What is what?: A simple time-domain test of long-memory vs. structural breaks

This paper proposes a new time-domain test of a process being I(d), 0 < d = 1, under the null, against the alternative of being I(0) with deterministic components subject to structural breaks at known or unknown dates, with the goal of disentangling the existing identification issue between long-memory and structural breaks. Denoting by AB(t) the different types of structural breaks in the deterministic components of a time series considered by Perron (1989), the test statistic proposed here is based on the t-ratio (or the infimum of a sequence of t-ratios) of the estimated coefficient on yt-1 in an OLS regression of ?dyt on a simple transformation of the above-mentioned deterministic components and yt-1, possibly augmented by a suitable number of lags of ?dyt to account for serial correlation in the error terms. The case where d = 1 coincides with the Perron (1989) or the Zivot and Andrews (1992) approaches if the break date is known or unknown, respectively. The statistic is labelled as the SB-FDF (Structural Break-Fractional Dickey- Fuller) test, since it is based on the same principles as the well-known Dickey-Fuller unit root test. Both its asymptotic behavior and finite sample properties are analyzed, and two empirical applications are provided.

Atypical EPO profiles in anti-doping analyses

Résumé : Erythropoietin (EPO) is a glycoprotein hormone endogenously produced by the kidney, whose main physiological role is the stimulation of erythropoiesis. Since the beginning of the nineties, recombinant human EPO (rhEPO), a potent anti-anaemia treatment drug, has been manufactured by pharmaceutical industries. However, the erythropoiesis stimulating power of rhEPO was rapidly misused by unscrupulous athletes in order to improve their performances in endurance sports. Endogenous EPO has the same amino-acid backbone as most of recombinant forms; the molecules however differ through their respective glycosylation patterns. This difference constitutes the basis of the usual EPO screening test (IEF) developed in 2000 and still currently used in all anti-doping laboratories of the world. Nowadays, 3 EPO generations have been commercialized. The fight against EPO abuse is a continuous challenge for anti-doping laboratories. The diversity of recombinant EPO forms and the continuous development of new ones considerably confuse the identification of EPO doping. Several facets of this fight were investigated in this work. One of the limiting aspects of doping agents screening is the availability of positive samples. Therefore, 2nd and 3rd generation EPOS, namely NESP and C.E.R.A., were injected to healthy subjects in the frame of pilot clinical studies. These latter allowed to review the current EPO identification criteria defined by the World Anti-Doping Agency (WADA) in the case of NESP and to validate and implement a new assay targeting C.E.R.A. in human serum. Both studies resulted in the determination of the respective detection windows of NESP and C.E.R.A. in biological fluids. Following that, Dynepo, a 1st generation EPO presenting similarities with the endogenous form, was also in the centre of a similar clinical study. Our work aimed to overcome the actual identification criteria, which are not adapted to Dynpeo, and to propose an alternative pattern classification method based on the discriminant analysis of IEF EPO profiles. This method might be validated for other EPO forms in the future. The detection window of this molecule was also determined. Under particular conditions, confounding effects can complicate the identification of EPO in biological matrices. For example, athletes having performed a strenuous physical effort can excrete modified isoforms of endogenous EPO, making it very similar to some recombinant forms. Such phenomena, called effort urines, were reproduced under controlled conditions and, after characterization of effort EPO, an urinary biochemical marker was proposed to unequivocally identify effort urines. It also happens that EPO analyses fail to detect endogenous levels of EPO. Such profiles were thoroughly investigated and potential causes identified. Natural reasons relying on urine properties and test specificity were underlined, but the possible addition of adulterant agents in urine samples was also considered. Therefore, a simple biochemical assay targeting the suspected substances was set up. Our work was based on the characterization of atypical EPO profiles from different origins. Therefore, 3 EPO molecules representing the 3 generations of the drug and 2 confounding effects confusing the results interpretation were studied. These studies resulted in tangible applications for the laboratory, the best example of which being the C.E.R.A. assay, but also in scientific findings allowing to improve our comprehension of EPO doping in sport.

