886 resultados para social processes - predictions


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An aim of government and the international community is to respond to global processes and crises through a range of policy and practical approaches that help limit damage from shocks and stresses. Three approaches to vulnerability reduction that have become particularly prominent in recent years are social protection (SP), disaster risk reduction (DRR) and climate change adaptation (CCA). Although these approaches have much in common, they have developed separately over the last two decades. However, given the increasingly complex and interlinked array of risks that poor and vulnerable people face, it is likely that they will not be sufficient in the long run if they continue to be applied in isolation from one another. In recognition of this challenge, the concept of Adaptive Social Protection (ASP) has been developed. ASP refers to a series of measures which aims to build resilience of the poorest and most vulnerable people to climate change by combining elements of SP, DRR and CCA in programmes and projects. The aim of this paper is to provide an initial assessment of the ways in which these elements are being brought together in development policy and practice. It does this by conducting a meta-analysis of 124 agricultural programmes implemented in five countries in south Asia. These are Afghanistan, Bangladesh, India, Nepal and Pakistan. The findings show that full integration of SP, DRR and CCA is relatively limited in south Asia, although there has been significant progress in combining SP and DRR in the last ten years. Projects that combine elements of SP, DRR and CCA tend to emphasise broad poverty and vulnerability reduction goals relative to those that do not. Such approaches can provide valuable lessons and insights for the promotion of climate resilient livelihoods amongst policymakers and practitioners.

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Social domains are classes of interpersonal processes each with distinct procedural rules underpinning mutual understanding, emotion regulation and action. We describe the features of three domains of family life – safety, attachment and discipline/expectation – and contrast them with exploratory processes in terms of the emotions expressed, the role of certainty versus uncertainty, and the degree of hierarchy in an interaction. We argue that everything that people say and do in family life carries information about the type of interaction they are engaged in – that is, the domain. However, sometimes what they say or how they behave does not make the domain clear, or participants in the social interactions are not in the same domain (there is a domain mismatch). This may result in misunderstandings, irresolvable arguments or distress. We describe how it is possible to identify domains and judge whether they are clear and unclear, and matched and mismatched, in observed family interactions and in accounts of family processes. This then provides a focus for treatment and helps to define criteria for evaluating outcomes.

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The ‘golden saying’ in early modern medicine was ‘Nature is the healer of disease’. This article uncovers the meaning and significance of this forgotten axiom by investigating perceptions of the agents and physiological processes of recovery from illness in England, c.1580-1720. Drawing on sources such as medical texts and diaries, it shows that doctors and laypeople attributed recovery to three agents – God, Nature, and the practitioner. While scholars are familiar with the roles of providence and medicine, the vital agency of Nature has been overlooked. In theory, the agents operated in a hierarchy: Nature was ‘God’s instrument’, and the physician, ‘Nature’s servant’; but in practice the power balance was more ambivalent. Nature was depicted both as a housewife who cooked and cleaned the humours, and as a warrior, who defeated the disease. Through exploring these complex dynamics, the article sheds fresh light on concepts of gender, disease, and bodies.

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An ability to quantify the reliability of probabilistic flood inundation predictions is a requirement not only for guiding model development but also for their successful application. Probabilistic flood inundation predictions are usually produced by choosing a method of weighting the model parameter space, but previous study suggests that this choice leads to clear differences in inundation probabilities. This study aims to address the evaluation of the reliability of these probabilistic predictions. However, a lack of an adequate number of observations of flood inundation for a catchment limits the application of conventional methods of evaluating predictive reliability. Consequently, attempts have been made to assess the reliability of probabilistic predictions using multiple observations from a single flood event. Here, a LISFLOOD-FP hydraulic model of an extreme (>1 in 1000 years) flood event in Cockermouth, UK, is constructed and calibrated using multiple performance measures from both peak flood wrack mark data and aerial photography captured post-peak. These measures are used in weighting the parameter space to produce multiple probabilistic predictions for the event. Two methods of assessing the reliability of these probabilistic predictions using limited observations are utilized; an existing method assessing the binary pattern of flooding, and a method developed in this paper to assess predictions of water surface elevation. This study finds that the water surface elevation method has both a better diagnostic and discriminatory ability, but this result is likely to be sensitive to the unknown uncertainties in the upstream boundary condition

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Using an international, multi-model suite of historical forecasts from the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP) Climate-system Historical Forecast Project (CHFP), we compare the seasonal prediction skill in boreal wintertime between models that resolve the stratosphere and its dynamics (“high-top”) and models that do not (“low-top”). We evaluate hindcasts that are initialized in November, and examine the model biases in the stratosphere and how they relate to boreal wintertime (Dec-Mar) seasonal forecast skill. We are unable to detect more skill in the high-top ensemble-mean than the low-top ensemble-mean in forecasting the wintertime North Atlantic Oscillation, but model performance varies widely. Increasing the ensemble size clearly increases the skill for a given model. We then examine two major processes involving stratosphere-troposphere interactions (the El Niño-Southern Oscillation/ENSO and the Quasi-biennial Oscillation/QBO) and how they relate to predictive skill on intra-seasonal to seasonal timescales, particularly over the North Atlantic and Eurasia regions. High-top models tend to have a more realistic stratospheric response to El Niño and the QBO compared to low-top models. Enhanced conditional wintertime skill over high-latitudes and the North Atlantic region during winters with El Niño conditions suggests a possible role for a stratospheric pathway.

