TIME VARYING LINEAR PREDICTION USING SPARSITY CONSTRAINTS

Time-varying linear prediction has been studied in the context of speech signals, in which the auto-regressive (AR) coefficients of the system function are modeled as a linear combination of a set of known bases. Traditionally, least squares minimization is used for the estimation of model parameters of the system. Motivated by the sparse nature of the excitation signal for voiced sounds, we explore the time-varying linear prediction modeling of speech signals using sparsity constraints. Parameter estimation is posed as a 0-norm minimization problem. The re-weighted 1-norm minimization technique is used to estimate the model parameters. We show that for sparsely excited time-varying systems, the formulation models the underlying system function better than the least squares error minimization approach. Evaluation with synthetic and real speech examples show that the estimated model parameters track the formant trajectories closer than the least squares approach.

Wind speed prediction using spatio-temporal covariance

High wind poses a number of hazards in different areas such as structural safety, aviation, and wind energy-where low wind speed is also a concern, pollutant transport, to name a few. Therefore, usage of a good prediction tool for wind speed is necessary in these areas. Like many other natural processes, behavior of wind is also associated with considerable uncertainties stemming from different sources. Therefore, to develop a reliable prediction tool for wind speed, these uncertainties should be taken into account. In this work, we propose a probabilistic framework for prediction of wind speed from measured spatio-temporal data. The framework is based on decompositions of spatio-temporal covariance and simulation using these decompositions. A novel simulation method based on a tensor decomposition is used here in this context. The proposed framework is composed of a set of four modules, and the modules have flexibility to accommodate further modifications. This framework is applied on measured data on wind speed in Ireland. Both short-and long-term predictions are addressed.

Holistic Measures for Evaluating Prediction Models in Smart Grids

The performance of prediction models is often based on ``abstract metrics'' that estimate the model's ability to limit residual errors between the observed and predicted values. However, meaningful evaluation and selection of prediction models for end-user domains requires holistic and application-sensitive performance measures. Inspired by energy consumption prediction models used in the emerging ``big data'' domain of Smart Power Grids, we propose a suite of performance measures to rationally compare models along the dimensions of scale independence, reliability, volatility and cost. We include both application independent and dependent measures, the latter parameterized to allow customization by domain experts to fit their scenario. While our measures are generalizable to other domains, we offer an empirical analysis using real energy use data for three Smart Grid applications: planning, customer education and demand response, which are relevant for energy sustainability. Our results underscore the value of the proposed measures to offer a deeper insight into models' behavior and their impact on real applications, which benefit both data mining researchers and practitioners.

Crystal Structure and Prediction

The notion of structure is central to the subject of chemistry. This review traces the development of the idea of crystal structure since the time when a crystal structure could be determined from a three-dimensional diffraction pattern and assesses the feasibility of computationally predicting an unknown crystal structure of a given molecule. Crystal structure prediction is of considerable fundamental and applied importance, and its successful execution is by no means a solved problem. The ease of crystal structure determination today has resulted in the availability of large numbers of crystal structures of higher-energy polymorphs and pseudopolymorphs. These structural libraries lead to the concept of a crystal structure landscape. A crystal structure of a compound may accordingly be taken as a data point in such a landscape.

Prediction of Land Surface Temperature under Cloudy Conditions using Microwave Remote Sensing and ANN

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important variable in climate, hydrologic, ecological, biophysical and biochemical studies (Mildrexler et al., 2011). The most effective way to obtain LST measurements is through satellites. Presently, LST from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS) sensor is applied in various fields due to its high spatial and temporal availability over the globe, but quite difficult to provide observations in cloudy conditions. This study evolves of prediction of LST under clear and cloudy conditions using microwave vegetation indices (MVIs), elevation, latitude, longitude and Julian day as inputs employing an artificial neural network (ANN) model. MVIs can be obtained even under cloudy condition, since microwave radiation has an ability to penetrate through clouds. In this study LST and MVIs data of the year 2010 for the Cauvery basin on a daily basis were obtained from MODIS and advanced microwave scanning radiometer (AMSR-E) sensors of aqua satellite respectively. Separate ANN models were trained and tested for the grid cells for which both LST and MVI were available. The performance of the models was evaluated based on standard evaluation measures. The best performing model was used to predict LST where MVIs were available. Results revealed that predictions of LST using ANN are in good agreement with the observed values. The ANN approach presented in this study promises to be useful for predicting LST using satellite observations even in cloudy conditions. (C) 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

