Conditioned food aversion to control poisoning by Ipomoea carnea subsp. fistulosa in goats

Para testar a técnica de aversão alimentar condicionada como método de controle para a intoxicação por I. carnea, foram realizados 3 experimentos administrando cloreto de lítio (LiCl) na dose de 175-200mg kg-1 após a ingestão da planta por caprinos. No primeiro, foram induzidos à aversão 10 caprinos que tinham o hábito de ingerir a planta e com sinais clínicos da intoxicação. Apesar da realização de diversos tratamentos aversivos, após os animais ingerirem a planta, a aversão não foi eficiente, demonstrando que a técnica não é eficiente em caprinos que já estão habituados a ingerir a planta. No segundo experimento, 14 caprinos foram adaptados a ingerir a planta na pastagem e, após ingerirem a planta a campo, foram induzidos à aversão com LiCl. Neste grupo, a aversão persistiu até o fim do Experimento, 2 anos e 8 meses após a aversão. Em outro experimento, 20 caprinos foram adaptados a consumir I. carnea e, em seguida, induzidos à aversão com LiCl. Esses animais foram transferidos para uma propriedade na Ilha de Marajó, onde foram realizadas 9 visitas com intervalos de 2-3 meses para verificar a duração da aversão. Após 2 anos de observações, nenhum animal voltou a ingerir a planta na pastagem e não foram observados casos de intoxicação, enquanto que, em 6 propriedades vizinhas, a doença foi observada com uma prevalência de até 60%. Esses resultados demonstram a eficiência da aversão alimentar condicionada para evitar a ingestão de I. carnea em caprinos recém adaptados a ingerir a planta, nas regiões invadidas por esta planta e nas condições naturais da Ilha de Marajó.

Methods of inducing conditioned food aversion to Baccharis coridifolia (mio-mio) in cattle

Foram realizados três experimentos para determinar a eficácia de vários métodos de aversão a Baccharis coridifolia em bovinos: administração oral forçada de 0,5g kg^-1 de peso vivo de B. coridifolia fresca; inalação forçada da fumaça proveniente da queima de B. coridifolia e esfregação da planta no focinho e na boca dos animais; e introdução dos animais em pastagens com baixa infestação por B. coridifolia. Os resultados demonstraram que os animais forçados a ingerir pequenas doses tornaram-se fortemente avertidos, quando introduzidos nos piquetes entre 23 a 26 horas após a aversão. Entretanto, bovinos introduzidos nos piquetes após 1 a 10 horas não foram totalmente avertidos. Inalação da fumaça de B. coridifolia e esfregação da planta no focinho e boca dos animais não foram eficientes para produzir aversão. A introdução de bovinos em piquetes com aproximadamente 1% de B. coridifolia foi eficiente quando os animais permaneceram cinco meses na área, mas não quando ficaram apenas 60 horas, pois os bovinos precisam de tempo para aprender a evitar a planta.

Conditioned food aversion to Ipomoea carnea var. fistulosa induced by Baccharis coridifolia in goats

