The lottery-panel task for bi-dimensional parameter-free elicitation of risk attitudes

We propose first, a simple task for the eliciting attitudes toward risky choice, the SGG lottery-panel task, which consists in a series of lotteries constructed to compensate riskier options with higher risk-return trade-offs. Using Principal Component Analysis technique, we show that the SGG lottery-panel task is capable of capturing two dimensions of individual risky decision making i.e. subjects’ average risk taking and their sensitivity towards variations in risk-return. From the results of a large experimental dataset, we confirm that the task systematically captures a number of regularities such as: A tendency to risk averse behavior (only around 10% of choices are compatible with risk neutrality); An attraction to certain payoffs compared to low risk lotteries, compatible with over-(under-) weighting of small (large) probabilities predicted in PT and; Gender differences, i.e. males being consistently less risk averse than females but both genders being similarly responsive to the increases in risk-premium. Another interesting result is that in hypothetical choices most individuals increase their risk taking responding to the increase in return to risk, as predicted by PT, while across panels with real rewards we see even more changes, but opposite to the expected pattern of riskier choices for higher risk-returns. Therefore, we conclude from our data that an “economic anomaly” emerges in the real reward choices opposite to the hypothetical choices. These findings are in line with Camerer's (1995) view that although in many domains, paid subjects probably do exert extra mental effort which improves their performance, choice over money gambles is not likely to be a domain in which effort will improve adherence to rational axioms (p. 635). Finally, we demonstrate that both dimensions of risk attitudes, average risk taking and sensitivity towards variations in the return to risk, are desirable not only to describe behavior under risk but also to explain behavior in other contexts, as illustrated by an example. In the second study, we propose three additional treatments intended to elicit risk attitudes under high stakes and mixed outcome (gains and losses) lotteries. Using a dataset obtained from a hypothetical implementation of the tasks we show that the new treatments are able to capture both dimensions of risk attitudes. This new dataset allows us to describe several regularities, both at the aggregate and within-subjects level. We find that in every treatment over 70% of choices show some degree of risk aversion and only between 0.6% and 15.3% of individuals are consistently risk neutral within the same treatment. We also confirm the existence of gender differences in the degree of risk taking, that is, in all treatments females prefer safer lotteries compared to males. Regarding our second dimension of risk attitudes we observe, in all treatments, an increase in risk taking in response to risk premium increases. Treatment comparisons reveal other regularities, such as a lower degree of risk taking in large stake treatments compared to low stake treatments and a lower degree of risk taking when losses are incorporated into the large stake lotteries. Results that are compatible with previous findings in the literature, for stake size effects (e.g., Binswanger, 1980; Antoni Bosch-Domènech & Silvestre, 1999; Hogarth & Einhorn, 1990; Holt & Laury, 2002; Kachelmeier & Shehata, 1992; Kühberger et al., 1999; B. J. Weber & Chapman, 2005; Wik et al., 2007) and domain effect (e.g., Brooks and Zank, 2005, Schoemaker, 1990, Wik et al., 2007). Whereas for small stake treatments, we find that the effect of incorporating losses into the outcomes is not so clear. At the aggregate level an increase in risk taking is observed, but also more dispersion in the choices, whilst at the within-subjects level the effect weakens. Finally, regarding responses to risk premium, we find that compared to only gains treatments sensitivity is lower in the mixed lotteries treatments (SL and LL). In general sensitivity to risk-return is more affected by the domain than the stake size. After having described the properties of risk attitudes as captured by the SGG risk elicitation task and its three new versions, it is important to recall that the danger of using unidimensional descriptions of risk attitudes goes beyond the incompatibility with modern economic theories like PT, CPT etc., all of which call for tests with multiple degrees of freedom. Being faithful to this recommendation, the contribution of this essay is an empirically and endogenously determined bi-dimensional specification of risk attitudes, useful to describe behavior under uncertainty and to explain behavior in other contexts. Hopefully, this will contribute to create large datasets containing a multidimensional description of individual risk attitudes, while at the same time allowing for a robust context, compatible with present and even future more complex descriptions of human attitudes towards risk.

