Treeline and climate change : analyzing and modeling patterns and shifts in the Swiss Alps

Summary: Global warming has led to an average earth surface temperature increase of about 0.7 °C in the 20th century, according to the 2007 IPCC report. In Switzerland, the temperature increase in the same period was even higher: 1.3 °C in the Northern Alps anal 1.7 °C in the Southern Alps. The impacts of this warming on ecosystems aspecially on climatically sensitive systems like the treeline ecotone -are already visible today. Alpine treeline species show increased growth rates, more establishment of young trees in forest gaps is observed in many locations and treelines are migrating upwards. With the forecasted warming, this globally visible phenomenon is expected to continue. This PhD thesis aimed to develop a set of methods and models to investigate current and future climatic treeline positions and treeline shifts in the Swiss Alps in a spatial context. The focus was therefore on: 1) the quantification of current treeline dynamics and its potential causes, 2) the evaluation and improvement of temperaturebased treeline indicators and 3) the spatial analysis and projection of past, current and future climatic treeline positions and their respective elevational shifts. The methods used involved a combination of field temperature measurements, statistical modeling and spatial modeling in a geographical information system. To determine treeline shifts and assign the respective drivers, neighborhood relationships between forest patches were analyzed using moving window algorithms. Time series regression modeling was used in the development of an air-to-soil temperature transfer model to calculate thermal treeline indicators. The indicators were then applied spatially to delineate the climatic treeline, based on interpolated temperature data. Observation of recent forest dynamics in the Swiss treeline ecotone showed that changes were mainly due to forest in-growth, but also partly to upward attitudinal shifts. The recent reduction in agricultural land-use was found to be the dominant driver of these changes. Climate-driven changes were identified only at the uppermost limits of the treeline ecotone. Seasonal mean temperature indicators were found to be the best for predicting climatic treelines. Applying dynamic seasonal delimitations and the air-to-soil temperature transfer model improved the indicators' applicability for spatial modeling. Reproducing the climatic treelines of the past 45 years revealed regionally different attitudinal shifts, the largest being located near the highest mountain mass. Modeling climatic treelines based on two IPCC climate warming scenarios predicted major shifts in treeline altitude. However, the currently-observed treeline is not expected to reach this limit easily, due to lagged reaction, possible climate feedback effects and other limiting factors. Résumé: Selon le rapport 2007 de l'IPCC, le réchauffement global a induit une augmentation de la température terrestre de 0.7 °C en moyenne au cours du 20e siècle. En Suisse, l'augmentation durant la même période a été plus importante: 1.3 °C dans les Alpes du nord et 1.7 °C dans les Alpes du sud. Les impacts de ce réchauffement sur les écosystèmes - en particuliers les systèmes sensibles comme l'écotone de la limite des arbres - sont déjà visibles aujourd'hui. Les espèces de la limite alpine des forêts ont des taux de croissance plus forts, on observe en de nombreux endroits un accroissement du nombre de jeunes arbres s'établissant dans les trouées et la limite des arbres migre vers le haut. Compte tenu du réchauffement prévu, on s'attend à ce que ce phénomène, visible globalement, persiste. Cette thèse de doctorat visait à développer un jeu de méthodes et de modèles pour étudier dans un contexte spatial la position présente et future de la limite climatique des arbres, ainsi que ses déplacements, au sein des Alpes suisses. L'étude s'est donc focalisée sur: 1) la quantification de la dynamique actuelle de la limite des arbres et ses causes potentielles, 2) l'évaluation et l'amélioration des indicateurs, basés sur la température, pour la limite des arbres et 3) l'analyse spatiale et la projection de la position climatique passée, présente et future de la limite des arbres et des déplacements altitudinaux de cette position. Les méthodes utilisées sont une combinaison de mesures de température sur le terrain, de modélisation statistique et de la modélisation spatiale à l'aide d'un système d'information géographique. Les relations de voisinage entre parcelles de forêt ont été analysées à l'aide d'algorithmes utilisant des fenêtres mobiles, afin de mesurer les déplacements de la limite des arbres et déterminer leurs causes. Un modèle de transfert de température air-sol, basé sur les modèles de régression sur séries temporelles, a été développé pour calculer des indicateurs thermiques de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs ont ensuite été appliqués spatialement pour délimiter la limite climatique des arbres, sur la base de données de températures interpolées. L'observation de la dynamique forestière récente dans l'écotone de la limite des arbres en Suisse a montré que les changements étaient principalement dus à la fermeture des trouées, mais aussi en partie à des déplacements vers des altitudes plus élevées. Il a été montré que la récente déprise agricole était la cause principale de ces changements. Des changements dus au climat n'ont été identifiés qu'aux limites supérieures de l'écotone de la limite des arbres. Les indicateurs de température moyenne saisonnière se sont avérés le mieux convenir pour prédire la limite climatique des arbres. L'application de limites dynamiques saisonnières et du modèle de transfert de température air-sol a amélioré l'applicabilité des indicateurs pour la modélisation spatiale. La reproduction des limites climatiques des arbres durant ces 45 dernières années a mis en évidence des changements d'altitude différents selon les régions, les plus importants étant situés près du plus haut massif montagneux. La modélisation des limites climatiques des arbres d'après deux scénarios de réchauffement climatique de l'IPCC a prédit des changements majeurs de l'altitude de la limite des arbres. Toutefois, l'on ne s'attend pas à ce que la limite des arbres actuellement observée atteigne cette limite facilement, en raison du délai de réaction, d'effets rétroactifs du climat et d'autres facteurs limitants.