Baccharis coridifolia é uma planta tóxica que possui forte poder aversivo em ruminantes. Os objetivos deste trabalho foram induzir aversão condicionada a Ipomoea carnea avar. fistulos em caprinos utilizando B. coridifolia como agente aversivo e comparar a eficiência desta aversão com a aversão induzida por cloreto de lítio (LiCl). Treze cabras foram divididas em dois grupos: o Grupo 1 com seis cabras foi avertido com 175mg/kg de peso corporal (pc) de LiCl e o Grupo 2, com sete cabras, foi avertido com 0,25g/kg de pc de B. coridifolia seco. Todas as cabras foram avertidas no dia 1 logo após a ingestão de I.carnea. A aversão foi repetida nos dias 2, 3 e 7 nos caprinos que ingeriram qualquer quantidade de I. carnea, utilizando-se o mesmo procedimento do dia 1. Os caprinos de ambos os grupos foram desafiados nas baias nos dias 23 e 38 após o último dia da aversão e desafiados na pastagem nos dias 11, 15, 18, 20, 22, 25, 27 e 29 após o último dia da aversão. Posteriormente os caprinos foram desafiados a cada 15 dias na pastagem até o 330º dia após o último dia da aversão (7º dia). Duas cabras do Grupo 1 ingeriram I. carnea no primeiro dia do desafio na pastagem, quatro dias após o ultimo dia da aversão nas baias. Além disso, outra cabra do mesmo grupo reiniciou a ingestão da planta no 18º dia e outras duas no 20º dia. Uma cabra do Grupo 1 que nunca havia ingerido a planta após a aversão morreu no 55º dia. Uma cabra do Grupo 2 começou a ingerir I. carnea no primeiro dia de desafio na pastagem e uma segunda reiniciou o consumo da planta no 182º dia. No final do experimento no 330º as cinco cabras avertidas com B. coridifolia permaneciam sem ingerir a planta. Estes resultados sugerem que B. coridifolia ou algum princípio ativo dessa planta pode ser utilizado para induzir aversão condicionada a plantas tóxicas. A utilização de B. coridifolia como agente aversivo é aparentemente mais barato e mais fácil de ser utilizado do que o LiCl, o qual requer o uso de sonda oro-gástrica e pessoal qualificado para sua implementação.

The first molecular phylogeny of Chilodontidae (Teleostei: Ostariophysi: Characiformes) reveals cryptic biodiversity and taxonomic uncertainty

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Amazon forest biomass density maps: tackling the uncertainty in carbon emission estimates

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A Fuzzy Goal Programming model for solving aggregate production-planning problems under uncertainty: A case study in a Brazilian sugar mill

This paper proposes a Fuzzy Goal Programming model (FGP) for a real aggregate production-planning problem. To do so, an application was made in a Brazilian Sugar and Ethanol Milling Company. The FGP Model depicts the comprehensive production process of sugar, ethanol, molasses and derivatives, and considers the uncertainties involved in ethanol and sugar production. Decision-makings, related to the agricultural and logistics phases, were considered on a weekly-basis planning horizon to include the whole harvesting season and the periods between harvests. The research has provided interesting results about decisions in the agricultural stages of cutting, loading and transportation to sugarcane suppliers and, especially, in milling decisions, whose choice of production process includes storage and logistics distribution. (C)2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Quantum coherence and uncertainty in the anisotropic XY chain

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A note on model uncertainty in linear regression

We consider model selection uncertainty in linear regression. We study theoretically and by simulation the approach of Buckland and co-workers, who proposed estimating a parameter common to all models under study by taking a weighted average over the models, using weights obtained from information criteria or the bootstrap. This approach is compared with the usual approach in which the 'best' model is used, and with Bayesian model averaging. The weighted predictor behaves similarly to model averaging, with generally more realistic mean-squared errors than the usual model-selection-based estimator.

Fuzzy rule-based system for evaluation of uncertainty transaction in cassava chain

A fuzzy ruled-based system was developed in this study and resulted in an index indicating the level of uncertainty related to commercial transactions between cassava growers and their dealers. The fuzzy system was developed based on Transaction Cost Economics approach. The fuzzy system was developed from input variables regarding information sharing between grower and dealer on “Demand/purchase Forecasting”, “Production Forecasting” and “Production Innovation”. The output variable is the level of uncertainty regarding the transaction between seller and buyer agent, which may serve as a system for detecting inefficiencies. Evidences from 27 cassava growers registered in the Regional Development Offices of Tupa and Assis, São Paulo, Brazil, and 48 of their dealers supported the development of the system. The mathematical model indicated that 55% of the growers present a Very High level of uncertainty, 33% present Medium or High. The others present Low or Very Low level of uncertainty. From the model, simulations of external interferences can be implemented in order to improve the degree of uncertainty and, thus, lower transaction costs.