The role of team leadership in Portuguese child protection teams

The majority of team leadership studies have ignored the specific context in which that leadership takes place and the cyclical correlation of inputs and processes on ongoing performance. It is our contention that leadership is a mediator of team processes and team effectiveness on ongoing functioning of multidisciplinary teams (MDT). The members of 126 multidisciplinary teams responded to a survey on several aspects related to the functioning and leadership of their teams. The results support the hypothesis that leadership does mediate the relationship between reflexivity and effectiveness (i.e. team management performance, boundary spanning and satisfaction) within the team. Theoretically, these findings challenge those of linear models that typically analyse the impact of leadership as something that happens in isolation. Future research should describe and consider not just the team type and tasks but also investigate the roles that context and time play in team leadership.

Team leadership across contexts: a qualitative study

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to compare leadership functions from different team contexts considering context characteristics that contribute to team effectiveness. Design/methodology/approach – A qualitative study was conducted. Seven leaders of multidisciplinary child protection teams (MDTs) and nine managers of an information technology (IT) company took part in semi-structured interviews. The data were analyzed using content analysis with ATLAS.ti. Findings – Results showed that the two types of teams used different performance criteria, with teams from non-profit contexts lacking defined performance criteria. The results also showed that transition leadership functions are more frequently mentioned by IT than by MDT leaders. Moreover, interpersonal leadership functions emerged as independent functions that may occur in both the transition and action phases. Research limitations/implications – Context is paramount for performance criteria definition and for the relevance of certain team leadership functions over others. It also presents some suggestions for improvement to the model of Morgeson et al. (2010a). Practical implications – The results support the idea that there are differences in the leadership functions that are most valued by leaders, depending on the specific team’s context. Results also showed that some non-profit and less task-structured teams lack the specific performance criteria that could help them make more successful interventions. Originality/value – This paper reviews context literature, it shows that the emphasis on team leadership functions can vary across contexts and to the knowledge it is the first that compares the model of Morgeson et al. (2010a) in different contexts.

The impact of cognitive control on children's goal monitoring in a time-based prospective memory task

The present study investigated whether developmental changes in cognitive control may underlie improvements of time-based prospective memory. Five-, 7-, 9-, and 11-year-olds (N = 166) completed a driving simulation task (ongoing task) in which they had to refuel their vehicle at specific points in time (PM task). The availability of cognitive control resources was experimentally manipulated by imposing a secondary task that required divided attention. Children completed the driving simulation task both in a full attention condition and a divided attention condition where they had to carry out a secondary task. Results revealed that older children performed better than younger children on the ongoing task and PM task. Children performed worse on the ongoing and PM tasks in the divided attention condition compared to the full attention condition. With respect to time monitoring in the final interval prior to the PM target, divided attention interacted with age such that older children’s time monitoring was more negatively affected by the secondary task compared to younger children. Results are discussed in terms of developmental shifts from reactive to proactive monitoring strategies.

Machine learning and small robot navigation

Developing successful navigation and mapping strategies is an essential part of autonomous robot research. However, hardware limitations often make for inaccurate systems. This project serves to investigate efficient alternatives to mapping an environment, by first creating a mobile robot, and then applying machine learning to the robot and controlling systems to increase the robustness of the robot system. My mapping system consists of a semi-autonomous robot drone in communication with a stationary Linux computer system. There are learning systems running on both the robot and the more powerful Linux system. The first stage of this project was devoted to designing and building an inexpensive robot. Utilizing my prior experience from independent studies in robotics, I designed a small mobile robot that was well suited for simple navigation and mapping research. When the major components of the robot base were designed, I began to implement my design. This involved physically constructing the base of the robot, as well as researching and acquiring components such as sensors. Implementing the more complex sensors became a time-consuming task, involving much research and assistance from a variety of sources. A concurrent stage of the project involved researching and experimenting with different types of machine learning systems. I finally settled on using neural networks as the machine learning system to incorporate into my project. Neural nets can be thought of as a structure of interconnected nodes, through which information filters. The type of neural net that I chose to use is a type that requires a known set of data that serves to train the net to produce the desired output. Neural nets are particularly well suited for use with robotic systems as they can handle cases that lie at the extreme edges of the training set, such as may be produced by "noisy" sensor data. Through experimenting with available neural net code, I became familiar with the code and its function, and modified it to be more generic and reusable for multiple applications of neural nets.

