The asymmetric behavior of the U.S public debt

Our main goal in this paper was to measure how e¢ cient is risk sharing between countries. In order to do so, we have used a international risk sharIn this paper we re-analyze the question of the U.S. public debt sustainability by using a quantile autoregression model. This modeling allows for testing whether the behavior of U.S. public debt is asymmetric or not. Our results provide evidence of a band of sustainability. Outside this band, the U.S. public debt is unsustainable. We also nd scal policy to be adequate in the sense that occasional episodes in which the public debt moves out of the band do not pose a threat to long run sustainability.

The asymmetric behavior of the U.S. public debt

In this paper we re-analyze the question of the U.S. public debt sustainability by using a quantile autoregression model. This modeling allows for testing whether the behavior of U.S. public debt is asymmetric or not. Our results provide evidence of a band of sustainability. Outside this band, the U.S. public debt is unsustainable. We also find fiscal policy to be adequate in the sense that occasional episodes in which the public debt moves out of the band do not pose a threat to long run sustainability.

The behavior of temporary sales in a macroeconomic context

Nós investigamos promoções temporárias usando uma base de dados detalhada de 13 anos sobre preços ao consumidor no Brasil, com cotações de preços coletadas decendialmente. Nós encontramos forte evidências da existência de relação entre a frequência e tamanho de promoções e as variáveis macroeconômicas. A crença comum na literatura de que promoções não reagem a mudanças nas variáveis macroeconômicas pode ser devido a baixa volatilidade do cenário macro- econômico nos países analisados até o presente momento.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual horizons. The data to be used consists of metal-commodity prices in a monthly frequency from 1957 to 2012 from the International Financial Statistics of the IMF on individual metal series. We will also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009) , which are available for download. Regarding short- and long-run comovement, we will apply the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature to build parsimonious VARs, which possibly entail quasi-structural relationships between different commodity prices and/or between a given commodity price and its potential demand determinants. These parsimonious VARs will be later used as forecasting models to be combined to yield metal-commodity prices optimal forecasts. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, we will use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. With the forecasts of a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we will apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. The main contribution of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding forecasting, we show that models incorporating (short-run) commoncycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation. Still, in most cases, forecast combination techniques outperform individual models.

Using common features to understand the behavior of metal-commodity prices and forecast them at different horizons

The objective of this article is to study (understand and forecast) spot metal price levels and changes at monthly, quarterly, and annual frequencies. Data consists of metal-commodity prices at a monthly and quarterly frequencies from 1957 to 2012, extracted from the IFS, and annual data, provided from 1900-2010 by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). We also employ the (relatively large) list of co-variates used in Welch and Goyal (2008) and in Hong and Yogo (2009). We investigate short- and long-run comovement by applying the techniques and the tests proposed in the common-feature literature. One of the main contributions of this paper is to understand the short-run dynamics of metal prices. We show theoretically that there must be a positive correlation between metal-price variation and industrial-production variation if metal supply is held fixed in the short run when demand is optimally chosen taking into account optimal production for the industrial sector. This is simply a consequence of the derived-demand model for cost-minimizing firms. Our empirical evidence fully supports this theoretical result, with overwhelming evidence that cycles in metal prices are synchronized with those in industrial production. This evidence is stronger regarding the global economy but holds as well for the U.S. economy to a lesser degree. Regarding out-of-sample forecasts, our main contribution is to show the benefits of forecast-combination techniques, which outperform individual-model forecasts - including the random-walk model. We use a variety of models (linear and non-linear, single equation and multivariate) and a variety of co-variates and functional forms to forecast the returns and prices of metal commodities. Using a large number of models (N large) and a large number of time periods (T large), we apply the techniques put forth by the common-feature literature on forecast combinations. Empirically, we show that models incorporating (short-run) common-cycle restrictions perform better than unrestricted models, with an important role for industrial production as a predictor for metal-price variation.

