Thermodynamics of the Hydroxyl Radical Addition to Isoprene

Oxidation of isoprene by the hydroxyl radical leads to tropospheric ozone formation. Consequently, a more complete understanding of this reaction could lead to better models of regional air quality, a better understanding of aerosol formation, and a better understanding of reaction kinetics and dynamics. The most common first step in the oxidation of isoprene is the formation of an adduct, with the hydroxyl radical adding to one of four unsaturated carbon atoms in isoprene. In this paper, we discuss how the initial conformations of isoprene, s-trans and s-gauche, influences the pathways to adduct formation. We explore the formation of pre-reactive complexes at low and high temperatures, which are often invoked to explain the negative temperature dependence of this reaction’s kinetics. We show that at higher temperatures the free energy surface indicates that a pre-reactive complex is unlikely, while at low temperatures the complex exists on two reaction pathways. The theoretical results show that at low temperatures all eight pathways possess negative reaction barriers, and reaction energies that range from −36.7 to −23.0 kcal·mol−1. At temperatures in the lower atmosphere, all eight pathways possess positive reaction barriers that range from 3.8 to 6.0 kcal·mol−1 and reaction energies that range from −28.8 to −14.4 kcal·mol−1.

Characterisation of extreme winter precipitation in Mediterranean coastal sites and associated anomalous atmospheric circulation patterns

We present an analysis of daily extreme precipitation events for the extended winter season (October–March) at 20 Mediterranean coastal sites covering the period 1950–2006. The heavy tailed behaviour of precipitation extremes and estimated return levels, including associated uncertainties, are derived applying a procedure based on the Generalized Pareto Distribution, in combination with recently developed methods. Precipitation extremes have an important contribution to make seasonal totals (approximately 60% for all series). Three stations (one in the western Mediterranean and the others in the eastern basin) have a 5-year return level above 100 mm, while the lowest value (estimated for two Italian series) is equal to 58 mm. As for the 50-year return level, an Italian station (Genoa) has the highest value of 264 mm, while the other values range from 82 to 200 mm. Furthermore, six series (from stations located in France, Italy, Greece, and Cyprus) show a significant negative tendency in the probability of observing an extreme event. The relationship between extreme precipitation events and the large scale atmospheric circulation at the upper, mid and low troposphere is investigated by using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data. A 2-step classification procedure identifies three significant anomaly patterns both for the western-central and eastern part of the Mediterranean basin. In the western Mediterranean, the anomalous southwesterly surface to mid-tropospheric flow is connected with enhanced moisture transport from the Atlantic. During ≥5-year return level events, the subtropical jet stream axis is aligned with the African coastline and interacts with the eddy-driven jet stream. This is connected with enhanced large scale ascending motions, instability and leads to the development of severe precipitation events. For the eastern Mediterranean extreme precipitation events, the identified anomaly patterns suggest warm air advection connected with anomalous ascent motions and an increase of the low- to mid-tropospheric moisture. Furthermore, the jet stream position (during ≥5-year return level events) supports the eastern basin being in a divergence area, where ascent motions are favoured. Our results contribute to an improved understanding of daily precipitation extremes in the cold season and associated large scale atmospheric features.

Early ship-based upper-air data and comparison with the Twentieth Century

Extension of 3-D atmospheric data products back into the past is desirable for a wide range of applications. Historical upper-air data are important in this endeavour, particularly in the maritime regions of the tropics and the southern hemisphere, where observations are extremely sparse. Here we present newly digitized and re-evaluated early ship-based upper-air data from two cruises: (1) kite and registering balloon profiles from onboard the ship SMS Planet on a cruise from Europe around South Africa and across the Indian Ocean to the western Pacific in 1906/1907, and (2) ship-based radiosonde data from onboard the MS Schwabenland on a cruise from Europe across the Atlantic to Antarctica and back in 1938/1939. We describe the data and provide estimations of the errors. We compare the data with a recent reanalysis (the Twentieth Century Reanalysis Project, 20CR, Compo et al., 2011) that provides global 3-D data back to the 19th century based on an assimilation of surface pressure data only (plus monthly mean sea-surface temperatures). In cruise (1), the agreement is generally good, but large temperature differences appear during a period with a strong inversion. In cruise (2), after a subset of the data are corrected, close agreement between observations and 20CR is found for geopotential height (GPH) and temperature notwithstanding a likely cold bias of 20CR at the tropopause level. Results are considerably worse for relative humidity, which was reportedly inaccurately measured. Note that comparing 20CR, which has limited skill in the tropical regions, with measurements from ships in remote regions made under sometimes difficult conditions can be considered a worst case assessment. In view of that fact, the anomaly correlations for temperature of 0.3–0.6 in the lower troposphere in cruise (1) and of 0.5–0.7 for tropospheric temperature and GPH in cruise (2) are considered as promising results. Moreover, they are consistent with the error estimations. The results suggest room for further improvement of data products in remote regions.