On Real-Time Monitoring And Control For Efficient Management Of Drinking Water Networks: Barcelona Case Study

Drinking water utilities in urban areas are focused on finding smart solutions facing new challenges in their real-time operation because of limited water resources, intensive energy requirements, a growing population, a costly and ageing infrastructure, increasingly stringent regulations, and increased attention towards the environmental impact of water use. Such challenges force water managers to monitor and control not only water supply and distribution, but also consumer demand. This paper presents and discusses novel methodologies and procedures towards an integrated water resource management system based on advanced ICT technologies of automation and telecommunications for largely improving the efficiency of drinking water networks (DWN) in terms of water use, energy consumption, water loss minimization, and water quality guarantees. In particular, the paper addresses the first results of the European project EFFINET (FP7-ICT2011-8-318556) devoted to the monitoring and control of the DWN in Barcelona (Spain). Results are split in two levels according to different management objectives: (i) the monitoring level is concerned with all the aspects involved in the observation of the current state of a system and the detection/diagnosis of abnormal situations. It is achieved through sensors and communications technology, together with mathematical models; (ii) the control level is concerned with computing the best suitable and admissible control strategies for network actuators as to optimize a given set of operational goals related to the performance of the overall system. This level covers the network control (optimal management of water and energy) and the demand management (smart metering, efficient supply). The consideration of the Barcelona DWN as the case study will allow to prove the general applicability of the proposed integrated ICT solutions and their effectiveness in the management of DWN, with considerable savings of electricity costs and reduced water loss while ensuring the high European standards of water quality to citizens.

Classification of Time-Use Activities for Latin America and the Caribbean (CAUTAL)

The Classification of Time-Use Activities for Latin America and the Caribbean (CAUTAL) is the outcome of an extensive working process undertaken by the Working Group on Gender Statistics of the Statistical Conference of the Americas (SCA) to meet the need of Latin American and Caribbean countries for a gender-sensitive instrument appropriate to the regional context that could be used to harmonize and standardize time-use surveys and produce statistics in this area.

Environment and dispersal paths override life strategies and residence time in determining regional patterns of invasion by alien plants

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Improving Student Engagement and Verbal Behavior Through Cooperative Learning

In this action research study of my classroom of 10th grade Algebra II students, I investigated three related areas. First, I looked at how heterogeneous cooperative groups, where students in the group are responsible to present material, increase the number of students on task and the time on task when compared to individual practice. I noticed that their time on task might have been about the same, but they were communicating with each other mathematically. The second area I examined was the effect heterogeneous cooperative groups had on the teacher’s and the students’ verbal and nonverbal problem solving skills and understanding when compared to individual practice. At the end of the action research, students were questioning each other, and the instructor was answering questions only when the entire group had a question. The third area of data collection focused on what effect heterogeneous cooperative groups had on students’ listening skills when compared to individual practice. In the research I implemented individual quizzes and individual presentations. Both of these had a positive effect on listing in the groups. As a result of this research, I plan to continue implementing the round robin style of in- class practice with heterogeneous grouping and randomly selected individual presentations. For individual accountability I will continue the practice of individual quizzes one to two times a week.

