Estimation with Interval Censored Data in Longitudinal Studies

In biostatistical applications interest often focuses on the estimation of the distribution of a time-until-event variable T. If one observes whether or not T exceeds an observed monitoring time at a random number of monitoring times, then the data structure is called interval censored data. We extend this data structure by allowing the presence of a possibly time-dependent covariate process that is observed until end of follow up. If one only assumes that the censoring mechanism satisfies coarsening at random, then, by the curve of dimensionality, typically no regular estimators will exist. To fight the curse of dimensionality we follow the approach of Robins and Rotnitzky (1992) by modeling parameters of the censoring mechanism. We model the right-censoring mechanism by modeling the hazard of the follow up time, conditional on T and the covariate process. For the monitoring mechanism we avoid modeling the joint distribution of the monitoring times by only modeling a univariate hazard of the pooled monitoring times, conditional on the follow up time, T, and the covariates process, which can be estimated by treating the pooled sample of monitoring times as i.i.d. In particular, it is assumed that the monitoring times and the right-censoring times only depend on T through the observed covariate process. We introduce inverse probability of censoring weighted (IPCW) estimator of the distribution of T and of smooth functionals thereof which are guaranteed to be consistent and asymptotically normal if we have available correctly specified semiparametric models for the two hazards of the censoring process. Furthermore, given such correctly specified models for these hazards of the censoring process, we propose a one-step estimator which will improve on the IPCW estimator if we correctly specify a lower-dimensional working model for the conditional distribution of T, given the covariate process, that remains consistent and asymptotically normal if this latter working model is misspecified. It is shown that the one-step estimator is efficient if each subject is at most monitored once and the working model contains the truth. In general, it is shown that the one-step estimator optimally uses the surrogate information if the working model contains the truth. It is not optimal in using the interval information provided by the current status indicators at the monitoring times, but simulations in Peterson, van der Laan (1997) show that the efficiency loss is small.

Markers Models in Survival Analysis and Applications to Issues Associated with AIDS

Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) consider the use of marker processes for applications related to estimation of the survival distribution of time to failure. Marker processes were assumed to be stochastic processes that, at a given point in time, provide information about the current hazard and consequently on the remaining time to failure. Particular attention was paid to calculations based on a simple additive model for the relationship between the hazard function at time t and the history of the marker process up until time t. Specific applications to the analysis of AIDS data included the use of markers as surrogate responses for onset of AIDS with censored data and as predictors of the time elapsed since infection in prevalent individuals. Here we review recent work on the use of marker data to tackle these kinds of problems with AIDS data. The Poisson marker process with an additive model, introduced in Jewell and Kalbfleisch (1992) may be a useful "test" example for comparison of various procedures.

A Mechanistic Latent Variable Model for Estimating Drug Concentrations in the Male Genital Tract

The purpose of this study is to develop statistical methodology to facilitate indirect estimation of the concentration of antiretroviral drugs and viral loads in the prostate gland and the seminal vesicle. The differences in antiretroviral drug concentrations in these organs may lead to suboptimal concentrations in one gland compared to the other. Suboptimal levels of the antiretroviral drugs will not be able to fully suppress the virus in that gland, lead to a source of sexually transmissible virus and increase the chance of selecting for drug resistant virus. This information may be useful selecting antiretroviral drug regimen that will achieve optimal concentrations in most of male genital tract glands. Using fractionally collected semen ejaculates, Lundquist (1949) measured levels of surrogate markers in each fraction that are uniquely produced by specific male accessory glands. To determine the original glandular concentrations of the surrogate markers, Lundquist solved a simultaneous series of linear equations. This method has several limitations. In particular, it does not yield a unique solution, it does not address measurement error, and it disregards inter-subject variability in the parameters. To cope with these limitations, we developed a mechanistic latent variable model based on the physiology of the male genital tract and surrogate markers. We employ a Bayesian approach and perform a sensitivity analysis with regard to the distributional assumptions on the random effects and priors. The model and Bayesian approach is validated on experimental data where the concentration of a drug should be (biologically) differentially distributed between the two glands. In this example, the Bayesian model-based conclusions are found to be robust to model specification and this hierarchical approach leads to more scientifically valid conclusions than the original methodology. In particular, unlike existing methods, the proposed model based approach was not affected by a common form of outliers.