Prediction of Queue Waiting Times for Metascheduling on Parallel Batch Systems

Prediction of queue waiting times of jobs submitted to production parallel batch systems is important to provide overall estimates to users and can also help meta-schedulers make scheduling decisions. In this work, we have developed a framework for predicting ranges of queue waiting times for jobs by employing multi-class classification of similar jobs in history. Our hierarchical prediction strategy first predicts the point wait time of a job using dynamic k-Nearest Neighbor (kNN) method. It then performs a multi-class classification using Support Vector Machines (SVMs) among all the classes of the jobs. The probabilities given by the SVM for the class predicted using k-NN and its neighboring classes are used to provide a set of ranges of predicted wait times with probabilities. We have used these predictions and probabilities in a meta-scheduling strategy that distributes jobs to different queues/sites in a multi-queue/grid environment for minimizing wait times of the jobs. Experiments with different production supercomputer job traces show that our prediction strategies can give correct predictions for about 77-87% of the jobs, and also result in about 12% improved accuracy when compared to the next best existing method. Experiments with our meta-scheduling strategy using different production and synthetic job traces for various system sizes, partitioning schemes and different workloads, show that the meta-scheduling strategy gives much improved performance when compared to existing scheduling policies by reducing the overall average queue waiting times of the jobs by about 47%.

Prediction of Fatigue Life in Plain Concrete Using Entropy Production

An energy approach within the framework of thermodynamics is used to model the fatigue process in plain concrete. Fatigue crack growth is an irreversible process associated with an irreversible entropy gain. A closed-form expression for entropy generated during fatigue in terms of energy dissipated is derived using principles of dimensional analysis and self-similarity. An increase in compliance is considered as a measure of damage accumulated during fatigue. The entropy at final fatigue failure is shown to be independent of loading and geometry and is proposed as a material property. A relationship between energy dissipated and number of cycles of fatigue loading is obtained. (C) 2015 American Society of Civil Engineers.

Probabilistic Prediction based Scheduling for Delay Sensitive Traffic in Internet of Things

This paper proposes a probabilistic prediction based approach for providing Quality of Service (QoS) to delay sensitive traffic for Internet of Things (IoT). A joint packet scheduling and dynamic bandwidth allocation scheme is proposed to provide service differentiation and preferential treatment to delay sensitive traffic. The scheduler focuses on reducing the waiting time of high priority delay sensitive services in the queue and simultaneously keeping the waiting time of other services within tolerable limits. The scheme uses the difference in probability of average queue length of high priority packets at previous cycle and current cycle to determine the probability of average weight required in the current cycle. This offers optimized bandwidth allocation to all the services by avoiding distribution of excess resources for high priority services and yet guaranteeing the services for it. The performance of the algorithm is investigated using MPEG-4 traffic traces under different system loading. The results show the improved performance with respect to waiting time for scheduling high priority packets and simultaneously keeping tolerable limits for waiting time and packet loss for other services. Crown Copyright (C) 2015 Published by Elsevier B.V.

PREDICTION OF TRANSITIONAL AND SEPARATED BOUNDARY LAYERS IN A COMPRESSOR CASCADE

Numerical simulations were performed of experiments from a cascade of stator blades at three low Reynolds numbers representative of flight conditions. Solutions were assessed by comparing blade surface pressures, velocity and turbulence intensity along blade normals at several stations along the suction surface and in the wake. At Re = 210,000 and 380,000 the laminar boundary layer over the suction surface separates and reattaches with significant turbulence fluctuations. A new 3-equation transition model, the k-k(L)-omega model, was used to simulate this flow. Predicted locations of the separation bubble, and profiles of velocity and turbulence fluctuations on blade-normal lines at various stations along the blade were found to be quite close to measurements. Suction surface pressure distributions were not as close at the lower Re. The solution with the standard k-omega SST model showed significant differences in all quantities. At Re = 640,000 transition occurs earlier and it is a turbulent boundary layer that separates near the trailing edge. The solution with the Reynolds stress model was found to be quite close to the experiment in the separated region also, unlike the k-omega SST solution. Three-dimensional computations were performed at Re = 380,000 and 640,000. In both cases there were no significant differences between the midspan solution from 3D computations and the 2D solutions. However, the 3D solutions exhibited flow features observed in the experiments the nearly 2D structure of the flow over most of the span at 380,000 and the spanwise growth of corner vortices from the endwall at 640,000.

Prediction and validation of gold nanoparticles (GNPs) on plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR): a step toward development of nano-biofertilizers

Several soil microbes are present in the rhizosphere zone, especially plant growth promoting rhizobacteria (PGPR), which are best known for their plant growth promoting activities. The present study reflects the effect of gold nanoparticles (GNPs) at various concentrations on the growth of PGPR. GNPs were synthesized chemically, by reduction of HAuCl 4, and further characterized by UV-Vis spectroscopy, X-ray diffraction technique (XRD), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM), etc. The impact of GNPs on PGPR was investigated by Clinical Laboratory Standards Institute (CLSI) recommended Broth-Microdilution technique against four selected PGPR viz., Pseudomonas fluorescens, Bacillus subtilis, Paenibacillus elgii, and Pseudomonas putida. Neither accelerating nor reducing impact was observed in P. putida due to GNPs. On the contrary, significant increase was observed in the case of P. fluorescens, P. elgii, and B. subtilis, and hence, GNPs can be exploited as nano-biofertilizers.