Resistance of Biomphalaria occidentalis from Varzea das Flores dam, Minas Gerais, to Schistosoma mansoni infection detected by low stringency polymerase chain reaction

Biomphalaria occidentalis Paraense, 1981 from Varzea das Flores dam, MG, Brazil, was exposed to infection with Schistosoma mansoni. Individual infection was performed with 140 B. occidentalis and 100 B. glabrata snails using LE and SJ strains. Two groups of B. occidentalis were killed after seven day-miracidia exposure to detect S. mansoni DNA, through the low stringency polymerase chain reaction (LS-PCR), and were negative. The infection rates were 69.2% (LE strain) and 96.7% (SJ strain) for B. glabrata and 0% for B. occidentalis. LS-PCR enabled early resistance diagnosis.

Genetic markers from Biomphalaria tenagophila (Gastropoda: Pulmonata: Planorbidae) obtained by the double stringency polymerase chain reaction technique

Biomphalaria tenagophila, one of the intermediate hosts of the trematoda Schistosoma mansoni, is a simultaneous hermafrodite snail species. In order to analyse the genetic structure of these populations, we performed a double-stringency PCR technique to obtain genetic markers with microsatellites and arbitrary primers in a single reaction.

Comparison of polymerase chain reaction on fresh tissue samples and fecal drops on filter paper for detection of Trypanosoma cruzi in Rhodnius prolixus

PCR detection of Trypanosoma cruzi in Rhodnius prolixus using fresh tissue or fecal drops on filter paper showed comparable results: 38.7% infection rate using the fresh tissue sample and 37.9% by dried fecal drop.

Genetic variability in Brazilian populations of Biomphalaria straminea complex detected by simple sequence repeat anchored polymerase chain reaction amplification

Biomphalaria glabrata, B. tenagophila and B. straminea are intermediate hosts of Schistosoma mansoni, in Brazil. The latter is of epidemiological importance in the northwest of Brazil and, due to morphological similarities, has been grouped with B. intermedia and B. kuhniana in a complex named B. straminea. In the current work, we have standardized the simple sequence repeat anchored polymerase chain reaction (SSR-PCR) technique, using the primers (CA)8RY and K7, to study the genetic variability of these species. The similarity level was calculated using the Dice coefficient and genetic distance using the Nei and Li coefficient. The trees were obtained by the UPGMA and neighbor-joining methods. We have observed that the most related individuals belong to the same species and locality and that individuals from different localities, but of the same species, present clear heterogeneity. The trees generated using both methods showed similar topologies. The SSR-PCR technique was shown to be very efficient in intrapopulational and intraspecific studies of the B. straminea complex snails.

