Recent oppositely directed trends in solar climate forcings and the global mean surface air temperature. II. Different reconstructions of the total solar irradiance variation and dependence on response time scale

We have previously placed the solar contribution to recent global warming in context using observations and without recourse to climate models. It was shown that all solar forcings of climate have declined since 1987. The present paper extends that analysis to include the effects of the various time constants with which the Earth’s climate system might react to solar forcing. The solar input waveform over the past 100 years is defined using observed and inferred galactic cosmic ray fluxes, valid for either a direct effect of cosmic rays on climate or an effect via their known correlation with total solar irradiance (TSI), or for a combination of the two. The implications, and the relative merits, of the various TSI composite data series are discussed and independent tests reveal that the PMOD composite used in our previous paper is the most realistic. Use of the ACRIM composite, which shows a rise in TSI over recent decades, is shown to be inconsistent with most published evidence for solar influences on pre-industrial climate. The conclusions of our previous paper, that solar forcing has declined over the past 20 years while surface air temperatures have continued to rise, are shown to apply for the full range of potential time constants for the climate response to the variations in the solar forcings.

A statistical mechanical approach for the computation of the climatic response to general forcings

The climate belongs to the class of non-equilibrium forced and dissipative systems, for which most results of quasi-equilibrium statistical mechanics, including the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, do not apply. In this paper we show for the first time how the Ruelle linear response theory, developed for studying rigorously the impact of perturbations on general observables of non-equilibrium statistical mechanical systems, can be applied with great success to analyze the climatic response to general forcings. The crucial value of the Ruelle theory lies in the fact that it allows to compute the response of the system in terms of expectation values of explicit and computable functions of the phase space averaged over the invariant measure of the unperturbed state. We choose as test bed a classical version of the Lorenz 96 model, which, in spite of its simplicity, has a well-recognized prototypical value as it is a spatially extended one-dimensional model and presents the basic ingredients, such as dissipation, advection and the presence of an external forcing, of the actual atmosphere. We recapitulate the main aspects of the general response theory and propose some new general results. We then analyze the frequency dependence of the response of both local and global observables to perturbations having localized as well as global spatial patterns. We derive analytically several properties of the corresponding susceptibilities, such as asymptotic behavior, validity of Kramers-Kronig relations, and sum rules, whose main ingredient is the causality principle. We show that all the coefficients of the leading asymptotic expansions as well as the integral constraints can be written as linear function of parameters that describe the unperturbed properties of the system, such as its average energy. Some newly obtained empirical closure equations for such parameters allow to define such properties as an explicit function of the unperturbed forcing parameter alone for a general class of chaotic Lorenz 96 models. We then verify the theoretical predictions from the outputs of the simulations up to a high degree of precision. The theory is used to explain differences in the response of local and global observables, to define the intensive properties of the system, which do not depend on the spatial resolution of the Lorenz 96 model, and to generalize the concept of climate sensitivity to all time scales. We also show how to reconstruct the linear Green function, which maps perturbations of general time patterns into changes in the expectation value of the considered observable for finite as well as infinite time. Finally, we propose a simple yet general methodology to study general Climate Change problems on virtually any time scale by resorting to only well selected simulations, and by taking full advantage of ensemble methods. The specific case of globally averaged surface temperature response to a general pattern of change of the CO2 concentration is discussed. We believe that the proposed approach may constitute a mathematically rigorous and practically very effective way to approach the problem of climate sensitivity, climate prediction, and climate change from a radically new perspective.

A reappraisal of blood clotting response tests for anticoagulant resistance and a proposal for a standardised BCR test methodology

Blood clotting response (BCR) resistance tests are available for a number of anticoagulant rodenticides. However, during the development of these tests many of the test parameters have been changed, making meaningful comparisons between results difficult. It was recognised that a standard methodology was urgently required for future BCR resistance tests and, accordingly, this document presents a reappraisal of published tests, and proposes a standard protocol for future use (see Appendix). The protocol can be used to provide information on the incidence and degree of resistance in a particular rodent population; to provide a simple comparison of resistance factors between active ingredients, thus giving clear information about cross-resistance for any given strain; and to provide comparisons of susceptibility or resistance between different populations. The methodology has a sound statistical basis in being based on the ED50 response, and requires many fewer animals than the resistance tests in current use. Most importantly, tests can be used to give a clear indication of the likely practical impact of the resistance on field efficacy. The present study was commissioned and funded by the Rodenticide Resistance Action Committee (RRAC) of CropLife International.

On the variability of the surface environment response to synoptic forcing over complex terrain: a multivariate data analysis approach

Synoptic climatology relates the atmospheric circulation with the surface environment. The aim of this study is to examine the variability of the surface meteorological patterns, which are developing under different synoptic scale categories over a suburban area with complex topography. Multivariate Data Analysis techniques were performed to a data set with surface meteorological elements. Three principal components related to the thermodynamic status of the surface environment and the two components of the wind speed were found. The variability of the surface flows was related with atmospheric circulation categories by applying Correspondence Analysis. Similar surface thermodynamic fields develop under cyclonic categories, which are contrasted with the anti-cyclonic category. A strong, steady wind flow characterized by high shear values develops under the cyclonic Closed Low and the anticyclonic H–L categories, in contrast to the variable weak flow under the anticyclonic Open Anticyclone category.

