Feature tracking on the unit-sphere

Techniques used in a previous study of the objective identification and tracking of meteorological features in model data are extended to the unit sphere. An alternative feature detection scheme is described based on cubic interpolation for the sphere and local maximization. The extension of the tracking technique, used in the previous study, to the unit sphere is described. An example of the application of these techniques to a global relative vorticity field from a model integration are presented and discussed.

A general-method for tracking analysis and its application to meteorological data

Recent interest in the validation of general circulation models (GCMs) has been devoted to objective methods. A small number of authors have used the direct synoptic identification of phenomena together with a statistical analysis to perform the objective comparison between various datasets. This paper describes a general method for performing the synoptic identification of phenomena that can be used for an objective analysis of atmospheric, or oceanographic, datasets obtained from numerical models and remote sensing. Methods usually associated with image processing have been used to segment the scene and to identify suitable feature points to represent the phenomena of interest. This is performed for each time level. A technique from dynamic scene analysis is then used to link the feature points to form trajectories. The method is fully automatic and should be applicable to a wide range of geophysical fields. An example will be shown of results obtained from this method using data obtained from a run of the Universities Global Atmospheric Modelling Project GCM.

A comparison of recent reanalysis datasets using objective feature tracking: Storm tracks and tropical easterly waves

Data from four recent reanalysis projects [ECMWF, NCEP-NCAR, NCEP - Department of Energy ( DOE), NASA] have been diagnosed at the scale of synoptic weather systems using an objective feature tracking method. The tracking statistics indicate that, overall, the reanalyses correspond very well in the Northern Hemisphere (NH) lower troposphere, although differences for the spatial distribution of mean intensities show that the ECMWF reanalysis is systematically stronger in the main storm track regions but weaker around major orographic features. A direct comparison of the track ensembles indicates a number of systems with a broad range of intensities that compare well among the reanalyses. In addition, a number of small-scale weak systems are found that have no correspondence among the reanalyses or that only correspond upon relaxing the matching criteria, indicating possible differences in location and/or temporal coherence. These are distributed throughout the storm tracks, particularly in the regions known for small-scale activity, such as secondary development regions and the Mediterranean. For the Southern Hemisphere (SH), agreement is found to be generally less consistent in the lower troposphere with significant differences in both track density and mean intensity. The systems that correspond between the various reanalyses are considerably reduced and those that do not match span a broad range of storm intensities. Relaxing the matching criteria indicates that there is a larger degree of uncertainty in both the location of systems and their intensities compared with the NH. At upper-tropospheric levels, significant differences in the level of activity occur between the ECMWF reanalysis and the other reanalyses in both the NH and SH winters. This occurs due to a lack of coherence in the apparent propagation of the systems in ERA15 and appears most acute above 500 hPa. This is probably due to the use of optimal interpolation data assimilation in ERA15. Also shown are results based on using the same techniques to diagnose the tropical easterly wave activity. Results indicate that the wave activity is sensitive not only to the resolution and assimilation methods used but also to the model formulation.

A Filter for Visual Tracking Based on a Stochastic Model for Driver Behaviour

A driver controls a car by turning the steering wheel or by pressing on the accelerator or the brake. These actions are modelled by Gaussian processes, leading to a stochastic model for the motion of the car. The stochastic model is the basis of a new filter for tracking and predicting the motion of the car, using measurements obtained by fitting a rigid 3D model to a monocular sequence of video images. Experiments show that the filter easily outperforms traditional filters.

Storm tracking and ensemble prediction

The prediction of extratropical cyclones by the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Ensemble Prediction Systems (EPS) is investigated using a storm-tracking forecast verifica-tion methodology. The cyclones are identified and tracked along the forecast trajectories so that statistics can be generated to determine the rate at which the position and intensity of the forecasted cyclones diverge from the corresponding analysed cyclones with forecast time. Overall the ECMWF EPS has a slightly higher level of performance than the NCEP EPS. However, in the southern hemisphere the NCEP EPS has a slightly higher level of skill for the intensity of the storms. The results from both EPS indicate a higher level of predictive skill for the position of extratropical cyclones than their intensity and show that there is a larger spread in intensity than position. The results also illustrate several benefits an EPS can offer over a deterministic forecast.