Telomere length in paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria correlates with clone size

OBJECTIVE: To study if telomere length can be used as a surrogate marker for the mitotic history in normal and affected hematopoietic cells from patients with paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH). METHODS: The telomere length was measured by automated multicolor flow fluorescence in situ hybridization in glycosyl-phosphatidyl-inositol anchored protein (GPI)-negative and GPI-positive peripheral blood leukocytes. Eleven patients were studied, two with predominantly hemolytic PNH and nine with PNH associated with marrow failure. RESULTS: Telomere length in GPI-negative cells was significantly shorter than in GPI-positive cells of the same patient (p < 0.01, n = 11). The difference in telomere length (telomere length in GPI-positive minus telomere length in GPI-negative cells) correlated with the percentage of GPI-negative white blood cells. CONCLUSION: Our results support the hypothesis that telomere length is correlated to the replicative history of GPI-positive and GPI-negative cells and warrant further studies of telomere length in relation to disease progression in PNH.

Cytokine activation and disease progression in patients with stable moderate chronic heart failure

BACKGROUND: Activation of the cytokine and the complement system is associated with disease progression in severe congestive heart failure (CHF). Magnitude and prognostic relevance of cytokine and complement activation remain uncertain in patients with moderate CHF. OBJECTIVES: Measurement of cytokine and complement activation in patients with moderate CHF and testing whether C-reactive protein (CRP) can serve as a surrogate marker of their activation, adding independent prognostic information when co-measured with B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP). METHODS: The 118 study participants were separated into three groups based on pre-determined CRP and BNP levels: Group I (n = 27; CRP > 5 mg/liter, BNP > or = 200 pg/ml); Group II (n = 46; CRP < or = 5 mg/liter, BNP > or = 200 pg/ml); and Group III (n = 45; CRP < or = 5 mg/liter, BNP < 200 pg/ml). RESULTS: Mortality was high in Group I (30%; log-rank p < 0.001) but low in Groups II and III (2% and 4%, respectively; log rank, p = 0.7). No differences were observed for left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and left ventricular end-diastolic diameter (LVEDD) between Groups I and II (31 +/- 16 vs 32 +/- 14% and 66 +/- 16 vs 65 +/- 11 mm, respectively), whereas in Group III LVEF was higher (42 +/- 17%, p = 0.002) with smaller LVEDD (57 +/- 13 mm, p = 0.012). Cytokine sCD14 and tumor necrosis factor (TNF)-alpha levels were not different between the three groups. However, interleukin-6 levels (9.75 +/- 8.17 pg/ml, p = 0.001) and the terminal complement complex C5b-9 (109.9 +/- 68 ng/ml; p = 0.04) were elevated in Group I, both correlating with CRP (interleukin-6: r = 0.5, p < 0.001; C5b-9: r = 0.41, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CRP may be used as a surrogate parameter for interleukin-6 and complement activation in moderate CHF. CRP in combination with BNP identifies a high-risk group with a tendency for poor outcome not discriminated by cardiac function.

Cardiovascular disease and periodontitis: an update on the associations and risk

BACKGROUND: Associations between periodontitis and cardiovascular diseases have been recognized. MATERIAL AND METHODS: New literature since the last European Workshop on Periodontology has been reviewed. RESULTS: The lack of reliable epidemiological data on disease prevalence makes an assessment of the associations and risks between periodontitis and cardiovascular diseases difficult. Two recent meta-analysis reports have identified associations between periodontitis and cardiovascular diseases (odds ratios: 1.1-2.2). Different surrogate markers for both disease entities, including serum biomarkers, have been investigated. Brachial artery flow-mediated dilatation, and carotid intima media thickness have in some studies been linked to periodontitis. Studies are needed to confirm early results of improvements of such surrogate markers following periodontal therapy. While intensive periodontal therapy may enhance inflammatory responses and impair vascular functions, studies are needed to assess the outcome of periodontal therapies in subjects with confirmed cardiovascular conditions. Tooth eradication may also reduce the systemic inflammatory burden of individuals with severe periodontitis. The role of confounders remain unclear. CONCLUSIONS: Periodontitis may contribute to cardiovascular disease and stroke in susceptible subjects. Properly powered longitudinal case-control and intervention trials are needed to identify how periodontitis and periodontal interventions may have an impact on cardiovascular diseases.