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Consistently with a priori predictions, school retention (repeating a year in school) had largely positive effects for a diverse range of 10 outcomes (e.g., math self-concept, self-efficacy, anxiety, relations with teachers, parents and peers, school grades, and standardized achievement test scores). The design, based on a large, representative sample of German students (N = 1,325, M age = 11.75 years) measured each year during the first five years of secondary school, was particularly strong. It featured four independent retention groups (different groups of students, each repeating one of the four first years of secondary school, total N = 103), with multiple post-test waves to evaluate short- and long-term effects, controlling for covariates (gender, age, SES, primary school grades, IQ) and one or more sets of 10 outcomes realised prior to retention. Tests of developmental invariance demonstrated that the effects of retention (controlling for covariates and pre-retention outcomes) were highly consistent across this potentially volatile early-to-middle adolescent period; largely positive effects in the first year following retention were maintained in subsequent school years following retention. Particularly considering that these results are contrary to at least some of the accepted wisdom about school retention, the findings have important implications for educational researchers, policymakers and parents.

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In this work we present new coupled channel calculations with the Sao Paulo potential (SPP) as the bare interaction, and an imaginary potential with system and energy independent normalization that has been developed to take into account dissipative processes in heavy-ion reactions. This imaginary potential is based on high-energy nucleon interaction in nuclear medium. Our theoretical predictions for energies up to approximate to 100 MeV/nucleon agree very well with the experimental data for the p, n + nucleus, (16)O + (27)Al, (16)O + (60)Ni, (58)Ni + (124)Sn, and weakly bound projectile (7)Li + (120)Sn systems. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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This is a book about solar collectors and the place of these artefacts in a political energy debate that has aroused strong feelings in Sweden during the last twenty-five years. It is a book about the hopes for a less polluted earth, which solar collectors have come to symbolise, and a book about the ways in which problems in utilising solar energy are culturally perceived. One main aims of this study has been to find out more about the conflicting perceptions of solar collectors as 'saviours of the world' and simultaneously as uninteresting or less credible artefacts that 'may come in the future'. Another main purpose of the study has been to describe and explain those cultural processes of modification that are taking place around solar collectors in active attempts to integrate these into established cultural structures.

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Institutions continue to face increasing pressure from faculty, students, and other concerned constituents to divest endowment holdings from perceived social injustices. In this report, investment officers and advisory committee members offer insight into institutional practices used to respond to these concerns through the adoption of socially responsible investment policies and other socially responsible investment options. Contacts offer recommendations on balancing the administration’s fiduciary responsibility to ensure maximum endowment returns with the social concerns of institutional constituents.

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Esta pesquisa avalia o estilo de gestão do CMAS/POA na elaboração da política de assistência social do município, na visão dos seus próprios integrantes (conselheiros). Baseiase no modelo de análise de estilo de gestão estruturado por Rensis Likert, aplicado às condições e contexto de um conselho de assistência social. Todos os 35 conselheiros municipais responderam a um questionário de levantamento de dados quantitativos, utilizando uma escala tipo Likert, com respostas no intervalo de 1 a 4, correspondendo aos estilos de gestão: autoritário-forte, autoritário-benévolo, participativoconsultivo e participativo-grupal. As questões abrangem aspectos relativos às dimensões ou temas: processos de liderança utilizados, natureza das forças motivacionais, do processo de comunicação, do processo de influência e interação, do processo decisório, do sistema de metas e diretrizes, do processo de controle e metas de desempenho e treinamento. Os resultados evidenciam que o estilo de gestão do CMAS/POA é o participativoconsultivo. A análise das variáveis causais permite sugerir diversas ações para tornar o estilo de gestão participativo grupal.