The effect of increased light intensity on the aggressive behavior of the Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Teleostei: Cichlidae)

Animals show behavioral and physiological changes that emerge in response to environmental perturbations (i.e., emergency life-history stages). In this study, we investigate the effects of light intensity on aggressive encounters and social stability in groups of adult male Nile tilapia, Oreochromis niloticus (Linnaeus, 1758). The study compared the behavior observed under low (280.75 ± 50.60 lx) and high (1394.14 ± 520.32 lx) light intensities, with 12 replicates for each treatment. Adult fish were isolated in 36-L aquaria for 96 hours, and three males were grouped for 11 days in 140-L aquaria. Agonistic behavior was video-recorded (10 min/day) on the 3rd, 5th, 7th, and 9th day to quantify aggressive interactions and social stability. There was an effect of light intensity and day of observation on the total number of agonistic behaviors performed by the fish group. Besides, increased frequency of aggressive interactions (the sum of the four sessions) by the alpha, beta and gamma fish occurred at the higher light intensity. The dominance ranks of the fish remained unchanged across the observation sessions under both the low and high light intensities. We concluded that enhanced light intensity has a cumulative effect that increases the aggressiveness of the Nile tilapia but that this effect is not sufficiently strong to destabilize the social hierarchy.

Water intake behavior of broiler chickens exposed to heat stress and drinking from bell or and nipple drinkers

The aspects involved in broiler water intake are not well known, despite the importance of water in animal nutrition and physiology. Water intake behavior should be taken into account when deciding on different types of drinkers. Bell and nipple drinkers are the most commonly used in commercial broiler production. Broilers were housed in cages equipped with two different drinker types and raised at two different environmental temperatures (25 and 34 ºC) to evaluate water intake behavior and volume. Broiler water intake behavior was influenced by drinker type. Birds visited bell drinkers less often, but presented higher total water intake per visit to the drinker as compared to those drinking from nipple drinkers. The results of this study suggest that both broilers drinking behavior and water intake volume should be taken into account when deciding on drinker type to equip broiler houses.

Characteristics of forage and feeding behavior of Nellore heifers fed hydrolyzed sugarcane

The objective of this study was to evaluate the chemical characteristics of the forage and ingestive behavior of Nellore heifers fed hydrolyzed sugarcane in different periods of storage. Twenty-four heifers with initial body weight of 119.6±8.1 kg were utilized. The experimental design was completely randomized, in which the treatments were diets with fresh sugarcane and hydrolyzed sugarcane (5 g of lime kg-1 of chopped sugarcane) stored for 24, 48 or 72 hours as the only roughage. The addition of lime to sugarcane associated with its storage up to 72 hours provided an increase of 20% of the potentially degradable cell wall of carbohydrates, from 382.4 to 458.8 g kg-1 of total carbohydrates. The in vitro digestibility of dry matter was altered by the storage of hydrolyzed sugarcane, increasing 7.08% when the storage time was increased from 24 to 72 hours. Heifers fed fresh sugarcane remained more time consuming compared with heifers fed other diets. The time used for water intake was not influenced by the diet. The rumination time presented a quadratic variation in relation to storage time of the hydrolyzed sugarcane, with higher values for the of hydrolyzed sugarcane diets stored for 48 hours. Heifers fed hydrolyzed sugarcane spent more time on other activities than those fed fresh sugarcane. The supply of hydrolyzed sugarcane stored up to 72 hours in the proportion of 600 g kg-1 of dry matter in the diet, alters the intake patterns, reducing the feed intake in Nellore heifers.