Macrocyclic chelator-coupled gastrin-based radiopharmaceuticals for targeting of gastrin receptor-expressing tumours

PURPOSE: Diethylenetriamine-pentaacetic acid (DTPA)-coupled minigastrins are unsuitable for therapeutic application with the available beta-emitting radiometals due to low complex stability. Low tumour-to-kidney ratio of the known radiopharmaceuticals is further limiting their potency. We used macrocyclic chelators for coupling to increase complex stability, modified the peptide sequence to enhance radiolytic stability and studied tumour-to-kidney ratio and metabolic stability using (111)In-labelled derivatives. METHODS: Gastrin derivatives with decreasing numbers of glutamic acids were synthesised using (111)In as surrogate for therapeutic radiometals for in vitro and in vivo studies. Gastrin receptor affinities of the (nat)In-metallated compounds were determined by receptor autoradiography using (125)I-CCK as radioligand. Internalisation was evaluated in AR4-2J cells. Enzymatic stability was determined by incubating the (111)In-labelled peptides in human serum. Biodistribution was performed in AR4-2J-bearing Lewis rats. RESULTS: IC(50) values of the (nat)In-metallated gastrin derivatives vary between 1.2 and 4.8 nmol/L for all methionine-containing derivatives. Replacement of methionine by norleucine, isoleucine, methionine-sulfoxide and methionine-sulfone resulted in significant decrease of receptor affinity (IC(50) between 9.9 and 1,195 nmol/L). All cholecystokinin receptor affinities were >100 nmol/L. All (111)In-labelled radiopeptides showed receptor-specific internalisation. Serum mean-life times varied between 2.0 and 72.6 h, positively correlating with the number of Glu residues. All (111)In-labelled macrocyclic chelator conjugates showed higher tumour-to-kidney ratios after 24 h (0.37-0.99) compared to (111)In-DTPA-minigastrin 0 (0.05). Tumour wash out between 4 and 24 h was low. Imaging studies confirmed receptor-specific blocking of the tumour uptake. CONCLUSIONS: Reducing the number of glutamates increased tumour-to-kidney ratio but resulted in lower metabolic stability. The properties of the macrocyclic chelator-bearing derivatives make them potentially suitable for clinical purposes.

Metal-ion-dependent biological properties of a chelator-derived somatostatin analogue for tumour targeting

Somatostatin-based radioligands have been shown to have sensitive imaging properties for neuroendocrine tumours and their metastases. The potential of [(55)Co(dotatoc)] (dotatoc =4,7,10-tricarboxymethyl-1,4,7,10-tetraazacyclododecane-1-ylacetyl-D-Phe-(Cys-Tyr-D-Trp-Lys-Thr-Cys)-threoninol (disulfide bond)) as a new radiopharmaceutical agent for PET has been evaluated. (57)Co was used as a surrogate of the positron emitter (55)Co and the pharmacokinetics of [(57)Co(dotatoc)] were investigated by using two nude mouse models. The somatostatin receptor subtype (sst1-sst5) affinity profile of [(nat)Co(dotatoc)] on membranes transfected with human somatostatin receptor subtypes was assessed by using autoradiographic methods. These studies revealed that [(57)Co(dotatoc)] is an sst2-specific radiopeptide which presents the highest affinity ever found for the sst2 receptor subtype. The rate of internalisation into the AR4-2J cell line also was the highest found for any somatostatin-based radiopeptide. Biodistribution studies, performed in nude mice bearing an AR4-2J tumour or a transfected HEK-sst2 cell-based tumour, showed high and specific uptake in the tumour and in other sst-receptor-expressing tissues, which reflects the high receptor binding affinity and the high rate of internalisation. The pharmacologic differences between [(57)Co(dotatoc)] and [(67)Ga(dotatoc)] are discussed in terms of the structural parameters found for the chelate models [Co(II)(dota)](2-) and [Ga(III)(dota)](-) whose X-ray structures have been determined. Both chelates show six-fold coordination in pseudo-octahedral arrangements.

