Glaisdale Beck diversion scheme - channel change and suspended sediment response

This paper describes the implementation of a novel mitigation approach and subsequent adaptive management, designed to reduce the transfer of fine sediment in Glaisdale Beck; a small upland catchment in the UK. Hydro-meteorological and suspended sediment datasets are collected over a two year period spanning pre- and post-diversion periods in order to assess the impact of the channel reconfiguration scheme on the fluvial suspended sediment dynamics. Analysis of the river response demonstrates that the fluvial sediment system has become more restrictive with reduced fine sediment transfer. This is characterised by reductions in flow-weighted mean suspended sediment concentrations from 77.93 mg/l prior to mitigation, to 74.36 mg/l following the diversion. A Mann-Whitney U test found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001) between the pre- and post-monitoring median SSCs. Whilst application of one-way analysis of covariance (ANCOVA) on the coefficients of sediment rating curves developed before and after the diversion found statistically significant differences (p < 0.001), with both Log a and b coefficients becoming smaller following the diversion. Non-parametric analysis indicates a reduction in residuals through time (p < 0.001), with the developed LOWESS model over-predicting sediment concentrations as the channel stabilises. However, the channel is continuing to adjust to the reconfigured morphology, with evidence of a headward propagating knickpoint which has migrated 120 m at an exponentially decreasing rate over the last 7 years since diversion. The study demonstrates that channel reconfiguration can be effective in mitigating fine sediment flux in upland streams but the full value of this may take many years to achieve whilst the fluvial system, slowly readjusts.

Distribution of planktic foraminifera in surface sediments of the Atlantic Ocean

We present a data set of 738 planktonic foraminiferal species counts from sediment surface samples of the eastern North Atlantic and the South Atlantic between 87°N and 40°S, 35°E and 60°W including published Climate: Long-Range Investigation, Mapping, and Prediction (CLIMAP) data. These species counts are linked to Levitus's [1982] modern water temperature data for the four caloric seasons, four depth ranges (0, 30, 50, and 75 m), and the combined means of those depth ranges. The relation between planktonic foraminiferal assemblages and sea surface temperature (SST) data is estimated using the newly developed SIMMAX technique, which is an acronym for a modern analog technique (MAT) with a similarity index, based on (1) the scalar product of the normalized faunal percentages and (2) a weighting procedure of the modern analog's SSTs according to the inverse geographical distances of the most similar samples. Compared to the classical CLIMAP transfer technique and conventional MAT techniques, SIMMAX provides a more confident reconstruction of paleo-SSTs (correlation coefficient is 0.994 for the caloric winter and 0.993 for caloric summer). The standard deviation of the residuals is 0.90°C for caloric winter and 0.96°C for caloric summer at 0-m water depth. The SST estimates reach optimum stability (standard deviation of the residuals is 0.88°C) at the average 0- to 75-m water depth. Our extensive database provides SST estimates over a range of -1.4 to 27.2°C for caloric winter and 0.4 to 28.6°C for caloric summer, allowing SST estimates which are especially valuable for the high-latitude Atlantic during glacial times.

(Table 3) Mediterranean core-top d18O values for various planktonic foraminiferal species

A box model is presented to simulate changes in Mediterranean long-term average salinity and d18O over the past 20,000 years. Simulations are validated by comparison with observations. Sensitivity tests illustrate robustness with respect to the main assumptions and uncertainties. The results show that relative humidity over the Mediterranean remained relatively constant around 70%, apparently narrowly constrained to the lower end of the range observed globally over sea surfaces by the basin's land-locked character. Isotopic depletion in run off, relative to the present, is identified as the main potential cause of depletions in the Mediterranean d18O record. Also, slight increases in relative humidity (of the order of 5%) might have caused very pronounced isotopic depletions, such as that in sapropel S5 of the penultimate interglacial maximum. The model shows distinctly non proportional responses of d18O and salinity to environmental change, which argues against the use of isotope residuals in Mediterranean paleosalinity reconstructions.

