Two-sided learning in new keynesian models: dynamics, (lack of) convergence and the value of information

This paper investigates the role of learning by private agents and the central bank (two-sided learning) in a New Keynesian framework in which both sides of the economy have asymmetric and imperfect knowledge about the true data generating process. We assume that all agents employ the data that they observe (which may be distinct for different sets of agents) to form beliefs about unknown aspects of the true model of the economy, use their beliefs to decide on actions, and revise these beliefs through a statistical learning algorithm as new information becomes available. We study the short-run dynamics of our model and derive its policy recommendations, particularly with respect to central bank communications. We demonstrate that two-sided learning can generate substantial increases in volatility and persistence, and alter the behavior of the variables in the model in a signifficant way. Our simulations do not converge to a symmetric rational expectations equilibrium and we highlight one source that invalidates the convergence results of Marcet and Sargent (1989). Finally, we identify a novel aspect of central bank communication in models of learning: communication can be harmful if the central bank's model is substantially mis-specified

Assessment of occlusive arterial disease of abdominal aorta and lower extremities arteries : value of multidetector CT angiography using and adaptative acquisition method

Rapport de synthèse : Objectif : Le but de ce travail est d`étudier l'angiographie par scanner multi-barrette (AS) dans l'évaluation de l'artériopathie oblitérante (AOMI) de l'aorte abdominale et des membres inférieurs utilisant une méthode adaptative d'acquisition pour optimiser le rehaussement artériel en particulier pour le lit artériel distal et les artères des pieds. Matériels et méthodes : Trente-quatre patients pressentant une AOMI ont bénéficié d'une angiographie trans-cathéter (ATC) et d'une AS dans un délai inférieur ou égal à 15 jours. L'AS a été effectuée du tronc coeliaque jusqu'aux artères des pieds en une seule acquisition utilisant une haute résolution spatiale (16x0.625 mm). La vitesse de table et le temps de rotation pour chaque examen ont été choisis selon le temps de transit du produit de contraste, obtenu après un bolus test. Une quantité totale de 130 ml de contraste à 4 ml/s a été utilisée. L'analyse des images de l'AS a été effectuée par deux observateurs et les données ATC ont été interprétées de manière indépendante par deux autres observateurs. L'analyse a inclus la qualité de l'image et la détection de sténose supérieure ou égale à 50 % par patient et par segment artériel. La sensibilité et la spécificité de l'AS ont été calculées en considérant l'ATC comme examen de référence. La variabilité Interobservateur a été mesurée au moyen d'une statistique de kappa. Résultas : L'ATC a été non-conclusive dans 0.7 % des segments, tandis que l'AS était conclusive dans tous les segments. Sur l'analyse par patient, la sensibilité et la spécificité totales pour détecter une sténose significative égale ou supérieure à 50 % étaient de 100 %. L'analyse par segment a montré des sensibilités et de spécificités variant respectivement de 91 à 100 % et de 81 à 100 %. L'analyse des artères distales des pieds a révélé une sensibilité de 100 % et une spécificité de 90 %. Conclusion : L'angiographie par CT multi-barrettes utilisant cette méthode adaptative d'acquisition améliore la qualité de l'image et fournit une technique non-invasive et fiable pour évaluer L'AOMI, y compris les artères distales des pieds.

MDCT Arthrography of the Hip: Value of the Adaptive Statistical Iterative Reconstruction Technique and Potential for Radiation Dose Reduction

