years with NITs at yearly intervals. RESULTS Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for significant fibrosis (> = F2) in 105 participants was highest for TE (0.85), followed by FIB-4 (0.77), ELF-Test (0.77), APRI (0.76), Fibrotest (0.75), hyaluronic acid (0.70), and Hepascore (0.68). AUROC for cirrhosis (F4) was 0.97 for TE followed by FIB-4 (0.91), APRI (0.89), Fibrotest (0.84), Hepascore (0.82), ELF-Test (0.82), and hyaluronic acid (0.79). A three year follow-up was completed by 87 participants, all on antiretroviral therapy and in 20 patients who completed HCV treatment (9 with sustained virologic response). TE, APRI and Fibrotest did not significantly change during follow-up. There was weak evidence for an increase of FIB-4 (mean increase: 0.22, p = 0.07). 42 participants had a second liver biopsy: Among 38 participants with F0-F3 at baseline, 10 were progessors (1-stage increase in fibrosis, 8 participants; 2-stage, 1; 3-stage, 1). Among progressors, mean increase in TE was 3.35 kPa, in APRI 0.36, and in FIB-4 0.75. Fibrotest results did not change over 3 years. CONCLUSION TE was the best NIT for liver fibrosis staging in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. APRI-Score, FIB-4 Index, Fibrotest, and ELF-Test were less reliable. Routinely available APRI and FIB-4 performed as good as more expensive tests. NITs did not change significantly during a follow-up of three years, suggesting slow liver disease progression in a majority of HIV/HCV co-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy.

In vitro differentiation of mouse granulocytes. Programmed Cell Death: Methods and Protocols

Granulocytes are central players of the immune system and, once activated, a tightly controlled balance between effector functions and cell removal by apoptosis guarantees maximal host benefit with least possible collateral damage to healthy tissue. Granulocytes are end-differentiated cells that cannot be maintained in culture for prolonged times. Isolating primary granulocytes is inefficient and challenging when working with mice, and especially so for the lowly abundant eosinophil and basophils subtypes. Here we describe an in vitro protocol to massively expand mouse derived myeloid progenitors and to differentiate them ‘on demand’ and in large numbers into mature neutrophils or basophils.

Preoperative Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor imaging reduces surgical trauma and pancreatic tissue loss in insulinoma patients: a report of three cases

BACKGROUND Insulinomas are rare tumors, in the majority of cases best treated by surgical resection. Preoperative localization of insulinoma is challenging. The more precise the preoperative localization the less invasive and safer is the resection. The purpose of the study is to check the impact of a new technique to localize insulinoma on the surgical strategy. FINDINGS We present exact preoperative localization with Glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) imaging. This allows a more precise resection thereby reducing surgical access trauma, loss of healthy pancreatic tissue and increasing safety and quality of the surgical intervention. CONCLUSION With the help of precise preoperative localization of insulinoma with GLP-1R imaging the surgeon is able to minimize the amount of resected healthy pancreatic tissue. We hypothesize that GLP-1R imaging will become a preoperative diagnostic tool to be used for many patients scheduled for open or laparoscopic insulinoma resection.

Coping Methods and Meaning Making of Liberian Refugees in the Buduburam Refugee Camp of Ghana

The mental health of war-impacted individuals has been an issue of growing concern to many researchers and practitioners internationally (Miller, Kulkarni, & Kushner, 2006). According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees (2006a), Africans are disproportionately impacted by conflict-related displacement. To date, however, much of the research on the mental health of refugees has been based mostly on Western views of health and trauma. The current study is a mixed-methods investigation of stressors, coping strategies, and meaning making of Liberian refugees in the Buduburam Refugee Camp of Ghana. Results from the Brief COPE, focus groups, and semi-structured ethnographic interviews are discussed. Understanding stressors and coping among this population can contribute to culturally informed research and practice.