Table 1 Core site, fractional abundance of individual isoprenoid GDGTs and TEX86 values

TEXL86 and TEXH86 are organic palaeothermometers based on the lipids of Group 1 Crenarchaeota, recently proposed as a modified version of the original TEX86 index, but with significantly improved geographical coverage. Since few data from the global core top calibration are from the Pacific, this study was carried out to assess whether the global core top calibration is regionally biased or not. The result of principal components analysis of the fractional abundance of GDGTs, an analysis of variance (ANOVA) and the comparison of the residuals of TEXH 86 derived sea surface temperature (SST) estimates of the Pacific subset with that of the global data set suggest that the Pacific subset has a similar TEXH 86-SST relationship with the global data set. However, the regression line through the Pacific data and an ANOVA on the residuals of TEXL 86 derived SST estimates suggest otherwise. The contradictory findings are likely to stem from the large scatter in the Pacific TEXL 86 values in the mid temperature range. While regionality does not seem to exert a strong bias on TEXL 86 and TEXH 86 calibration, it appears that there is a strong need to resolve the large scatter in the global data set, especially in the mid and high latitudes, in order to improve the calibration for a better SST estimation.

Stable oxygen isotope record of benthic foraminifera from the tropical Atlantic

Benthic foraminiferal oxygen isotope ratios from two sediment cores recovered at 426 and 1299 m water depth in the eastern and western tropical Atlantic show that a slowdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) during Heinrich event H1 and the Younger Dryas was accompanied by rapid and intense warming of intermediate depth waters. Millennial-scale covariations of low paleosalinities in the subpolar North Atlantic with decreased benthic oxygen isotope ratios in the eastern tropical Atlantic throughout the past 10,000 years suggest that THC weakening might be related to middepth warming during the Holocene period as well. Climate model experiments simulating a strong reduction of the THC in the Atlantic Ocean under present-day and glacial conditions reveal that the increase of temperature in the middepth tropical and South Atlantic is a common feature for both climatic states, caused by a reduced ventilation of cold intermediate and deep waters in conjunction with downward mixing of heat from the thermocline. From the similarity of the paleoclimatic records with the model simulations, we infer that the characteristic pattern of temperature change in the Atlantic Ocean related to weakened thermohaline circulation can serve as an indicator of present-day and future THC slowdown.

Terrigenous input and marine productivity for the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean based on lipid biomarkers

In this study, we present a new multiproxy data set of terrigenous input, marine productivity and sea surface temperature (SST) from 52 surface sediment samples collected along E-W transects in the Pacific sector of the Southern Ocean. Allochtonous terrigenous input was characterized by the distribution of plant wax n-alkanes and soil-derived branched glycerol dialkyl glycerol tetraethers (brGDGTs). 230Th-normalized burial rates of both compound groups were highest close to the potential sources in Australia and New Zealand and are strongly related to lithogenic contents, indicating common sources and transport. Detection of both long-chain n-alkanes and brGDGTs at the most remote sites in the open ocean strongly suggests a primarily eolian transport mechanism to at least 110°W, i.e. by prevailing westerly winds. Two independent organic SST proxies were used, the UK'37 based on long-chain alkenones, and the TEX86 based on isoprenoid GDGTs. Both, UK'37 and TEX86 indices show robust relationships with temperature over a temperature range between 0.5 and 20°C, likely implying different seasonal and regional imprints on the temperature signal. While alkenone-based temperature estimates reliably reflect modern SST even at the low temperature end, large temperature residuals are observed for the polar ocean using the TEX86 index. 230Th-normalized burial rates of alkenones are highest close to the Subtropical Front and are positively related to lithogenic fluxes throughout the study area. In contrast, highest isoGDGT burial south of the Antarctic Polar Front is not related with dust flux but may be largely controlled by diatom blooms, and thus high opal fluxes during austral summer.