A fast algorithm for speech polarity detection using long-term linear prediction

Speech polarity detection is a crucial first step in many speech processing techniques. In this paper, an algorithm is proposed that improvises the existing technique using the skewness of the voice source (VS) signal. Here, the integrated linear prediction residual (ILPR) is used as the VS estimate, which is obtained using linear prediction on long-term frames of the low-pass filtered speech signal. This excludes the unvoiced regions from analysis and also reduces the computation. Further, a modified skewness measure is proposed for decision, which also considers the magnitude of the skewness of the ILPR along with its sign. With the detection error rate (DER) as the performance metric, the algorithm is tested on 8 large databases and its performance (DER=0.20%) is found to be comparable to that of the best technique (DER=0.06%) on both clean and noisy speech. Further, the proposed method is found to be ten times faster than the best technique.

Prediction of Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of links with equatorial Pacific and Indian Ocean climate indices

Interannual variation of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) is linked to El Nino-Southern oscillation (ENSO) as well as the Equatorial Indian Ocean oscillation (EQUINOO) with the link with the seasonal value of the ENSO index being stronger than that with the EQUINOO index. We show that the variation of a composite index determined through bivariate analysis, explains 54% of ISMR variance, suggesting a strong dependence of the skill of monsoon prediction on the skill of prediction of ENSO and EQUINOO. We explored the possibility of prediction of the Indian rainfall during the summer monsoon season on the basis of prior values of the indices. We find that such predictions are possible for July-September rainfall on the basis of June indices and for August-September rainfall based on the July indices. This will be a useful input for second and later stage forecasts made after the commencement of the monsoon season.

Prediction of electronically nonadiabatic decomposition mechanisms of isolated gas phase nitrogen-rich energetic salt: Guanidium-triazolate

Electronically nonadiabatic decomposition pathways of guanidium triazolate are explored theoretically. Nonadiabatically coupled potential energy surfaces are explored at the complete active space self-consistent field (CASSCF) level of theory. For better estimation of energies complete active space second order perturbation theories (CASPT2 and CASMP2) are also employed. Density functional theory (DFT) with B3LYP functional and MP2 level of theory are used to explore subsequent ground state decomposition pathways. In comparison with all possible stable decomposition products (such as, N-2, NH3, HNC, HCN, NH2CN and CH3NC), only NH3 (with NH2CN) and N-2 are predicted to be energetically most accessible initial decomposition products. Furthermore, different conical intersections between the S-1 and S-0 surfaces, which are computed at the CASSCF(14,10)/6-31G(d) level of theory, are found to play an essential role in the excited state deactivation process of guanidium triazolate. This is the first report on the electronically nonadiabatic decomposition mechanisms of isolated guanidium triazolate salt. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Numerical prediction of nozzle flow separation: Issue of turbulence modeling

Numerical simulation of separated flows in rocket nozzles is challenging because existing turbulence models are unable to predict it correctly. This paper addresses this issue with the Spalart-Allmaras and Shear Stress Transport (SST) eddy-viscosity models, which predict flow separation with moderate success. Their performances have been compared against experimental data for a conical and two contoured subscale nozzles. It is found that they fail to predict the separation location correctly, exhibiting sensitivity to the nozzle pressure ratio (NPR) and nozzle type. A careful assessment indicated how the model had to be tuned for better, consistent prediction. It is learnt that SST model's failure is caused by limiting of the shear stress inside boundary layer according to Bradshaw's assumption, and by over prediction of jet spreading rate. Accordingly, SST's coefficients were empirically modified to match the experimental wall pressure data. Results confirm that accurate RANS prediction of separation depends on the correct capture of the jet spreading rate, and that it is feasible over a wide range of NPRs by modified values of the diffusion coefficients in the turbulence model. (C) 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

State Vector: A New Approach to Prediction of the Failure of Brittle Heterogeneous Media and Large Earthquakes

The concept of state vector stems from statistical physics, where it is usually used to describe activity patterns of a physical field in its manner of coarsegrain. In this paper, we propose an approach by which the state vector was applied to describe quantitatively the damage evolution of the brittle heterogeneous systems, and some interesting results are presented, i.e., prior to the macro-fracture of rock specimens and occurrence of a strong earthquake, evolutions of the four relevant scalars time series derived from the state vectors changed anomalously. As retrospective studies, some prominent large earthquakes occurred in the Chinese Mainland (e.g., the M 7.4 Haicheng earthquake on February 4, 1975, and the M 7.8 Tangshan earthquake on July 28, 1976, etc) were investigated. Results show considerable promise that the time-dependent state vectors could serve as a kind of precursor to predict earthquakes.