Measurements of Humidity in the Atmosphere and Validation Experiments MOHAVE-2009; overview of campaign operations and results

The Measurements of Humidity in the Atmosphere and Validation Experiment (MOHAVE) 2009 campaign took place on 11–27 October 2009 at the JPL Table Mountain Facility in California (TMF). The main objectives of the campaign were to (1) validate the water vapor measurements of several instruments, including, three Raman lidars, two microwave radiometers, two Fourier-Transform spectrometers, and two GPS receivers (column water), (2) cover water vapor measurements from the ground to the mesopause without gaps, and (3) study upper tropospheric humidity variability at timescales varying from a few minutes to several days. A total of 58 radiosondes and 20 Frost-Point hygrometer sondes were launched. Two types of radiosondes were used during the campaign. Non negligible differences in the readings between the two radiosonde types used (Vaisala RS92 and InterMet iMet-1) made a small, but measurable impact on the derivation of water vapor mixing ratio by the Frost-Point hygrometers. As observed in previous campaigns, the RS92 humidity measurements remained within 5% of the Frost-point in the lower and mid-troposphere, but were too dry in the upper troposphere. Over 270 h of water vapor measurements from three Raman lidars (JPL and GSFC) were compared to RS92, CFH, and NOAA-FPH. The JPL lidar profiles reached 20 km when integrated all night, and 15 km when integrated for 1 h. Excellent agreement between this lidar and the frost-point hygrometers was found throughout the measurement range, with only a 3% (0.3 ppmv) mean wet bias for the lidar in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere (UTLS). The other two lidars provided satisfactory results in the lower and mid-troposphere (2–5% wet bias over the range 3–10 km), but suffered from contamination by fluorescence (wet bias ranging from 5 to 50% between 10 km and 15 km), preventing their use as an independent measurement in the UTLS. The comparison between all available stratospheric sounders allowed to identify only the largest biases, in particular a 10% dry bias of the Water Vapor Millimeter-wave Spectrometer compared to the Aura-Microwave Limb Sounder. No other large, or at least statistically significant, biases could be observed. Total Precipitable Water (TPW) measurements from six different co-located instruments were available. Several retrieval groups provided their own TPW retrievals, resulting in the comparison of 10 different datasets. Agreement within 7% (0.7 mm) was found between all datasets. Such good agreement illustrates the maturity of these measurements and raises confidence levels for their use as an alternate or complementary source of calibration for the Raman lidars. Tropospheric and stratospheric ozone and temperature measurements were also available during the campaign. The water vapor and ozone lidar measurements, together with the advected potential vorticity results from the high-resolution transport model MIMOSA, allowed the identification and study of a deep stratospheric intrusion over TMF. These observations demonstrated the lidar strong potential for future long-term monitoring of water vapor in the UTLS.

CH4, CO, and H2O spectroscopy for the Sentinel-5 Precursor mission: an assessment with the Total Carbon Column Observing Network measurements

The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) will be part of ESA's Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite platform scheduled for launch in 2015. TROPOMI will monitor methane and carbon monoxide concentrations in the Earth's atmosphere by measuring spectra of back-scattered sunlight in the short-wave infrared (SWIR). S5P will be the first satellite mission to rely uniquely on the spectral window at 4190–4340 cm−1 (2.3 μm) to retrieve CH4 and CO. In this study, we investigated if the absorption features of the three relevant molecules CH4, CO, and H2O are adequately known. To this end, we retrieved total columns of CH4, CO, and H2O from absorption spectra measured by two ground-based Fourier transform spectrometers that are part of the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON). The retrieval results from the 4190–4340 cm−1 range at the TROPOMI resolution (0.45 cm−1) were then compared to the CH4 results obtained from the 6000 cm−1 region, and the CO results obtained from the 4190–4340 cm−1 region at the higher TCCON resolution (0.02 cm−1). For TROPOMI-like settings, we were able to reproduce the CH4 columns to an accuracy of 0.3% apart from a constant bias of 1%. The CO retrieval accuracy was, through interference, systematically influenced by the shortcomings of the CH4 and H2O spectroscopy. In contrast to CH4, the CO column error also varied significantly with atmospheric H2O content. Unaddressed, this would introduce seasonal and latitudinal biases to the CO columns retrieved from TROPOMI measurements. We therefore recommend further effort from the spectroscopic community to be directed at the H2O and CH4 spectroscopy in the 4190–4340 cm−1 region.

