Modelling world investment markets using threshold conditional correlation models

In this paper we propose a parsimonious regime-switching approach to model the correlations between assets, the threshold conditional correlation (TCC) model. This method allows the dynamics of the correlations to change from one state (or regime) to another as a function of observable transition variables. Our model is similar in spirit to Silvennoinen and Teräsvirta (2009) and Pelletier (2006) but with the appealing feature that it does not suffer from the course of dimensionality. In particular, estimation of the parameters of the TCC involves a simple grid search procedure. In addition, it is easy to guarantee a positive definite correlation matrix because the TCC estimator is given by the sample correlation matrix, which is positive definite by construction. The methodology is illustrated by evaluating the behaviour of international equities, govenrment bonds and major exchange rates, first separately and then jointly. We also test and allow for different parts in the correlation matrix to be governed by different transition variables. For this, we estimate a multi-threshold TCC specification. Further, we evaluate the economic performance of the TCC model against a constant conditional correlation (CCC) estimator using a Diebold-Mariano type test. We conclude that threshold correlation modelling gives rise to a significant reduction in portfolio´s variance.

Temperamental Dimension and Anxiety Problems in a Clinical Sample of Three- to Six-year old Children: A Study of Variables

In the last few years, many researchers have studied the presence of common dimensions of temperament in subjects with symptoms of anxiety. The aim of this study is to examine the association between temperamental dimensions (high negative affect and activity level) and anxiety problems in clinicalpreschool children. A total of 38 children, ages 3 to 6 years, from the Infant and Adolescent Mental Health Center of Girona and the Center of Diagnosis and Early Attention of Sabadell and Olot were evaluated by parents and psychologists. Their parents completed several screening scales and, subsequently, clinical child psychopathology professionals carried out diagnostic interviews with children from the sample who presented signs of anxiety. Findings showed that children with high levels of negative affect and low activity level have pronounced symptoms of anxiety. However, children with anxiety disorders do not present different temperament styles from their peers without these pathologies