Assessment of surface winds over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific Ocean sectors of the Southern Ocean in CMIP5 models: historical bias, forcing response, and state dependence

An assessment of the fifth Coupled Models Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models’ simulation of the near-surface westerly wind jet position and strength over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors of the Southern Ocean is presented. Compared with reanalysis climatologies there is an equatorward bias of 3.7° (inter-model standard deviation of ± 2.2°) in the ensemble mean position of the zonal mean jet. The ensemble mean strength is biased slightly too weak, with the largest biases over the Pacific sector (-1.6±1.1 m/s, 27 -22%). An analysis of atmosphere-only (AMIP) experiments indicates that 41% of the zonal mean position bias comes from coupling of the ocean/ice models to the atmosphere. The response to future emissions scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) is characterized by two phases: (i) the period of most rapid ozone recovery (2000-2049) during which there is insignificant change in summer; and (ii) the period 2050-2098 during which RCP4.5 simulations show no significant change but RCP8.5 simulations show poleward shifts (0.30, 0.19 and 0.28°/decade over the Atlantic, Indian and Pacific sectors respectively), and increases in strength (0.06, 0.08 and 0.15 m/s/decade respectively). The models with larger equatorward position biases generally show larger poleward shifts (i.e. state dependence). This inter-model relationship is strongest over the Pacific sector (r=-0.89) and insignificant over the Atlantic sector (r=-0.50). However, an assessment of jet structure shows that over the Atlantic sector jet shift is significantly correlated with jet width whereas over the Pacific sector the distance between the sub-polar and sub-tropical westerly jets appears to be more important.

The importance of surface pressure changes in the response of the atmosphere to zonally-symmetric thermal and mechanical forcing

he classical problem of the response of a balanced, axisymmetric vortex to thermal and mechanical forcing is re-examined, paying special attention to the lower boundary condition. The correct condition is DΦ/Dt = 0, where Φ is the geopotential and D/Dt the material derivative, which explicitly accounts for a mass redistribution as part of the mean-flow response. This redistribution is neglected when using the boundary condition Dp/Dt = 0, which has conventionally been applied in this problem. It is shown that applying the incorrect boundary condition, and thereby ignoring the surface pressure change, leads to a zonal wind acceleration δū/δt that is too strong, especially near the surface. The effect is significant for planetary-scale forcing even when applied at tropopause level. A comparison is made between the mean-flow evolution in a baroclinic life-cycle, as simulated in a fully nonlinear, primitive-equation model, and that predicted by using the simulated eddy fluxes in the zonally-symmetric response problem. Use of the correct lower boundary condition is shown to lead to improved agreement.

Urban surface energy balance models: model characteristics and methodology for a comparison study

Many urban surface energy balance models now exist. These vary in complexity from simple schemes that represent the city as a concrete slab, to those which incorporate detailed representations of momentum and energy fluxes distributed within the atmospheric boundary layer. While many of these schemes have been evaluated against observations, with some models even compared with the same data sets, such evaluations have not been undertaken in a controlled manner to enable direct comparison. For other types of climate model, for instance the Project for Intercomparison of Land-Surface Parameterization Schemes (PILPS) experiments (Henderson-Sellers et al., 1993), such controlled comparisons have been shown to provide important insights into both the mechanics of the models and the physics of the real world. This paper describes the progress that has been made to date on a systematic and controlled comparison of urban surface schemes. The models to be considered, and their key attributes, are described, along with the methodology to be used for the evaluation.

Response of El Niño sea surface temperature variability to greenhouse warming

The destructive environmental and socio-economic impacts of the El Niño/Southern Oscillation1, 2 (ENSO) demand an improved understanding of how ENSO will change under future greenhouse warming. Robust projected changes in certain aspects of ENSO have been recently established3, 4, 5. However, there is as yet no consensus on the change in the magnitude of the associated sea surface temperature (SST) variability6, 7, 8, commonly used to represent ENSO amplitude1, 6, despite its strong effects on marine ecosystems and rainfall worldwide1, 2, 3, 4, 9. Here we show that the response of ENSO SST amplitude is time-varying, with an increasing trend in ENSO amplitude before 2040, followed by a decreasing trend thereafter. We attribute the previous lack of consensus to an expectation that the trend in ENSO amplitude over the entire twenty-first century is unidirectional, and to unrealistic model dynamics of tropical Pacific SST variability. We examine these complex processes across 22 models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) database10, forced under historical and greenhouse warming conditions. The nine most realistic models identified show a strong consensus on the time-varying response and reveal that the non-unidirectional behaviour is linked to a longitudinal difference in the surface warming rate across the Indo-Pacific basin. Our results carry important implications for climate projections and climate adaptation pathways.