Differential GPS as a monitoring tool on Volcano Santa Ana (Illamatepec) and the Coatepeque Caldera, El Salvador

We used differential GPS measurements from a 13 station GPS network spanning the Santa Ana Volcano and Coatepeque Caldera to characterize the inter-eruptive activity and tectonic movements near these two active and potentially hazardous features. Caldera-forming events occurred from 70-40 ka and at Santa Ana/Izalco volcanoes eruptive activity occurred as recently as 2005. Twelve differential stations were surveyed for 1 to 2 hours on a monthly basis from February through September 2009 and tied to a centrally located continuous GPS station, which serves as the reference site for this volcanic network. Repeatabilities of the averages from 20-minute sessions taken over 20 hours or longer range from 2-11 mm in the horizontal (north and east) components of the inter-station baselines, suggesting a lower detection limit for the horizontal components of any short-term tectonic or volcanic deformation. Repeatabilities of the vertical baseline component range from 12-34 mm. Analysis of the precipitable water vapor in the troposphere suggests that tropospheric decorrelation as a function of baseline lengths and variable site elevations are the most likely sources of vertical error. Differential motions of the 12 sites relative to the continuous reference site reveal inflation from February through July at several sites surrounding the caldera with vertical displacements that range from 61 mm to 139 mm followed by a lower magnitude deflation event on 1.8-7.4 km-long baselines. Uplift rates for the inflationary period reach 300 mm/yr with 1σ uncertainties of +/- 26 – 119 mm. Only one other station outside the caldera exhibits a similar deformation trend, suggesting a localized source. The results suggest that the use of differential GPS measurements from short duration occupations over short baselines can be a useful monitoring tool at sub-tropical volcanoes and calderas.

Nitrogen Oxides in the North Atlantic Troposphere: Impacts of Boreal Wildfire and Anthropogenic Emissions

Nitrogen oxides play a crucial role in the budget of tropospheric ozone (O sub(3)) and the formation of the hydroxyl radical. Anthropogenic activities and boreal wildfires are large sources of emissions in the atmosphere. However, the influence of the transport of these emissions on nitrogen oxides and O sub(3) levels at hemispheric scales is not well understood, in particular due to a lack of nitrogen oxides measurements in remote regions. In order to address these deficiencies, measurements of NO, NO sub(2) and NO sub(y) (total reactive nitrogen oxides) were made in the lower free troposphere (FT) over the central North Atlantic region (Pico Mountain station, 38 degree N 28 degree W, 2.3 km asl) from July 2002 to August 2005. These measurements reveal a well-defined seasonal cycle of nitrogen oxides (NO sub(x) = NO+NO sub(2) and NO sub(y)) in the background central North Atlantic lower FT, with higher mixing ratios during the summertime. Observed NO sub(x) and NO sub(y) levels are consistent with long-range transport of emissions, but with significant removal en-route to the measurement site. Reactive nitrogen largely exists in the form of PAN and HNO sub(3) ( similar to 80-90% of NO sub(y)) all year round. A shift in the composition of NO sub(y) from dominance of PAN to dominance of HNO sub(3) occurs from winter-spring to summer-fall, as a result of changes in temperature and photochemistry over the region. Analysis of the long-range transport of boreal wildfire emissions on nitrogen oxides provides evidence of the very large-scale impacts of boreal wildfires on the tropospheric NO sub(x) and O sub(3) budgets. Boreal wildfire emissions are responsible for significant shifts in the nitrogen oxides distributions toward higher levels during the summer, with medians of NO sub(y) (117-175 pptv) and NO sub(x) (9-30 pptv) greater in the presence of boreal wildfire emissions. Extreme levels of NO sub(x) (up to 150 pptv) and NO sub(y) (up to 1100 pptv) observed in boreal wildfire plumes suggest that decomposition of PAN to NO sub(x) is a significant source of NO sub(x), and imply that O sub(3) formation occurs during transport. Ozone levels are also significantly enhanced in boreal wildfire plumes. However, a complex behavior of O sub(3) is observed in the plumes, which varies from significant to lower O sub(3) production to O sub(3) destruction. Long-range transport of anthropogenic emissions from North America also has a significant influence on the regional NO sub(x) and O sub(3) budgets. Transport of pollution from North America causes significant enhancements on nitrogen oxides year-round. Enhancements of CO, NO sub(y) and NO sub(x) indicate that, consistent with previous studies, more than 95% of the NO sub(x) emitted over the U.S. is removed before and during export out of the U.S. boundary layer. However, about 30% of the NO sub(x) emissions exported out of the U.S. boundary layer remain in the airmasses. Since the lifetime of NO sub(x) is shorter than the transport timescale, PAN decomposition and potentially photolysis of HNO sub(3) provide a supply of NO sub(x) over the central North Atlantic lower FT. Observed Delta O sub(3)/ Delta NO sub(y) and large NO sub(y) levels remaining in the North American plumes suggest potential O sub(3) formation well downwind from North America. Finally, a comparison of the nitrogen oxides measurements with results from the global chemical transport (GCT) model GEOS-Chem identifies differences between the observations and the model. GEOS-Chem reproduces the seasonal variation of nitrogen oxides over the central North Atlantic lower FT, but does not capture the magnitude of the cycles. Improvements in our understanding of nitrogen oxides chemistry in the remote FT and emission sources are necessary for the current GCT models to adequately estimate the impacts of emissions on tropospheric NO sub(x) and the resulting impacts on the O sub(3) budget.