Accounting for uncertainty in ecological analysis: the strengths and limitations of hierarchical statistical modeling

Analyses of ecological data should account for the uncertainty in the process(es) that generated the data. However, accounting for these uncertainties is a difficult task, since ecology is known for its complexity. Measurement and/or process errors are often the only sources of uncertainty modeled when addressing complex ecological problems, yet analyses should also account for uncertainty in sampling design, in model specification, in parameters governing the specified model, and in initial and boundary conditions. Only then can we be confident in the scientific inferences and forecasts made from an analysis. Probability and statistics provide a framework that accounts for multiple sources of uncertainty. Given the complexities of ecological studies, the hierarchical statistical model is an invaluable tool. This approach is not new in ecology, and there are many examples (both Bayesian and non-Bayesian) in the literature illustrating the benefits of this approach. In this article, we provide a baseline for concepts, notation, and methods, from which discussion on hierarchical statistical modeling in ecology can proceed. We have also planted some seeds for discussion and tried to show where the practical difficulties lie. Our thesis is that hierarchical statistical modeling is a powerful way of approaching ecological analysis in the presence of inevitable but quantifiable uncertainties, even if practical issues sometimes require pragmatic compromises.

Seeking a Second Opinion: Uncertainty in Disease Ecology

Analytical methods accounting for imperfect detection are often used to facilitate reliable inference in population and community ecology. We contend that similar approaches are needed in disease ecology because these complicated systems are inherently difficult to observe without error. For example, wildlife disease studies often designate individuals, populations, or spatial units to states (e.g., susceptible, infected, post-infected), but the uncertainty associated with these state assignments remains largely ignored or unaccounted for. We demonstrate how recent developments incorporating observation error through repeated sampling extend quite naturally to hierarchical spatial models of disease effects, prevalence, and dynamics in natural systems. A highly pathogenic strain of avian influenza virus in migratory waterfowl and a pathogenic fungus recently implicated in the global loss of amphibian biodiversity are used as motivating examples. Both show that relatively simple modifications to study designs can greatly improve our understanding of complex spatio-temporal disease dynamics by rigorously accounting for uncertainty at each level of the hierarchy.

Mapping an uncertainty zone between interpolated types of a categorical variable

Categorical data cannot be interpolated directly because they are outcomes of discrete random variables. Thus, types of categorical variables are transformed into indicator functions that can be handled by interpolation methods. Interpolated indicator values are then backtransformed to the original types of categorical variables. However, aspects such as variability and uncertainty of interpolated values of categorical data have never been considered. In this paper we show that the interpolation variance can be used to map an uncertainty zone around boundaries between types of categorical variables. Moreover, it is shown that the interpolation variance is a component of the total variance of the categorical variables, as measured by the coefficient of unalikeability. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A comparison of deterministic, reliability-based and risk-based structural optimization under uncertainty

In this paper, the effects of uncertainty and expected costs of failure on optimum structural design are investigated, by comparing three distinct formulations of structural optimization problems. Deterministic Design Optimization (DDO) allows one the find the shape or configuration of a structure that is optimum in terms of mechanics, but the formulation grossly neglects parameter uncertainty and its effects on structural safety. Reliability-based Design Optimization (RBDO) has emerged as an alternative to properly model the safety-under-uncertainty part of the problem. With RBDO, one can ensure that a minimum (and measurable) level of safety is achieved by the optimum structure. However, results are dependent on the failure probabilities used as constraints in the analysis. Risk optimization (RO) increases the scope of the problem by addressing the compromising goals of economy and safety. This is accomplished by quantifying the monetary consequences of failure, as well as the costs associated with construction, operation and maintenance. RO yields the optimum topology and the optimum point of balance between economy and safety. Results are compared for some example problems. The broader RO solution is found first, and optimum results are used as constraints in DDO and RBDO. Results show that even when optimum safety coefficients are used as constraints in DDO, the formulation leads to configurations which respect these design constraints, reduce manufacturing costs but increase total expected costs (including expected costs of failure). When (optimum) system failure probability is used as a constraint in RBDO, this solution also reduces manufacturing costs but by increasing total expected costs. This happens when the costs associated with different failure modes are distinct. Hence, a general equivalence between the formulations cannot be established. Optimum structural design considering expected costs of failure cannot be controlled solely by safety factors nor by failure probability constraints, but will depend on actual structural configuration. (c) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fear state induced by diazepam withdrawal may be due to the sensitization of the neural substrates of aversion in the dPAG

This work was supported by FAPESP (P.N. 04/02859-0)