Illustrated Catalogue of Standard Surgical Instruments and Allied Lines

Section "A": Dissecting and Post-Mortem Instruments Diagnostic Instruments and Apparatus Microscopes and Microscopic Accessories Laboratory Apparatus and Glass Ware Apparatus for Blood and Urine Analysis Apparatus for Phlebotomy, Cupping and Leeching Apparatus for Infusion and Transfusion Syringes for Aspiration and Injection Osteological Preparations Section "B": Anaesthetic, General Operating, Osteotomy, Trepanning, Bullet, Pocket Case, Cautery, Ligatures, Sutures, Dressings, Etc. Section "B" continued Section "C": Eye, Ear, Nasal, Dermal, Oral, Tonsil, Tracheal, Laryngeal,Esophageal, Stomach, Intestinal, Gall Bladder Section "C": continued Section "D": Rectal, Phimosis, Prostatic, Vesical, Urethral, Ureteral, Instruments Section "E": Gynecic, Hysterectomy, Obstetrical, Instrument Satchels, Medicine Cases Section "F": Electric Cautery Transformers, Electro-Cautery Burners and Accessories, Electric Current Controllers, Electro-Diagnostic Outfits, Electrolysis Instruments Electro-Therapeutic Lamps, Faradic Batteries, Galvanic Batteries Section "G": Office Furniture, Office Sterilizing Apparatus, Hospital Supplies, Surgical Rubber Goods, Sick Room Utensils, Invalid Rolling Chairs, Invalid Supplies Section "H": Artificial Limbs, Deformity Apparatus, Fracture Apparatus, Splints, Splint Material, Elastic Hosiery, Abdominal Supporters, Crutches, Trusses, Suspensories, Etc. Index

Development of combined micro -preparation, separation, and mass spectrometry methods and application in the microdialysis study of neuropeptide metabolism

Two sets of mass spectrometry-based methods were developed specifically for the in vivo study of extracellular neuropeptide biochemistry. First, an integrated micro-concentration/desalting/matrix-addition device was constructed for matrix-assisted laser desorption ionization mass spectrometry (MALDI MS) to achieve attomole sensitivity for microdialysis samples. Second, capillary electrophoresis (CE) was incorporated into the above micro-liquid chromatography (LC) and MALDI MS system to provide two-dimensional separation and identification (i.e. electrophoretic mobility and molecular mass) for the analysis of complex mixtures. The latter technique includes two parts of instrumentation: (1) the coupling of a preconcentration LC column to the inlet of a CE capillary, and (2) the utilization of a matrix-precoated membrane target for continuous CE effluent deposition and for automatic MALDI MS analysis (imaging) of the CE track.^ Initial in vivo data reveals a carboxypeptidase A (CPA) activity in rat brain involved in extracellular neurotensin metabolism. Benzylsuccinic acid, a CPA inhibitor, inhibited neurotensin metabolite NT1-12 formation by 70%, while inhibitors of other major extracellular peptide metabolizing enzymes increased NT1-12 formation. CPA activity has not been observed in previous in vitro experiments. Next, the validity of the methodology was demonstrated in the detection and structural elucidation of an endogenous neuropeptide, (L)VV-hemorphin-7, in rat brain upon ATP stimulation. Finally, the combined micro-LC/CE/MALDI MS was used in the in vivo metabolic study of peptide E, a mu-selective opioid peptide with 25 amino acid residues. Profiles of 88 metabolites were obtained, their identity being determined by their mass-to-charge ratio and electrophoretic mobility. The results indicate that there are several primary cleavage sites in vivo for peptide E in the release of its enkephalin-containing fragments. ^

Simultaneous 3D object tracking and camera parameter estimation by Bayesian methods and transdimensional MCMC sampling

Multi-camera 3D tracking systems with overlapping cameras represent a powerful mean for scene analysis, as they potentially allow greater robustness than monocular systems and provide useful 3D information about object location and movement. However, their performance relies on accurately calibrated camera networks, which is not a realistic assumption in real surveillance environments. Here, we introduce a multi-camera system for tracking the 3D position of a varying number of objects and simultaneously refin-ing the calibration of the network of overlapping cameras. Therefore, we introduce a Bayesian framework that combines Particle Filtering for tracking with recursive Bayesian estimation methods by means of adapted transdimensional MCMC sampling. Addi-tionally, the system has been designed to work on simple motion detection masks, making it suitable for camera networks with low transmission capabilities. Tests show that our approach allows a successful performance even when starting from clearly inaccurate camera calibrations, which would ruin conventional approaches.