Dapagliflozina

Dapagliflozin is a new oral antidiabetic agent whose mechanism of action increases renal glucose excretion, independently of insulin secretion or insulin action. The efficacy of dapagliflozin is dependent on renal function. The use of dapagliflozin has been licensed to improve glycaemic control in patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus as: - monotherapy when diet and exercise alone do not provide adequate glycaemic control in patients for whom the use of metformin is considered inappropriate due to intolerance. - Add-on combination therapy with other glucose-lowering agents including insulin, when these, together with diet and exercise, do not provide adequate glycaemic control. Funding has been restricted to the use of dapagliflozin, prior approval, as dual therapy in combination with metformin. This report aims to assess the efficacy and safety of dapagliflozin in the treatment of type 2 diabetes mellitus, rate the added therapeutic value of dapagliflozin in type 2 diabetes mellitus and identify its current place in therapy. A systematic literature search was carried out, for the purpose of this evaluation, using PubMed, Embase, Cochrane and IDIS databases as well as other secondary sources of evidence-based medicine, therapeutic bulletins and national and international drug agencies. Following the critical reading and analysis of the selected articles, a summary is made out of the scientific evidence available, using Scottish Intercollegiate Guidelines Network (SIGN) criteria. Only one randomised clinical trial, out of the ten trials found, was considered to be a suitable comparison (versus a dual therapy in combination with the sulfonylurea glipizide in patients inadequately controlled with metformin, diet and exercise). No trials have evaluated variables of relevance to patients, except for safety variables. The main efficacy variable in the trials was the change from baseline in HbA1c, except for a study which evaluated the change from baseline in total body weight as main variable. Baseline characteristics of the patients enrolled in the trials significantly differ from those of the population with diabetes in our society which tend to be of an older age and have a longer history of type 2 diabetes mellitus. The major limitation of dapagliflozin derives from its mechanism of action, since its efficacy decreases as renal function declines. The use of dapagliflozin is not recommended in patients with moderate to severe renal impairment ((CrCl<60ml/min or GFG <60 ml/min/1.73 m2) nor in elderly patients, in which a decrease in renal function can be expected. The assessment of safety includes the incidence and rate of discontinuations due to adverse events, episodes of hypoglycaemia, signs or symptoms of genital and urinary tract infections, dehydration, hypovolaemia and hypotension. Further pharmacoepidemiological studies are to be carried out to clarify the long-term effects of dapagliflozin on renal function and the potential effect in the development of breast and bladder tumours. Dapagliflozin as monotherapy has not been evaluated against adequate comparators (sulfonylureas, pioglitazone, gliptins). In combination therapy with metformin, the efficacy of dapagliflozin was shown to be non-inferior to glipizide plus metformin, resulting in a mean reduction of 0.52% in HbA1c, with a difference of 0.00 among both groups (95% CI: -0.11 a 0.11). There are no comparative data against other second-line treatment options. As shown in the studies, the overall incidence of adverse events with dapagliflozin as monotherapy (21.5%) was similar to that observed with placebo, and greater to that observed with metformin (15.4%). Hypoglycaemia of any type was the adverse event more frequently reported. The incidence of severe hypoglycaemic events observed in most of the studies was low. The overall incidence of adverse events observed in the study that compared dapagliflozin+metformin against glipizide+metformin was similar for both groups (27%) and incidence of hypoglycaemic events with dapagliflozin (3.5%) was significantly lower to that observed with glipizide (40.8%). Reductions of body weight of about 2 to 3 kg and a slight decrease in blood pressure (1 to 5 mmHg) have been observed in all studies in the groups treated with dapagliflozin together with diet and exercise. Dosing scheme (every 24 hours) is similar to other oral antidiabetic agents and its cost is similar to that for gliptines and higher to that for sulfonylureas or generic pioglitazone. Funding has been limited to the use of dapagliflozin as dual therapy regimen in combination with metformin as an option for patients with contraindication or intolerance to sulfonylureas, such a those experiencing frequent hypoglycaemic events, weight loss associated risks, as long as they are under 75 years of age and have no moderate to severe renal impairment. In the light of the above, we consider dapagliflozin means no therapeutic innovation in the therapy of type 2 diabetes mellitus over other therapeutic alternatives available.

Respiratory quotient evolution during normal pregnancy: what nutritional or clinical information can we get out of it?

Food intake increases to a varying extent during pregnancy to provide extra energy for the growing fetus. Measuring the respiratory quotient (RQ) during the course of pregnancy (by quantifying O2 consumption and CO2 production with indirect calorimetry) could be potentially useful since it gives an insight into the evolution of the proportion of carbohydrate vs. fat oxidized during pregnancy and thus allows recommendations on macronutrients for achieving a balanced (or slightly positive) substrate intake. A systematic search of the literature for papers reporting RQ changes during normal pregnancy identified 10 papers reporting original research. The existing evidence supports an increased RQ of varying magnitude in the third trimester of pregnancy, while the discrepant results reported for the first and second trimesters (i.e. no increase in RQ), explained by limited statistical power (small sample size) or fragmentary data, preclude safe conclusions about the evolution of RQ during early pregnancy. From a clinical point of view, measuring RQ during pregnancy requires not only sophisticated and costly indirect calorimeters but appears of limited value outside pure research projects, because of several confounding variables: (1) spontaneous changes in food intake and food composition during the course of pregnancy (which influence RQ); (2) inter-individual differences in weight gain and composition of tissue growth; (3) technical factors, notwithstanding the relatively small contribution of fetal metabolism per se (RQ close to 1.0) to overall metabolism of the pregnant mother.

