887 resultados para probability of occurrence


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Introduction Hepatitis C virus (HCV) is primarily transmitted via contact with the blood of infected patients, although the form of contact has not been identified for a significant percentage of carriers. The present study evaluated possible risk factors for HCV transmission in a medium-sized town located in the northwest region of the State of São Paulo. Methods This was a case-control study, with the case group consisting of 190 chronic HCV carriers older than 18 years residing in the municipality of Catanduva. The control group also consisted of 190 individuals with HCV-negative serology. The groups were paired (1:1) for gender, age range (± five years), and place of residence. The same structured questionnaire was applied to all subjects, who gave written informed consent to participate in the study. The data were statistically analyzed using crude and adjusted logistic regression, and the results were expressed as odds ratios with a 95% confidence interval. Results The demographic profiles of the groups indicated a predominance of males (68.9%) and mean ages of 47.1 years (case group) and 47.3 years (control group). After adjusting for conditional regression, the following factors were found to represent risks for HCV: history of sexually transmitted disease (STD) and blood transfusion; accidents with syringes and/or needles; tattoos; and the use of non-injectable drugs and injectable medications. Conclusions The transmission of HCV via the blood route has been well characterized. Other forms of contact with human blood and/or secretions are likely to transmit the virus, although with a lower frequency of occurrence.

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Introduction The use of entomopathogenic fungi to control disease vectors has become relevant because traditional chemical control methods have caused damage to the environment and led to the development of resistance among vectors. Thus, this study assessed the pathogenicity of entomopathogenic fungi in Triatoma dimidiata. Methods Preparations of 108 conidia/ml of Gliocladium virens, Talaromyces flavus, Beauveria bassiana and Metarhizium anisopliae were applied topically on T. dimidiata nymphs and adults. Controls were treated with the 0.0001% Tween-80 vehicle. Mortality was evaluated and recorded daily for 30 days. The concentration required to kill 50% of T. dimidiata (LC50) was then calculated for the most pathogenic isolate. Results Pathogenicity in adults was similar among B. bassiana, G. virens and T. flavus (p>0.05) and differed from that in triatomine nymphs (p=0.009). The most entomopathogenic strains in adult triatomines were B. bassiana and G. virens, which both caused 100% mortality. In nymphs, the most entomopathogenic strain was B. bassiana, followed by G. virens. The native strain with the highest pathogenicity was G. virens, for which the LC50 for T. dimidiata nymphs was 1.98 x108 conidia/ml at 13 days after inoculation. Conclusions Beauveria bassiana and G. virens showed entomopathogenic potential in T. dimidiata nymphs and adults. However, the native G. virens strain presents a higher probability of success in the field, and G. virens should thus be considered a potential candidate for the biological control of triatomine Chagas disease vectors.

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We study the determinants of MRI use across Portuguese NHS hospitals for patients belonging to specific DRGs. Using data on individual hospital admissions, we estimate a probit model including individual-, hospital-, time- and region-specific variables in order to explain the probability of a patient being sent for MRI. Results convey a tightening effect on the hospital’s budget constraint in the end of each year. Hospitals seem to account for regional characteristics when defining adoption patterns. Individual-specific variables are good predictors of MRI use. Measures taken by the Government only impact the short run. Finally, the gains from an MRI scan, as far as the probability of death is concerned, occur mainly for less severe patients.

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INTRODUCTION: Chlamydia infection is associated with debilitating human diseases including trachoma, pneumonia, coronary heart disease and urogenital diseases. Serotypes of C. trachomatis show a fair correlation with the group of diseases they cause, and their distribution follows a well-described geographic pattern. Serotype A, a trachoma-associated strain, is known for its limited dissemination in the Middle East and Northern Africa. However, knowledge on the spread of bacteria from the genus Chlamydia as well as the distribution of serotypes in Brazil is quite limited. METHODS: Blood samples of 1,710 individuals from ten human population groups in the Amazon region of Brazil were examined for antibodies to Chlamydia using indirect immunofluorescence and microimmunofluorescence assays. RESULTS: The prevalence of antibodies to Chlamydia ranged from 23.9% (Wayana-Apalai) to 90.7% (Awa-Guaja) with a mean prevalence of 50.2%. Seroreactivity was detected to C. pneumoniae and to all serotypes of C. trachomatis tested; furthermore, we report clear evidence of the as-yet-undescribed occurrence of serotype A of C. trachomatis. CONCLUSIONS: Specific seroreactivity not only accounts for the large extent of dissemination of C. trachomatis in the Amazon region of Brazil but also shows an expanded area of occurrence of serotype A outside the epidemiological settings previously described. Furthermore, these data suggest possible routes of Chlamydia introduction into the Amazon region from the massive human migration that occurred during the 1,700s.

