Domains of physical activity and all-cause mortality: systematic review and dose-response meta-analysis of cohort studies

Background The dose–response relation between physical activity and all-cause mortality is not well defined at present. We conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the association with all-cause mortality of different domains of physical activity and of defined increases in physical activity and energy expenditure. Methods MEDLINE, Embase and the Cochrane Library were searched up to September 2010 for cohort studies examining all-cause mortality across different domains and levels of physical activity in adult general populations. We estimated combined risk ratios (RRs) associated with defined increments and recommended levels, using random-effects meta-analysis and dose–response meta-regression models. Results Data from 80 studies with 1 338 143 participants (118 121 deaths) were included. Combined RRs comparing highest with lowest activity levels were 0.65 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.60–0.71] for total activity, 0.74 (95% CI 0.70–0.77) for leisure activity, 0.64 (95% CI 0.55–0.75) for activities of daily living and 0.83 (95% CI 0.71–0.97) for occupational activity. RRs per 1-h increment per week were 0.91 (95% CI 0.87–0.94) for vigorous exercise and 0.96 (95% CI 0.93–0.98) for moderate-intensity activities of daily living. RRs corresponding to 150 and 300 min/week of moderate to vigorous activity were 0.86 (95% CI 0.80–0.92) and 0.74 (95% CI 0.65–0.85), respectively. Mortality reductions were more pronounced in women. Conclusion Higher levels of total and domain-specific physical activity were associated with reduced all-cause mortality. Risk reduction per unit of time increase was largest for vigorous exercise. Moderate-intensity activities of daily living were to a lesser extent beneficial in reducing mortality.

Meta-analysis and dose-response metaregression: circulating insulin-like growth factor I (IGF-I) and mortality

Context: IGF-I plays a central role in metabolism and growth regulation. High IGF-I levels are associated with increased cancer risk and low IGF-I levels with increased risk for cardiovascular disease. Objective: Our objective was to determine the relationship between circulating IGF-I levels and mortality in the general population using random-effects meta-analysis and dose-response metaregression. Data Sources: We searched PubMed, EMBASE, Web of Science, and Cochrane Library from 1985 to September 2010 to identify relevant studies. Study Selection: Population-based cohort studies and (nested) case-control studies reporting on the relation between circulating IGF-I and mortality were assessed for eligibility. Data Extraction: Data extraction was performed by two investigators independently, using a standardized data extraction sheet. Data Synthesis: Twelve studies, with 14,906 participants, were included. Overall, risk of bias was limited. Mortality in subjects with low or high IGF-I levels was compared with mid-centile reference categories. All-cause mortality was increased in subjects with low as well as high IGF-I, with a hazard ratio (HR) of 1.27 (95% CI = 1.08–1.49) and HR of 1.18 (95% CI = 1.04–1.34), respectively. Dose-response metaregression showed a U-shaped relation of IGF-I and all-cause mortality (P = 0.003). The predicted HR for the increase in mortality comparing the 10th IGF-I with the 50th percentile was 1.56 (95% CI = 1.31–1.86); the predicted HR comparing the 90th with the 50th percentile was 1.29 (95% CI = 1.06–1.58). A U-shaped relationship was present for both cancer mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Conclusions: Both low and high IGF-I concentrations are associated with increased mortality in the general population.

Overview of literature and information on "khat-related" mortality: a call for recognition of the issue and further research

During the past 20 years or so, more has become known about the properties of khat, its pharmacology, physiological and psychological effects on humans. However, at the same time its reputation of social and recreational use in traditional contexts has hindered the dissemination of knowledge about its detrimental effects in terms of mortality. This paper focuses on this particular deficit and adds to the knowledge-base by reviewing the scant literature that does exist on mortality associated with the trade and use of khat. We sought all peer-reviewed papers relating to deaths associated with khat. From an initial list of 111, we identified 15 items meeting our selection criteria. Examination of these revealed 61 further relevant items. These were supplemented with published reports, newspaper and other media reports. A conceptual framework was then developed for classifying mortality associated with each stage of the plant's journey from its cultivation, transportation, consumption, to its effects on the human body. The model is demonstrated with concrete examples drawn from the above sources. These highlight a number of issues for which more substantive statistical data are needed, including population-based studies of the physiological and psychological determinants of khat-related fatalities. Khat-consuming communities, and health professionals charged with their care should be more aware of the physiological and psychological effects of khat, together with the risks for morbidity and mortality associated with its use. There is also a need for information to be collected at international and national levels on other causes of death associated with khat cultivation, transportation, and trade. Both these dimensions need to be understood.

