Modelling survival data to account for model uncertainty: a single model or model averaging?

This study considered the problem of predicting survival, based on three alternative models: a single Weibull, a mixture of Weibulls and a cure model. Instead of the common procedure of choosing a single “best” model, where “best” is defined in terms of goodness of fit to the data, a Bayesian model averaging (BMA) approach was adopted to account for model uncertainty. This was illustrated using a case study in which the aim was the description of lymphoma cancer survival with covariates given by phenotypes and gene expression. The results of this study indicate that if the sample size is sufficiently large, one of the three models emerge as having highest probability given the data, as indicated by the goodness of fit measure; the Bayesian information criterion (BIC). However, when the sample size was reduced, no single model was revealed as “best”, suggesting that a BMA approach would be appropriate. Although a BMA approach can compromise on goodness of fit to the data (when compared to the true model), it can provide robust predictions and facilitate more detailed investigation of the relationships between gene expression and patient survival. Keywords: Bayesian modelling; Bayesian model averaging; Cure model; Markov Chain Monte Carlo; Mixture model; Survival analysis; Weibull distribution

A porcine deep dermal partial thickness burn model with hypertrophic scarring

We developed a reproducible model of deep dermal partial thickness burn injury in juvenile Large White pigs. The contact burn is created using water at 92 degrees C for 15s in a bottle with the bottom replaced with plastic wrap. The depth of injury was determined by a histopathologist who examined tissue sections 2 and 6 days after injury in a blinded manner. Upon creation, the circular wound area developed white eschar and a hyperaemic zone around the wound border. Animals were kept for 6 weeks or 99 days to examine the wound healing process. The wounds took between 3 and 5 weeks for complete re-epithelialisation. Most wounds developed contracted, purple, hypertrophic scars. On measurement, the thickness of the burned skin was approximately 1.8 times that of the control skin at week 6 and approximately 2.2 times thicker than control skin at 99 days after injury. We have developed various methods to assess healing wounds, including digital photographic analysis, depth of organising granulation tissue, immunohistochemistry, electron microscopy and tensiometry. Immunohistochemistry and electron microscopy showed that our porcine hypertrophic scar appears similar to human hypertrophic scarring. The development of this model allows us to test and compare different treatments on burn wounds.

IEEE 802.11p empirical performance model from evaluations on test tracks

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for intervehicular communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band; it is planned to be widely deployed to enable cooperative systems. 802.11p uses and performance have been studied theoretically and in simulations over the past years. Unfortunately, many of these results have not been confirmed by on-tracks experimentation. In this paper, we describe field trials of 802.11p technology with our test vehicles; metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss are examined. Then, we propose a detailed modelisation of 802.11p that can be used to accurately simulate its performance within Cooperative Systems (CS) applications.

Kinetics of low-pressure, low-temperature graphene growth : toward single-layer, single-crystalline structure

Graphene grown on metal catalysts with low carbon solubility is a highly competitive alternative to exfoliated and other forms of graphene, yet a single-layer, single-crystal structure remains a challenge because of the large number of randomly oriented nuclei that form grain boundaries when stitched together. A kinetic model of graphene nucleation and growth is developed to elucidate the effective controls of the graphene island density and surface coverage from the onset of nucleation to the full monolayer formation in low-pressure, low-temperature CVD. The model unprecedentedly involves the complete cycle of the elementary gas-phase and surface processes and shows a precise quantitative agreement with the recent low-energy electron diffraction measurements and also explains numerous parameter trends from a host of experimental reports. These agreements are demonstrated for a broad pressure range as well as different combinations of precursor gases and supporting catalysts. The critical role of hydrogen in controlling the graphene nucleation and monolayer formation is revealed and quantified. The model is generic and can be extended to even broader ranges of catalysts and precursor gases/pressures to enable the as yet elusive effective control of the crystalline structure and number of layers of graphene using the minimum amounts of matter and energy.

Controlled electronic transport in single-walled carbon nanotube networks : selecting electron hopping and chemical doping mechanisms

The electronic transport in both intrinsic and acid-treated single-walled carbon nanotube networks containing more than 90% semiconducting nanotubes is investigated using temperature-dependent resistance measurements. The semiconducting behavior observed in the intrinsic network is attributed to the three-dimensional electron hopping mechanism. In contrast, the chemical doping mechanism in the acid-treated network is found to be responsible for the revealed metal-like linear resistivity dependence in a broad temperature range. This effective method to control the electrical conductivity of single-walled carbon nanotube networks is promising for future nanoscale electronics, thermometry, and bolometry. © 2010 American Institute of Physics.

