Tool for discovering sequential patterns in financial markets

The goal of this thesis is the study of a tool that can help analysts in finding sequential patterns. This tool will have a focus on financial markets. A study will be made on how new and relevant knowledge can be mined from real life information, potentially giving investors, market analysts, and economists new basis to make informed decisions. The Ramex Forum algorithm will be used as a basis for the tool, due to its ability to find sequential patterns in financial data. So that it further adapts to the needs of the thesis, a study of relevant improvements to the algorithm will be made. Another important aspect of this algorithm is the way that it displays the patterns found, even with good results it is difficult to find relevant patterns among all the studied samples without a proper result visualization component. As such, different combinations of parameterizations and ways to visualize data will be evaluated and their influence in the analysis of those patterns will be discussed. In order to properly evaluate the utility of this tool, case studies will be performed as a final test. Real information will be used to produce results and those will be evaluated in regards to their accuracy, interest, and relevance.

Analyzing Geospatial patterns of syrian refugee flows in southeastern Turkey by use of remote sensing and complementary data

Crisis-affected communities and global organizations for international aid are becoming increasingly digital as consequence geotechnology popularity. Humanitarian sector changed in profound ways by adopting new technical approach to obtain information from area with difficult geographical or political access. Since 2011, turkey is hosting a growing number of Syrian refugees along southeastern region. Turkish policy of hosting them in camps and the difficulty created by governors to international aid group expeditions to get information, made such international organizations to investigate and adopt other approach in order to obtain information needed. They intensified its remote sensing approach. However, the majority of studies used very high-resolution satellite imagery (VHRSI). The study area is extensive and the temporal resolution of VHRSI is low, besides it is infeasible only using these sensors as unique approach for the whole area. The focus of this research, aims to investigate the potentialities of mid-resolution imagery (here only Landsat) to obtain information from region in crisis (here, southeastern Turkey) through a new web-based platform called Google Earth Engine (GEE). Hereby it is also intended to verify GEE currently reliability once the Application Programming Interface (API) is still in beta version. The finds here shows that the basic functions are trustworthy. Results pointed out that Landsat can recognize change in the spectral resolution clearly only for the first settlement. The ongoing modifications vary for each case. Overall, Landsat demonstrated high limitations, but need more investigations and may be used, with restriction, as a support of VHRSI.

Frequency of metabolic syndrome and the food intake patterns in adults living in a rural area of Brazil

INTRODUCTION: Metabolic syndrome (MetS), a risk factor for atherosclerosis and coronary heart disease, is related to an inadequate food intake pattern. Its incidence is increasing among Brazilian adults, including those living in rural areas. Our aim was not only to describe the frequency of MetS in adults with or without MetS but also to compare their food intake pattern as assessed by the healthy eating index (HEI) and serum albumin and C reactive protein (CRP) levels. METHODS: Men and women (n = 246) living in a small village in Brazil were included. MetS was characterized according to the adult treatment panel (ATP III) criteria. Groups were compared by chi-square, student t or Mann-Whitney tests. RESULTS: MetS was diagnosed in 15.4% of the cases. The MetS group showed higher CRP (1.8±1.2 vs. 1.0±0.9 mg/dl) and lower albumin (4.3±0.3 vs. 4.4±0.3 g/dl) serum levels compared to the control group. Additionally, the MetS group showed lower scores (median[range]) in the HEI compared to the control group (53.5[31.2-78.1] vs 58[29.7-89.5], respectively). The MetS group also had decreased scores for total fat and daily variety of food intake. CONCLUSIONS: The results suggest that adults with MetS displayed chronic mild inflammation and a poorer food intake pattern than the control group.