Anàlisi de llocs webs en català i castellà que promouen la no vacunació a Internet

La incidència de les malalties que es poden prevenir mitjançant la vacunació està relacionada amb el nombre de nens no vacunats. Els pares que es neguen a vacunar als seus fills expressen amb freqüència la seva preocupació per la seguretat de les vacunes. Internet podria influir en la seva percepció de la seguretat vers la vacunació, atès que és una font en creixement sobre temes de salut. Malgrat això, pocs estudis han analitzat la possible incidència que poden exercir les webs que promulguen la no vacunació sobre els pares. L'objectiu d'aquest treball és analitzar les webs trobades mitjançant Google i Bing que ofereixin continguts "anti vacunació" en català i castellà. Aquest estudi proporciona l'anàlisi de les 16 webs trobades en aquestes llengües que acompleixen les variables establertes com 'anti vacunació' en estudis realitzats en altres idiomes i territoris: totes aquestes webs publicades en castellà i català aboquen dures crítiques vers la vacunació. Atesa la importància de la qüestió, es recomana aprofundir en la mateixa línea d'investigació utilitzant altres equacions en la recerca.

When should clinicians search for GLUT1 deficiency syndrome in childhood generalized epilepsies?

UNLABELLED: GLUT1 deficiency (GLUT1D) has recently been identified as an important cause of generalized epilepsies in childhood. As it is a treatable condition, it is crucial to determine which patients should be investigated. METHODS: We analyzed SLC2A1 for mutations in a group of 93 unrelated children with generalized epilepsies. Fasting lumbar puncture was performed following the identification of a mutation. We compared our results with a systematic review of 7 publications of series of patients with generalized epilepsies screened for SLC2A1 mutations. RESULTS: We found 2/93 (2.1%) patients with a SLC2A1 mutation. One, carrying a novel de novo deletion had epilepsy with myoclonic-atonic seizures (MAE), mild slowing of head growth, choreiform movements and developmental delay. The other, with a paternally inherited missense mutation, had childhood absence epilepsy with atypical EEG features and paroxysmal exercise-induced dyskinesia (PED) initially misdiagnosed as myoclonic seizures. Out of a total of 1110 screened patients with generalized epilepsies from 7 studies, 2.4% (29/1110) had GLUT1D. This rate was higher (5.6%) among 303 patients with early onset absence epilepsy (EOAE) from 4 studies. About 50% of GLUT1D patients had abnormal movements and 41% a family history of seizures, abnormal movements or both. CONCLUSION: GLUT1D is most likely to be found in MAE and in EOAE. The probability of finding GLUT1D in the classical idiopathic generalized epilepsies is very low. Pointers to GLUT1D include an increase in seizures before meals, cognitive impairment, or PED which can easily be overlooked.

A search for the origin of cadmium in the soil of the Swiss Jura

The top soil of a 14.5 km(2) region at la Chaux-de-Fonds in the Swiss Jura is exceptionally rich in cadmium. It contains an average of 1.3 mg per kg of soil. The spatial distribution of the metal has no simple pattern that could be explained by atmospheric deposition or agricultural practices. Thin soil contained most of its Cd at the surface; in thicker soil Cd is mainly concentrated between 60 and 80 cm depth. No specific minerals or soil fractions could account for these accumulation, and the vertical distribution of Cd is best explained by leaching from the topsoil and further adsorption within layers of nearly neutral pH. The local Jurassic sedimentary rocks contained too little Cd to account for the Cd concentrations in the soil. Alpine gravels from glacial till were too sparse in soils to explain such a spreading of Cd. Moreover this origin is contradictory with the fact that Cd is concentrated in the sand fraction of soils. The respective distributions of Fe and Cd in soils, and soil fractions, suggested that the spreading of iron nodules accumulated during the siderolithic period (Eocene) was not the main source of Cd. Atmospheric deposition, and spreading of fertiliser or waste from septic tanks seem the only plausible explanation for the Cd concentrations, but at present few factors allow us to differentiate between them.

Comparison of early cortical networks in efficient and inefficient visual search: an event-related potential study.