Identification of Biomphalaria havanensis and Biomphalaria obstructa populations from Cuba using polymerase chain reaction and restriction fragment length polymorphism of the ribosomal RNA intergenic spacer

In Cuba, several Biomphalaria species have been reported such as B. orbignyi, B. schrammi, B. helophila, B. havanensis and B. peregrina; only the latter three are considered as potential hosts of Schistosoma mansoni. The specific identification of Biomphalaria species is based on anatomical and morphological characters of genital organs and shells. The correct identification of these snails is complicated by the high variation in these characters, similarity among species and in some cases by the small size of the snails. In this paper, we reported the classical morphological identification, the use of PCR and RFLP analysis of the internal transcribed spacer region of the ribosomal RNA genes for molecular identification of seven snail populations from different localities in Cuba. Using morphological and molecular analysis, we showed that among the studied Cuban Biomphalaria populations only B. havanensis and B. obstructa species were found.

Hepatitis C prevalence and risk factors in hemodialysis patients in Central Brazil: a survey by polymerase chain reaction and serological methods

An hemodialysis population in Central Brazil was screened by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and serological methods to assess the prevalence of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection and to investigate associated risk factors. All hemodialysis patients (n=428) were interviewed in eight dialysis units in Goiânia city. Blood samples were collected and serum samples screened for anti-HCV antibodies by an enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA). Positive samples were retested for confirmation with a line immunoassay (LIA). All samples were also tested for HCV RNA by the PCR. An overall prevalence of 46.7% (CI 95%: 42-51.5) was found, ranging from 20.7% (CI 95%: 8.8-38.1) to 90.4% (CI 95%: 79.9-96.4) depending on the dialysis unit. Of the 428 patients, 185 were found to be seropositive by ELISA, and 167 were confirmed positive by LIA, resulting in an anti-HCV prevalence of 39%. A total of 131 patients were HCV RNA-positive. HCV viremia was present in 63.5% of the anti-HCV-positive patients and in 10.3% of the anti-HCV-negative patients. Univariate analysis of risk factors showed that the number of previous blood transfusions, transfusion of blood before mandatory screening for anti-HCV, length of time on hemodialysis, and treatment in multiple units were associated with HCV positivity. However, multivariate analysis revealed that blood transfusion before screening for anti-HCV and length of time on hemodialysis were significantly associated with HCV infection in this population. These data suggest that nosocomial transmission may play a role in the spread of HCV in the dialysis units studied. In addition to anti-HCV screening, HCV RNA detection is necessary for the diagnosis of HCV infection in hemodialysis patients.

Mycobacterium bovis: polymerase chain reaction identification in bovine Lymphonode biopsies and genotyping in isolates from Southeast Brazil by spolygotyping and restriction fragment length polymorphism

Diagnosis of the Mycobacterium tuberculosis complex by direct PCR of mediastinal lymphnode DNA and microbiological tests were compared in cattle suspicious of bearing tuberculous-like lesions detected during slaughter. The PCR procedure applied on DNA samples (n=54) obtained by adding alpha -casein into the thiocyanate extraction mix was positive in 70% of the samples. PCR confirmed the identification of 23 samples (100%) that grew in culture, 9 samples (60%) that failed to grow in culture, plus 6 (37.5%) samples that resulted in growth of bacterial contaminants. Genotyping by IS6110-RFLP and DR-spoligotyping analysis of seven samples revealed the presence of several polimorphisms. Seven of the isolates contained multiple copies of IS6110, thus defining the existence of five singular genotypes.

Parasite persistence in treated chagasic patients revealed by xenodiagnosis and polymerase chain reaction

Polymerase chain reaction (PCR) was compared with xenodiagnosis performed 20 years after trypanocidal chemotherapy to investigate parasite clearance. Eighty-five seropositive individuals for Chagas disease presenting a positive xenodiagnosis were treated with specific drugs; 37 in the acute phase and 48 in the chronic phase. Fifteen chronic assymptomatic patients received a placebo. Treatment in the acute phase led to PCR negative results in 73% of the cases, while xenodiagnosis was negative in 86%. In the chronic phase, PCR was negative in 65% of the patients and 83% led to xenodiagnosis negative results. Regarding the untreated group (placebo), 73% gave negative results by xenodiagnosis, of which 36% were positive by PCR. Individuals that were considered seronegative (n=10), presented unequivocally negative results in the PCR demonstrating the elimination of parasite DNA. Seventeen individuals had their antibodies titers decreased to such a level that the final results were considered as doubtful and 16 of them presented negative PCR. The molecular method represents a clear advantage over conventional techniques to demonstrate persistent infections in Chagas disease patients that underwent chemotherapy.

