gems: An R Package for Simulating from Disease Progression Models

Mathematical models of disease progression predict disease outcomes and are useful epidemiological tools for planners and evaluators of health interventions. The R package gems is a tool that simulates disease progression in patients and predicts the effect of different interventions on patient outcome. Disease progression is represented by a series of events (e.g., diagnosis, treatment and death), displayed in a directed acyclic graph. The vertices correspond to disease states and the directed edges represent events. The package gems allows simulations based on a generalized multistate model that can be described by a directed acyclic graph with continuous transition-specific hazard functions. The user can specify an arbitrary hazard function and its parameters. The model includes parameter uncertainty, does not need to be a Markov model, and may take the history of previous events into account. Applications are not limited to the medical field and extend to other areas where multistate simulation is of interest. We provide a technical explanation of the multistate models used by gems, explain the functions of gems and their arguments, and show a sample application.

Monitoring disease activity and progression in Crohn's disease. A Swiss perspective on the IBD ahead 'optimised monitoring' recommendations.

BACKGROUND AND AIMS The structured IBD Ahead 'Optimised Monitoring' programme was designed to obtain the opinion, insight and advice of gastroenterologists on optimising the monitoring of Crohn's disease activity in four settings: (1) assessment at diagnosis, (2) monitoring in symptomatic patients, (3) monitoring in asymptomatic patients, and (4) the postoperative follow-up. For each of these settings, four monitoring methods were discussed: (a) symptom assessment, (b) endoscopy, (c) laboratory markers, and (d) imaging. Based on literature search and expert opinion compiled during an international consensus meeting, recommendations were given to answer the question 'which diagnostic method, when, and how often'. The International IBD Ahead Expert Panel advised to tailor this guidance to the healthcare system and the special prerequisites of each country. The IBD Ahead Swiss National Steering Committee proposes best-practice recommendations adapted for Switzerland. METHODS The IBD Ahead Steering Committee identified key questions and provided the Swiss Expert Panel with a structured literature research. The expert panel agreed on a set of statements. During an international expert meeting the consolidated outcome of the national meetings was merged into final statements agreed by the participating International and National Steering Committee members - the IBD Ahead 'Optimized Monitoring' Consensus. RESULTS A systematic assessment of symptoms, endoscopy findings, and laboratory markers with special emphasis on faecal calprotectin is deemed necessary even in symptom-free patients. The choice of recommended imaging methods is adapted to the specific situation in Switzerland and highlights the importance of ultrasonography and magnetic resonance imaging besides endoscopy. CONCLUSION The recommendations stress the importance of monitoring disease activity on a regular basis and by objective parameters, such as faecal calprotectin and endoscopy with detailed documentation of findings. Physicians should not rely on symptoms only and adapt the monitoring schedule and choice of options to individual situations.

TM6SF2 rs58542926 influences hepatic fibrosis progression in patients with non-alcoholic fatty liver disease.

Non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) is an increasingly common condition, strongly associated with the metabolic syndrome, that can lead to progressive hepatic fibrosis, cirrhosis and hepatic failure. Subtle inter-patient genetic variation and environmental factors combine to determine variation in disease progression. A common non-synonymous polymorphism in TM6SF2 (rs58542926 c.449 C>T, p.Glu167Lys) was recently associated with increased hepatic triglyceride content, but whether this variant promotes clinically relevant hepatic fibrosis is unknown. Here we confirm that TM6SF2 minor allele carriage is associated with NAFLD and is causally related to a previously reported chromosome 19 GWAS signal that was ascribed to the gene NCAN. Furthermore, using two histologically characterized cohorts encompassing steatosis, steatohepatitis, fibrosis and cirrhosis (combined n=1,074), we demonstrate a new association, independent of potential confounding factors (age, BMI, type 2 diabetes mellitus and PNPLA3 rs738409 genotype), with advanced hepatic fibrosis/cirrhosis. These findings establish new and important clinical relevance to TM6SF2 in NAFLD.

Impact of common risk factors of fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C.