Vitamin C effects in mice experimentally infected with Trypanosoma cruzi QM2 strain

INTRODUCTION: To evaluate the efficacy of vitamin C in reducing the consequences generated by the production of free radicals in the acute and chronic phases of Chagas disease, two different doses of ascorbic acid were administered orally to 60 mice infected by Trypanosoma cruzi QM2 strain. METHODS: The animals were divided into six groups: G1, G2, and G3 for the acute phase study, and G'1, G'2, and G'3 for the chronic stage. The groups G1 and G'1 received 8.6x10-4mg/g of vitamin C daily, whereas G2 and G'2 received 7.14x10-3mg/g daily. The other groups, G3 and G'3, were considered placebos and received 10µL of mineral water. RESULTS: The study of the acute phase showed statistically significant differences between G1 and the other groups at various count days of the parasitemia evolution. The multiplying parasite was slower in G1 until the 11th day, but on the 22nd day it had greater parasitemia than in G2 and G3, and from the 36th day on, parasitemia stabilized at higher levels. However, when the histopathology of acute and chronic phases is considered, one does not note significant differences. CONCLUSIONS: The administration of two different doses of vitamin C was not able to protect mice and to contain the oxidative stress caused by free radicals formed by the metabolism of oxygen (reactive oxygen species) and nitrogen (reactive nitrogen species).

Spatio-temporal patterns of tuberculosis incidence in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, and their relationship with social vulnerability: a Bayesian analysis

INTRODUCTION: The purpose of this ecological study was to evaluate the urban spatial and temporal distribution of tuberculosis (TB) in Ribeirão Preto, State of São Paulo, southeast Brazil, between 2006 and 2009 and to evaluate its relationship with factors of social vulnerability such as income and education level. METHODS: We evaluated data from TBWeb, an electronic notification system for TB cases. Measures of social vulnerability were obtained from the SEADE Foundation, and information about the number of inhabitants, education and income of the households were obtained from Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics. Statistical analyses were conducted by a Bayesian regression model assuming a Poisson distribution for the observed new cases of TB in each area. A conditional autoregressive structure was used for the spatial covariance structure. RESULTS: The Bayesian model confirmed the spatial heterogeneity of TB distribution in Ribeirão Preto, identifying areas with elevated risk and the effects of social vulnerability on the disease. We demonstrated that the rate of TB was correlated with the measures of income, education and social vulnerability. However, we observed areas with low vulnerability and high education and income, but with high estimated TB rates. CONCLUSIONS: The study identified areas with different risks for TB, given that the public health system deals with the characteristics of each region individually and prioritizes those that present a higher propensity to risk of TB. Complex relationships may exist between TB incidence and a wide range of environmental and intrinsic factors, which need to be studied in future research.

Antimicrobial use, incidence, etiology and resistance patterns in bacteria causing ventilator-associated pneumonia in a clinical-surgical intensive care unit

INTRODUCTION : Antimicrobial resistance is an increasing threat in hospitalized patients, and inappropriate empirical antimicrobial therapy is known to adversely affect outcomes in ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). The aim of this study was to evaluate antimicrobial usage, incidence, etiology, and antimicrobial resistance trends for prominent nosocomial pathogens causing ventilator-associated pneumonia in a clinical-surgical intensive care unit (ICU). METHODS : Gram-negative bacilli and Staphylococcus aureus causing VAP, as well as their antimicrobial resistance patterns and data on consumption (defined daily dose [DDD] per 1,000 patient days) of glycopeptides, extended-spectrum cephalosporins, and carbapenems in the unit were evaluated in two different periods (A and B). RESULTS: Antimicrobial use was high, mainly of broad-spectrum cephalosporins, with a significant increase in the consumption of glycopeptides (p < 0.0001) and carbapenems (p < 0.007) in period B. For Acinetobacter baumannii and members of the Enterobacteriaceae family, 5.27- and 3.06-fold increases in VAPs, respectively, were noted, and a significant increase in resistance rates was found for imipenem-resistant A. baumannii (p = 0.003) and third-generation cephalosporins-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (p = 0.01) isolates in this same period. CONCLUSIONS: Our results suggest that there is a link between antibiotics usage at institutional levels and resistant bacteria. The use of carbapenems was related to the high rate of resistance in A. baumannii and therefore a high consumption of imipenem/meropenem could play a major role in selective pressure exerted by antibiotics in A. baumannii strains.