Sea surface temperature reconstruction based on planktonic foraminifera of surface sediments and sediment cores off Iberia

Quantitative and qualitative analyses of planktonic foraminiferal assemblages from 134 core-top sediment samples collected along the western Iberian margin were used to assess the latitudinal and longitudinal changes in surface water conditions and to calibrate a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) transfer function for this seasonal coastal upwelling region. Q-mode factor analysis performed on relative abundances yielded three factors that explain 96% of the total variance: factor 1 (50%) is exclusively defined by Globigerina bulloides, the most abundant and widespread species, and reflects the modern seasonal (May to September) coastal upwelling areas; factor 2 (32%) is dominated by Neogloboquadrina pachyderma (dextral) and Globorotalia inflata and seems to be associated with the Portugal Current, the descending branch of the North Atlantic Drift; factor 3 (14%) is defined by the tropical-sub-tropical species Globigerinoides ruber (white), Globigerinoides trilobus trilobus, and G. inflata and mirrors the influence of the winter-time eastern branch of the Azores Current. In conjunction with satellite-derived SST for summer and winter seasons integrated over an 18 year period the regional foraminiferal data set is used to calibrate a SST transfer function using Imbrie & Kipp, MAT and SIMMAX(ndw) techniques. Similar predicted errors (RMSEP), correlation coefficients, and residuals' deviation from SST estimated for both techniques were observed for both seasons. All techniques appear to underestimate SST off the southern Iberia margin, an area mainly occupied by warm waters where upwelling occurs only occasionally, and overestimate SST on the northern part of the west coast of the Iberia margin, where cold waters are present nearly all year round. The comparison of these regional calibrations with former Atlantic and North Atlantic calibrations for two cores, one of which is influenced by upwelling, reveals that the regional one attests more robust paleo-SSTs than for the other approaches.

Strength of the Iberian intraplate lithosphere: Cenozoic deformations and seismicity

Previous studies about the strength of the lithosphere in the Iberia centre fail to resolve the depth of earthquakes because of the rheological uncertainties. Therefore, new contributions are considered (the crustal structure from a density model) and several parameters (tectonic regime, mantle rheology, strain rate) are checked in this paper to properly examine the role of lithospheric strength in the intraplate seismicity and the Cenozoic evolution. The strength distribution with depth, the integrated strength, the effective elastic thickness and the seismogenic thickness have been calculated by a finite element modelling of the lithosphere across the Central System mountain range and the bordering Duero and Madrid sedimentary basins. Only a dry mantle under strike-slip/extension and a strain rate of 10-15 s-1, or under extension and 10-16 s-1, causes a strong lithosphere. The integrated strength and the elastic thickness are lower in the mountain chain than in the basins. These anisotropies have been maintained since the Cenozoic and determine the mountain uplift and the biharmonic folding of the Iberian lithosphere during the Alpine deformations. The seismogenic thickness bounds the seismic activity in the upper–middle crust, and the decreasing crustal strength from the Duero Basin towards the Madrid Basin is related to a parallel increase in Plio–Quaternary deformations and seismicity. However, elasto–plastic modelling shows that current African–Eurasian convergence is resolved elastically or ductilely, which accounts for the low seismicity recorded in this region.

Improving the Psychometric Utility of the Hypomania Checklist (HCL-32): a Rasch Analysis Approach

Background The HCL-32 is a widely-used screening questionnaire for hypomania. We aimed to use a Rasch analysis approach to (i) evaluate the measurement properties, principally unidimensionality, of the HCL-32, and (ii) generate a score table to allow researchers to convert raw HCL-32 scores into an interval-level measurement which will be more appropriate for statistical analyses. Methods Subjects were part of the Bipolar Disorder Research Network (BDRN) study with DSM-IV bipolar disorder (n=389). Multidimensionality was assessed using the Rasch fit statistics and principle components analysis of the residuals (PCA). Item invariance (differential item functioning, DIF) was tested for gender, bipolar diagnosis and current mental state. Item estimates and reliabilities were calculated. Results Three items (29, 30, 32) had unacceptable fit to the Rasch unidimensional model. Item 14 displayed significant DIF for gender and items 8 and 17 for current mental state. Item estimates confirmed that not all items measure hypomania equally. Limitations This sample was recruited as part of a large ongoing genetic epidemiology study of bipolar disorder and may not be fully representative of the broader clinical population of individuals with bipolar disorder. Conclusion The HCL-32 is unidimensional in practice, but measurements may be further strengthened by the removal of four items. Re-scored linear measurements may be more appropriate for clinical research.