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Abstract Zika virus, already widely distributed in Africa and Asia, was recently reported in two Northeastern Brazilian: State of Bahia and State of Rio Grande do Norte, and one Southeastern: State of São Paulo. This finding adds a potentially noxious virus to a list of several other viruses that are widely transmitted by Aedes (Stegomyia) aegypti and Aedes (Stegomyia) albopictus in Brazil. The pathology and epidemiology, including the distribution and vectors associated with Zika virus, are reviewed. This review is focused on viruses transmitted by Aedes (Stegomyia) mosquitoes, including dengue, Chikungunya, Zika, Mayaro, and yellow fever virus, to emphasize the risks of occurrence for these arboviruses in Brazil and neighboring countries. Other species of Aedes (Stegomyia) are discussed, emphasizing their involvement in arbovirus transmission and the possibility of adaptation to environments modified by human activities and introduction in Brazil.

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Abstract: INTRODUCTION: Hantavirus diseases are emerging human diseases caused by Hantavirus spp. of the Bunnyaviridae family. Hantavirus pulmonary syndrome (HPS) has been detected in the Federal District (DF) of Brazil since 2004. Among the 27 Brazilian Federal Units, DF has the highest fatality rate. More than 10 years have already passed since then, with confirmation of cases caused by the Araraquara and Paranoa species. The reservoir is Necromys lasiurus. METHODS: Local surveillance data of the confirmed cases were analyzed, including age, sex, month and year of occurrence, clinical symptoms, syndromes and outcomes, and probable transmission place (PTP). The cases were mainly confirmed by IgM detection with a capture enzyme immunoassay. The cases were classified as autochthonous if PTPs were in the DF area. RESULTS: From 2004 to 2013, in the DF, 126 cases of hantavirus were confirmed, and the cumulative incidence was 5.0 per 100,000 inhabitants. The occurrence of cases was predominantly from April to August. At least 75% of the cases were autochthonous. Acute respiratory failure was reported in 47.5% of cases, and the fatality rate was 40%. CONCLUSIONS: In the DF, the cumulative incidence of HPS was one of the highest worldwide. A seasonal pattern of hantavirus disease in the dry season is clear. There was a high frequency of severe clinical signals and symptoms as well as a high fatality rate. For the near future, visitors and inhabitants of DF rural areas, particularly male adults, should receive continuous education about hantavirus transmission and prevention.

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OBJECTIVE: To assess knee flexor-extensor muscular strength in elderly women with no previous history of musculoskeletal disorders on the lower limbs using an isokinetic dynamometer, in order to obtain data that could be used as a comparative parameter in the evaluation of elderly women with knee disorders, thus facilitating a better rehabilitation of these patients. METHODS: Twenty-six volunteers aged 75 to 83 years were studied using a Cybex® 6000 isokinetic dynamometer. The chosen angular velocity was 60 º/s, and concentric exercise was used for either flexion or extension. The studied parameters were: peak torque, angle of peak torque, and flexor-extensor torque rate. RESULTS: There were no differences between dominant (D) and nondominant (ND) knee peak torque values. This was true for both flexor (D = 42.46 ± 9.09 Nm / ND = 40.65 ± 9.38 Nm) and extensor (D = 76.92 ± 13.97 Nm / ND = 77.65 ± 15.21 Nm) movements. The descriptive statistical analysis of the values obtained for the flexor-extensor peak torque rate and for the angle of occurrence of peak torque was the same for the dominant and nondominant sides. CONCLUSIONS: The values of peak torque for the contralateral side can be used as a reference during rehabilitation of elderly women with acute disease of the knee, and the angular velocity of 60 º/s is proper and safe for isokinetic assessment of elderly people.

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What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

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Flow of new information is what produces price changes, understanding if the market is unbalanced is fundamental to know how much inventory market makers should keep during an important economic release. After identifying which economic indicators impact the S&P and 10 year Treasuries. The Volume Synchronized Probability of Information-Based Trading (VPIN) will be used as a predictability measure. The results point to some predictability power over economic surprises of the VPIN metric, mainly when calculated using the S&P. This finding appears to be supported when analysing depth imbalance before economic releases. Inferior results were achieved when using treasuries. The final aim of this study is to fill the gap between microstructural changes and macroeconomic events.

