Coherent forecasting of multiple-decrement life tables: a test using Japanese cause of death data

Planners in public and private institutions would like coherent forecasts of the components of age-specic mortality, such as causes of death. This has been di cult toachieve because the relative values of the forecast components often fail to behave ina way that is coherent with historical experience. In addition, when the group forecasts are combined the result is often incompatible with an all-groups forecast. It hasbeen shown that cause-specic mortality forecasts are pessimistic when compared withall-cause forecasts (Wilmoth, 1995). This paper abandons the conventional approachof using log mortality rates and forecasts the density of deaths in the life table. Sincethese values obey a unit sum constraint for both conventional single-decrement life tables (only one absorbing state) and multiple-decrement tables (more than one absorbingstate), they are intrinsically relative rather than absolute values across decrements aswell as ages. Using the methods of Compositional Data Analysis pioneered by Aitchison(1986), death densities are transformed into the real space so that the full range of multivariate statistics can be applied, then back-transformed to positive values so that theunit sum constraint is honoured. The structure of the best-known, single-decrementmortality-rate forecasting model, devised by Lee and Carter (1992), is expressed incompositional form and the results from the two models are compared. The compositional model is extended to a multiple-decrement form and used to forecast mortalityby cause of death for Japan

Reliability and validity of physiological data obtained within a cycle-run transition test in age-group triathletes.

This study examined the validity and reliability of a sequential "Run-Bike-Run" test (RBR) in age-group triathletes. Eight Olympic distance (OD) specialists (age 30.0 ± 2.0 years, mass 75.6 ± 1.6 kg, run VO2max 63.8 ± 1.9 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1), cycle VO2peak 56.7 ± 5.1 ml· kg(-1)· min(-1)) performed four trials over 10 days. Trial 1 (TRVO2max) was an incremental treadmill running test. Trials 2 and 3 (RBR1 and RBR2) involved: 1) a 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R1) plus a 1-min transition to 2) cycling to fatigue (2 W· kg(-1) body mass then 30 W each 3 min); 3) 10-min cycling at 3 W· kg(-1) (Bsubmax); another 1-min transition and 4) a second 7-min run at 15 km· h(-1) (R2). Trial 4 (TT) was a 30-min cycle - 20-min run time trial. No significant differences in absolute oxygen uptake (VO2), heart rate (HR), or blood lactate concentration ([BLA]) were evidenced between RBR1 and RBR2. For all measured physiological variables, the limits of agreement were similar, and the mean differences were physiologically unimportant, between trials. Low levels of test-retest error (i.e. ICC <0.8, CV<10%) were observed for most (logged) measurements. However [BLA] post R1 (ICC 0.87, CV 25.1%), [BLA] post Bsubmax (ICC 0.99, CV 16.31) and [BLA] post R2 (ICC 0.51, CV 22.9%) were least reliable. These error ranges may help coaches detect real changes in training status over time. Moreover, RBR test variables can be used to predict discipline specific and overall TT performance. Cycle VO2peak, cycle peak power output, and the change between R1 and R2 (deltaR1R2) in [BLA] were most highly related to overall TT distance (r = 0.89, p < 0. 01; r = 0.94, p < 0.02; r = 0.86, p < 0.05, respectively). The percentage of TR VO2max at 15 km· h(-1), and deltaR1R2 HR, were also related to run TT distance (r = -0.83 and 0.86, both p < 0.05).

Intrinsic test of independence in contingency tables

A condition needed for testing nested hypotheses from a Bayesianviewpoint is that the prior for the alternative model concentratesmass around the small, or null, model. For testing independencein contingency tables, the intrinsic priors satisfy this requirement.Further, the degree of concentration of the priors is controlled bya discrete parameter m, the training sample size, which plays animportant role in the resulting answer regardless of the samplesize.In this paper we study robustness of the tests of independencein contingency tables with respect to the intrinsic priors withdifferent degree of concentration around the null, and comparewith other “robust” results by Good and Crook. Consistency ofthe intrinsic Bayesian tests is established.We also discuss conditioning issues and sampling schemes,and argue that conditioning should be on either one margin orthe table total, but not on both margins.Examples using real are simulated data are given

An indirect immunofluorescence antibody test employing whole eggs as the antigen for the diagnosis of abdominal angiostrongyliasis