Evaluation of an online, case-based interactive approach to teaching pathophysiology

Rapport de synthèse : L'article qui fait l'objet de ma thèse évalue une nouvelle approche pédagogique pour l'apprentissage de certains chapitres de physiopathologie. Le dispositif pédagogique se base sur l'alternance d'apprentissage ex-cathedra et de l'utilisation d'un site web comprenant des vignettes cliniques. Lors de la consultation de ces-dernières, l'étudiant est invité à demander des examens de laboratoire dont il pourrait justifier la pertinence selon le cas clinique étudié. La nouveauté du procédé réside dans le fait que, préalablement à son cours ex-cathedra, l'enseignant peut consulter les statistiques de demandes de laboratoire et ainsi orienter son cours selon les éléments mal compris par les étudiants. A la suite du cours ex-cathedra, les étudiants peuvent consulter sur internet la vignette clinique complète avec des explications. A l'issue de tout le cours, une évaluation auprès des étudiants a été conduite. Le procédé a été mis en place durant deux années consécutives et l'article en discute notamment les résultats. Nous avons pu conclure que cette méthode innovatrice d'enseignement amène les étudiants à mieux se préparer pour les cours ex-cathedra tout en permettant à l'enseignant d'identifier plus précisément quelles thématiques étaient difficiles pour les étudiants et donc d'ajuster au mieux son cours. Mon travail de thèse a consisté à créer ce dispositif d'apprentissage, à créer l'application web des vignettes cliniques et à l'implanter durant deux années consécutives. J'ai ensuite analysé les données des évaluations et écrit l'article que j'ai présenté à la revue 'Medical Teacher'. Après quelques corrections et précisions demandées par le comité de lecture, l'article a été accepté et publié. Ce travail a débouché sur une seconde version de l'application web qui est actuellement utilisée lors du module 3.1 de 3è année à l'Ecole de Médecine à Lausanne. Summary : Since the early days of sexual selection, our understanding of the selective forces acting on males and females during reproduction has increased remarkably. However, despite a long tradition of experimental and theoretical work in this field and relentless effort, numerous questions remain unanswered and many results are conflicting. Moreover, the interface between sexual selection and conservation biology has to date received little attention, despite existing evidence for its importance. In the present thesis, I first used an empirical approach to test various sexual selection hypotheses in a population of whitefish of central Switzerland. This precise population is characterized by a high prevalence of gonadal alterations in males. In particular, I challenged the hypothesis that whitefish males displaying peculiar gonadal features are of lower genetic quality than other seemingly normal males. Additionally, I also worked on identifying important determinant of sperm behavior. During a second theoretical part of my work, which is part of a larger project on the evolution of female mate preferences in harvested fish populations, I developed an individual-based simulation model to estimate how different mate discrimination costs affect the demographical behavior of fish populations and the evolutionary trajectories of female mate preferences. This latter work provided me with some insight on a recently published article addressing the importance of sexual selection for harvesting-induced evolution. I built upon this insight in a short perspective paper. In parallel, I let some methodological questions drive my thoughts, and wrote an essay about possible synergies between the biological, the philosophical and the statistical approach to biological questions.

School Choice and Student Screening in the Chilean Educational System: Who Chooses Whom?. The Case of the Catholic Education

The student´s screening made by schools corresponds to a regulatory mechanism for school inclusion and exclusion that normally overlaps the parental expectations of school choice. Based in "Parents survey 2006" data (n=188.073) generated by the Chilean Educational Ministry, this paper describe the parents reasons for choosing their children's school, and school´s criteria for screening students. It concludes that the catholic schools are the most selective institutions and usually exceed the capacity of parental choice. One of the reasons to select students would be the direct relationship between this practice and increasing the average score on the test of the Chilean Educational Quality Measurement System (SIMCE).