Improving Student Engagement and Verbal Behavior Through Cooperative Learning

In this action research study of my classroom of 10th grade Algebra II students, I investigated three related areas. First, I looked at how heterogeneous cooperative groups, where students in the group are responsible to present material, increase the number of students on task and the time on task when compared to individual practice. I noticed that their time on task might have been about the same, but they were communicating with each other mathematically. The second area I examined was the effect heterogeneous cooperative groups had on the teacher’s and the students’ verbal and nonverbal problem solving skills and understanding when compared to individual practice. At the end of the action research, students were questioning each other, and the instructor was answering questions only when the entire group had a question. The third area of data collection focused on what effect heterogeneous cooperative groups had on students’ listening skills when compared to individual practice. In the research I implemented individual quizzes and individual presentations. Both of these had a positive effect on listing in the groups. As a result of this research, I plan to continue implementing the round robin style of in- class practice with heterogeneous grouping and randomly selected individual presentations. For individual accountability I will continue the practice of individual quizzes one to two times a week.

Effects of Working Full-Time and Studying in the Evening Hours Among Young Apprentices and Trainees

Objective: This research aims to assess apprentices' and trainees' work conditions, psychosocial factors at work, as well as health symptoms after joining the labor force. Background: Despite the fact that there are over 3.5 million young working students in Brazil, this increasing rate brings with it difficult working conditions such as work pressure, heavy workloads, and lack of safety training. Method: This study was carried out in a nongovernmental organization (NGO) with 40 young members of a first job program in the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil. They filled out a comprehensive questionnaire focused on sociodemographic variables, working conditions, and health symptoms. Individual and collective semi-structured interviews were conducted. Empirical data analysis was performed using analysis of content. Results: The majority of participants mentioned difficulties in dealing with the pressure and their share of responsibilities at work. Body pains, headaches, sleep deprivation during the workweek, and frequent colds were mentioned. Lack of appropriate task and safety training contributed to the occurrence of work injuries. Conclusion: Having a full-time job during the day coupled with evening high school attendance may jeopardize these people's health and future. Application: This study can make a contribution to the revision and implementation of work training programs for adolescents. It can also help in the creation of more sensible policies regarding youth employment.

The Effects of Emotions and Distraction on Attention During a Perceptual Task

According to the broaden-and-build theory of positive emotions, positive emotions broaden while negative emotions narrow thought-action repertoires. These processes reflect changes in attentional scope, which is the focus of this research. The present study tested the hypothesis that participants in negative mood would be better able to focus on a target figure and separate it from its context in a perceptual task, and would also be better able to focus on the task amid a distracting environment than participants in a positive mood. An undergraduate sample of 77 participants watched video clips selected to induce either fear or amusement, and completed an Embedded Figures Test either in a quiet setting or in a noisy setting. A higher-order ANOVA revealed that Mood had a marginally significant effect on task performance, F(1, 73) = 3.94, p = .051, and that Distraction, F(1, 72) = 4.61, p = .035 and the Mood x Distraction interaction, F(1, 73) = 9.12, p = .003 did significantly affect task performance. However, contrary to the hypothesis, the effect of the distraction manipulation was greater for participants in a negative mood than it was for participants in a positive mood. The author suggests future directions to clarify the relationship between emotions, attentional scope, and susceptibility to environmental distraction.

On Time Series Analysis of Public Health and Biomedical Data

A time series is a sequence of observations made over time. Examples in public health include daily ozone concentrations, weekly admissions to an emergency department or annual expenditures on health care in the United States. Time series models are used to describe the dependence of the response at each time on predictor variables including covariates and possibly previous values in the series. Time series methods are necessary to account for the correlation among repeated responses over time. This paper gives an overview of time series ideas and methods used in public health research.

Effect of high order interpolation in the stability and efficiency of the time-integration process in vorticity-velocity CFD algorithms

The numerical solution of the incompressible Navier-Stokes Equations offers an effective alternative to the experimental analysis of Fluid-Structure interaction i.e. dynamical coupling between a fluid and a solid which otherwise is very complex, time consuming and very expensive. To have a method which can accurately model these types of mechanical systems by numerical solutions becomes a great option, since these advantages are even more obvious when considering huge structures like bridges, high rise buildings, or even wind turbine blades with diameters as large as 200 meters. The modeling of such processes, however, involves complex multiphysics problems along with complex geometries. This thesis focuses on a novel vorticity-velocity formulation called the KLE to solve the incompressible Navier-stokes equations for such FSI problems. This scheme allows for the implementation of robust adaptive ODE time integration schemes and thus allows us to tackle the various multiphysics problems as separate modules. The current algorithm for KLE employs a structured or unstructured mesh for spatial discretization and it allows the use of a self-adaptive or fixed time step ODE solver while dealing with unsteady problems. This research deals with the analysis of the effects of the Courant-Friedrichs-Lewy (CFL) condition for KLE when applied to unsteady Stoke’s problem. The objective is to conduct a numerical analysis for stability and, hence, for convergence. Our results confirmthat the time step ∆t is constrained by the CFL-like condition ∆t ≤ const. hα, where h denotes the variable that represents spatial discretization.