OBJECTIVE The natural course of chronic hepatitis C varies widely. To improve the profiling of patients at risk of developing advanced liver disease, we assessed the relative contribution of factors for liver fibrosis progression in hepatitis C. DESIGN We analysed 1461 patients with chronic hepatitis C with an estimated date of infection and at least one liver biopsy. Risk factors for accelerated fibrosis progression rate (FPR), defined as ≥0.13 Metavir fibrosis units per year, were identified by logistic regression. Examined factors included age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, body mass index (BMI), significant alcohol drinking (≥20 g/day for ≥5 years), HIV coinfection and diabetes. In a subgroup of 575 patients, we assessed the impact of single nucleotide polymorphisms previously associated with fibrosis progression in genome-wide association studies. Results were expressed as attributable fraction (AF) of risk for accelerated FPR. RESULTS Age at infection (AF 28.7%), sex (AF 8.2%), route of infection (AF 16.5%) and HCV genotype (AF 7.9%) contributed to accelerated FPR in the Swiss Hepatitis C Cohort Study, whereas significant alcohol drinking, anti-HIV, diabetes and BMI did not. In genotyped patients, variants at rs9380516 (TULP1), rs738409 (PNPLA3), rs4374383 (MERTK) (AF 19.2%) and rs910049 (major histocompatibility complex region) significantly added to the risk of accelerated FPR. Results were replicated in three additional independent cohorts, and a meta-analysis confirmed the role of age at infection, sex, route of infection, HCV genotype, rs738409, rs4374383 and rs910049 in accelerating FPR. CONCLUSIONS Most factors accelerating liver fibrosis progression in chronic hepatitis C are unmodifiable.

Xpd/Ercc2 regulates CAK activity and mitotic progression

General transcription factor IIH (TFIIH) consists of nine sub- units: cyclin-dependent kinase 7 (Cdk7), cyclin H and MAT1 (forming the Cdk-activating-kinase or CAK complex), the two helicases Xpb/Hay and Xpd, and p34, p44, p52 and p62 (refs 1–3). As the kinase subunit of TFIIH, Cdk7 participates in basal transcription by phosphorylating the carboxy-terminal domain of the largest subunit of RNA polymerase II1,4,5. As part of CAK, Cdk7 also phosphorylates other Cdks, an essential step for their activation6–9. Here we show that the Drosophila TFIIH com- ponent Xpd negatively regulates the cell cycle function of Cdk7, the CAK activity. Excess Xpd titrates CAK activity, resulting in decreased Cdk T-loop phosphorylation, mitotic defects and lethality, whereas a decrease in Xpd results in increased CAK activity and cell proliferation. Moreover, Xpd is downregulated at the beginning of mitosis when Cdk1, a cell cycle target of Cdk7, is most active. Downregulation of Xpd thus seems to contribute to the upregulation of mitotic CAK activity and to regulate mitotic progression positively. Simultaneously, the downregulation of Xpd might be a major mechanism of mitotic silencing of basal transcription.

The association between in-stent neoatherosclerosis and native coronary artery disease progression: a long-term angiographic and optical coherence tomography cohort study.

AIMS The purpose of the present study was to investigate the relationship between in-stent neoatherosclerosis (NA) and native atherosclerosis progression of untreated coronary segments. METHODS AND RESULTS In-stent NA was assessed by optical coherence tomography (OCT) among patients included in the SIRTAX-LATE OCT study 5 years after drug-eluting stent (DES) (sirolimus-eluting and paclitaxel-eluting stents) implantation. Neoatherosclerosis was defined as the presence of fibroatheroma or fibrocalcific plaque within the neointima of stented segments with a longitudinal extension >1.0 mm. Atherosclerosis progression in untreated native coronary segments was evaluated by serial quantitative coronary angiography (QCA). The change in minimal lumen diameter (MLD) was serially assessed within matched segments at baseline and 5-year angiographic follow-up. The key clinical endpoint was non-target lesion (non-TL) revascularization throughout 5 years. A total of 88 patients with 88 lesions were available for OCT analysis 5 years after DES implantation. In-stent NA was observed in 16% of lesions with the majority of plaques being fibroatheromas (11.4%) followed by fibrocalcific plaques (5.7%). A total of 704 non-TL segments were serially evaluated by QCA. Between baseline and 5-year follow-up, the reduction in MLD was significantly more pronounced in patients with NA (-0.25 mm, 95% CI -0.36 to -0.17 mm) when compared with patients without NA (-0.13 mm, 95% CI -0.17 to -0.10 mm, P = 0.002). Similarly, non-TL revascularization was more frequent in patients with NA (78.6%) when compared with patients without NA (44.6%, P = 0.028) throughout 5 years. CONCLUSIONS In-stent NA is more common among patients with angiographic and clinical evidence of native atherosclerosis progression suggesting similar pathophysiological mechanisms.SIRTAX trial is registered at http://www.clinicaltrials.gov/ct2/show/NCT00617084.

Autophagy in malignant transformation and cancer progression.