Impact of volcanic stratospheric aerosols on diurnal temperature range in Europe over the past 200 years: Observations versus model simulations

We analyze the impact of stratospheric volcanic aerosols on the diurnal temperature range (DTR) over Europe using long-term subdaily station records. We compare the results with a 28-member ensemble of European Centre/Hamburg version 5.4 (ECHAM5.4) general circulation model simulations. Eight stratospheric volcanic eruptions during the instrumental period are investigated. Seasonal all- and clear-sky DTR anomalies are compared with contemporary (approximately 20 year) reference periods. Clear sky is used to eliminate cloud effects and better estimate the signal from the direct radiative forcing of the volcanic aerosols. We do not find a consistent effect of stratospheric aerosols on all-sky DTR. For clear skies, we find average DTR anomalies of −0.08°C (−0.13°C) in the observations (in the model), with the largest effect in the second winter after the eruption. Although the clear-sky DTR anomalies from different stations, volcanic eruptions, and seasons show heterogeneous signals in terms of order of magnitude and sign, the significantly negative DTR anomalies (e.g., after the Tambora eruption) are qualitatively consistent with other studies. Referencing with clear-sky DTR anomalies to the radiative forcing from stratospheric volcanic eruptions, we find the resulting sensitivity to be of the same order of magnitude as previously published estimates for tropospheric aerosols during the so-called “global dimming” period (i.e., 1950s to 1980s). Analyzing cloud cover changes after volcanic eruptions reveals an increase in clear-sky days in both data sets. Quantifying the impact of stratospheric volcanic eruptions on clear-sky DTR over Europe provides valuable information for the study of the radiative effect of stratospheric aerosols and for geo-engineering purposes.

A global historical ozone data set and prominent features of stratospheric variability prior to 1979

We present a vertically resolved zonal mean monthly mean global ozone data set spanning the period 1901 to 2007, called HISTOZ.1.0. It is based on a new approach that combines information from an ensemble of chemistry climate model (CCM) simulations with historical total column ozone information. The CCM simulations incorporate important external drivers of stratospheric chemistry and dynamics (in particular solar and volcanic effects, greenhouse gases and ozone depleting substances, sea surface temperatures, and the quasi-biennial oscillation). The historical total column ozone observations include ground-based measurements from the 1920s onward and satellite observations from 1970 to 1976. An off-line data assimilation approach is used to combine model simulations, observations, and information on the observation error. The period starting in 1979 was used for validation with existing ozone data sets and therefore only ground-based measurements were assimilated. Results demonstrate considerable skill from the CCM simulations alone. Assimilating observations provides additional skill for total column ozone. With respect to the vertical ozone distribution, assimilating observations increases on average the correlation with a reference data set, but does not decrease the mean squared error. Analyses of HISTOZ.1.0 with respect to the effects of El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and of the 11 yr solar cycle on stratospheric ozone from 1934 to 1979 qualitatively confirm previous studies that focussed on the post-1979 period. The ENSO signature exhibits a much clearer imprint of a change in strength of the Brewer–Dobson circulation compared to the post-1979 period. The imprint of the 11 yr solar cycle is slightly weaker in the earlier period. Furthermore, the total column ozone increase from the 1950s to around 1970 at northern mid-latitudes is briefly discussed. Indications for contributions of a tropospheric ozone increase, greenhouse gases, and changes in atmospheric circulation are found. Finally, the paper points at several possible future improvements of HISTOZ.1.0.