Au cours des deux dernières décennies, la technique d'imagerie arthro-scanner a bénéficié de nombreux progrès technologiques et représente aujourd'hui une excellente alternative à l'imagerie par résonance magnétique (IRM) et / ou arthro-IRM dans l'évaluation des pathologies de la hanche. Cependant, elle reste limitée par l'exposition aux rayonnements ionisants importante. Les techniques de reconstruction itérative (IR) ont récemment été mis en oeuvre avec succès en imagerie ; la littérature montre que l'utilisation ces dernières contribue à réduire la dose d'environ 40 à 55%, comparativement aux protocoles courants utilisant la rétroprojection filtrée (FBP), en scanner de rachis. A notre connaissance, l'utilisation de techniques IR en arthro-scanner de hanche n'a pas été évaluée jusqu'à présent. Le but de notre étude était d'évaluer l'impact de la technique ASIR (GE Healthcare) sur la qualité de l'image objective et subjective en arthro-scanner de hanche, et d'évaluer son potentiel en terme de réduction de dose. Pour cela, trente sept patients examinés par arthro-scanner de hanche ont été randomisés en trois groupes : dose standard (CTDIvol = 38,4 mGy) et deux groupes de dose réduite (CTDIvol = 24,6 ou 15,4 mGy). Les images ont été reconstruites en rétroprojection filtrée (FBP) puis en appliquant différents pourcentages croissants d'ASIR (30, 50, 70 et 90%). Le bruit et le rapport contraste sur bruit (CNR) ont été mesurés. Deux radiologues spécialisés en imagerie musculo-squelettique ont évalué de manière indépendante la qualité de l'image au niveau de plusieurs structures anatomiques en utilisant une échelle de quatre grades. Ils ont également évalué les lésions labrales et du cartilage articulaire. Les résultats révèlent que le bruit augmente (p = 0,0009) et le CNR diminue (p = 0,001) de manière significative lorsque la dose diminue. A l'inverse, le bruit diminue (p = 0,0001) et le contraste sur bruit augmente (p < 0,003) de manière significative lorsque le pourcentage d'ASIR augmente ; on trouve également une augmentation significative des scores de la qualité de l'image pour le labrum, le cartilage, l'os sous-chondral, la qualité de l'image globale (au delà de ASIR 50%), ainsi que le bruit (p < 0,04), et une réduction significative pour l'os trabuculaire et les muscles (p < 0,03). Indépendamment du niveau de dose, il n'y a pas de différence significative pour la détection et la caractérisation des lésions labrales (n=24, p = 1) et des lésions cartilagineuses (n=40, p > 0,89) en fonction du pourcentage d'ASIR. Notre travail a permis de montrer que l'utilisation de plus de 50% d'ASIR permet de reduire de manière significative la dose d'irradiation reçue par le patient lors d'un arthro-scanner de hanche tout en maintenant une qualité d'image diagnostique comparable par rapport à un protocole de dose standard utilisant la rétroprojection filtrée.

Predictive value of Glasgow Coma Scale after brain trauma: change in trend over the past ten years.

BACKGROUND: Age and the Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score on admission are considered important predictors of outcome after traumatic brain injury. We investigated the predictive value of the GCS in a large group of patients whose computerised multimodal bedside monitoring data had been collected over the previous 10 years. METHODS: Data from 358 subjects with head injury, collected between 1992 and 2001, were analysed retrospectively. Patients were grouped according to year of admission. Glasgow Outcome Scores (GOS) were determined at six months. Spearman's correlation coefficients between GCS and GOS scores were calculated for each year. RESULTS: On average 34 (SD: 7) patients were monitored every year. We found a significant correlation between the GCS and GOS for the first five years (overall 1992-1996: r = 0.41; p<0.00001; n = 183) and consistent lack of correlations from 1997 onwards (overall 1997-2001: r = 0.091; p = 0.226; n = 175). In contrast, correlations between age and GOS were in both time periods significant and similar (r = -0.24 v r = -0.24; p<0.002). CONCLUSIONS: The admission GCS lost its predictive value for outcome in this group of patients from 1997 onwards. The predictive value of the GCS should be carefully reconsidered when building prognostic models incorporating multimodality monitoring after head injury.

On optimal learning schedules and the marginal value of cumulative cultural evolution.

The age-dependent choice between expressing individual learning (IL) or social learning (SL) affects cumulative cultural evolution. A learning schedule in which SL precedes IL is supportive of cumulative culture because the amount of nongenetically encoded adaptive information acquired by previous generations can be absorbed by an individual and augmented. Devoting time and energy to learning, however, reduces the resources available for other life-history components. Learning schedules and life history thus coevolve. Here, we analyze a model where individuals may have up to three distinct life stages: "infants" using IL or oblique SL, "juveniles" implementing IL or horizontal SL, and adults obtaining material resources with learned information. We study the dynamic allocation of IL and SL within life stages and how this coevolves with the length of the learning stages. Although no learning may be evolutionary stable, we find conditions where cumulative cultural evolution can be selected for. In that case, the evolutionary stable learning schedule causes individuals to use oblique SL during infancy and a mixture between IL and horizontal SL when juvenile. We also find that the selected pattern of oblique SL increases the amount of information in the population, but horizontal SL does not do so.