Autophagy plays a key role in the maintenance of cellular homeostasis. In healthy cells, such a homeostatic activity constitutes a robust barrier against malignant transformation. Accordingly, many oncoproteins inhibit, and several oncosuppressor proteins promote, autophagy. Moreover, autophagy is required for optimal anticancer immunosurveillance. In neoplastic cells, however, autophagic responses constitute a means to cope with intracellular and environmental stress, thus favoring tumor progression. This implies that at least in some cases, oncogenesis proceeds along with a temporary inhibition of autophagy or a gain of molecular functions that antagonize its oncosuppressive activity. Here, we discuss the differential impact of autophagy on distinct phases of tumorigenesis and the implications of this concept for the use of autophagy modulators in cancer therapy.

Progression of Liver Fibrosis in HIV/HCV Co-Infection: A Comparison between Non-Invasive Assessment Methods and Liver Biopsy.

OBJECTIVES To evaluate the diagnostic performance of seven non-invasive tests (NITs) of liver fibrosis and to assess fibrosis progression over time in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. METHODS Transient elastography (TE) and six blood tests were compared to histopathological fibrosis stage (METAVIR). Participants were followed over three years with NITs at yearly intervals. RESULTS Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) for significant fibrosis (> = F2) in 105 participants was highest for TE (0.85), followed by FIB-4 (0.77), ELF-Test (0.77), APRI (0.76), Fibrotest (0.75), hyaluronic acid (0.70), and Hepascore (0.68). AUROC for cirrhosis (F4) was 0.97 for TE followed by FIB-4 (0.91), APRI (0.89), Fibrotest (0.84), Hepascore (0.82), ELF-Test (0.82), and hyaluronic acid (0.79). A three year follow-up was completed by 87 participants, all on antiretroviral therapy and in 20 patients who completed HCV treatment (9 with sustained virologic response). TE, APRI and Fibrotest did not significantly change during follow-up. There was weak evidence for an increase of FIB-4 (mean increase: 0.22, p = 0.07). 42 participants had a second liver biopsy: Among 38 participants with F0-F3 at baseline, 10 were progessors (1-stage increase in fibrosis, 8 participants; 2-stage, 1; 3-stage, 1). Among progressors, mean increase in TE was 3.35 kPa, in APRI 0.36, and in FIB-4 0.75. Fibrotest results did not change over 3 years. CONCLUSION TE was the best NIT for liver fibrosis staging in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. APRI-Score, FIB-4 Index, Fibrotest, and ELF-Test were less reliable. Routinely available APRI and FIB-4 performed as good as more expensive tests. NITs did not change significantly during a follow-up of three years, suggesting slow liver disease progression in a majority of HIV/HCV co-infected persons on antiretroviral therapy.

Androgen receptor status is highly conserved during tumor progression of breast cancer

BACKGROUND With the advent of new and more efficient anti-androgen drugs targeting androgen receptor (AR) in breast cancer (BC) is becoming an increasingly important area of investigation. This would potentially be most useful in triple negative BC (TNBC), where better therapies are still needed. The assessment of AR status is generally performed on the primary tumor even if the tumor has already metastasized. Very little is known regarding discrepancies of AR status during tumor progression. To determine the prevalence of AR positivity, with emphasis on TNBCs, and to investigate AR status during tumor progression, we evaluated a large series of primary BCs and matching metastases and recurrences. METHODS AR status was performed on 356 primary BCs, 135 matching metastases, and 12 recurrences using a next-generation Tissue Microarray (ngTMA). A commercially available AR antibody was used to determine AR-status by immunohistochemistry. AR positivity was defined as any nuclear staining in tumor cells ≥1 %. AR expression was correlated with pathological tumor features of the primary tumor. Additionally, the concordance rate of AR expression between the different tumor sites was determined. RESULTS AR status was positive in: 87 % (307/353) of primary tumors, 86.1 % (105/122) of metastases, and in 66.7 % (8/12) of recurrences. TNBC tested positive in 11.4 %, (4/35) of BCs. A discrepant result was seen in 4.3 % (5/117) of primary BC and matching lymph node (LN) metastases. Three AR negative primary BCs were positive in the matching LN metastasis, representing 17.6 % of all negative BCs with lymph node metastases (3/17). Two AR positive primary BCs were negative in the matching LN metastasis, representing 2.0 % of all AR positive BCs with LN metastases (2/100). No discrepancies were seen between primary BC and distant metastases or recurrence (n = 17). CONCLUSIONS Most primary (87 %) and metastasized (86.1 %) BCs are AR positive including a significant fraction of TNBCs (11.4 %). Further, AR status is highly conserved during tumor progression and a change only occurs in a small fraction (4.1 %). Our study supports the notion that targeting AR could be effective for many BC patients and that re-testing of AR status in formerly negative or mixed type BC's is recommended.