Glucocorticoid Replacement and Mortality in Patients with Nonfunctioning Pituitary Adenoma

Current treatment guidelines generally suggest using lower and weight-adjusted glucocorticoid replacement doses in patients with insufficiency of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. Although data in patients with acromegaly revealed a positive association between glucocorticoid dose and mortality, no comparable results exist in patients with nonfunctioning pituitary adenomas (NFPA).

Complicated intra-abdominal infections in Europe: preliminary data from the first three months of the CIAO Study

The CIAO Study is a multicenter observational study currently underway in 66 European medical institutions over the course of a six-month study period (January-June 2012).This preliminary report overviews the findings of the first half of the study, which includes all data from the first three months of the six-month study period.Patients with either community-acquired or healthcare-associated complicated intra-abdominal infections (IAIs) were included in the study.912 patients with a mean age of 54.4 years (range 4-98) were enrolled in the study during the first three-month period. 47.7% of the patients were women and 52.3% were men. Among these patients, 83.3% were affected by community-acquired IAIs while the remaining 16.7% presented with healthcare-associated infections. Intraperitoneal specimens were collected from 64.2% of the enrolled patients, and from these samples, 825 microorganisms were collectively identified.The overall mortality rate was 6.4% (58/912). According to univariate statistical analysis of the data, critical clinical condition of the patient upon hospital admission (defined by severe sepsis and septic shock) as well as healthcare-associated infections, non-appendicular origin, generalized peritonitis, and serious comorbidities such as malignancy and severe cardiovascular disease were all significant risk factors for patient mortality.White Blood Cell counts (WBCs) greater than 12,000 or less than 4,000 and core body temperatures exceeding 38°C or less than 36°C by the third post-operative day were statistically significant indicators of patient mortality.

Subclinical hyperthyroidism and the risk of coronary heart disease and mortality

Data from prospective cohort studies regarding the association between subclinical hyperthyroidism and cardiovascular outcomes are conflicting.We aimed to assess the risks of total and coronary heart disease (CHD) mortality, CHD events, and atrial fibrillation (AF) associated with endogenous subclinical hyperthyroidism among all available large prospective cohorts.

The Estimation of the Ecological Condition of the City Environment by Methods of Phytoindication (as Applied to the Vasileostrovsky District of St. Petersburg)

The project aimed to use results of contamination of city vegetation with heavy metals and sulphur compounds as the basis for analysing the integral response of trees and shrubs to contamination, through a complex method of phytoindication. The results were used to draw up recommendations on pollution reduction in the city and to develop the method of phytoindication as a means of monitoring environmental pollution in St. Petersburg and other large cities. Field investigations were carried out in August 1996, and 66 descriptions of green areas were made in order to estimate the functional state of plants in the Vasileostrovsky district. Investigations of the spectrum reflecting properties of plants showed considerable variation of albedo meanings of leaves under the influence of various internal and external factors. The results indicated that lime trees most closely reflect the condition of the environment. Practically all the green areas studied were in poor condition, the only exceptions being areas of ash trees, which are more resistant to environmental pollution, and one lime-tree alley in a comparatively unpolluted street. The study identified those types of trees which are more or less resistant to complex environmental pollution and Ms. Terekhina recommends that the species in the present green areas be changed to include a higher number of the more resistant species. The turbidimetric analysis of tree barks for sulphates gave an indication of the level and spatial distribution of each pollutant, and the results also confirmed other findings that electric conductivity is a significant feature in determining the extent of sulphate pollution. In testing for various metals, the lime tree showed the highest contents for all elements except magnesium, copper, zinc, cadmium and strontium, again confirming the species' vulnerability to pollution. Medium rates of concentration in the city and environs showed that city plants concentrate 3 times as many different elements and 10 times more chromium, copper and lead than do those in the suburbs. The second stage of the study was based on the concept of phytoindication, which presupposes that changes in the relation of chemical elements in regional biological circulation under the influence of technogenesis provide a criterion for predicting displacements in people's health. There are certain basic factors in this concept. The first is that all living beings are related ecologically as well as by their evolutionary origin, and that the lower an organism is on the evolutionary scale, the less adaptational reserve it has. The second is that smaller concentrations of chemical elements are needed for toxicological influence on plants than on people and so the former's reactions to geochemical factors are easier to characterise. Visual indicational features of urban plants are well defined and can form the basis of a complex "environment - public health" analysis. Specific plant reactions reflecting atmospheric pollution and other components of urbogeosystems make it possible to determine indication criteria for predicting possible disturbances in the general state of health of the population. Thirdly the results of phytoindication investigations must be taken together with information about public health in the area. It only proved possibly to analyse general indexes of public health based on statistical data from the late 1980s and early 1990s as the data of later years were greatly influenced by social factors. These data show that the rates of illness in St. Petersburg (especially for children) are higher than in Russia as a whole, for most classes of diseases, indicating that the population there is more sensitive to the ecological state of the urban environment. The Vasileostrovsky district had the second highest sick rate for adullts, while the rate of infant mortality in the first year of life was highest there. Ms. Terekhina recommends further studies to more precisely assess the effectiveness of the methods she tested, but has drawn up a proposed map of environmental hazard for the population, taking into account prevailing wind directions.