Calibration of high-resolution geophysical data with tracer test measurements to improve hydrological predictions

Relationships between porosity and hydraulic conductivity tend to be strongly scale- and site-dependent and are thus very difficult to establish. As a result, hydraulic conductivity distributions inferred from geophysically derived porosity models must be calibrated using some measurement of aquifer response. This type of calibration is potentially very valuable as it may allow for transport predictions within the considered hydrological unit at locations where only geophysical measurements are available, thus reducing the number of well tests required and thereby the costs of management and remediation. Here, we explore this concept through a series of numerical experiments. Considering the case of porosity characterization in saturated heterogeneous aquifers using crosshole ground-penetrating radar and borehole porosity log data, we use tracer test measurements to calibrate a relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity that allows the best prediction of the observed hydrological behavior. To examine the validity and effectiveness of the obtained relationship, we examine its performance at alternate locations not used in the calibration procedure. Our results indicate that this methodology allows us to obtain remarkably reliable hydrological predictions throughout the considered hydrological unit based on the geophysical data only. This was also found to be the case when significant uncertainty was considered in the underlying relationship between porosity and hydraulic conductivity.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

The effects of tax deductibility on the mix of property taxes and use charges: an empirical analysis of the spanish case

This paper tests some hypothesis about the determinants of the local tax structure. In particular, we focus on the effects that the property tax deductibility in the national income tax has on the relative use of the property tax and user charges. We deal with the incentive effects that local governments face regarding the different sources of revenue by means of a model in which the local tax structure and the level of public expenditure arise as a result of the maximizing behaviour of local politicians subject to the economic effects of the tax system. We attempt to test the hypothesis developed with data corresponding to a set of Spanish municipalities during the period 1987-9l. We find that tax deductibility provides incentives to raise revenues from the property tax but does not introduce a biass against user charges or in favor of overall spending growth

The cervical spine in calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate deposition disease. A prevalent case-control study.

OBJECTIVE: To test the hypothesis that calcium pyrophosphate dihydrate (CPPD) deposition disease is a risk factor for neck pain. METHODS: A prevalent case-control study was conducted to assess cervical calcifications and neck pain between patients with and without known peripheral CPPD deposition disease. CPPD cases were included if diagnosed with CPPD deposition disease of peripheral joints, and excluded if their chief complaint was neck pain. Controls were randomly selected among consecutive patients, hospitalized for conditions unrelated to CPPD deposition disease or neck pain, and matched to CPPD cases by age and sex. Cervical calcifications were assessed by lateral cervical radiographs and computed tomography scans of the upper cervical spine; neck pain and cervical function were appraised by a validated questionnaire. RESULTS: Cervical calcifications were found in 24 out of 35 patients (69%) in the CPPD group compared to 4 out of 35 patients (11%) in the control group (p < 0.001). Patients with CPPD deposition disease reported significantly more neck pain and discomfort than controls (p < 0.001), and were 5 times more likely to report any neck pain (odds ratio 5.5; 95% confidence interval: 1.9, 21.9). Among male patients, more extensive cervical calcified deposits correlated with more severe neck pain (rs = 0.58, p = 0.03). CONCLUSION: These results suggest that CPPD deposition disease frequently involves the cervical spine and may be associated with the development of neck pain.

Level shifts in a panel data based unit root test : an application to the rate of unemployment

Several unit root tests in panel data have recently been proposed. The test developed by Harris and Tzavalis (1999 JoE) performs particularly well when the time dimension is moderate in relation to the cross-section dimension. However, in common with the traditional tests designed for the unidimensional case, it was found to perform poorly when there is a structural break in the time series under the alternative. Here we derive the asymptotic distribution of the test allowing for a shift in the mean, and assess the small sample performance. We apply this new test to show how the hypothesis of (perfect) hysteresis in Spanish unemployment is rejected in favour of the alternative of the natural unemployment rate, when the possibility of a change in the latter is considered.

