Accuracy of Brain Multimodal Monitoring to Detect Cerebral Hypoperfusion After Traumatic Brain Injury.

OBJECTIVE:: To examine the accuracy of brain multimodal monitoring-consisting of intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis-in detecting cerebral hypoperfusion in patients with severe traumatic brain injury. DESIGN:: Prospective single-center study. PATIENTS:: Patients with severe traumatic brain injury. SETTING:: Medico-surgical ICU, university hospital. INTERVENTION:: Intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis monitoring (right frontal lobe, apparently normal tissue) combined with cerebral blood flow measurements using perfusion CT. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS:: Cerebral blood flow was measured using perfusion CT in tissue area around intracranial monitoring (regional cerebral blood flow) and in bilateral supra-ventricular brain areas (global cerebral blood flow) and was matched to cerebral physiologic variables. The accuracy of intracranial monitoring to predict cerebral hypoperfusion (defined as an oligemic regional cerebral blood flow < 35 mL/100 g/min) was examined using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves. Thirty perfusion CT scans (median, 27 hr [interquartile range, 20-45] after traumatic brain injury) were performed on 27 patients (age, 39 yr [24-54 yr]; Glasgow Coma Scale, 7 [6-8]; 24/27 [89%] with diffuse injury). Regional cerebral blood flow correlated significantly with global cerebral blood flow (Pearson r = 0.70, p < 0.01). Compared with normal regional cerebral blood flow (n = 16), low regional cerebral blood flow (n = 14) measurements had a higher proportion of samples with intracranial pressure more than 20 mm Hg (13% vs 30%), brain tissue PO2 less than 20 mm Hg (9% vs 20%), cerebral microdialysis glucose less than 1 mmol/L (22% vs 57%), and lactate/pyruvate ratio more than 40 (4% vs 14%; all p < 0.05). Compared with intracranial pressure monitoring alone (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.74 [95% CI, 0.61-0.87]), monitoring intracranial pressure + brain tissue PO2 (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.84 [0.74-0.93]) or intracranial pressure + brain tissue PO2+ cerebral microdialysis (area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve, 0.88 [0.79-0.96]) was significantly more accurate in predicting low regional cerebral blood flow (both p < 0.05). CONCLUSION:: Brain multimodal monitoring-including intracranial pressure, brain tissue PO2, and cerebral microdialysis-is more accurate than intracranial pressure monitoring alone in detecting cerebral hypoperfusion at the bedside in patients with severe traumatic brain injury and predominantly diffuse injury.

Official Central Bank Interventions in the Foreign Exchange Markets: A DCC Approach with Exogenous Variables

This paper assesses the impact of official central bank interventions (CBIs) on exchange rate returns, their volatility and bilateral correlations. By exploiting the recent publication of intervention data by the Bank of England, this study is able to investigate fficial interventions by a total number of four central banks, while the previous studies have been limited to three (the Federal Reserve, Bundesbank and Bank of Japan). The results of the existing literature are reappraised and refined. In particular, unilateral CBI is found to be more successful than coordinated CBI. The likely implications of these findings are then discussed.

Revisiting the Dollar-Euro Permanent Equilibrium Exchange Rate: Evidence from Multivariate Unobserved Components Models

We propose an alternative approach to obtaining a permanent equilibrium exchange rate (PEER), based on an unobserved components (UC) model. This approach offers a number of advantages over the conventional cointegration-based PEER. Firstly, we do not rely on the prerequisite that cointegration has to be found between the real exchange rate and macroeconomic fundamentals to obtain non-spurious long-run relationships and the PEER. Secondly, the impact that the permanent and transitory components of the macroeconomic fundamentals have on the real exchange rate can be modelled separately in the UC model. This is important for variables where the long and short-run effects may drive the real exchange rate in opposite directions, such as the relative government expenditure ratio. We also demonstrate that our proposed exchange rate models have good out-of sample forecasting properties. Our approach would be a useful technique for central banks to estimate the equilibrium exchange rate and to forecast the long-run movements of the exchange rate.

Modelling Breaks and Clusters in the Steady States of Macroeconomic Variables

Macroeconomists working with multivariate models typically face uncertainty over which (if any) of their variables have long run steady states which are subject to breaks. Furthermore, the nature of the break process is often unknown. In this paper, we draw on methods from the Bayesian clustering literature to develop an econometric methodology which: i) finds groups of variables which have the same number of breaks; and ii) determines the nature of the break process within each group. We present an application involving a five-variate steady-state VAR.