Symmetric Interior Penalty DG Methods for the Compressible Navier-Stokes Equations II: Goal--Oriented A Posteriori Error Estimation

In this article we consider the application of the generalization of the symmetric version of the interior penalty discontinuous Galerkin finite element method to the numerical approximation of the compressible Navier--Stokes equations. In particular, we consider the a posteriori error analysis and adaptive mesh design for the underlying discretization method. Indeed, by employing a duality argument (weighted) Type I a posteriori bounds are derived for the estimation of the error measured in terms of general target functionals of the solution; these error estimates involve the product of the finite element residuals with local weighting terms involving the solution of a certain dual problem that must be numerically approximated. This general approach leads to the design of economical finite element meshes specifically tailored to the computation of the target functional of interest, as well as providing efficient error estimation. Numerical experiments demonstrating the performance of the proposed approach will be presented.

Incorporação de resíduos cerâmicos vidrados em argamassas bastardas: estudo de propriedades físicas e mecânicas

Dissertação de Natureza Científica para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Civil Perfil de Edificações

Is land condition a useful indicator of soil organic carbon stock in Australia?

The grazing lands of northern Australia contain a substantial soil organic carbon (SOC) stock due to the large land area. Manipulating SOC stocks through grazing management has been presented as an option to offset national greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and other industries. However, research into the response of SOC stocks to a range of management activities has variously shown positive, negative or negligible change. This uncertainty in predicting change in SOC stocks represents high project risk for government and industry in relation to SOC sequestration programs. In this paper, we seek to address the uncertainty in SOC stock prediction by assessing relationships between SOC stocks and grazing land condition indicators. We reviewed the literature to identify land condition indicators for analysis and tested relationships between identified land condition indicators and SOC stock using data from a paired-site sampling experiment (10 sites). We subsequently collated SOC stock datasets at two scales (quadrat and paddock) from across northern Australia (329 sites) to compare with the findings of the paired-site sampling experiment with the aim of identifying the land condition indicators that had the strongest relationship with SOC stock. The land condition indicators most closely correlated with SOC stocks across datasets and analysis scales were tree basal area, tree canopy cover, ground cover, pasture biomass and the density of perennial grass tussocks. In combination with soil type, these indicators accounted for up to 42% of the variation in the residuals after climate effects were removed. However, we found that responses often interacted with soil type, adding complexity and increasing the uncertainty associated with predicting SOC stock change at any particular location. We recommend that caution be exercised when considering SOC offset projects in northern Australian grazing lands due to the risk of incorrectly predicting changes in SOC stocks with change in land condition indicators and management activities for a particular paddock or property. Despite the uncertainty for generating SOC sequestration income, undertaking management activities to improve land condition is likely to have desirable complementary benefits such as improving productivity and profitability as well as reducing adverse environmental impact.

Ampliação e remodelação das redes de abastecimento de águas e rede de drenagem de águas residuais domésticas e pluviais do Hotel Terra Nostra nas Furnas - Ponta Delgada

O presente trabalho de fim de mestrado caracteriza-se pela ampliação e remodelação das redes de abastecimento de águas e drenagem de águas residuais domésticas e pluviais do Hotel Terra Nostra nas Furnas em Ponta Delgada em fase de licenciamento. Este empreendimento é constituído por 2 alas (Ala Deco e Ala Jardim) constituídas por 3 pisos na Ala Deco e 4 pisos na Ala Jardim. A remodelação da rede será efectuada somente onde a rede existente já está bastante degradada ou com um abastecimento deficiente. A sua ampliação vem fazer face ao aumento do número de instalações sanitárias do empreendimento e da cozinha da Ala Deco. O objectivo desta intervenção vem no sentido de melhorar o funcionamento da rede, resolver os problemas existentes com o desgaste da mesma e proporcionar melhores níveis de conforto no seu desempenho. Neste sentido foi realizado um estudo sobre todo o sistema hidráulico do hote, tanto de abastecimento como de drenagem de águas residuais domésticas e pluviais, tendo como apoio para a realização do mesmo a legislação em vigor bem como alguns manuais de hidráulica. Desta forma o referente trabalho vem mostrar toda a solução adoptada para fazer face às deficiências encontradas no sistema bem como a respectiva ampliação das instalações do mesmo.