Sharing competences in strategic alliances: a case study of the Cosan and Shell biofuel venture

In a competitive world, the way a firm establishes its organizational arrangements may determine the enhancement of its core competences and the possibility of reaching new markets. Firms that find their skills to be applicable in just one type of market encounter constraints in expanding their markets, and through alliances may find a competitive form of value capture. Hybrid forms of organization appear primarily as an alternative to capturing value and managing joint assets when the market and hierarchy modes do not present any yields for the firm's competitiveness. As a result, this form may present other challenging issues, such as the allocation of rights and principal-agent problems. The biofuel market has presented a strong pattern of changes over the last 10 years. New intra-firm arrangements have appeared as a path to participate or survive among global competition. Given the need for capital to achieve better results, there has been a consistent movement of mergers and acquisitions in the Biofuel sector, especially since the 2008 financial crisis. In 2011 there were five major groups in Brazil with a grinding capacity of more than 15 million tons per year: Raízen (joint venture formed by Cosan and Shell), Louis Dreyfus, Tereos Petrobras, ETH, and Bunge. Major oil companies have implemented the strategy of diversification as a hedge against the rising cost of oil. Using the alliance of Cosan and Shell in the Brazilian biofuel market as a case study, this paper analyses the governance mode and challenging issues raised by strategic alliances when firms aim to reach new markets through the sharing of core competences with local firms. The article is based on documentary research and interviews with Cosan's Investor Relations staff, and examines the main questions involving hybrid forms through the lens of the Transaction Cost Economics (TCE), Agency Theory, Resource Based View (RBV), and dynamic capabilities theoretical approaches. One focal point is knowledge "appropriability" and the specific assets originated by the joint venture. Once the alliance is formed, it is expected that competences will be shared and new capabilities will expand the limits of the firm. In the case studied, Cosan and Shell shared a number of strategic assets related to their competences. Raízen was formed with economizing incentives, as well to continue marshalling internal resources to enhance the company's presence in the world energy sector. Therefore, some challenges might be related to the control and monitoring agents' behavior, considering the two-part organism formed by distinctive organizational culture, tacit knowledge, and long-term incentives. The case study analyzed illustrates the hybrid arrangement as a middle form for organizing the transaction: neither in the market nor in the hierarchy mode, but rather a more flexible commitment agreement with a strategic central authority. The corporate governance devices are also a challenge, since the alignment between the parent companies in the joint ventures is far more complex. These characteristics have led to an organism with bilateral dependence, offering favorable conditions for developing dynamic capabilities. However, these conditions might rely on the partners' long-term interest in the joint venture.

Incremental Prognostic Value of Myocardial Blood Flow Quantification with Rb-82 Cardiac PET in Patients With Known or Suspected CAD

Rb-82cardiac PET has been used to non-invasively assess myocardial blood flow (MBF)and myocardial flow reserve (MFR). The impact of MBF and MFR for predictingmajor adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) has not been investigated in aprospective study, which was our aim. MATERIAL AND METHODS: In total, 280patients (65±10y, 36% women) with known or suspected CAD were prospectivelyenrolled. They all underwent both a rest and adenosine stress Rb-82 cardiacPET/CT. Dynamic acquisitions were processed with the FlowQuant 2.1.3 softwareand analyzed semi-quantitatively (SSS, SDS) and quantitatively (MBF, MFR) andreported using the 17-segment AHA model. Patients were stratified based on SDS,stress MBF and MFR and allocated into tertiles. For each group, annualizedevent rates were computed by dividing the number of annualized MACE (cardiacdeath, myocardial infarction, revascularisation or hospitalisation forcardiac-related event) by the sum of individual follow-up periods in years.Outcome were analysed for each group using Kaplan-Meier event-free survivalcurves and compared using the log-rank test. Multivariate analysis wasperformed in a stepwise fashion using Cox proportional hazards regressionmodels (p<0.05 for model inclusion). RESULTS: In a median follow-up of 256days (range 168-440d), 44 MACE were observed. Ischemia (SDS≥2) was observed in95 patients who had higher annualized MACE rate as compared to those without(55% vs. 9.8%, p<0.0001). The group with the lowest MFR tertile (MFR<1.76)had higher MACE rate than the two highest tertiles (51% vs. 9% and 14%,p<0.0001). Similarly, the group with the lowest stress MBF tertile(MBF<1.78mL/min/g) had the highest annualized MACE rate (41% vs. 26% and 6%,p=0.0002). On multivariate analysis, the addition of MFR or stress MBF to SDSsignificantly increased the global χ2 (from 56 to 60, p=0.04; and from56 to 63, p=0.01). The best prognostic power was obtained in a model combiningSDS (p<0.001) and stress MBF (p=0.01). Interestingly, the integration ofstress MBF enhanced risk stratification even in absence of ischemia.CONCLUSIONS: Quantification of MBF or MFR in Rb-82 cardiac PET/CT providesindependent and incremental prognostic information over semi-quantitativeassessment with SDS and is of value for risk stratification.