The effects of tax deductibility on the mix of property taxes and use charges: an empirical analysis of the spanish case

This paper tests some hypothesis about the determinants of the local tax structure. In particular, we focus on the effects that the property tax deductibility in the national income tax has on the relative use of the property tax and user charges. We deal with the incentive effects that local governments face regarding the different sources of revenue by means of a model in which the local tax structure and the level of public expenditure arise as a result of the maximizing behaviour of local politicians subject to the economic effects of the tax system. We attempt to test the hypothesis developed with data corresponding to a set of Spanish municipalities during the period 1987-9l. We find that tax deductibility provides incentives to raise revenues from the property tax but does not introduce a biass against user charges or in favor of overall spending growth

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

Genetic association tests: a method for the joint analysis of family and case-control data.

With the trend in molecular epidemiology towards both genome-wide association studies and complex modelling, the need for large sample sizes to detect small effects and to allow for the estimation of many parameters within a model continues to increase. Unfortunately, most methods of association analysis have been restricted to either a family-based or a case-control design, resulting in the lack of synthesis of data from multiple studies. Transmission disequilibrium-type methods for detecting linkage disequilibrium from family data were developed as an effective way of preventing the detection of association due to population stratification. Because these methods condition on parental genotype, however, they have precluded the joint analysis of family and case-control data, although methods for case-control data may not protect against population stratification and do not allow for familial correlations. We present here an extension of a family-based association analysis method for continuous traits that will simultaneously test for, and if necessary control for, population stratification. We further extend this method to analyse binary traits (and therefore family and case-control data together) and accurately to estimate genetic effects in the population, even when using an ascertained family sample. Finally, we present the power of this binary extension for both family-only and joint family and case-control data, and demonstrate the accuracy of the association parameter and variance components in an ascertained family sample.

Natural selection in a postglacial range expansion: the case of the colour cline in the European barn owl.

Gradients of variation-or clines-have always intrigued biologists. Classically, they have been interpreted as the outcomes of antagonistic interactions between selection and gene flow. Alternatively, clines may also establish neutrally with isolation by distance (IBD) or secondary contact between previously isolated populations. The relative importance of natural selection and these two neutral processes in the establishment of clinal variation can be tested by comparing genetic differentiation at neutral genetic markers and at the studied trait. A third neutral process, surfing of a newly arisen mutation during the colonization of a new habitat, is more difficult to test. Here, we designed a spatially explicit approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) simulation framework to evaluate whether the strong cline in the genetically based reddish coloration observed in the European barn owl (Tyto alba) arose as a by-product of a range expansion or whether selection has to be invoked to explain this colour cline, for which we have previously ruled out the actions of IBD or secondary contact. Using ABC simulations and genetic data on 390 individuals from 20 locations genotyped at 22 microsatellites loci, we first determined how barn owls colonized Europe after the last glaciation. Using these results in new simulations on the evolution of the colour phenotype, and assuming various genetic architectures for the colour trait, we demonstrate that the observed colour cline cannot be due to the surfing of a neutral mutation. Taking advantage of spatially explicit ABC, which proved to be a powerful method to disentangle the respective roles of selection and drift in range expansions, we conclude that the formation of the colour cline observed in the barn owl must be due to natural selection.

LEVERAGING SANDBOX IMMERSIVE 3D VIRTUAL WORLDS TO DEVELOP DO-IT- YOURSELF TEACHING GAMES: IMPLEMENTATION TO MARKETING CASE STUDY TEACHING IN SECOND LIFE