Seismic waveform inversion for core-mantle boundary topography

International audience

Quantification of air quality in space and time and its effects on health

The long-term adverse effects on health associated with air pollution exposure can be estimated using either cohort or spatio-temporal ecological designs. In a cohort study, the health status of a cohort of people are assessed periodically over a number of years, and then related to estimated ambient pollution concentrations in the cities in which they live. However, such cohort studies are expensive and time consuming to implement, due to the long-term follow up required for the cohort. Therefore, spatio-temporal ecological studies are also being used to estimate the long-term health effects of air pollution as they are easy to implement due to the routine availability of the required data. Spatio-temporal ecological studies estimate the health impact of air pollution by utilising geographical and temporal contrasts in air pollution and disease risk across $n$ contiguous small-areas, such as census tracts or electoral wards, for multiple time periods. The disease data are counts of the numbers of disease cases occurring in each areal unit and time period, and thus Poisson log-linear models are typically used for the analysis. The linear predictor includes pollutant concentrations and known confounders such as socio-economic deprivation. However, as the disease data typically contain residual spatial or spatio-temporal autocorrelation after the covariate effects have been accounted for, these known covariates are augmented by a set of random effects. One key problem in these studies is estimating spatially representative pollution concentrations in each areal which are typically estimated by applying Kriging to data from a sparse monitoring network, or by computing averages over modelled concentrations (grid level) from an atmospheric dispersion model. The aim of this thesis is to investigate the health effects of long-term exposure to Nitrogen Dioxide (NO2) and Particular matter (PM10) in mainland Scotland, UK. In order to have an initial impression about the air pollution health effects in mainland Scotland, chapter 3 presents a standard epidemiological study using a benchmark method. The remaining main chapters (4, 5, 6) cover the main methodological focus in this thesis which has been threefold: (i) how to better estimate pollution by developing a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant; (ii) how to simultaneously estimate the joint effects of multiple pollutants; and (iii) how to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. Specifically, chapters 4 and 5 are developed to achieve (i), while chapter 6 focuses on (ii) and (iii). In chapter 4, I propose an integrated model for estimating the long-term health effects of NO2, that fuses modelled and measured pollution data to provide improved predictions of areal level pollution concentrations and hence health effects. The air pollution fusion model proposed is a Bayesian space-time linear regression model for relating the measured concentrations to the modelled concentrations for a single pollutant, whilst allowing for additional covariate information such as site type (e.g. roadside, rural, etc) and temperature. However, it is known that some pollutants might be correlated because they may be generated by common processes or be driven by similar factors such as meteorology. The correlation between pollutants can help to predict one pollutant by borrowing strength from the others. Therefore, in chapter 5, I propose a multi-pollutant model which is a multivariate spatio-temporal fusion model that extends the single pollutant model in chapter 4, which relates monitored and modelled pollution data over space, time and pollutant to predict pollution across mainland Scotland. Considering that we are exposed to multiple pollutants simultaneously because the air we breathe contains a complex mixture of particle and gas phase pollutants, the health effects of exposure to multiple pollutants have been investigated in chapter 6. Therefore, this is a natural extension to the single pollutant health effects in chapter 4. Given NO2 and PM10 are highly correlated (multicollinearity issue) in my data, I first propose a temporally-varying linear model to regress one pollutant (e.g. NO2) against another (e.g. PM10) and then use the residuals in the disease model as well as PM10, thus investigating the health effects of exposure to both pollutants simultaneously. Another issue considered in chapter 6 is to allow for the uncertainty in the estimated pollution concentrations when estimating their health effects. There are in total four approaches being developed to adjust the exposure uncertainty. Finally, chapter 7 summarises the work contained within this thesis and discusses the implications for future research.