Eighty percent of patients with surgical hip dislocation for femoroacetabular impingement have a good clinical result without osteoarthritis progression at 10 years

BACKGROUND We previously reported the 5-year followup of hips with femoroacetabular impingement (FAI) that underwent surgical hip dislocation with trimming of the head-neck junction and/or acetabulum including reattachment of the labrum. The goal of this study was to report a concise followup of these patients at a minimum 10 years. QUESTIONS/PURPOSES We asked if these patients had (1) improved hip pain and function; we then determined (2) the 10-year survival rate and (3) calculated factors predicting failure. METHODS Between July 2001 and March 2003, we performed surgical hip dislocation and femoral neck osteoplasty and/or acetabular rim trimming with labral reattachment in 75 patients (97 hips). Of those, 72 patients (93 hips [96%]) were available for followup at a minimum of 10 years (mean, 11 years; range, 10-13 years). We used the anterior impingement test to assess pain and the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score to assess function. Survivorship calculation was performed using the method of Kaplan and Meier and any of the following factors as a definition of failure: conversion to total hip arthroplasty (THA), radiographic evidence of worsening osteoarthritis (OA), or a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score less than 15. Predictive factors for any of these failures were calculated using the Cox regression analysis. RESULTS At 10-year followup, the prevalence of a positive impingement test decreased from preoperative 95% to 38% (p < 0.001) and the Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score increased from preoperative 15.3 ± 1.4 (range, 9-17) to 16.9 ± 1.3 (12-18; p < 0.001). Survivorship of these procedures for any of the defined failures was 80% (95% confidence interval, 72%-88%). The strongest predictors of failure were age > 40 years (hazard ratio with 95% confidence interval, 5.9 [4.8-7.1], p = 0.002), body mass index > 30 kg/m(2) (5.5 [3.9-7.2], p = 0.041), a lateral center-edge angle < 22° or > 32° (5.4 [4.2-6.6], p = 0.006), and a posterior acetabular coverage < 34% (4.8 [3.7-5.6], p = 0.006). CONCLUSIONS At 10-year followup, 80% of patients with FAI treated with surgical hip dislocation, osteoplasty, and labral reattachment had not progressed to THA, developed worsening OA, or had a Merle d'Aubigné-Postel score of less than 15. Radiographic predictors for failure were related to over- and undertreatment of acetabular rim trimming.

Systematic analysis of factors associated with progression and regression of ulcerative colitis in 918 patients.

BACKGROUND Studies that systematically assess change in ulcerative colitis (UC) extent over time in adult patients are scarce. AIM To assess changes in disease extent over time and to evaluate clinical parameters associated with this change. METHODS Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analysed. We used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with a change in disease extent. RESULTS A total of 918 UC patients (45.3% females) were included. At diagnosis, UC patients presented with the following disease extent: proctitis [199 patients (21.7%)], left-sided colitis [338 patients (36.8%)] and extensive colitis/pancolitis [381 (41.5%)]. During a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, progression and regression was documented in 145 patients (15.8%) and 149 patients (16.2%) respectively. In addition, 624 patients (68.0%) had a stable disease extent. The following factors were identified to be associated with disease progression: treatment with systemic glucocorticoids [odds ratio (OR) 1.704, P = 0.025] and calcineurin inhibitors (OR: 2.716, P = 0.005). No specific factors were found to be associated with disease regression. CONCLUSIONS Over a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, about two-thirds of UC patients maintained the initial disease extent; the remaining one-third had experienced either progression or regression of the disease extent.

Progression of cardiovascular risk factors in black Africans: 3 year follow up of the SABPA cohort study

Recent work identified a high prevalence of modifiable risk factors for cardiovascular disease (CVD) among urban black South Africans. The aim was to track the progression of CVD risk factors in a multi-ethnic sample of South Africans. Participants were 173 black (aged 47.5 ± 7.8 yrs) and 186 white teachers (aged 49.6 ± 9.9 yrs) that were examined at baseline and 3 years follow-up. Blacks demonstrated a substantially higher prevalence of composite CVD burden (defined as history of physician diagnosed heart disease, use of anti-hypertensives, anti-diabetic, or statin medications at either time point) compared to whites (49.1 vs. 32.0%, p = 0.012) respectively. After controlling for baseline, the black participants demonstrated greater increases in 24 h systolic and diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol, fasting glucose, fibrinogen, D-dimer, and waist circumference in comparison with whites. In summary, an adverse progression of CVD risk factors was observed in the whole sample, although to a larger degree in black participants. Aggressive treatment strategies for controlling risk factors in black Africans are needed to reduce the increasing burden of CVD in South Africa.