Influence of the sunspot cycle on the Northern Hemisphere wintertime circulation from long upper-air data sets

Here we present a study of the 11 yr sunspot cycle's imprint on the Northern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation, using three recently developed gridded upper-air data sets that extend back to the early twentieth century. We find a robust response of the tropospheric late-wintertime circulation to the sunspot cycle, independent from the data set. This response is particularly significant over Europe, although results show that it is not directly related to a North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) modulation; instead, it reveals a significant connection to the more meridional Eurasian pattern (EU). The magnitude of mean seasonal temperature changes over the European land areas locally exceeds 1 K in the lower troposphere over a sunspot cycle. We also analyse surface data to address the question whether the solar signal over Europe is temporally stable for a longer 250 yr period. The results increase our confidence in the existence of an influence of the 11 yr cycle on the European climate, but the signal is much weaker in the first half of the period compared to the second half. The last solar minimum (2005 to 2010), which was not included in our analysis, shows anomalies that are consistent with our statistical results for earlier solar minima.

The role of upper-level dynamics and surface processes for the Pakistan flood of July 2010

In July and August 2010 floods of unprecedented impact afflicted Pakistan. The floods resulted from a series of intense multi-day precipitation events in July and early August. At the same time a series of blocking anticyclones dominated the upper-level flow over western Russia and breaking waves i.e. equatorward extrusions of stratospheric high potential vorticity (PV) air formed along the downstream flank of the blocks. Previous studies suggested that these extratropical upper-level breaking waves were crucial for instigating the precipitation events in Pakistan. Here a detailed analysis is provided of the extratropical forcing of the precipitation. Piecewise PV inversion is used to quantify the extratropical upper-level forcing associated with the wave breaking and trajectories are calculated to study the pathways and source regions of the moisture that precipitated over Pakistan. Limited-area model simulations are carried out to complement the Lagrangian analysis. The precipitation events over Pakistan resulted from a combination of favourable boundary conditions with strong extratropical and monsoonal forcing factors. Above-normal sea-surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean led to an elevated lower-tropospheric moisture content. Surface monsoonal depressions ensured the transport of moist air from the ocean towards northeastern Pakistan. Along this pathway the air parcel humidity increased substantially (60–90% of precipitated moisture) via evapotranspiration from the land surface. Extratropical breaking waves influenced the surface wind field substantially by enhancing the wind component directed towards the mountains which reinforced the precipitation.

Is there a common pattern of future gas-phase air pollution in Europe under diverse climate change scenarios?

Climate change alone influences future levels of tropospheric ozone and their precursors through modifications of gas-phase chemistry, transport, removal, and natural emissions. The goal of this study is to determine at what extent the modes of variability of gas-phase pollutants respond to different climate change scenarios over Europe. The methodology includes the use of the regional modeling system MM5 (regional climate model version)-CHIMERE for a target domain covering Europe. Two full-transient simulations covering from 1991–2050 under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios driven by ECHO-G global circulation model have been compared. The results indicate that the spatial patterns of variability for tropospheric ozone are similar for both scenarios, but the magnitude of the change signal significantly differs for A2 and B2. The 1991–2050 simulations share common characteristics for their chemical behavior. As observed from the NO2 and α-pinene modes of variability, our simulations suggest that the enhanced ozone chemical activity is driven by a number of parameters, such as the warming-induced increase in biogenic emissions and, to a lesser extent, by the variation in nitrogen dioxide levels. For gas-phase pollutants, the general increasing trend for ozone found under A2 and B2 forcing is due to a multiplicity of climate factors, such as increased temperature, decreased wet removal associated with an overall decrease of precipitation in southern Europe, increased photolysis of primary and secondary pollutants as a consequence of lower cloudiness and increased biogenic emissions fueled by higher temperatures.