Impact of left ventricular hypertrophy late after aortic valve replacement for aortic stenosis on cardiovascular morbidity and mortality

AIMS: The goal of this study was to assess the prevalence of left ventricular (LV) hypertrophy in patients with aortic stenosis late (>6 months) after aortic valve replacement and its impact on cardiac-related morbidity and mortality. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a single tertiary centre, echocardiographic data of LV muscle mass were collected. Detailed information of medical history and angiographic data were gathered. Ninety-nine of 213 patients (46%) had LV hypertrophy late (mean 5.8 +/- 5.4 years) after aortic valve replacement. LV hypertrophy was associated with impaired exercise capacity, higher New York Heart Association dyspnoea class, a tendency for more frequent chest pain expressed as higher Canadian Cardiovascular Society class, and more rehospitalizations. 24% of patients with normal LV mass vs. 39% of patients with LV hypertrophy reported cardiac-related morbidity (p = 0.04). In a multivariate logistic regression model, LV hypertrophy was an independent predictor of cardiac-related morbidity (odds ratio 2.31, 95% CI 1.08 to 5.41), after correction for gender, baseline ejection fraction, and coronary artery disease and its risk factors. Thirty seven deaths occurred during a total of 1959 patient years of follow-up (mean follow-up 9.6 years). Age at aortic valve replacement (hazard ratio 1.85, 95% CI 1.39 to 2.47, for every 5 years increase in age), coexisting coronary artery disease at the time of surgery (hazard ratio 3.36, 95% CI 1.31 to 8.62), and smoking (hazard ratio 4.82, 95% CI 1.72 to 13.45) were independent predictors of overall mortality late after surgery, but not LV hypertrophy. CONCLUSIONS: In patients with aortic valve replacement for isolated aortic stenosis, LV hypertrophy late after surgery is associated with increased morbidity.

A simple presurgical necrotizing enterocolitis-mortality scoring system

OBJECTIVE: To assess the relationship between early laboratory parameters, disease severity, type of management (surgical or conservative) and outcome in necrotizing enterocolitis (NEC). STUDY DESIGN: Retrospective collection and analysis of data from infants treated in a single tertiary care center (1980 to 2002). Data were collected on disease severity (Bell stage), birth weight (BW), gestational age (GA) and pre-intervention laboratory parameters (leukocyte and platelet counts, hemoglobin, lactate, C-reactive protein). RESULTS: Data from 128 infants were sufficient for analysis. Factors significantly associated with survival were Bell stage (P<0.05), lactate (P<0.05), BW and GA (P<0.01, P<0.001, respectively). From receiver operating characteristics curves, the highest predictive value resulted from a score with 0 to 8 points combining BW, Bell stage, lactate and platelet count (P<0.001). At a cutoff level of 4.5 sensitivity and specificity for predicting survival were 0.71 and 0.72, respectively. CONCLUSION: Some single parameters were associated with poor outcome in NEC. Optimal risk stratification was achieved by combining several parameters in a score.