Improvement of chronic congestive heart-failure by oral captopril

Catopril, an inhibitor of angiotensin converting enzyme, was given orally during cardiac catheterisation to 6 normotensive patients with refractory congestive heart-failure. 60--180 minutes after administration of 25 mg captopril, arterial pressure fell by 25%, cardiac index rose by 38%, and left-ventricular pressure and right-atrial pressure fell by 25% and 40% respectively. Plasma-renin activity rose while plasma noradrenaline and aldosterone fell. These data suggest that, in the short term, captopril can reduce both preload and afterload, and improve cardiac function, in refractory congestive heart-failure.

Detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA by polymerase chain reaction in the blood of individuals, eight years after completion of anti-leprosy therapy

Thirty eight patients with indeterminate leprosy (HI), at least 4 to 6 years after discharge from multibacillary (MB) or paucibacillary (PB) schemes of anti leprosy multidrug therapy (MDT), were submitted to traditional diagnostic procedures for leprosy and to polymerase chain reaction (PCR) analysis of different clinical samples for detection of Mycobacterium leprae DNA. No significant difference was observed for any of the parameters analyzed between PB or MB schemes of treatment and no indications were found for more efficient outcome of HI using the MB scheme. Remarkably, 18 (54.5%) of the individuals were PCR positive in at least one of the samples: positivity of PCR was highest in blood samples and four individuals were PCR positive in blood and some other sample. Upon comparison of PCR results with clinical and histopathological parameters, no correlation was found between PCR-positivity and eventual relapse. This is the first report on detection of M. leprae DNA in PB patients, more than half a decade after completion of MDT, suggesting that live bacilli are present and circulating much longer than expected, although reinfection of the individuals can not be excluded. Overall, we feel that because of the high sensitivity of the assay, extreme care should be taken about association of PCR results, efficacy of treatment and disease status.

Inhibition of the polymerase chain reaction by sputum samples from tuberculosis patients after processing using a silica-guanidiniumthiocyanate DNA isolation procedure

With the objective to evaluate PCR-mediated detection of Mycobacterium tuberculosis DNA as a diagnostic procedure for diagnosis of tuberculosis in individuals attending ambulatory services in Primary Health Units of the City Tuberculosis Program in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil, their sputum samples were collected and treated with a DNA extraction procedure using silica-guanidiniumthiocyanate. This procedure has been described to be highly efficient for extraction of different kind of nucleic acids from bacteria and clinical samples. Upon comparing PCR results with the number of acid-fast bacilli, no direct relation was observed between the number of bacilli present in the sample and PCR positivity. Part of the processed samples was therefore spiked with pure DNA of M. tuberculosis and inhibition of the PCR reaction was verified in 22 out of 36 (61%) of the samples, demonstrating that the extraction procedure as originally described should not be used for PCR analysis of sputum samples.

Information systems for water resources management improvement in developing countries

Water resources management, as also water service provision projects in developing countries have difficulties to take adequate decisions due to scarce reliable information, and a lack of proper information managing. Some appropriate tools need to be developed in order to improve decision making to improve water management and access of the poorest, through the design of Decision Support Systems (DSS). On the one side, a DSS for developing co-operation projects on water access improvement has been developed. Such a tool has specific context constrains (structure of the system, software requirements) and needs (Logical Framework Approach monitoring, organizational-learning, accountability and evaluation) that shall be considered for its design. Key aspects for its successful implementation have appeared to be a participatory design of the system and support of the managerial positions at the inception phase. A case study in Tanzania was conducted, together with the Spanish NGO ONGAWA – Ingeniería para el Desarrollo. On the other side, DSS are required also to improve decision making on water management resources in order to achieve a sustainable development that not only improves the living conditions of the population in developing countries, but that also does not hinder opportunities of the poorest on those context. A DSS made to fulfil these requirements shall be using information from water resources modelling, as also on the environment and the social context. Through the research, a case study has been conducted in the Central Rift Valley of Ethiopia, an endhorreic basin 160 km south of Addis Ababa. There, water has been modelled using ArcSWAT, a physically based model which can assess the impact of land management practices on large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. Moreover, governance on water and environment as also the socioeconomic context have been studied.

Draft Health and Personal Social Services (Quality, Improvement and Regulation) Order (PDF 56 KB)

Explanatory Memorandum

The Health and Personal Social Services (Quality, Improvement and Regulation) NI Order 2003 (PDF 178 KB)

Draft Statutory Instruments