The Equiprobability Bias from a Mathematical and Psychological Perspective

The equiprobability bias (EB) is a tendency to believe that every process in which randomness is involved corresponds to a fair distribution, with equal probabilities for any possible outcome. The EB is known to affect both children and adults, and to increase with probability education. Because it results in probability errors resistant to pedagogical interventions, it has been described as a deep misconception about randomness: the erroneous belief that randomness implies uniformity. In the present paper, we show that the EB is actually not the result of a conceptual error about the definition of randomness. On the contrary, the mathematical theory of randomness does imply uniformity. However, the EB is still a bias, because people tend to assume uniformity even in the case of events that are not random. The pervasiveness of the EB reveals a paradox: The combination of random processes is not necessarily random. The link between the EB and this paradox is discussed, and suggestions are made regarding educational design to overcome difficulties encountered by students as a consequence of the EB.

Understanding the 'production' of the schooling identities of young working class boys: time to move beyond the sociological/psychological divide?

In recent times the sociology of childhood has played an important role in challenging the dominance of Piagetian models of child development in shaping the way we think about children and childhood. What such work has successfully achieved is to increase our understanding of the socially constructed nature of childhood; the social competence and agency of children; and the diverse nature of children’s lives, reflecting the very different social contexts within which they are located. One of the problems that has tended to be associated with this work, however, is that in its critique of developmentalism it has tended simply to replace one orthodoxy (psychology) with another (sociology) rather than providing the opportunity to transcend this divide. The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate some of the potential ways in which the sociological/psychological divide might be transcended and the benefits of this for understanding, more fully, the ‘production’ of children’s schooling identities. In particular it shows how some of the key sociological insights to be found in the work of Bourdieu may be usefully extended by the work inspired by the developmental psychologist, Vygotsky. The key arguments are illustrated by reference to ethnographic data relating to the schooling experiences and identities of a group of 5-6 year old working class boys.

Best friends and better coping: Facilitating psychological resilience through boys’ and girls’ closest friendships

This is a novel investigation of whether, and how, a single close supportive friendship may facilitate psychological resilience in socio-economically vulnerable British adolescents. A total of 409 adolescents (160 boys, 245 girls, four unknown), aged between 11 and 19 years, completed self-report measures of close friendship quality, psychological resilience, social support, and other resources. Findings revealed a significant positive association between perceived friendship quality and resilience. This relationship was facilitated through inter-related mechanisms of developing a constructive coping style (comprised of support-seeking and active coping), effort, a supportive friendship network, and reduced disengaged and externalising coping. While protective processes were encouragingly significantly present across genders, boys were more vulnerable to the deleterious effects of disengaged and externalizing coping than girls. We suggest that individual close friendships are an important potential protective mechanism accessible to most adolescents. We discuss implications of the resulting Adolescent Friendship and Resilience Model for resilience theories and integration into practice.

Practicing peace: Psychological roots of transforming conflicts

The practice of sustainable peace is a process that must be initiated, nourished and revised. The
“social energies” of conflict transformation – truth, mercy, justice, peace – offer a useful model to describe the transformative power of this practice. These social energies can be conceptualized as a combination of norms or values, on the one hand, and actions directed toward social reconstruction, on the other. As such, the social energies of conflict transformation are both the guideposts and the engine in the journey of practicing sustainable peace. This article begins by
linking psychological constructs of narrative/voice, empathy/altruism, individual/collective guilt, and security/fear with the social energies, highlighting the interdependence of processes and shifting the focus away from pathology toward an emphasis on harmony. An empirical application of how the four social energies contribute to the mobilization, maintenance and adaptations in on-going peace processes in post-war Guatemala is then presented. By analyzing the interaction among diverse actors and goals in the decade and a half since the signing of the 1996 Peace Accords, current theory is extended in two ways: a) differentiation between elite and grassroots initiatives, and b) specification and evaluation the impact of various efforts on episodic and structural violence. We conclude that although national and local processes have
had limited success, more integrated practices of truth, mercy, justice and peace are necessary if Guatemala is to make sustainable peace a reality. The findings from this case study have policy and practical implications for other countries facing protracted, violent conflict.

Long-Term Imprisonment in Northern Ireland:Psychological or Political Survival?

The chapter reviews the literature on the affects of long-term imprisonment with a focus on concepts of psychological survival, learned helplessness and institutionalization. It then discusses trends in imprisonment in Northern Ireland and the exceptionally high proportion of prisoners serving life sentences. Through interviews with prisoners and their relatives, a critique of the literature is made in terms of the failure to take account of cases of collective prisoner organization and strong political motivation.