Mortality of HIV-1-infected patients in the first year of antiretroviral therapy: comparison between low-income and high-income countries

BACKGROUND: Highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) is being scaled up in developing countries. We compared baseline characteristics and outcomes during the first year of HAART between HIV-1-infected patients in low-income and high-income settings. METHODS: 18 HAART programmes in Africa, Asia, and South America (low-income settings) and 12 HIV cohort studies from Europe and North America (high-income settings) provided data for 4810 and 22,217, respectively, treatment-naive adult patients starting HAART. All patients from high-income settings and 2725 (57%) patients from low-income settings were actively followed-up and included in survival analyses. FINDINGS: Compared with high-income countries, patients starting HAART in low-income settings had lower CD4 cell counts (median 108 cells per muL vs 234 cells per muL), were more likely to be female (51%vs 25%), and more likely to start treatment with a non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NNRTI) (70%vs 23%). At 6 months, the median number of CD4 cells gained (106 cells per muL vs 103 cells per muL) and the percentage of patients reaching HIV-1 RNA levels lower than 500 copies/mL (76%vs 77%) were similar. Mortality was higher in low-income settings (124 deaths during 2236 person-years of follow-up) than in high-income settings (414 deaths during 20,532 person-years). The adjusted hazard ratio (HR) of mortality comparing low-income with high-income settings fell from 4.3 (95% CI 1.6-11.8) during the first month to 1.5 (0.7-3.0) during months 7-12. The provision of treatment free of charge in low-income settings was associated with lower mortality (adjusted HR 0.23; 95% CI 0.08-0.61). INTERPRETATION: Patients starting HAART in resource-poor settings have increased mortality rates in the first months on therapy, compared with those in developed countries. Timely diagnosis and assessment of treatment eligibility, coupled with free provision of HAART, might reduce this excess mortality.

The National Morbidity, Mortality, and Air Pollution Study Database in R

The NMMAPS data package contains daily mortality, air pollution, and weather data originally assembled as part of the National Morbidity,Mortality, and Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS). The data have recently been updated and are available for 108 United States cities for the years 1987--2000. The package provides tools for building versions of the full database in a structured and reproducible manner. These database derivatives may be more suitable for particular analyses. We describe how to use the package to implement a multi-city time series analysis of mortality and PM(10). In addition we demonstrate how to reproduce recent findings based on the NMMAPS data.

Bayesian Hierarchical Distributed Lag Models for Summer Ozone Exposure and Cardio-Respiratory Mortality

In this paper, we develop Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models for estimating associations between daily variations in summer ozone levels and daily variations in cardiovascular and respiratory (CVDRESP) mortality counts for 19 U.S. large cities included in the National Morbidity Mortality Air Pollution Study (NMMAPS) for the period 1987 - 1994. At the first stage, we define a semi-parametric distributed lag Poisson regression model to estimate city-specific relative rates of CVDRESP associated with short-term exposure to summer ozone. At the second stage, we specify a class of distributions for the true city-specific relative rates to estimate an overall effect by taking into account the variability within and across cities. We perform the calculations with respect to several random effects distributions (normal, t-student, and mixture of normal), thus relaxing the common assumption of a two-stage normal-normal hierarchical model. We assess the sensitivity of the results to: 1) lag structure for ozone exposure; 2) degree of adjustment for long-term trends; 3) inclusion of other pollutants in the model;4) heat waves; 5) random effects distributions; and 6) prior hyperparameters. On average across cities, we found that a 10ppb increase in summer ozone level for every day in the previous week is associated with 1.25 percent increase in CVDRESP mortality (95% posterior regions: 0.47, 2.03). The relative rate estimates are also positive and statistically significant at lags 0, 1, and 2. We found that associations between summer ozone and CVDRESP mortality are sensitive to the confounding adjustment for PM_10, but are robust to: 1) the adjustment for long-term trends, other gaseous pollutants (NO_2, SO_2, and CO); 2) the distributional assumptions at the second stage of the hierarchical model; and 3) the prior distributions on all unknown parameters. Bayesian hierarchical distributed lag models and their application to the NMMAPS data allow us estimation of an acute health effect associated with exposure to ambient air pollution in the last few days on average across several locations. The application of these methods and the systematic assessment of the sensitivity of findings to model assumptions provide important epidemiological evidence for future air quality regulations.