Development of the premature infant nose throat-model (PrINT-Model): an upper airway replica of a premature neonate for the study of aerosol delivery

Clinical efficacy of aerosol therapy in premature newborns depends on the efficiency of delivery of aerosolized drug to the bronchial tree. To study the influence of various anatomical, physical, and physiological factors on aerosol delivery in preterm newborns, it is crucial to have appropriate in vitro models, which are currently not available. We therefore constructed the premature infant nose throat-model (PrINT-Model), an upper airway model corresponding to a premature infant of 32-wk gestational age by three-dimensional (3D) reconstruction of a three-planar magnetic resonance imaging scan and subsequent 3D-printing. Validation was realized by visual comparison and comparison of total airway volume. To study the feasibility of measuring aerosol deposition, budesonide was aerosolized through the cast and lung dose was expressed as percentage of nominal dose. The airway volumes of the initial magnetic resonance imaging and validation computed tomography scan showed a relative deviation of 0.94%. Lung dose at low flow (1 L/min) was 61.84% and 9.00% at high flow (10 L/min), p < 0.0001. 3D-reconstruction provided an anatomically accurate surrogate of the upper airways of a 32-wk-old premature infant, making the model suitable for future in vitro testing.

Diesel spray mixing limited vaporization with non-ideal and multi-component fuel thermophysical property effects

Internal combustion engines are, and will continue to be, a primary mode of power generation for ground transportation. Challenges exist in meeting fuel consumption regulations and emission standards while upholding performance, as fuel prices rise, and resource depletion and environmental impacts are of increasing concern. Diesel engines are advantageous due to their inherent efficiency advantage over spark ignition engines; however, their NOx and soot emissions can be difficult to control and reduce due to an inherent tradeoff. Diesel combustion is spray and mixing controlled providing an intrinsic link between spray and emissions, motivating detailed, fundamental studies on spray, vaporization, mixing, and combustion characteristics under engine relevant conditions. An optical combustion vessel facility has been developed at Michigan Technological University for these studies, with detailed tests and analysis being conducted. In this combustion vessel facility a preburn procedure for thermodynamic state generation is used, and validated using chemical kinetics modeling both for the MTU vessel, and institutions comprising the Engine Combustion Network international collaborative research initiative. It is shown that minor species produced are representative of modern diesel engines running exhaust gas recirculation and do not impact the autoignition of n-heptane. Diesel spray testing of a high-pressure (2000 bar) multi-hole injector is undertaken including non-vaporizing, vaporizing, and combusting tests, with sprays characterized using Mie back scatter imaging diagnostics. Liquid phase spray parameter trends agree with literature. Fluctuations in liquid length about a quasi-steady value are quantified, along with plume to plume variations. Hypotheses are developed for their causes including fuel pressure fluctuations, nozzle cavitation, internal injector flow and geometry, chamber temperature gradients, and turbulence. These are explored using a mixing limited vaporization model with an equation of state approach for thermopyhysical properties. This model is also applied to single and multi-component surrogates. Results include the development of the combustion research facility and validated thermodynamic state generation procedure. The developed equation of state approach provides application for improving surrogate fuels, both single and multi-component, in terms of diesel spray liquid length, with knowledge of only critical fuel properties. Experimental studies are coupled with modeling incorporating improved thermodynamic non-ideal gas and fuel

Great Lakes tributary phosphorus bioavailability

Information on phosphorus bioavailability can provide water quality managers with the support required to target point source and watershed loads contributing most significantly to water quality conditions. This study presents results from a limited sampling program focusing on the five largest sources of total phosphorus to the U.S. waters of the Great Lakes. The work provides validation of the utility of a bioavailability-based approach, confirming that the method is robust and repeatable. Chemical surrogates for bioavailability were shown to hold promise, however further research is needed to address site-to-site and seasonal variability before a universal relationship can be accepted. Recent changes in the relative contribution of P constituents to the total phosphorus analyte and differences in their bioavailability suggest that loading estimates of bioavailable P will need to address all three components (SRP, DOP and PP). A bioavailability approach, taking advantage of chemical surrogate methodologies is recommended as a means of guiding P management in the Great Lakes.