TIME LAPSE SEISMIC OBSERVATIONS AND EFFECTS OF RESERVOIR COMPRESSIBILITY AT TEAL SOUTH OIL FIELD

One of the original ocean-bottom time-lapse seismic studies was performed at the Teal South oil field in the Gulf of Mexico during the late 1990’s. This work reexamines some aspects of previous work using modern analysis techniques to provide improved quantitative interpretations. Using three-dimensional volume visualization of legacy data and the two phases of post-production time-lapse data, I provide additional insight into the fluid migration pathways and the pressure communication between different reservoirs, separated by faults. This work supports a conclusion from previous studies that production from one reservoir caused regional pressure decline that in turn resulted in liberation of gas from multiple surrounding unproduced reservoirs. I also provide an explanation for unusual time-lapse changes in amplitude-versus-offset (AVO) data related to the compaction of the producing reservoir which, in turn, changed an isotropic medium to an anisotropic medium. In the first part of this work, I examine regional changes in seismic response due to the production of oil and gas from one reservoir. The previous studies primarily used two post-production ocean-bottom surveys (Phase I and Phase II), and not the legacy streamer data, due to the unavailability of legacy prestack data and very different acquisition parameters. In order to incorporate the legacy data in the present study, all three poststack data sets were cross-equalized and examined using instantaneous amplitude and energy volumes. This approach appears quite effective and helps to suppress changes unrelated to production while emphasizing those large-amplitude changes that are related to production in this noisy (by current standards) suite of data. I examine the multiple data sets first by using the instantaneous amplitude and energy attributes, and then also examine specific apparent time-lapse changes through direct comparisons of seismic traces. In so doing, I identify time-delays that, when corrected for, indicate water encroachment at the base of the producing reservoir. I also identify specific sites of leakage from various unproduced reservoirs, the result of regional pressure blowdown as explained in previous studies; those earlier studies, however, were unable to identify direct evidence of fluid movement. Of particular interest is the identification of one site where oil apparently leaked from one reservoir into a “new” reservoir that did not originally contain oil, but was ideally suited as a trap for fluids leaking from the neighboring spill-point. With continued pressure drop, oil in the new reservoir increased as more oil entered into the reservoir and expanded, liberating gas from solution. Because of the limited volume available for oil and gas in that temporary trap, oil and gas also escaped from it into the surrounding formation. I also note that some of the reservoirs demonstrate time-lapse changes only in the “gas cap” and not in the oil zone, even though gas must be coming out of solution everywhere in the reservoir. This is explained by interplay between pore-fluid modulus reduction by gas saturation decrease and dry-frame modulus increase by frame stiffening. In the second part of this work, I examine various rock-physics models in an attempt to quantitatively account for frame-stiffening that results from reduced pore-fluid pressure in the producing reservoir, searching for a model that would predict the unusual AVO features observed in the time-lapse prestack and stacked data at Teal South. While several rock-physics models are successful at predicting the time-lapse response for initial production, most fail to match the observations for continued production between Phase I and Phase II. Because the reservoir was initially overpressured and unconsolidated, reservoir compaction was likely significant, and is probably accomplished largely by uniaxial strain in the vertical direction; this implies that an anisotropic model may be required. Using Walton’s model for anisotropic unconsolidated sand, I successfully model the time-lapse changes for all phases of production. This observation may be of interest for application to other unconsolidated overpressured reservoirs under production.