Games are powerful and engaging. On average, one billion people spend at least 1 hour a day playing computer and videogames. This is even more true with the younger generations. Our students have become the < digital natives >, the < gamers >, the < virtual generation >. Research shows that those who are most at risk for failure in the traditional classroom setting, also spend more time than their counterparts, using video games. They might strive, given a different learning environment. Educators have the responsibility to align their teaching style to these younger generation learning styles. However, many academics resist the use of computer-assisted learning that has been "created elsewhere". This can be extrapolated to game-based teaching: even if educational games were more widely authored, their adoption would still be limited to the educators who feel a match between the authored games and their own beliefs and practices. Consequently, game-based teaching would be much more widespread if teachers could develop their own games, or at least customize them. Yet, the development and customization of teaching games are complex and costly. This research uses a design science methodology, leveraging gamification techniques, active and cooperative learning theories, as well as immersive sandbox 3D virtual worlds, to develop a method which allows management instructors to transform any off-the-shelf case study into an engaging collaborative gamified experience. This method is applied to marketing case studies, and uses the sandbox virtual world of Second Life. -- Les jeux sont puissants et motivants, En moyenne, un milliard de personnes passent au moins 1 heure par jour jouer à des jeux vidéo sur ordinateur. Ceci se vérifie encore plus avec les jeunes générations, Nos étudiants sont nés à l'ère du numérique, certains les appellent des < gamers >, d'autres la < génération virtuelle >. Les études montrent que les élèves qui se trouvent en échec scolaire dans les salles de classes traditionnelles, passent aussi plus de temps que leurs homologues à jouer à des jeux vidéo. lls pourraient potentiellement briller, si on leur proposait un autre environnement d'apprentissage. Les enseignants ont la responsabilité d'adapter leur style d'enseignement aux styles d'apprentissage de ces jeunes générations. Toutefois, de nombreux professeurs résistent lorsqu'il s'agit d'utiliser des contenus d'apprentissage assisté par ordinateur, développés par d'autres. Ceci peut être extrapolé à l'enseignement par les jeux : même si un plus grand nombre de jeux éducatifs était créé, leur adoption se limiterait tout de même aux éducateurs qui perçoivent une bonne adéquation entre ces jeux et leurs propres convictions et pratiques. Par conséquent, I'enseignement par les jeux serait bien plus répandu si les enseignants pouvaient développer leurs propres jeux, ou au moins les customiser. Mais le développement de jeux pédagogiques est complexe et coûteux. Cette recherche utilise une méthodologie Design Science pour développer, en s'appuyant sur des techniques de ludification, sur les théories de pédagogie active et d'apprentissage coopératif, ainsi que sur les mondes virtuels immersifs < bac à sable > en 3D, une méthode qui permet aux enseignants et formateurs de management, de transformer n'importe quelle étude de cas, provenant par exemple d'une centrale de cas, en une expérience ludique, collaborative et motivante. Cette méthode est appliquée aux études de cas Marketing dans le monde virtuel de Second Life.

Spatial planning to the test of property rights in Switzerland : an innovative land management approach to coordinate spatial planning goals with property rights interests

In Switzerland, the land management regime is characterized by a liberal attitude towards the institution of property rights, which is guaranteed by the Constitution. Under the present Swiss constitutional arrangement, authorities (municipalities) are required to take into account landowners' interests when implementing their spatial planning policy. In other words, the institution of property rights cannot be restricted easily in order to implement zoning plans and planning projects. This situation causes many problems. One of them is the gap between the way land is really used by the landowners and the way land should be used based on zoning plans. In fact, zoning plans only describe how landowners should use their property. There is no sufficient provision for handling cases where the use is not in accordance with zoning plans. In particular, landowners may not be expropriated for a non-conforming use of the land. This situation often leads to the opening of new building areas in greenfields and urban sprawl, which is in contradiction with the goals set into the Federal Law on Spatial Planning. In order to identify legal strategies of intervention to solve the problem, our paper is structured into three main parts. Firstly, we make a short description of the Swiss land management regime. Then, we focus on an innovative land management approach designed to implement zoning plans in accordance with property rights. Finally, we present a case study that shows the usefulness of the presented land management approach in practice. We develop three main results. Firstly, the land management approach brings a mechanism to involve landowners in planning projects. Coordination principle between spatial planning goals and landowners' interests is the cornerstone of all the process. Secondly, the land use is improved both in terms of space and time. Finally, the institution of property rights is not challenged, since there is no expropriation and the market stays free.