Magnetic-field-enhanced synthesis of single-wall carbon nanotubes in arc discharge

The ability to control the properties of single-wall nanotubes (SWNTs) produced in the arc discharge is important for many practical applications. Our experiments suggest that the length of SWNTs significantly increases (up to 4000 nm), along with the purity of the carbon deposit, when the magnetic field is applied to arc discharge. Scanning electron microscopy and transmission electron microscopy analyses have demonstrated that the carbon deposit produced in the magnetic-field-enhanced arc mainly consists of the isolated and bunched SWNTs. A model of a carbon nanotube interaction and growth in the thermal plasma was developed, which considers several important effects such as anode ablation that supplies the carbon plasma in an anodic arc discharge technique, and the momentum, charge, and energy transfer processes between nanotube and plasma. It is shown that the nanotube charge with respect to the plasma as well as nanotube length depend on plasma density and electric field in the interelectrode gap. For instance, nanotube charge changes from negative to positive value with an electron density decrease. The numerical simulations based on the Monte Carlo technique were performed, which explain an increase in the nanotubes produced in the magnetic-field-enhanced arc discharge. © 2008 American Institute of Physics.

Spatially averaged model of complex-plasma discharge with self-consistent electron energy distribution

A global, or averaged, model for complex low-pressure argon discharge plasmas containing dust grains is presented. The model consists of particle and power balance equations taking into account power loss on the dust grains and the discharge wall. The electron energy distribution is determined by a Boltzmann equation. The effects of the dust and the external conditions, such as the input power and neutral gas pressure, on the electron energy distribution, the electron temperature, the electron and ion number densities, and the dust charge are investigated. It is found that the dust subsystem can strongly affect the stationary state of the discharge by dynamically modifying the electron energy distribution, the electron temperature, the creation and loss of the plasma particles, as well as the power deposition. In particular, the power loss to the dust grains can take up a significant portion of the input power, often even exceeding the loss to the wall.

Part 2. MOO methods for multidisciplinary design using parallel evolutionary algorithms, game theory and hierarchical topology. (Part 2.) Numerical aspects and implementation of model test cases

These lecture notes describe the use and implementation of a framework in which mathematical as well as engineering optimisation problems can be analysed. The foundations of the framework and algorithms described -Hierarchical Asynchronous Parallel Evolutionary Algorithms (HAPEAs) - lie upon traditional evolution strategies and incorporate the concepts of a multi-objective optimisation, hierarchical topology, asynchronous evaluation of candidate solutions , parallel computing and game strategies. In a step by step approach, the numerical implementation of EAs and HAPEAs for solving multi criteria optimisation problems is conducted providing the reader with the knowledge to reproduce these hand on training in his – her- academic or industrial environment.

Stress relaxation analysis of single chondrocytes using porohyperelastic model based on AFM experiments

The aim of this study is to investigate the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes using the Porohyperelastic (PHE) model and inverse Finite Element Analysis (FEA). Firstly, based on Atomic Force Microscopy (AFM) technique, we have found that the chondrocytes exhibited stress relaxation behavior. We explored the mechanism of this stress relaxation behavior and concluded that the intracellular fluid exuding out from the cells during deformation plays the most important role in the stress relaxation. Next, we have applied the inverse FEA technique to determine necessary material parameters for PHE model to simulate this stress relaxation behavior as this model is proven capable of capturing the non-linear behavior and the fluid-solid interaction during the stress relaxation of the single chondrocytes. It is observed that this PHE model can precisely capture the stress relaxation behavior of single chondrocytes and would be a suitable model for cell biomechanics.

A poroviscohyperelastic model for numerical analysis of mechanical behavior of single chondrocyte

The aim of this paper is to utilize a poroviscohyperelastic (PVHE) model which is developed based on the porohyperelastic (PHE) model to explore the mechanical deformation properties of single chondrocytes. Both creep and relaxation responses are investigated by using FEM models of micropipette aspiration and AFM experiments, respectively. The newly developed PVHE model is compared thoroughly with the SnHS and PHE models. It has been found that the PVHE can accurately capture both creep and stress relaxation behaviors of chondrocytes better than other two models. Hence, the PVHE is a promising model to investigate mechanical properties of single chondrocytes.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Design of laboratory model and test plan

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring (SHM) have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Fieldwork has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. Informed by a brief review of the literature, this paper documents the design and proposed test plan of a structurally complex laboratory bridge model that has been specifically designed for the purpose of SHM research. Preliminary results have been presented in the companion paper.