Modeling mechanical response of heterogeneous materials

Heterogeneous materials are ubiquitous in nature and as synthetic materials. These materials provide unique combination of desirable mechanical properties emerging from its heterogeneities at different length scales. Future structural and technological applications will require the development of advanced light weight materials with superior strength and toughness. Cost effective design of the advanced high performance synthetic materials by tailoring their microstructure is the challenge facing the materials design community. Prior knowledge of structure-property relationships for these materials is imperative for optimal design. Thus, understanding such relationships for heterogeneous materials is of primary interest. Furthermore, computational burden is becoming critical concern in several areas of heterogeneous materials design. Therefore, computationally efficient and accurate predictive tools are highly essential. In the present study, we mainly focus on mechanical behavior of soft cellular materials and tough biological material such as mussel byssus thread. Cellular materials exhibit microstructural heterogeneity by interconnected network of same material phase. However, mussel byssus thread comprises of two distinct material phases. A robust numerical framework is developed to investigate the micromechanisms behind the macroscopic response of both of these materials. Using this framework, effect of microstuctural parameters has been addressed on the stress state of cellular specimens during split Hopkinson pressure bar test. A voronoi tessellation based algorithm has been developed to simulate the cellular microstructure. Micromechanisms (microinertia, microbuckling and microbending) governing macroscopic behavior of cellular solids are investigated thoroughly with respect to various microstructural and loading parameters. To understand the origin of high toughness of mussel byssus thread, a Genetic Algorithm (GA) based optimization framework has been developed. It is found that two different material phases (collagens) of mussel byssus thread are optimally distributed along the thread. These applications demonstrate that the presence of heterogeneity in the system demands high computational resources for simulation and modeling. Thus, Higher Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) based surrogate modeling concept has been proposed to reduce computational complexity. The applicability of such methodology has been demonstrated in failure envelope construction and in multiscale finite element techniques. It is observed that surrogate based model can capture the behavior of complex material systems with sufficient accuracy. The computational algorithms presented in this thesis will further pave the way for accurate prediction of macroscopic deformation behavior of various class of advanced materials from their measurable microstructural features at a reasonable computational cost.

Cylinder wall waste heat recovery from liquid-cooled internal combustion engines utilizing thermoelectric generators

This report is a dissertation proposal that focuses on the energy balance within an internal combustion engine with a unique coolant-based waste heat recovery system. It has been predicted by the U.S. Energy Information Administration that the transportation sector in the United States will consume approximately 15 million barrels per day in liquid fuels by the year 2025. The proposed coolant-based waste heat recovery technique has the potential to reduce the yearly usage of those liquid fuels by nearly 50 million barrels by only recovering even a modest 1% of the wasted energy within the coolant system. The proposed waste heat recovery technique implements thermoelectric generators on the outside cylinder walls of an internal combustion engine. For this research, one outside cylinder wall of a twin cylinder 26 horsepower water-cooled gasoline engine will be implemented with a thermoelectric generator surrogate material. The vertical location of these TEG surrogates along the water jacket will be varied along with the TEG surrogate thermal conductivity. The aim of this proposed dissertation is to attain empirical evidence of the impact, including energy distribution and cylinder wall temperatures, of installing TEGs in the water jacket area. The results can be used for future research on larger engines and will also assist with proper TEG selection to maximize energy recovery efficiencies.

Agents used for chemoprevention of prostate cancer may influence PSA secretion independently of cell growth in the LNCaP model of human prostate cancer progression

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the inhibitory growth effects of different potential chemopreventive agents in vitro and to determine their influence on PSA mRNA and protein expression with an established screening platform. METHODS: LNCaP and C4-2 cells were incubated with genistein, seleno-L-methionine, lycopene, DL-alpha-tocopherol, and trans-beta-carotene at three different concentrations and cell growth was determined by the MTT assay. PSA mRNA expression was assessed by quantitative real-time RT-PCR and secreted PSA protein levels were quantified by the microparticle enzyme immunoassay. RESULTS: Genistein, seleno-l-methionine and lycopene inhibited LNCaP cell growth, and the proliferation of C4-2 cells was suppressed by seleno-L-methionine and lycopene. PSA mRNA expression was downregulated by genistein in LNCaP but not C4-2 cells. No other compound tested altered PSA mRNA expression. PSA protein expression was downregulated by genistein, seleno-L-methionine, DL-alpha-tocopherol in LNCaP cells. In C4-2 cells only genistein significantly reduced the secretion of PSA protein. CONCLUSIONS: In the LNCaP progression model PSA expression depends on the compound, its concentration and on the hormonal dependence of the cell line used and does not necessarily reflect cell growth or death. Before potential substances are evaluated in clinical trials using PSA as a surrogate end point marker, their effect on PSA mRNA and protein expression has to be considered to correctly assess treatment response by PSA.