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A busca de um negócio sustentável leva as empresas cada vez mais a se preocuparem com todos os envolvidosna sua cadeia produtiva.Desta forma, o tema responsabilidadesocial vem ganhando terreno. Embora seja uma matéria relativamente nova no Brasil, várias empresas estão procurando estruturar e desenvolver seus programas de responsabilidade social. O presente estudo de caso procurou analisar a responsabilidade social da empresa com foco na Souza Cruz S. A. Através da percepção de diversos stakeholders, procurou-se agregar à empresa subsídios para avaliação e melhoria do programa, bem como contribuir para um aprofundamentosobre o status atual do tema por meio da análise de uma situação concreta.O trabalho analisou o programa corporativo a partir de seis dimensões, a saber: valores e transparência; público interno; meio ambiente; fornecedores; comunidade; consumidores. . Dentre os resultadosobtidos,verifica-seque os gerentespercebema organizaçãocomo socialmente responsável, embora demandem maior participação e envolvimento dos mesmos na estratégia corporativa. Os demais grupos de stakeholders pesquisados, comunidade, sindicado e fornecedores, apontam para uma baixa comunicação do programa por parte da empresa e a necessidade de uma maior participação da empresa na comunidade. De maneira geral, verificou-se que existe um programa de responsabilidade social sendo implantado, este carece de melhorias e que a empresa está desenvolvendoestratégias de negócio e um sistema de planejamento focado em fortalecer a responsabilidade social corporativa. Além disso, procura implantar instrumentos adequados de acompanhamento e monitoramento de suas práticas.

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This article describes some of the current transformations regarding the processes by which information and culture are generated, from the point of view of developing countries. In this brief analysis, the article discusses the role of projects such as Creative Commons for developing countries. It also discusses the idea of legal commons and social commons. While the idea of legal commons can be understood as the voluntary use of licenses such as Creative Commons in order to create a “commons”, the idea of social commons has to do with the tensions between legality and illegality in developing countries. These tensions appear prominently in the so-called global “peripheries”, and in many instances make the legal structure of intellectual property irrelevant, unfamiliar, or unenforceable, for various reasons. With the emergence of digital technology and the Internet, in many places and regions in developing countries (especially in the “peripheries”), technology ended up arriving earlier than the idea of intellectual property. Such a de facto situation propitiated the emergence of cultural industries that were not driven by intellectual property incentives. In these cultural businesses, the idea of “sharing” and of free dissemination of the content is intrinsic to the social circumstances taking place in these peripheries. Also, the appropriation of technology on the part of the “peripheries” ends up promoting autonomous forms of bridging the digital divide, such as the “LAN house” phenomenon discussed below. This paper proposes that many lessons can be learned from the business models emerging from social commons practices in developing countries. The tension between legality and illegality in “peripheral” areas in developing countries is not new. The work of Boaventura de Sousa Santos and others in the 1970s was paradigmatic for the discussion of legal pluralism regarding the occupation of land in Brazil. This paper aims to follow in that same pioneer tradition of studies about legal pluralism, and to apply those principles to the discussion of “intellectual property” rather than the ownership of land.

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O objetivo da pesquisa é construir a história social de uma empresa familiar brasileira fundada nos anos trinta no estado de São Paulo. A investigação acompanhou o desenvolvimento da organização até os dias atuais e pretendeu abranger diferentes dimensões desse processo: econômico-financeiros, políticos, gerenciais e tecnológicos.

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The concept of market orientation appeared in the beginning of the year 1990 as one of the main marketing developments, getting prominence, at the end of the decade, in the strategy area as well. However due to universalization presuppositions and due to the statistical positivism, this concept seems to be limited for an organization type that still receives from researchers' little attention: nationalized companies. These companies origin is linked to the privatization processes, which happened throughout the years after 1990 in Brazil. Using an interdisciplinary approach, this thesis recognizes the main marketing and strategy debates; however it points for neglectful dimensions in both areas, necessary for a broader OPM concept understanding. With the objective of a broader understanding of the OPM concept, this thesis searches for the alignment of the OPM concept with the strategy as social practice conceptions as a framework for the conduction of a case study on nationalized companies belonging to the telecommunication sectors. The exploratory character of the study reveals important subjects that can help the development of the OPM concept in a broader way for future researches as: the government influence over markets, market culture development in nationalized companies and different market concepts existence.

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The Brazilian insurance market is the ambience in which this research study takes place in search for a better understanding of how cultural characteristics are related with organizational signs, practices and expectations on social responsibility. The concepts of social responsibility as well as the concept of culture are presented and discussed from different points of view, in accordance with different authors and trough several methodological approaches, in order to establish a coherent theoretical basis for qualitative data analysis. The phenomenological attitude assumed by the researcher in especial dialogues situations during the field research phase added new possibilities of apprehension or emergence of each studied organization self orientation in terms of pre-occupation with social issues intimately related with their insurance activities in the market place. Final reflections show the complexity of the insurance cultural context in the studied Brazilian segment, in which cultural and subcultural national and organizational singularities appear. However leaving space for common values and coherent orientation toward the peculiar understanding of social responsibility as inherent to any insurance company activities, themselves. Last comments point out that future research studies may give additional contribution for the continuity of the discussions initiated in this dissertation, expecting that some changes in the organizational posture and practices may happen, especially those related with risk taking and broad processes of communication with clients and society as a whole.