Parameterization and reliability of single-leg balance test assessed with inertial sensors in stroke survivors: a cross-sectional study

Background and purpose There are no published studies on the parameterisation and reliability of the single-leg stance (SLS) test with inertial sensors in stroke patients. Purpose: to analyse the reliability (intra-observer/inter-observer) and sensitivity of inertial sensors used for the SLS test in stroke patients. Secondary objective: to compare the records of the two inertial sensors (trunk and lumbar) to detect any significant differences in the kinematic data obtained in the SLS test. Methods Design: cross-sectional study. While performing the SLS test, two inertial sensors were placed at lumbar (L5-S1) and trunk regions (T7–T8). Setting: Laboratory of Biomechanics (Health Science Faculty - University of Málaga). Participants: Four chronic stroke survivors (over 65 yrs old). Measurement: displacement and velocity, Rotation (X-axis), Flexion/Extension (Y-axis), Inclination (Z-axis); Resultant displacement and velocity (V): RV=(Vx2+Vy2+Vz2)−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−−√ Along with SLS kinematic variables, descriptive analyses, differences between sensors locations and intra-observer and inter-observer reliability were also calculated. Results Differences between the sensors were significant only for left inclination velocity (p = 0.036) and extension displacement in the non-affected leg with eyes open (p = 0.038). Intra-observer reliability of the trunk sensor ranged from 0.889-0.921 for the displacement and 0.849-0.892 for velocity. Intra-observer reliability of the lumbar sensor was between 0.896-0.949 for the displacement and 0.873-0.894 for velocity. Inter-observer reliability of the trunk sensor was between 0.878-0.917 for the displacement and 0.847-0.884 for velocity. Inter-observer reliability of the lumbar sensor ranged from 0.870-0.940 for the displacement and 0.863-0.884 for velocity. Conclusion There were no significant differences between the kinematic records made by an inertial sensor during the development of the SLS testing between two inertial sensors placed in the lumbar and thoracic regions. In addition, inertial sensors. Have the potential to be reliable, valid and sensitive instruments for kinematic measurements during SLS testing but further research is needed.

The effects of prediction, understanding, and control: A test of the stress antidote model

A study was undertaken to examine further the effects of perceived work control on employee adjustment. On the basis of the stress antidote model, it was proposed that high levels of prediction, understanding, and control of work-related events would have direct, indirect, and interactive effects on levels of employee adjustment. These hypotheses were tested in a short-term longitudinal study of 137 employees of a large retail organization. The stress antidote measures appeared to be indirectly related to employee adjustment, via their effects on perceptions of work stress. There was weak evidence for the proposal that prediction, understanding, and control would buffer the negative effects of work stress. Additional analyses indicated that the observed effects of prediction, understanding, and control were independent of employees' generalized control beliefs. However, there was no support for the proposal that the effects of the stress antidote measures would be dependent on employees' generalized control beliefs.

Effects of particle size distribution in the response of model granular materials in multi-ring shear

Rail track undergoes complex loading patterns under moving traffic conditions compared to roads due to its continued and discontinued multi-layered structure, including rail, sleepers, ballast layer, sub-ballast layer, and subgrade. Particle size distributions (PSDs) of ballast, subballast, and subgrade layers can be critical in cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under moving traffic on frequent track degradation of rail tracks, especially at bridge transition zones. Conventional test approaches: static shear and cyclic single-point load tests are however unable to replicate actual loading patterns of moving train. Multi-ring shear apparatus; a new type of torsional simple shear apparatus, which can reproduce moving traffic conditions, was used in this study to investigate influence of particle size distribution of rail track layers on cyclic plastic deformation. Three particle size distributions, using glass beads were examined under different loading patterns: cyclic sin-gle-point load, and cyclic moving wheel load to evaluate cyclic plastic deformation of rail track under different loading methods. The results of these tests suggest that particle size distributions of rail track structural layers have significant impacts on cyclic plastic deformation under moving train load. Further, the limitations in con-ventional test methods used in laboratories to estimate the plastic deformation of rail track materials lead to underestimate the plastic deformation of rail tracks.

Observation of kink shear bands in an aluminium single crystal fracture specimen

The near-tip deformation field in a high-constraint three-point bend specimen of pure aluminium single crystal is studied using in situ electron back-scattered diffraction and optical metallography. The orientation considered has the notch lying on the (0 1 0) plane and the notch front along direction. Results clearly show the occurrence of a kink shear sector boundary at 90° to the notch line on the specimen free surface as predicted by the analytical model of Rice [J.R. Rice, Mech. Mater. 6 (1987) 317].