The Pampulha reservoir remains a potential urban focus of schistosomiasis mansoni in Brazil: changes in the occurrence patterns of Biomphalaria species and a new record of the parasite

Introduction The Pampulha reservoir has long been a focus of schistosomiasis transmission in Belo Horizonte, State of Minas Gerais, Brazil. The last malacological study conducted in this urban reservoir was more than two decades ago, and thus, an update on the distribution of the species of Biomphalaria as well as new data on the presence of Schistosoma mansoni in this water body are required. Methods The current distribution of Biomphalaria spp. in the Pampulha reservoir and their infection with S. mansoni was evaluated during 55 malacological surveys conducted between 2009 and 2012. Results Biomphalaria straminea displayed a high population density and distribution, and 13.7% (2,233/16,235) of the specimens collected were infected with larval trematodes other than Schistosoma mansoni. Biomphalaria tenagophila and Biomphalaria glabrata, species currently presenting a restricted distribution and small populations, displayed trematode infection rates of 15.2% (98/644) and 13% (83/640), respectively. Thirteen (2%) specimens of B. glabrata were found to be infected with S. mansoni. In addition, a historical review based on previous and new data on the occurrence patterns of Biomphalaria species in this reservoir is presented. Conclusions The results indicate that the Pampulha reservoir remains a potential focus of urban schistosomiasis in Brazil, and significant changes in the occurrence patterns of Biomphalaria species were verified.

Blood feeding patterns of Nyssomyia intermedia and Nyssomyia neivai (Diptera, Psychodidae) in a cutaneous leishmaniasis endemic area of the Ribeira Valley, State of São Paulo, Brazil

Introduction The aim of this study was to identify the blood feeding sources of Nyssomyia intermedia (Ny. intermedia) and Nyssomyia neivai (Ny. neivai), which are Leishmania vectors and the predominant sandfly species in the Ribeira Valley, State of São Paulo, Brazil, an endemic area for cutaneous leishmaniasis. Methods Specimens were captured monthly between February 2001 and December 2003 on a smallholding and a small farm situated in the Serra district in the Iporanga municipality. The blood meals of 988 engorged females were tested using the avidin-biotin immunoenzymatic enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Seven blood meal sources were investigated: human, dog, chicken, bovine, pig, horse and rat. Results The results showed that among the females that fed on one or more blood sources, the respective percentages for Ny. intermedia and Ny. neivai, respectively, were as follows: human (23% and 36.8%), pig (47.4% and 26.4%), chicken (25.7% and 36.8%) and dog (3.9% and 0%), and the differences in the blood sources between the two species were statistically significant (p = 0.043). Conclusions Both species had predominant reactivity for one or two blood sources, and few showed reactivity indicating three or four sources. Many different combinations were observed among the females that showed reactivity for more than one source, which indicated their opportunistic habits and eclecticism regarding anthropic environmental conditions.

Severe visceral leishmaniasis in children: the relationship between cytokine patterns and clinical features