Using VARs and TVP-VARs with Many Macroeconomic Variables

This paper discusses the challenges faced by the empirical macroeconomist and methods for surmounting them. These challenges arise due to the fact that macroeconometric models potentially include a large number of variables and allow for time variation in parameters. These considerations lead to models which have a large number of parameters to estimate relative to the number of observations. A wide range of approaches are surveyed which aim to overcome the resulting problems. We stress the related themes of prior shrinkage, model averaging and model selection. Subsequently, we consider a particular modelling approach in detail. This involves the use of dynamic model selection methods with large TVP-VARs. A forecasting exercise involving a large US macroeconomic data set illustrates the practicality and empirical success of our approach.

Who is the fairest of them all? The independent effect of attractive features and self-perceived attractiveness on cooperation among women

The present paper analyzes the extent to which attractiveness-related variables affect cooperative behavior in women. Cooperativeness is evaluated through a Prisoner's Dilemma Game (PDG). We consider several morphometric variables related to attractiveness: Fluctuating Asymmetry (FA), Waist-Hip Ratio (WHR, Body Mass Index (BMI) and Facial Femininity (FF). These variables have been shown to predict human behavior. We also include as a control variable a score for Self-Perceived Attractiveness (SPA). We test differences in these variables according to behavior in the PDG. Our results reveal that low FA women cooperate less frequently in the PDG. We also find that women with lower WHR are more cooperative. This result contradicts the expected relation between WHR and behavior in the PDG. We show that this effect of WHR on cooperation operates through its influence on the expectation that participants hold on the cooperative intent of their counterpart. In addition, we show that the effect of attractive features on cooperation occurs independently of the participants' perception of their own appeal. Finally, we discuss our results in the context of the evolution of cooperative behavior and under the hypothesis that attractiveness is a reliable indicator of phenotypic quality.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregressive process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The Öltered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidenced for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Gender Inequality and the Sex Ratio in Three Emerging Economies

The aim of this paper is to study inequality and deprivations as reflected in the human sex ratio (commonly defined as the number of males per 100 females). The particular focus is on three emerging economies, viz., Russia, India and China. The paper compares and contrasts the experiences of these countries and discusses policy issues. It is noted that while the feminist perspective on the issues surrounding the sex ratio is important, it would be wrong to view these issues always or exclusively through the prism of that perspective . It is also suggested that India and China probably have better prospects of sustained economic growth in the foreseeable future than does Russia.

Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Modelling Housing Prices using a Present Value State Space Model

This paper introduces a State Space approach to explain the dynamics of rent growth, expected returns and Price-Rent ratio in housing markets. According to the present value model, movements in price to rent ratio should be matched by movements in expected returns and expected rent growth. The state space framework assume that both variables follow an autoregression process of order one. The model is applied to the US and UK housing market, which yields series of the latent variables given the behaviour of the Price-Rent ratio. Resampling techniques and bootstrapped likelihood ratios show that expected returns tend to be highly persistent compared to rent growth. The filtered expected returns is considered in a simple predictability of excess returns model with high statistical predictability evidence for the UK. Overall, it is found that the present value model tends to have strong statistical predictability in the UK housing markets.

Prognostication after cardiac arrest and hypothermia: a prospective study.

Current American Academy of Neurology (AAN) guidelines for outcome prediction in comatose survivors of cardiac arrest (CA) have been validated before the therapeutic hypothermia era (TH). We undertook this study to verify the prognostic value of clinical and electrophysiological variables in the TH setting. A total of 111 consecutive comatose survivors of CA treated with TH were prospectively studied over a 3-year period. Neurological examination, electroencephalography (EEG), and somatosensory evoked potentials (SSEP) were performed immediately after TH, at normothermia and off sedation. Neurological recovery was assessed at 3 to 6 months, using Cerebral Performance Categories (CPC). Three clinical variables, assessed within 72 hours after CA, showed higher false-positive mortality predictions as compared with the AAN guidelines: incomplete brainstem reflexes recovery (4% vs 0%), myoclonus (7% vs 0%), and absent motor response to pain (24% vs 0%). Furthermore, unreactive EEG background was incompatible with good long-term neurological recovery (CPC 1-2) and strongly associated with in-hospital mortality (adjusted odds ratio for death, 15.4; 95% confidence interval, 3.3-71.9). The presence of at least 2 independent predictors out of 4 (incomplete brainstem reflexes, myoclonus, unreactive EEG, and absent cortical SSEP) accurately predicted poor long-term neurological recovery (positive predictive value = 1.00); EEG reactivity significantly improved the prognostication. Our data show that TH may modify outcome prediction after CA, implying that some clinical features should be interpreted with more caution in this setting as compared with the AAN guidelines. EEG background reactivity is useful in determining the prognosis after CA treated with TH.

Meta-analysis identifies 13 new loci associated with waist-hip ratio and reveals sexual dimorphism in the genetic basis of fat distribution.