TRENDS IN PARTICULATE MATTER AND MORTALITY: AN APPROACH TO THE ASSESSMENT OF UNMEASURED CONFOUNDING

We propose a method for diagnosing confounding bias under a model which links a spatially and temporally varying exposure and health outcome. We decompose the association into orthogonal components, corresponding to distinct spatial and temporal scales of variation. If the model fully controls for confounding, the exposure effect estimates should be equal at the different temporal and spatial scales. We show that the overall exposure effect estimate is a weighted average of the scale-specific exposure effect estimates. We use this approach to estimate the association between monthly averages of fine particles (PM2.5) over the preceding 12 months and monthly mortality rates in 113 U.S. counties from 2000-2002. We decompose the association between PM2.5 and mortality into two components: 1) the association between “national trends” in PM2.5 and mortality; and 2) the association between “local trends,” defined as county-specificdeviations from national trends. This second component provides evidence as to whether counties having steeper declines in PM2.5 also have steeper declines in mortality relative to their national trends. We find that the exposure effect estimates are different at these two spatio-temporalscales, which raises concerns about confounding bias. We believe that the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the national scale is more likely to be confounded than is the association between trends in PM2.5 and mortality at the local scale. If the association at the national scale is set aside, there is little evidence of an association between 12-month exposure to PM2.5 and mortality.

Seasonal Analyses of Air Pollution and Mortality in 100 U.S. Cities

Time series models relating short-term changes in air pollution levels to daily mortality counts typically assume that the effects of air pollution on the log relative rate of mortality do not vary with time. However, these short-term effects might plausibly vary by season. Changes in the sources of air pollution and meteorology can result in changes in characteristics of the air pollution mixture across seasons. The authors develop Bayesian semi-parametric hierarchical models for estimating time-varying effects of pollution on mortality in multi-site time series studies. The methods are applied to the updated National Morbidity and Mortality Air Pollution Study database for the period 1987--2000, which includes data for 100 U.S. cities. At the national level, a 10 micro-gram/m3 increase in PM(10) at lag 1 is associated with a 0.15 (95% posterior interval: -0.08, 0.39),0.14 (-0.14, 0.42), 0.36 (0.11, 0.61), and 0.14 (-0.06, 0.34) percent increase in mortality for winter, spring, summer, and fall, respectively. An analysis by geographical regions finds a strong seasonal pattern in the northeast (with a peak in summer) and little seasonal variation in the southern regions of the country. These results provide useful information for understanding particle toxicity and guiding future analyses of particle constituent data.

Cellular telephone use and time trends in brain tumour mortality in Switzerland from 1969 to 2002

A rising concern exists that with the widespread use of mobile communication technologies, the incidence of brain tumours may increase. On the basis of data from the Swiss national mortality registry from 1969 to 2002, annual age-standardized brain tumour mortality rates per 100,000 person-years were calculated using the European standard population. Time trend analyses were performed by the Poisson regression for six different age groups in men and women separately. The study period was divided into two intervals: before and after 1987, when the analogue mobile technology was introduced in Switzerland. Age-standardized brain tumour mortality rates ranged between 3.7 and 6.7 for men and 2.5 and 4.4 for women per 100,000 person-years. For the whole study period, a significant increase in brain tumour mortality was observed for men and women in the older age groups (60-74 and 75+ years) but not in the younger ones in whom mobile phone use was more prevalent. Time trend analyses restricted to data from 1987 onwards revealed relatively stable brain tumour mortality rates in all age groups. For instance, the annual change in brain tumour mortality rate for the 45-59-year age group was -0.3% (95% confidence interval: -1.7; 1.1) for men and -0.4% (95% confidence interval:-2.2; 1.3) for women. We conclude that after the introduction of mobile phone technology in Switzerland, brain tumour mortality rates remained stable in all age groups. Our results suggest that mobile phone use is not a strong risk factor in the short term for mortality from brain tumours. Ecological analyses like this, however, are limited in their ability to reveal potentially small increases in risk for diseases with a long latency period.