Functional magnetic resonance imaging studies have indicated that efficient feature search (FS) and inefficient conjunction search (CS) activate partially distinct frontoparietal cortical networks. However, it remains a matter of debate whether the differences in these networks reflect differences in the early processing during FS and CS. In addition, the relationship between the differences in the networks and spatial shifts of attention also remains unknown. We examined these issues by applying a spatio-temporal analysis method to high-resolution visual event-related potentials (ERPs) and investigated how spatio-temporal activation patterns differ for FS and CS tasks. Within the first 450 msec after stimulus onset, scalp potential distributions (ERP maps) revealed 7 different electric field configurations for each search task. Configuration changes occurred simultaneously in the two tasks, suggesting that contributing processes were not significantly delayed in one task compared to the other. Despite this high spatial and temporal correlation, two ERP maps (120-190 and 250-300 msec) differed between the FS and CS. Lateralized distributions were observed only in the ERP map at 250-300 msec for the FS. This distribution corresponds to that previously described as the N2pc component (a negativity in the time range of the N2 complex over posterior electrodes of the hemisphere contralateral to the target hemifield), which has been associated with the focusing of attention onto potential target items in the search display. Thus, our results indicate that the cortical networks involved in feature and conjunction searching partially differ as early as 120 msec after stimulus onset and that the differences between the networks employed during the early stages of FS and CS are not necessarily caused by spatial attention shifts.

Adaptive search and information updating in sequential mate choice

Classical treatments of problems of sequential mate choice assume that the distribution of the quality of potential mates is known a priori. This assumption, made for analytical purposes, may seem unrealistic, opposing empirical data as well as evolutionary arguments. Using stochastic dynamic programming, we develop a model that includes the possibility for searching individuals to learn about the distribution and in particular to update mean and variance during the search. In a constant environment, a priori knowledge of the parameter values brings strong benefits in both time needed to make a decision and average value of mate obtained. Knowing the variance yields more benefits than knowing the mean, and benefits increase with variance. However, the costs of learning become progressively lower as more time is available for choice. When parameter values differ between demes and/or searching periods, a strategy relying on fixed a priori information might lead to erroneous decisions, which confers advantages on the learning strategy. However, time for choice plays an important role as well: if a decision must be made rapidly, a fixed strategy may do better even when the fixed image does not coincide with the local parameter values. These results help in delineating the ecological-behavior context in which learning strategies may spread.

Evolving from inferences to decisions in the interpretation of scientific evidence