Voltammetric Studies of Cobalt Hexacyanoferrate Formed on the Titanium (IV) Phosphate Surface and its Application to the Determination of Sulfite

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Evaluation of the Naturally Acquired Antibody Immune Response to the Pv200L N-terminal Fragment of Plasmodium vivax Merozoite Surface Protein-1 in Four Areas of the Amazon Region of Brazil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Response of rat bone marrow cells to commercially pure titanium submitted to different surface treatments

Objectives. Alterations in the commercially pure titanium (cpTi) surface may be undertaken to improve its biological properties. The aim of this study is to investigate the biocompatibility of cpTi submitted to different surface treatments.Methods. The cpTi surfaces were prepared so that machined and blasted surfaces, either acid etched or not, were compared using rat bone marrow cells cultured to differentiated into osteoblast. For attachment evaluation, cells were cultured for 4 and 24 h. Cell morphology was evaluated after 3 days. After 7, 14, and 21 days cell proliferation was evaluated. Total protein content and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) activity were evaluated after 14 and 21 days. For bone-like nodule formation, cells were cultured for 21 days. Data were compared by analysis of variance.Results. Cell attachment, cell morphology, cell proliferation, and ALP activity were not affected by surface treatments. Total. protein content was reduced by blasted and acid etched surface. Bone-Like nodule formation was significantly reduced by blasted, acid etched, and a combination of both blasted and acid etched surfaces.Conclusions. Based on these results, it can be suggested that cpTi surfaces that were submitted only to machining treatment favor the final event of osteoblastic differentiation of the rat bone marrow cells, evidenced by increased bone-Like nodule formation. (C) 2003 Elsevier B.V. Ltd. All rights reserved.

Methodology for automatic selection of passes in surface grinding

The main purpose of this work is the development of computational tools in order to assist the on-line automatic detection of burn in the surface grinding process. Most of the parameters currently employed in the burning recognition (DPO, FKS, DPKS, DIFP, among others) do not incorporate routines for automatic selection of the grinding passes, therefore, requiring the user's interference for the choice of the active region. Several methods were employed in the passes extraction; however, those with the best results are presented in this article. Tests carried out in a surface-grinding machine have shown the success of the algorithms developed for pass extraction. Copyright © 2007 by ABCM.

Role of TLR-2 and fungal surface antigens on innate immune response against Sporothrix schenckii

Sporotrichosis is an infection caused by the dimorphic fungus Sporothrix schenckii. Toll-like receptors (TLRs) play an important role in immunity, since they bind to pathogen surface antigens and initiate the immune response. However, little is known about the role of TLR-2 and fungal surface antigens in the recognition of S. schenckii and in the subsequent immune response. This study aimed to evaluate the involvement of TLR-2 and fungal surface soluble (SolAg) and lipidic (LipAg) antigens in phagocytosis of S. schenckii and production of immune mediators by macrophages obtained from WT and TLR-2 -/- animals. The results showed that TLR-2-/- animals had had statistical lower percentage of macrophages with internalized yeasts compared to WT. SolAg and LipAg impaired phagocytosis and immunological mediator production for both WT and TLR-2-/-. The absence of TLR-2 led to lower production of the cytokines TNF, IL-1β, IL-12 and IL-10 compared to WT animals. These results suggest a new insight in relation to how the immune system, through TLR-2, recognizes and induces the production of mediators in response to the fungus S. schenckii. Copyright © Informa Healthcare USA, Inc.

Reduced in vitro immune response on titania nanotube arrays compared to titanium surface

Material surfaces that provide biomimetic cues, such as nanoscale architectures, have been shown to alter cell/biomaterial interactions. Recent studies have identified titania nanotube arrays as strong candidates for use in interfaces on implantable devices due to their ability to elicit improved cellular functionality. However, limited information exists regarding the immune response of nanotube arrays. Thus, in this study, we have investigated the short- and long-term immune cell reaction of titania nanotube arrays. Whole blood lysate (containing leukocytes, thrombocytes and trace amounts of erythrocytes), isolated from human blood, were cultured on titania nanotube arrays and biomedical grade titanium (as a control) for 2 hours and 2 and 7 days. In order to determine the in vitro immune response on titania nanotube arrays, immune cell functionality was evaluated by cellular viability, adhesion, proliferation, morphology, cytokine/chemokine expression, with and without lipopolysaccharide (LPS), and nitric oxide release. The results presented in this study indicate a decrease in short- and long-term monocyte, macrophage and neutrophil functionality on titania nanotube arrays as compared to the control substrate. This work shows a reduced stimulation of the immune response on titania nanotube arrays, identifying this specific nanoarchitecture as a potentially optimal interface for implantable biomedical devices. © 2013 The Royal Society of Chemistry.