Waist-hip ratio (WHR) is a measure of body fat distribution and a predictor of metabolic consequences independent of overall adiposity. WHR is heritable, but few genetic variants influencing this trait have been identified. We conducted a meta-analysis of 32 genome-wide association studies for WHR adjusted for body mass index (comprising up to 77,167 participants), following up 16 loci in an additional 29 studies (comprising up to 113,636 subjects). We identified 13 new loci in or near RSPO3, VEGFA, TBX15-WARS2, NFE2L3, GRB14, DNM3-PIGC, ITPR2-SSPN, LY86, HOXC13, ADAMTS9, ZNRF3-KREMEN1, NISCH-STAB1 and CPEB4 (P = 1.9 × 10⁻⁹ to P = 1.8 × 10⁻⁴⁰) and the known signal at LYPLAL1. Seven of these loci exhibited marked sexual dimorphism, all with a stronger effect on WHR in women than men (P for sex difference = 1.9 × 10⁻³ to P = 1.2 × 10⁻&supl;³). These findings provide evidence for multiple loci that modulate body fat distribution independent of overall adiposity and reveal strong gene-by-sex interactions.

Impact of the C2/C6 ratio of high-molecular-weight hydroxyethyl starch on pharmacokinetics and blood coagulation in pigs

Rapport de synthèse : Contexte: l'hydroxyéthylamidon (HEA) est largement utilisé comme expanseur volémique en anesthésiologie et réanimation. Cependant, cette classe de produits perturbe le system de la coagulation. Des améliorations restent possibles dans le choix de la combinaison optimale de poids moléculaire, de degré de substitution en radicaux éthyle et de localisation de ces radicaux sur le squelette glucidique des polymères, afin d'optimiser leur efficacité et leur tolérance. L'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué n'affecte pas plus la coagulation sanguine que de l'HEA de bas poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Nous examinons in vivo l'effet d'un abaissement du rapport C2/C6 sur les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques et l'impact sur la coagulation sanguine d'un HEA de haut poids moléculaire faiblement substitué. Matériels et méthode: nous comparons dans une étude prospective, randomisée et parallèle l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 avec l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 auprès de 30 cochons. Avant, pendant et jusqu'à 630 minutes après une perfusion de 30 ml/kg d'HEA, des échantillons sanguins ont été collectés pour mesurer les concentrations d'HEA, les tests de coagulation plasmatique classiques et la coagulation sanguine par thrombélastographie (TEG®, Haemoscope Corporation, Niles, II, U.S.). Les paramètres pharmacocinétiques ont été estimés en adaptant un modèle à deux compartiments. Résultats: la constante d'élimination est de 0.009 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 0.007 ± 0.001 (min-1) pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p<0.001); la surface sous la courbe de concentration est de 1374 ± 340 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et 1697 ± 411 min*g/L pour l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.026). Les concentrations mesurées d'HEA ne montrent pas de différence entre l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6. Les deux solutions d'HEA affectent de façon identique la coagulation sanguine: l'index de coagulation thrombélastographique diminue pareillement à ta fin de la perfusion d'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et d'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.29). De même, le temps de thromboplastine partielle activée et le temps de prothrombine augmentent de manière similaire pour l'HEA 650/0.42/2.8 et l'HEA 650/0.42/5.6 (p=0.83). Conclusion: la réduction du rapport C2/C6 de l'HEA de poids moléculaire élevé et faiblement substitué aboutit à une élimination légèrement accélérée d'HEA. Cependant, elle ne modifie pas l'effet perturbateur sur la coagulation.

A general model to predict individual exposure to solar UV by using ambient irradiance data

Excessive exposure to solar ultraviolet (UV) is the main cause of skin cancer. Specific prevention should be further developed to target overexposed or highly vulnerable populations. A better characterisation of anatomical UV exposure patterns is however needed for specific prevention. To develop a regression model for predicting the UV exposure ratio (ER, ratio between the anatomical dose and the corresponding ground level dose) for each body site without requiring individual measurements. A 3D numeric model (SimUVEx) was used to compute ER for various body sites and postures. A multiple fractional polynomial regression analysis was performed to identify predictors of ER. The regression model used simulation data and its performance was tested on an independent data set. Two input variables were sufficient to explain ER: the cosine of the maximal daily solar zenith angle and the fraction of the sky visible from the body site. The regression model was in good agreement with the simulated data ER (R(2)=0.988). Relative errors up to +20% and -10% were found in daily doses predictions, whereas an average relative error of only 2.4% (-0.03% to 5.4%) was found in yearly dose predictions. The regression model predicts accurately ER and UV doses on the basis of readily available data such as global UV erythemal irradiance measured at ground surface stations or inferred from satellite information. It renders the development of exposure data on a wide temporal and geographical scale possible and opens broad perspectives for epidemiological studies and skin cancer prevention.