Le travail d'un(e) expert(e) en science forensique exige que ce dernier (cette dernière) prenne une série de décisions. Ces décisions sont difficiles parce qu'elles doivent être prises dans l'inévitable présence d'incertitude, dans le contexte unique des circonstances qui entourent la décision, et, parfois, parce qu'elles sont complexes suite à de nombreuse variables aléatoires et dépendantes les unes des autres. Etant donné que ces décisions peuvent aboutir à des conséquences sérieuses dans l'administration de la justice, la prise de décisions en science forensique devrait être soutenue par un cadre robuste qui fait des inférences en présence d'incertitudes et des décisions sur la base de ces inférences. L'objectif de cette thèse est de répondre à ce besoin en présentant un cadre théorique pour faire des choix rationnels dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. L'inférence et la théorie de la décision bayésienne satisfont les conditions nécessaires pour un tel cadre théorique. Pour atteindre son objectif, cette thèse consiste de trois propositions, recommandant l'utilisation (1) de la théorie de la décision, (2) des réseaux bayésiens, et (3) des réseaux bayésiens de décision pour gérer des problèmes d'inférence et de décision forensiques. Les résultats présentent un cadre uniforme et cohérent pour faire des inférences et des décisions en science forensique qui utilise les concepts théoriques ci-dessus. Ils décrivent comment organiser chaque type de problème en le décomposant dans ses différents éléments, et comment trouver le meilleur plan d'action en faisant la distinction entre des problèmes de décision en une étape et des problèmes de décision en deux étapes et en y appliquant le principe de la maximisation de l'utilité espérée. Pour illustrer l'application de ce cadre à des problèmes rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique, des études de cas théoriques appliquent la théorie de la décision, les réseaux bayésiens et les réseaux bayésiens de décision à une sélection de différents types de problèmes d'inférence et de décision impliquant différentes catégories de traces. Deux études du problème des deux traces illustrent comment la construction de réseaux bayésiens permet de gérer des problèmes d'inférence complexes, et ainsi surmonter l'obstacle de la complexité qui peut être présent dans des problèmes de décision. Trois études-une sur ce qu'il faut conclure d'une recherche dans une banque de données qui fournit exactement une correspondance, une sur quel génotype il faut rechercher dans une banque de données sur la base des observations faites sur des résultats de profilage d'ADN, et une sur s'il faut soumettre une trace digitale à un processus qui compare la trace avec des empreintes de sources potentielles-expliquent l'application de la théorie de la décision et des réseaux bayésiens de décision à chacune de ces décisions. Les résultats des études des cas théoriques soutiennent les trois propositions avancées dans cette thèse. Ainsi, cette thèse présente un cadre uniforme pour organiser et trouver le plan d'action le plus rationnel dans des problèmes de décisions rencontrés par les experts dans un laboratoire de science forensique. Le cadre proposé est un outil interactif et exploratoire qui permet de mieux comprendre un problème de décision afin que cette compréhension puisse aboutir à des choix qui sont mieux informés. - Forensic science casework involves making a sériés of choices. The difficulty in making these choices lies in the inévitable presence of uncertainty, the unique context of circumstances surrounding each décision and, in some cases, the complexity due to numerous, interrelated random variables. Given that these décisions can lead to serious conséquences in the admin-istration of justice, forensic décision making should be supported by a robust framework that makes inferences under uncertainty and décisions based on these inferences. The objective of this thesis is to respond to this need by presenting a framework for making rational choices in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. Bayesian inference and décision theory meets the requirements for such a framework. To attain its objective, this thesis consists of three propositions, advocating the use of (1) décision theory, (2) Bayesian networks, and (3) influence diagrams for handling forensic inference and décision problems. The results present a uniform and coherent framework for making inferences and décisions in forensic science using the above theoretical concepts. They describe how to organize each type of problem by breaking it down into its différent elements, and how to find the most rational course of action by distinguishing between one-stage and two-stage décision problems and applying the principle of expected utility maximization. To illustrate the framework's application to the problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories, theoretical case studies apply décision theory, Bayesian net-works and influence diagrams to a selection of différent types of inference and décision problems dealing with différent catégories of trace evidence. Two studies of the two-trace problem illustrate how the construction of Bayesian networks can handle complex inference problems, and thus overcome the hurdle of complexity that can be present in décision prob-lems. Three studies-one on what to conclude when a database search provides exactly one hit, one on what genotype to search for in a database based on the observations made on DNA typing results, and one on whether to submit a fingermark to the process of comparing it with prints of its potential sources-explain the application of décision theory and influ¬ence diagrams to each of these décisions. The results of the theoretical case studies support the thesis's three propositions. Hence, this thesis présents a uniform framework for organizing and finding the most rational course of action in décision problems encountered by scientists in forensic science laboratories. The proposed framework is an interactive and exploratory tool for better understanding a décision problem so that this understanding may lead to better informed choices.

Health risk behavior pattern among students from Cartagena, Colombia: prevalence and associated variables

The aim of the study was to determine the prevalence and variables associated with the pattern of risky health behavior (PRHB) among adolescent students in Cartagena, Colombia. A cross-sectional study was designed to investigate PRHB in a random cluster sample of students from middle and high schools. The associations were adjusted by logistic regression. A total of 2,625 students participated in this research, with ages from 10 to 20 years, mean=13.8 years (SD=2.0), and 54.3% were women. A total of 332 students reported PRHB (12.7%, 95%CI 11.4–14.0). Age over 15 years (OR=2.19, 95%CI 1.72–2.79), not being heterosexual (OR=1.98, 95%CI 1.36-2.87), poor/mediocre academic performance (OR=1.87, 95%CI 1.47–2.38), family dysfunction (OR=1.78, 95%CI 1.40–2.28) and male gender (OR=1.58, 95%CI 1.24–2.01) were associated with PRHB. One in every eight students presented a PRHB. It is important to pay greater attention to students who are over 15 years of age, male, not heterosexual, with a poor/mediocre academic performance and a dysfunctional family.