Warm Conveyor Belts in the ERA-Interim Dataset (1979–2010): Part I: Climatology and Potential Vorticity Evolution

A global climatology of warm conveyor belts (WCBs) is presented for the years 1979–2010, based on trajectories calculated with Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data. WCB trajectories are identified as strongly ascending air parcels (600 hPa in 2 days) near extratropical cyclones. Corroborating earlier studies, WCBs are more frequent during winter than summer and they ascend preferentially in the western ocean basins between 25° and 50° latitude. Before ascending, WCB trajectories typically approach from the subtropics in summer and from more midlatitude regions in winter. Considering humidity, cloud water, and potential temperature along WCBs confirms that they experience strong condensation and integrated latent heating during the ascent (typically >20 K). Liquid and ice water contents along WCBs peak at about 700 and 550 hPa, respectively. The mean potential vorticity (PV) evolution shows typical tropospheric values near 900 hPa, followed by an increase to almost 1 potential vorticity unit (PVU) at 700 hPa, and a decrease to less than 0.5 PVU at 300 hPa. These low PV values in the upper troposphere constitute significant negative anomalies with amplitudes of 1–3 PVU, which can strongly influence the downstream flow. Considering the low-level diabatic PV production, (i) WCBs starting at low latitudes (<40°) are unlikely to attain high PV (due to weak planetary vorticity) although they exhibit the strongest latent heating, and (ii) for those ascending at higher latitudes, a strong vertical heating gradient and high absolute vorticity are both important. This study therefore provides climatological insight into the cloud diabatic formation of significant positive and negative PV anomalies in the extratropical lower and upper troposphere, respectively.

A 200 Year Sub-Annual Record of Sulfate in West Antarctica, from Sixteen Ice Cores

Sixteen high-resolution ice-core records from West Antarctica and South Pole are used to examine the spatial and temporal distribution of sulfate for the last 200 years. The preservation of seasonal layers throughout the length of each record results in a dating accuracy of better than 1 year based on known global-scale volcanic events. A dual transport source for West Antarctic sea-salt (ss) SO42- and excess (xs) SO42- is observed: lower-tropospheric for areas below 1000m elevation and mid-/upper-tropospheric/stratospheric for areas located above 1000m. Our XsSO(4)(2-) records with volcanic peaks removed do not display any evidence of an anthropogenic impact on West Antarctic SO42- concentrations but do reveal that a major climate transition takes place over West Antarctica at similar to 1940. Global-scale volcanic eruptions appear as significant peaks in the robust-spline residual xsSO(4)(2-) records from sites located above 1000 m elevation but do not appear in the residual records from sites located below 1000 m.

A 700 Year Record of Southern Hemisphere Extratropical Climate Variability

Annually dated ice cores from West and East Antarctica provide proxies for past changes in atmospheric circulation over Antarctica and portions of the Southern Ocean, temperature in coastal West and East Antarctica, and the frequency of South Polar penetration of El Nino events. During the period (AD) 1700-1850, atmospheric circulation over the Antarctic and at least portions of the Southern Hemisphere underwent a mode switch departing from the out-of-phase alternation of multi-decadal long phases of EOF1 and EOF2 modes of the 850 hPa field over the Southern Hemisphere (as defined in the recent record by Thompson and Wallace, 2000; Thompson and Solomon, 2002) that characterizes the remainder of the 700 year long record. From (AD) 1700 to 1850, lower-tropospheric circulation was replaced by in-phase behavior of the Amundsen Sea Low component of EOF2 and the East Antarctic High component of EOF1. During the first phase of the mode switch, both West and East Antarctic temperatures declined, potentially in response to the increased extent of sea ice surrounding both regions. At the end of the mode switch, West Antarctic coastal temperatures rose and East Antarctic coastal temperatures fell, respectively, to their second highest and lowest of the record. Polar penetration of El Nino events increased during the mode switch. The onset of the AD 1700-1850 mode switch coincides with the extreme state of the Maunder Minimum in solar variability. Late 20th-century West Antarctic coastal temperatures are the highest in the record period, and East Antarctic coastal temperatures close to the lowest. Since AD 1700, extratropical regions of the Southern Hemisphere have experienced significant climate variability coincident with changes in both solar variability and greenhouse gases.