Abdominal angiostrongyliasis is a potentially fatal zoonotic disease with a broad geographical distribution throughout Central and South America. This study assessed the performance of Angiostrongylus costaricensis eggs as the antigen in an indirect immunofluorescence assay for the determination of parasite-specific IgG and IgG1 antibodies. For prevalence studies, an IgG antibody titre > 16 was identified as the diagnostic threshold with the best performance, providing 93.7% sensitivity and 84.6% specificity. Cross reactivity was evaluated with 65 additional samples from patients with other known parasitic infections. Cross reactivity was observed only in samples from individuals infected with Strongyloides stercoralis. For clinical diagnosis, we recommend the determination of IgG only as a screening test. IgG1 determination may be used to increase the specificity of the results for patients with a positive screening test.

L'examen neuropsychologique en pratique quotidienne [Neuropsychological test in daily practice]

Neuropsychology is a scientific discipline, born in the XIX century, and bridges the fields of neurology and psychology. Neuropsychologists apply scientific knowledge about the relationship between brain function and mental performances. The major clinical role of a neuropsychological evaluation is to help to establish medical and functional diagnosis in patients (adults or infants) with different neurological pathologies such as stroke, traumatic brain injury, dementia, epilepsy.... Such analysis necessitates accurate observation of behaviour and administration of tests of mental abilities (e.g. language, memory...). Test results can also help to clarify the nature of cognitive difficulties and to support the formulation of plans for neuropsychological therapy and functional adjustment in every day life.

A comparative study of the TF-Test®, Kato-Katz, Hoffman-Pons-Janer, Willis and Baermann-Moraes coprologic methods for the detection of human parasitosis

This study compares the diagnostic accuracy of the TF-Test® (TFT) for human parasitosis with results obtained using the traditional Kato-Katz (KK), Hoffman-Pons-Janer (HPJ), Willis and Baermann-Moraes (BM) techniques. Overall, four stool samples were taken from each individual; three alternate-day TFT stool samples and another sample that was collected in a universal container. Stool samples were taken from 331 inhabitants of the community of Quilombola Santa Cruz. The gold standard (GS) for protozoa detection was defined as the combined results for TFT, HPJ and Willis coproscopic techniques; for helminth detection, GS was defined as the combined results for all five coproscopic techniques (TFT, KK, HPJ, Willis and BM). The positivity rate of each method was compared using the McNemar test. While the TFT exhibited similar positivity rates to the GS for Entamoeba histolytica/dispar (82.4%) and Giardia duodenalis (90%), HPJ and Willis techniques exhibited significantly lower positivity rates for these protozoa. All tests exhibited significantly lower positivity rates compared with GS for the diagnosis of helminths. The KK technique had the highest positivity rate for diagnosing Schistosoma mansoni (74.6%), while the TFT had the highest positivity rates for Ascaris lumbricoides (58.1%) and hookworm (75%); HPJ technique had the highest positivity rate for Strongyloides stercoralis (50%). Although a combination of tests is the most accurate method for the diagnosis of enteral parasites, the TFT reliably estimates the prevalence of protozoa and selected helminths, such as A. lumbricoides and hookworm. Further studies are needed to evaluate the detection accuracy of the TFT in samples with varying numbers of parasites.

An evaluation of the dot-ELISA procedure as a diagnostic test in an area with a high prevalence of human Toxocara canis infection

The aim of this work was to evaluate a dot-enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (dot-ELISA) using excretory-secretory antigens from the larval stages of Toxocara canis for the diagnosis of toxocariasis. A secondary aim was to establish the optimal conditions for its use in an area with a high prevalence of human T. canis infection. The dot-ELISA test was standardised using different concentrations of the antigen fixed on nitrocellulose paper strips and increasing dilutions of the serum and conjugate. Both the dot-ELISA and standard ELISA methods were tested in parallel with the same batch of sera from controls and from individuals living in the problem area. The best results were obtained with 1.33 µg/mL of antigen, dilutions of 1/80 for the samples and controls and a dilution of 1/5,000 for the anti-human IgG-peroxidase conjugate. All steps of the procedure were performed at room temperature. The coincidence between ELISA and dot-ELISA was 85% and the kappa index was 0.72. The dot-ELISA test described here is rapid, easy to perform and does not require expensive equipment. Thus, this test is suitable for the serological diagnosis of human T. canis infection in field surveys and in the primary health care centres of endemic regions.