Effectiveness of Fluorescence-based Methods in Monitoring Progression of Noncavitated Caries-like Lesions on Smooth Surfaces

Although there has been a significant decrease in caries prevalence in developed countries, the slower progression of dental caries requires methods capable of detecting and quantifying lesions at an early stage. The aim of this study was to evaluate the effectiveness of fluorescence-based methods (DIAGNOdent 2095 laser fluorescence device [LF], DIAGNOdent 2190 pen [LFpen], and VistaProof fluorescence camera [FC]) in monitoring the progression of noncavitated caries-like lesions on smooth surfaces. Caries-like lesions were developed in 60 blocks of bovine enamel using a bacterial model of Streptococcus mutans and Lactobacillus acidophilus . Enamel blocks were evaluated by two independent examiners at baseline (phase I), after the first cariogenic challenge (eight days) (phase II), and after the second cariogenic challenge (a further eight days) (phase III) by two independent examiners using the LF, LFpen, and FC. Blocks were submitted to surface microhardness (SMH) and cross-sectional microhardness analyses. The intraclass correlation coefficient for intra- and interexaminer reproducibility ranged from 0.49 (FC) to 0.94 (LF/LFpen). SMH values decreased and fluorescence values increased significantly among the three phases. Higher values for sensitivity, specificity, and area under the receiver operating characteristic curve were observed for FC (phase II) and LFpen (phase III). A significant correlation was found between fluorescence values and SMH in all phases and integrated loss of surface hardness (ΔKHN) in phase III. In conclusion, fluorescence-based methods were effective in monitoring noncavitated caries-like lesions on smooth surfaces, with moderate correlation with SMH, allowing differentiation between sound and demineralized enamel.

Associations Between Cardiovascular Risk Factors, Inflammation, and Progression of Carotid Atherosclerosis Among Smokers

INTRODUCTION The high risk of cardiovascular events in smokers requires adequate control of other cardiovascular risk factors (CVRFs) to curtail atherosclerosis progression. However, it is unclear which CVRFs have the most influence on atherosclerosis progression in smokers. METHODS In 260 smokers aged 40-70 included in a smoking cessation trial, we analyzed the association between traditional CVRFs, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein (hs-CRP), smoking cessation and 3-year progression of carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT, assessed by repeated ultrasound measurements) in a longitudinal multivariate model. RESULTS Participants (mean age 52 years, 47% women) had a mean smoking duration of 32 years with a median daily consumption of 20 cigarettes. Baseline CIMT was 1185 μm (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1082-1287) and increased by 93 μm (95% CI: 25-161) and 108 μm (95% CI: 33-183) after 1 and 3 years, respectively. Age, male sex, daily cigarette consumption, systolic blood pressure (SBP), but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, were independently associated with baseline CIMT (all P ≤ .05). Baseline SBP, but neither low-density lipoprotein cholesterol nor hs-CRP, was associated with 3-year atherosclerosis progression (P = .01 at 3 years). The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. We found an increase of 26 μm per each 10-mmHg raise in SBP at 1 year and an increase of 39 μm per each 10 mmHg raise in SBP at 3 years. Due to insufficient statistical power, we could not exclude an effect of smoking abstinence on CIMT progression. CONCLUSION Control of blood pressure may be an important factor to limit atherosclerosis progression in smokers, besides support for smoking cessation. IMPLICATIONS Among 260 smokers aged 40-70 years with a mean smoking duration of 32 years, baseline SBP was associated with atherosclerosis progression over 3 years, as measured by CIMT (P = .01 at 3 years), independently of smoking variables and other CVRFs. The higher the SBP at baseline, the steeper was the CIMT increase over 3-year follow-up. Our findings emphasize the importance of focusing not only on smoking cessation among smokers, but to simultaneously control other CVRFs, particularly blood pressure, in order to prevent future cardiovascular disease.

Tumor-induced inflammation alters neutrophil phenotype and disease progression

Neutrophils are essential to combat infectious agents but contribute to collateral inflammatory damage. Likewise, neutrophils can kill cancer cells and have been shown to promote malignant growth and metastasis through immunosuppressive functions. Two articles in a recent issue of Nature reveal new mechanisms by which tumors induce changes in neutrophil phenotype through production of inflammatory cytokines. Although the two studies report different outcomes on the effects of neutrophils on tumor growth and metastasis, they delineate novel molecular pathways influencing neutrophil phenotype that may provide new approaches to harnessing neutrophil functions in the treatment of cancer.