Visual morbidity due to inaccurate spectacles among school children in rural China: the See Well to Learn Well Project, report 1.

PURPOSE: Inadequately corrected refractive error is the leading cause of visual disability among children in China; inaccurate spectacles are a potential cause. The prevalence and visual impact of spectacle inaccuracy were studied among rural, secondary-school children, to determine the optimal timing for updating of refraction. METHODS: A random sample of children from years 1 and 2 in all junior and senior high schools in Fuyang Township, Guangdong Province, underwent ocular examination. All children who reported wearing glasses received cycloplegic refraction, vision assessment, and measurement of current spectacles. RESULTS: Among 3226 examined children, 733 (22.7%) reported owning spectacles. Refractive error and spectacle power were assessed for 588 (80.2%) children. They had a mean age of 15.0 +/- 1.6 years; 70.2% were girls, 83.3% had more than -1.5 D of myopia, and 17.9% had presenting vision < or = 6/12 in the better eye. The glasses of 48.8% of children were inaccurate by > or = 1 D; inaccuracy was > or = 2 D in 17.7%. Children with inaccurate glasses (> or = 1 D) had presenting vision in the better eye significantly (P < 0.001) worse than that of children with accurate glasses, and 30.3% had presenting acuity < or = 6/12. In multivariate models, younger age (P = 0.004), more myopic refractive error (P < 0.001), and having glasses > or = 1 year old (P = 0.04) were associated with inaccurate spectacles. DISCUSSION: Inaccurate spectacles are common and are associated with significant visual impairment among children in rural China. Reducing outdated glasses could lessen the visual burden, although refractive services may have to be offered on an annual basis for optimal benefit.

Psychological interventions for children and young people affected by armed conflict or political violence: a systematic literature review.

Youths exposed to armed conflict have a higher prevalence of mental health and psychosocial difficulties. Diverse interventions exist that aim to ameliorate the effect of armed conflict on the psychological and psychosocial wellbeing of conflict affected youths. However, the evidence base for the effectiveness of these interventions is limited. Using standard review methodology, this review aims to address the effectiveness of psychological interventions employed among this population. The search was performed across four databases and grey literature. Article quality was assessed using the Downs and Black Quality Checklist (1998). Where possible, studies were subjected to meta-analyses. The remaining studies were included in a narrative synthesis. Eight studies concerned non clinical populations, while nine concerned clinical populations. Review findings conclude that Group Trauma Focused-Cognitive Behavioural Therapy is effective for reducing symptoms of posttraumatic stress disorder, anxiety, depression and improving prosocial behaviour among clinical cohorts. The evidence does not suggest that interventions aimed at non clinical groups within this population are effective. Despite high quality studies, further robust trials are required to strengthen the evidence base, as a lack of replication has resulted in a limited evidence base to inform practice.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the psychological well-being of general practitioners

BACKGROUND: The health of doctors who work in primary care is threatened by workforce and workload issues. There is a need to find and appraise ways in which to protect their mental health, including how to achieve the broader, positive outcome of well-being. Our primary outcome was to evaluate systematically the research evidence regarding the effectiveness of interventions designed to improve General Practitioner (GP) well-being across two continua; psychopathology (mental ill-health focus) and 'languishing to flourishing' (positive mental health focus). In addition we explored the extent to which developments in well-being research may be integrated within existing approaches to design an intervention that will promote mental health and prevent mental illness among these doctors.

METHODS: Medline, Embase, Cinahl, PsychINFO, Cochrane Register of Trials and Web of Science were searched from inception to January 2015 for studies where General Practitioners and synonyms were the primary participants. Eligible interventions included mental ill-health prevention strategies (e.g. promotion of early help-seeking) and mental health promotion programmes (e.g. targeting the development of protective factors at individual and organizational levels). A control group was the minimum design requirement for study inclusion and primary outcomes had to be assessed by validated measures of well-being or mental ill-health. Titles and abstracts were assessed independently by two reviewers with 99 % agreement and full papers were appraised critically using validated tools.

RESULTS: Only four studies (with a total of 997 GPs) from 5392 titles met inclusion criteria. The studies reported statistically significant improvement in self-reported mental ill-health. Two interventions used cognitive-behavioural techniques, one was mindfulness-based and one fed-back GHQ scores and self-help information.

CONCLUSION: There is an urgent need for high quality, controlled studies in GP well-being. Research on improving GP well-being is limited by focusing mainly on stressors and not giving systematic attention to the development of positive mental health.