Intérêt de la tomographie par émission de positons couplée à la scanographie (TEP/TDM) dans les cancers urologiques [Value of positron emission tomography and computer tomography (PET/CT) for urologic malignancies].

Positron emission tomography is a functional imaging technique that allows the detection of the regional metabolic rate, and is often coupled with other morphological imaging technique such as computed tomography. The rationale for its use is based on the clearly demonstrated fact that functional changes in tumor processes happen before morphological changes. Its introduction to the clinical practice added a new dimension in conventional imaging techniques. This review presents the current and proposed indications of the use of positron emission/computed tomography for prostate, bladder and testes, and the potential role of this exam in radiotherapy planning.

Beyond Prejudice : conservation in the City : a case study from Switzerland

Conservation in the city is challenging because of a continued view that the urban realm is antithetical to nature. This was clearly the case when the first Swiss National Park was established at the beginning of the 20th century. New Swiss legislation brought new approaches to the establishment of natural parks, in particular by including human activities as a logical component in their development. In 2010, a Federal think tank discussed opportunities for launching a new kind of park: the Urban Natural Park. This paper reports an analysis of this discussion, together with the study of the literature dealing with conservation in the city and natural parks. It shows that a clear antagonism between city and nature still remains present, reflected in an implicit hierarchy hidden in the designation of natural parks: wild nature is nominated as the best nature; if not wild, the best nature is identified as rural; if neither wild nor rural, nature is thought not to be the concern of natural park policy. The Swiss Biodiversity Strategy implemented in 2012 is a recent recognition of the importance of urban nature for biodiversity conservation. This recognition, however, condemns urban nature to a special status, situated outside the usual framework of conservation management. I conclude by arguing that anti-urban bias must be addressed because it inhibits effective conservation strategy, prevents the identification of existing environmental qualities of cities and, eventually, has negative impacts on biological conservation outside the city because it fosters urban spreading.

Understanding the hierarchy governance choice of some wineries in Brazil - case study of 3 Brazilian wineries

ABSTRACT This study aims to contribute towards understanding the multiple factors, which influence firm's governance decisions. To identify some of these factors, three cases in the Brazilian wine industry were analyzed: Miolo located in Vale dos Vinhedos (South of Brazil) and in Vale do Rio São Francisco (Northeast of Brazil); Don Laurindo located in Vale dos Vinhedos; and ViniBrasil located in Vale do Rio São Francisco. For the most part, all three firms procure the grapes they use for their wine production in-house. Only Miolo purchases an insignificant amount of grapes outside of its production. By Brazilian standards, these regions have a long tradition of grape production and it is not difficult to purchase sufficient quantity of grapes to produce wine. However, the wineries are concerned also about the quality of the grapes they use and purchasing high-quality grapes might be critical issue. On the other hand, the quality of grapes is easily measured and the cost to buy in the market is cheaper than producing in-house. Furthermore, also the level of asset specificity present in the grape-grower-wine-producer transaction seems, by itself, insufficient to justify the use of hierarchical governance forms. Then, the aim of the article is to analyze the reasons why these wineries largely rely on hierarchy governance forms to procure their grape-inputs. What explains their use of hierarchy governance, given that both asset specificity and measurement problems appear to be relatively low?