Introduction The relationship between severe clinical manifestations of visceral leishmaniasis (VL) and immune response profiles has not yet been clarified, despite numerous studies on the subject. This study aimed to investigate the relationship between cytokine profiles and the presence of immunological markers associated with clinical manifestations and, particularly, signs of severity, as defined in a protocol drafted by the Ministry of Health (Brazil). Methods We conducted a prospective, descriptive study between May 2008 and December 2009. This study was based on an assessment of all pediatric patients with VL who were observed in a reference hospital in Maranhão. Results Among 27 children, 55.5% presented with more than one sign of severity or warning sign. Patients without signs of severity or warning signs and patients with only one warning sign had the highest interferon-gamma (IFN-γ) levels, although their interleukin 10 (IL-10) levels were also elevated. In contrast, patients with the features of severe disease had the lowest IFN-γ levels. Three patients who presented with more than two signs of severe disease died; these patients had undetectable interleukin 2 (IL-2) and IFN-γ levels and low IL-10 levels, which varied between 0 and 36.8pg/mL. Conclusions Our results showed that disease severity was associated with low IFN-γ levels and elevated IL-10 levels. However, further studies with larger samples are needed to better characterize the relationship between disease severity and cytokine levels, with the aim of identifying immunological markers of active-disease severity.

Structural transformation in the product space: Patterns and implications

Product fundamentals are essential in explaining heterogeneity in the product space. The scope for adapting and transferring capabilities into the production of different goods determines the speed and intensity of the structural transformation process and entails dissimilar development opportunities for nations. Future specialization patterns become then partly determined by the current network of products’ relatedness. Building on previous literature, this paper explicitly compares methodological concepts of product connectivity to conclude in favor of the density measure we propose combined with the Revealed Relatedness Index (RRI) approach presented by Freitas and Salvado (2011). Overall, RRI specifications displayed more consistent behavior when different time horizons are equated.

Changes in prescribing patterns of benzodiazepines after training of general practitioners

RESUMO: Introdução: As benzodiazepinas são os fármacos ansiolíticos e hipnóticos mais utilizados. O elevado consumo destes fármacos tem representado uma preocupação devido aos efeitos secundários do seu uso prolongado e dependência. Portugal tem a maior utilização de benzodiazepinas na Europa. Este estudo pretende analisar a alteração do padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas após uma intervenção com clínicos gerais. Métodos: A intervenção consistiu numa sessão educacional a um grupo de clínicos gerais. Foi comparado o padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas dos médicos intervencionados com o de um grupo de médicos não intervencionado da mesma região e com o de um grupo de médicos não intervencionados de outra região. Analisaram-­‐se as prescrições de 12 meses antes e depois da intervenção. A análise do padrão de prescrição utilizou como metodologia a Dose Diária Definida (DDD) e a Dose Diária Definida por 1000 pacientes por dia (DHD). A análise estatística recorreu a métodos de regressão segmentada. Resultados: Houve uma diminuição no padrão de prescrição de benzodiazepinas no grupo intervencionado após a intervenção (p=0.005). Houve também uma redução no padrão de prescrição no grupo não intervencionada da mesma região (p=0.037) e no grupo não-intervencionado da região diferente (p=0.010). Analisando por género, prescritores do género feminino prescrevem uma quantidade maior de benzodiazepinas. Os clínicos gerais do género feminino intervencionados tiveram a maior redução na prescrição após a intervenção (p=0.008). Discussão: Os dados demonstraram que a intervenção reduziu a prescrição de benzodiazepinas após a intervenção. A diminuição geral do padrão de prescrição poderá ser explicada pelo efeito de Hawthorne ou pela contaminação entre os três grupos de clínicos gerais. Os dados disponíveis não explicam as diferenças nos padrões de prescrição por género. Conclusão: Este estudo demonstra como uma única intervenção tem um impacto positivo na melhoria dos padrões de prescrição. A replicação desta intervenção poderá representar uma oportunidade para alterar a prescrição de benzodiazepinas em Portugal. -----------------------------ABSTRACT: Introduction: Benzodiazepines are the most utilized anxiolytic and hypnotic drugs. The high consumption of benzodiazepines has been a concern due to the reported side effects of long-­‐term use and dependence. Portugal has the highest benzodiazepine utilisation in Europe. This study aims to analyse the change in General Practitioners’ (GPs) benzodiazepine prescription pattern after na intervention period. Methods: An educational session was delivered to a group of intervened GPs. The benzodiazepine prescription pattern of the intervened group was compared to the pattern of a non-­‐intervened matched group from the same region, and to the pattern of another non-­‐intervened matched group from a diferente region. The research time frame was 12 month before and after intervention. The analysis of the prescription trends used the Defined Daily Dose (DDD) and Defined Daily Dose per 1000 patients per day (DHD) methodology. The statistical methods consisted of segmented regression analysis. Results: There was a decrease in benzodiazepine prescription pattern of intervened GPs after intervention (p=0.005). There was also a decrease in benzodiazepine prescription pattern for the non-­‐intervened group from the same region (p=0.037) and for the non-­‐ intervened group from a diferente region (p=0.010). Concerningthe analysis by gender, female gender prescribed a higher amount of benzodiazepines. The intervened female gender prescribers presented the highest decrease in prescription trend after intervention (p=0.008). Discussion: The data demonstrated that the intervention was effective in reducing benzodiazepine prescription after intervention. The general decrease in prescription trend might be explained by a Hawthorne effect or a contamination effect between the three groups of GPs. The available data couldn´t explain the diferences in prescription patterns by gender. Conclusion: This study demonstrates how a single intervention has a positive impact on improving prescription trends. The replication of this intervention might be an opportunity to changing the worrying benzodiazepine utilisation in Portugal.