Activity, movement and secretive behavior of a threatened arboreal folivore, the thin-spined porcupine, in the Atlantic forest of southern Bahia, Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Behavior of Leishmania major metacyclic promastigotes during the course of infection and immune response development in resistant versus susceptible hosts

Pouco se conhece sobre os epítopos derivados de promastigotas metacíclicos de Leishmania que são importantes para a regulação ou destruição do parasita, como alvos de ação imunológica no hospedeiro vertebrado. Neste estudo, nós investigamos um método alternativo para obter promastigotas metacíclicos de Leishmania major, pela avaliação do curso da infecção e reação de hipersensibilidade do tipo retardado (HTR) em hospedeiros resistentes e susceptíveis. Promastigotas não-infectantes (procíclicos) de L. major, recentemente isolados de amastigotas, foram selecionados pela adesão a colunas de lã de vidro negativamente carregadas, enquanto que promastigotas metacíclicos não se aderem à coluna e podem ser recuperados com facilidade. Condições ótimas de cromatografia foram validadas por análise estatística. O rendimento médio de parasitas obtidos após separação em colunas de lã de vidro e a viabilidade dos promastigotas foram estimados por microscopia óptica. Os promastigotas metacíclicos tiveram um rendimento médio de 43,5% a 57,5%. Camundongos BALB/c (susceptíveis) e camundongos C57BL/6 (resistentes) apresentaram padrões distintos de lesões cutâneas, os primeiros com lesões mais agressivas, induzidas por promastigotas metacíclicos. As respostas à reação de HTR foram maiores nos grupos de camundongos C57BL/6, submetidos à infecção com promastigotas metacíclicos. Estes resultados indicam que o novo método poderia ser integrado aos protocolos existentes para estudar a metaciclogênese de parasitas do gênero Leishmania in vivo.

Evaluation of thermal behavior of latex membranes from genetically improved rubber tree (Hevea brasiliensis)

Thermal stability, thermal decomposition process, residual mass, temperature of glass transition (T-g) and temperature dependence of storage modulus (E'), were determined for latex membranes prepared from six clones of Hevea brasiliensis: IAC 331, IAC 332, IAC 333 and IAC 334 grown at experimental plantations of Instituto Agronomico de Campinas (IAC) in Votuporanga, São Paulo State, Brazil. Latex membranes from GT1 and RRIM 600 Asian matrix clones were used as references. The thermal behavior of latex membranes from genetically improved rubber trees was characterized using thermogravimetry/derivative thermogravimetry (TG/DTG), differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) and dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA). The thermal behavior of latex from clones studied in the present work showed similar features of the clones previously reported (IAC 40, IAC 300, IAC 301, IAC 328, IAC 329 and IAC 330), with mass loss in four consecutive steps, except IAC 333, which showed an additional mass loss step. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Corrosion behavior of Ti-13Nb-13Zr alloy used as a biomaterial

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Optical Behavior of Conjugated Pt-Containing Polymetallaynes Exposed to Gamma-Ray Radiation Doses

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Influence of the estrous cycle on the behavior of rats in the elevated T-maze

The elevated T-maze is an animal anxiety model which can discriminate between anxiety-like and fear-like behaviors. The estrous cycle is an important variable of the response in animal anxiety tests and is known to affect other models. The aim of the present study was to investigate the influence of the estrous cycle on behavior displayed in the elevated T-maze test. Seventeen male and 60 female rats were submitted to one session in this test, with the females being screened for the estrous cycle and divided into groups according to the various phases. The elevated T-maze had three arms of equal dimensions (50 cm x 10 cm), one enclosed by 40-cm high walls and perpendicular to the others, the apparatus being elevated 50cm above the floor. Each rat was placed in the end of the enclosed arm and the latency for it to leave this arm was recorded. These measurements were repeated three times separated by 30-s intervals (passive avoidance). After trial 3, each rat was placed at the distal end of the right open arm and the latency to exit this arm was recorded. Whenever latencies were greater than 300 s the trial was finished. The results demonstrated females in diestrus exhibited anxiety-like behaviors while females in metaestrus behaved in a similar way as the males. There were no differences between groups in fear-like behaviors. The results also indicate the elevated T-maze to be a sensitive test to measure anxiety. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.