Intérêt de l'angiographie numérisée au vert d'indocyanine dans le diagnostic différentiel des tumeurs non pigmentées de la choroïde [Value of indocyanine green videoangiography in differential diagnosis of nonpigmented tumors of the choroid]

BACKGROUND: Indocyanine green video-angiography (ICG) is a recent examination technique, its possibilities and limitations as far as intraocular tumours are concerned, haven't been fully explored yet. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We have studied 50 cases of non-pigmented choroidal tumours, including 14 cases of choroidal hemangioma's, 11 cases of posterior uveal metastases and 25 cases of non-pigmented melanoma's. RESULTS: Characteristic images were obtained when examining choroidal hemangioma's and, until a certain point, posterior choroidal metastases. Non pigmented melanoma's on the contrary, presented a great variety of different indocyanine green angiographic pictures. CONCLUSION: Indocyanine green video-angiography (ICG) has a definite value in the differential diagnosis of non-pigmented posterior choroidal tumours.

What is the value of hypothermia in acute neurologic diseases and status epilepticus?

Patients with status epilepticus that proves refractory to anesthetic agents represent a daunting challenge for treating clinicians. Animal data support the neuroprotective action of brain hypothermia, and its efficacy in status epilepticus models. This approach, targeting a core temperature of about 33°C for at least 24 hours together with pharmacological sedation, has been described in adults and children. However, although relatively safe if concomitant barbiturates are avoided, it seems that mild hypothermia rarely allows a sustained control of ongoing status epilepticus, since seizures tend to recur in normothermia. Conversely, mild hypothermia has a high-evidence level and is increasingly used in postanoxic encephalopathy, both in newborns and adults. Due to the paucity of available clinical data, prospective studies are needed to assess the value of hypothermia in status epilepticus.

Value of PET/CT versus contrast-enhanced CT in identifying chest wall invasion (T3) by NSCLC [B-671]

Purpose: To determine the diagnostic value of 18F-FDG PET/CT versus contrastenhanced CT in identifying chest wall invasion by NSCLC. Methods and Materials: The primary selection criterion was a peripheral tumor of any size with contact to the chest wall. A total of 25 patients with pathologically proven NSCLC satisfied these criteria. Chest wall invasion was interpreted upon PET/CT when a frank costal or intercostal 18F-FDG uptake was identified with or without concomitant morphologic alterations. On the other hand, the existence of periosteal rib reaction/erosion, chest wall thickening or obliteration of the pleural fat layer either separately or combined were considered essential diagnostic criteria for disease extension into the chest wall upon contrast-enhanced CT. The results were correlated with the final histological analysis. Results: Among the studied cohort, 13/25 (52%) patients had chest wall invasion consistent with T3 disease. Both PET/CT and contrast-enhanced CT successfully identified 12/13 (92%) of these patients. The single false-negative result was due to parietal pleural invasion. On the other hand, one false-positive result was encountered by PET/CT in a dyspneic patient; whereas, CT analysis revealed false-positive results in six patients. In these patients, periosteal rib reaction (n = 2) or asymmetric enlargement of adjacent chest wall muscles (n = 1) were identified along with an obliterated pleural fat layer (n = 6). The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of PET/CT and contrast-enhanced CT were 92, 91 and 92% versus 92, 50 and 72%. Conclusion: 18F-FDG PET/CT is an accurate diagnostic modality in identifying.

Public health value of fixed-dose combinations in hypertension.

It is well documented that reducing blood pressure (BP) in hypertensive individuals reduces the risk of cardiovascular (CV) events. Despite this, many patients with hypertension remain untreated or inadequately treated, and fail to reach the recommended BP goals. Suboptimal BP control, whilst arising from multiple causes, is often due to poor patient compliance and/or persistence, and results in a significant health and economic burden on society. The use of fixed-dose combinations (FDCs) for the treatment of hypertension has the potential to increase patient compliance and persistence. When compared with antihypertensive monotherapies, FDCs may also offer equivalent or better efficacy, and the same or improved tolerability. As a result, FDCs have the potential to reduce both the CV event rates and the non-drug healthcare costs associated with hypertension. When FDCs are adopted for the treatment of hypertension, issues relating to copayment, formulary restrictions and therapeutic reference pricing must be addressed.