Evolutionary dynamics of Chlamydia trachomatis genome and identification of molecular patterns of hypothetical protein coding genes

The obligate intracellular bacterium Chlamydia trachomatis is a human pathogen of major public health significance. Strains can be classified into 15 main serovars (A to L3) that preferentially cause ocular infections (A-C), genital infections (D-K) or lymphogranuloma venereum (LGV) (L1-L3), but the molecular basis behind their distinct tropism, ecological success and pathogenicity is not welldefined. Most chlamydial research demands culture in eukaryotic cell lines, but it is not known if stains become laboratory adapted. By essentially using genomics and transcriptomics, we aimed to investigate the evolutionary patterns underlying the adaptation of C. trachomatis to the different human tissues, given emphasis to the identification of molecular patterns of genes encoding hypothetical proteins, and to understand the adaptive process behind the C. trachomatis in vivo to in vitro transition. Our results highlight a positive selection-driven evolution of C. trachomatis towards nichespecific adaptation, essentially targeting host-interacting proteins, namely effectors and inclusion membrane proteins, where some of them also displayed niche-specific expression patterns. We also identified potential "ocular-specific" pseudogenes, and pointed out the major gene targets of adaptive mutations associated with LGV infections. We further observed that the in vivo-derived genetic makeup of C. trachomatis is not significantly compromised by its long-term laboratory propagation. In opposition, its introduction in vitro has the potential to affect the phenotype, likely yielding virulence attenuation. In fact, we observed a "genital-specific" rampant inactivation of the virulence gene CT135, which may impact the interpretation of data derived from studies requiring culture. Globally, the findings presented in this Ph.D. thesis contribute for the understanding of C.trachomatis adaptive evolution and provides new insights into the biological role of C. trachomatishypothetical proteins. They also launch research questions for future functional studies aiming toclarify the determinants of tissue tropism, virulence or pathogenic dissimilarities among C. trachomatisstrains.

Genome-scale metabolic network reconstruction of Polaromonas sp. strain JS666: analysis of cDCE degradation rates and design of experiments for bioremediation improvement

Release of chloroethene compounds into the environment often results in groundwater contamination, which puts people at risk of exposure by drinking contaminated water. cDCE (cis-1,2-dichloroethene) accumulation on subsurface environments is a common environmental problem due to stagnation and partial degradation of other precursor chloroethene species. Polaromonas sp. strain JS666 apparently requires no exotic growth factors to be used as a bioaugmentation agent for aerobic cDCE degradation. Although being the only suitable microorganism found capable of such, further studies are needed for improving the intrinsic bioremediation rates and fully comprehend the metabolic processes involved. In order to do so, a metabolic model, iJS666, was reconstructed from genome annotation and available bibliographic data. FVA (Flux Variability Analysis) and FBA (Flux Balance Analysis) techniques were used to satisfactory validate the predictive capabilities of the iJS666 model. The iJS666 model was able to predict biomass growth for different previously tested conditions, allowed to design key experiments which should be done for further model improvement and, also, produced viable predictions for the use of biostimulant metabolites in the cDCE biodegradation.