Storm Tracking and eScience

A new 'storm-tracking approach' to analysing the prediction of storms by different forecast systems has recently been developed. This paper provides a brief illustration of the type of results/information that can be obtained using the approach. It also describes in detail how eScience methodologies have been used to help apply the storm-tracking approach to very large datasets

Modelling habitat selection and distribution of the critically endangered Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus in scrub jungle: an application of a new tracking method

1. Jerdon's courser Rhinoptilus bitorquatus is a nocturnally active cursorial bird that is only known to occur in a small area of scrub jungle in Andhra Pradesh, India, and is listed as critically endangered by the IUCN. Information on its habitat requirements is needed urgently to underpin conservation measures. We quantified the habitat features that correlated with the use of different areas of scrub jungle by Jerdon's coursers, and developed a model to map potentially suitable habitat over large areas from satellite imagery and facilitate the design of surveys of Jerdon's courser distribution. 2. We used 11 arrays of 5-m long tracking strips consisting of smoothed fine soil to detect the footprints of Jerdon's coursers, and measured tracking rates (tracking events per strip night). We counted the number of bushes and trees, and described other attributes of vegetation and substrate in a 10-m square plot centred on each strip. We obtained reflectance data from Landsat 7 satellite imagery for the pixel within which each strip lay. 3. We used logistic regression models to describe the relationship between tracking rate by Jerdon's coursers and characteristics of the habitat around the strips, using ground-based survey data and satellite imagery. 4. Jerdon's coursers were most likely to occur where the density of large (>2 m tall) bushes was in the range 300-700 ha(-1) and where the density of smaller bushes was less than 1000 ha(-1). This habitat was detectable using satellite imagery. 5. Synthesis and applications. The occurrence of Jerdon's courser is strongly correlated with the density of bushes and trees, and is in turn affected by grazing with domestic livestock, woodcutting and mechanical clearance of bushes to create pasture, orchards and farmland. It is likely that there is an optimal level of grazing and woodcutting that would maintain or create suitable conditions for the species. Knowledge of the species' distribution is incomplete and there is considerable pressure from human use of apparently suitable habitats. Hence, distribution mapping is a high conservation priority. A two-step procedure is proposed, involving the use of ground surveys of bush density to calibrate satellite image-based mapping of potential habitat. These maps could then be used to select priority areas for Jerdon's courser surveys. The use of tracking strips to study habitat selection and distribution has potential in studies of other scarce and secretive species.

Tracking larval insect movement within soil using high resolution X-ray microtomography

1. In contrast to above-ground insects, comparatively little is known about the behaviour of subterranean insects, due largely to the difficulty of studying them in situ. 2. The movement of newly hatched (neonate) clover root weevil (Sitona lepidus L. Coleoptera: Curculinidae) larvae was studied non-invasively using recently developed high resolution X-ray microtomography. 3. The movement and final position of S. lepidus larvae in the soil was reliably established using X-ray microtomography, when compared with larval positions that were determined by destructively sectioning the soil column. 4. Newly hatched S. lepidus larvae were seen to attack the root rhizobial nodules of their host plant, white clover (Trifolium repens L.). Sitona lepidus larvae travelled between 9 and 27 mm in 9 h at a mean speed of 1.8 mm h(-1). 5. Sitona lepidus larvae did not move through the soil in a linear manner, but changed trajectory in both the lateral and vertical planes.

Modeling the user knowledge by belief networks

This paper describes the user modeling component of EPIAIM, a consultation system for data analysis in epidemiology. The component is aimed at representing knowledge of concepts in the domain, so that their explanations can be adapted to user needs. The first part of the paper describes two studies aimed at analysing user requirements. The first one is a questionnaire study which examines the respondents' familiarity with concepts. The second one is an analysis of concept descriptions in textbooks and from expert epidemiologists, which examines how discourse strategies are tailored to the level of experience of the expected audience. The second part of the paper describes how the results of these studies have been used to design the user modeling component of EPIAIM. This module works in a two-step approach. In the first step, a few trigger questions allow the activation of a stereotype that includes a "body" and an "inference component". The body is the representation of the body of knowledge that a class of users is expected to know, along with the probability that the knowledge is known. In the inference component, the learning process of concepts is represented as a belief network. Hence, in the second step the belief network is used to refine the initial default information in the stereotype's body. This is done by asking a few questions on those concepts where it is uncertain whether or not they are known to the user, and propagating this new evidence to revise the whole situation. The system has been implemented on a workstation under UNIX. An example of functioning is presented, and advantages and limitations of the approach are discussed.

User interface standards for expert systems: are they appropriate?

In recent years there has been a growing debate over whether or not standards should be produced for user system interfaces. Those in favor of standardization argue that standards in this area will result in more usable systems, while those against argue that standardization is neither practical nor desirable. The present paper reviews both sides of this debate in relation to expert systems. It argues that in many areas guidelines are more appropriate than standards for user interface design.