Molecular characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis isolates from Tehran, Iran by restriction fragment length polymorphism analysis and spoligotyping

Abstract: INTRODUCTION Characterization of Mycobacterium tuberculosis (MTB) isolates by DNA fingerprinting has contributed to tuberculosis (TB) control. The aim of this study was to determine the genetic diversity of MTB isolates from Tehran province in Iran. METHODS MTB isolates from 60 Iranian and 10 Afghan TB patients were fingerprinted by standard IS6110-restriction fragment length polymorphism (RFLP) analysis and spoligotyping. RESULTS The copy number of IS6110 ranged from 10-24 per isolate. The isolates were classified into 22 clusters showing ≥ 80% similarity by RFLP analysis. Fourteen multidrug-resistant (MDR) isolates were grouped into 4 IS6110-RFLP clusters, with 10 isolates [71% (95% CI: 45-89%)] in 1 cluster, suggesting a possible epidemiological linkage. Eighteen Iranian isolates showed ≥ 80% similarity with Afghan isolates. There were no strains with identical fingerprints. Spoligotyping of 70 isolates produced 23 distinct patterns. Sixty (85.7%) isolates were grouped into 13 clusters, while the remaining 10 isolates (14.2%) were not clustered. Ural (formerly Haarlem4) (n = 22, 31.4%) was the most common family followed by Central Asian strain (CAS) (n = 18, 25.7%) and T (n = 9, 12.8%) families. Only 1strain was characterized as having the Beijing genotype. Among 60 Iranian and 10 Afghan MTB isolates, 25% (95% CI: 16-37) and 70% (95% CI: 39-89) were categorized as Ural lineage, respectively. CONCLUSIONS A higher prevalence of Ural family MTB isolates among Afghan patients than among Iranian patients suggests the possible transmission of this lineage following the immigration of Afghans to Iran.

Life cycle of Trypanosoma cruzi (y strain) in mice

Since 1958, we have studied experimental Chagas' disease (CD) by subcutaneous inoculation of 1,000 blood forms of Trypanosoma cruzi (Y strain) in Balb/C. mice. Evolution of parasitemia remained constant, beginning on the 5th and 6th day of the disease, increasing progressively, achieving a maximum on about the 30th day. After another month, only a few forms were present, and they disappeared from the circulation after the third month, as determined from direct examination of slides and the use of a Neubauer Counting Chamber. These events coincided with the appearance of amastigote nests in the tissues (especially the cardiac ones), starting the first week, and following the Gauss parasitemia curve, but they were not in parallel until the chronic stage. In 1997, we began to note the following changes: Parasites appeared in the circulation during the first week and disappeared starting on the 7th day, and there was a coincident absence of the amastigote nests in the tissues. A careful study verified that young forms in the evolutionary cycle of T. cruzi (epi + amastigotes) began to appear alongside the trypomastigotes in the circulation on the 5th and 7th post-inoculation day. At the same time, rounded, oval, and spindle shapes were seen circulating through the capillaries and sinusoids of the tissues, principally of the hematopoietic organs. Stasis occurs because the diameter of the circulating parasites is greater than the vessels, and this makes them more visible. Examination of the sternal bone marrow revealed young cells with elongated forms and others truncated in the shape of a "C" occupying the internal surface of the blood cells that had empty central portions (erythrocytes?). We hypothesize that there could be a loss of virulence or mutation of the Y strain of Trypanosoma cruzi.