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PURPOSE: Infection is the leading complication of long-term central venous catheters, and its incidence may vary according to catheter type. The objective of this study was to compare the frequency and probability of infection between two types of long-term intravenous devices. METHODS: Retrospective study in 96 onco-hematology patients with partially implanted catheters (n = 55) or completely implanted ones (n = 42). Demographic data and catheter care were similar in both groups. Infection incidence and infection-free survival were used for the comparison of the two devices. RESULTS: In a median follow-up time of 210 days, the catheter-related infection incidence was 0.2102/100 catheter-days for the partially implanted devices and 0.0045/100 catheter-days for the completely implanted devices; the infection incidence rate was 46.7 (CI 95% = 6.2 to 348.8). The 1-year first infection-free survival ratio was 45% versus 97%, and the 1-year removal due to infection-free survival ratio was 42% versus 97% for partially and totally implanted catheters, respectively (P <.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSION: In the present study, the infection risk was lower in completely implanted devices than in partially implanted ones.

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What role do social networks play in determining migrant labor market outcomes? We examine this question using data from a random sample of 1500 immigrants living in Ireland. We propose a theoretical model formally predicting that immigrants with more contacts have additional access to job offers, and are therefore better able to become employed and choose higher paid jobs. Our empirical analysis confirms these findings, while focusing more generally on the relationship between migrants’ social networks and a variety of labor market outcomes (namely wages, employment, occupational choice and job security), contrary to the literature. We find evidence that having one more contact in the network is associated with an increase of 11pp in the probability of being employed and with an increase of about 100 euros in the average salary. However, our data is not suggestive of a network size effect on occupational choice and job security. Our findings are robust to sample selection and other endogeneity concerns.

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Seed dispersal of Hymenaea courbaril was studied by following the fate of 585 seeds embedded with small magnets and set in displays in and near a logged strip in rain forest in the Peruvian Amazonian. Mammals took fruits from all displays, which were located in the forest, edge, and cleared strip. Overall removal rates were low - a median of 8.1 fruits / month from displays maintained with 8-10 fruits - but were higher in August than in earlier months. Most fruits were dropped near the display or had their seeds eaten, but > 13% were successfully dispersed. Most of the dispersed seeds were buried, which increases probability of germination. Maximum dispersal distance of live seeds was 12.1 m (median 3.1 m), but other magnets were transported up to 34 m, indicating seeds were dispersed further, but then eaten. Acouchies (most likely Myoprocta pratti) and agoutis (Dasyprocta fuliginosa) were apparently the main dispersal agents. Dispersal of seeds from the forest into the logged strip was rare, suggesting that although rodents disperse H. courbaril, they cannot be relied on for the reseeding this and similar species in recent clearings.

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The occurrence of Barotrauma is identified as a major concern for health professionals, since it can be fatal for patients. In order to support the decision process and to predict the risk of occurring barotrauma Data Mining models were induced. Based on this principle, the present study addresses the Data Mining process aiming to provide hourly probability of a patient has Barotrauma. The process of discovering implicit knowledge in data collected from Intensive Care Units patientswas achieved through the standard process Cross Industry Standard Process for Data Mining. With the goal of making predictions according to the classification approach they several DM techniques were selected: Decision Trees, Naive Bayes and Support Vector Machine. The study was focused on identifying the validity and viability to predict a composite variable. To predict the Barotrauma two classes were created: “risk” and “no risk”. Such target come from combining two variables: Plateau Pressure and PCO2. The best models presented a sensitivity between 96.19% and 100%. In terms of accuracy the values varied between 87.5% and 100%. This study and the achieved results demonstrated the feasibility of predicting the risk of a patient having Barotrauma by presenting the probability associated.

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Rockburst is characterized by a violent explosion of a block causing a sudden rupture in the rock and is quite common in deep tunnels. It is critical to understand the phenomenon of rockburst, focusing on the patterns of occurrence so these events can be avoided and/or managed saving costs and possibly lives. The failure mechanism of rockburst needs to be better understood. Laboratory experiments are undergoing at the Laboratory for Geomechanics and Deep Underground Engineering (SKLGDUE) of Beijing and the system is described. A large number of rockburst tests were performed and their information collected, stored in a database and analyzed. Data Mining (DM) techniques were applied to the database in order to develop predictive models for the rockburst maximum stress (σRB) and rockburst risk index (IRB) that need the results of such tests to be determined. With the developed models it is possible to predict these parameters with high accuracy levels using data from the rock mass and specific project.

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Duplicates are common in germplasm banks and their identification is needed to facilitate germplasm bank management and to reduce maintenance costs. The aim of this work was to identify duplicates of cassava from a germplasm bank in Eastern Amazon, which had been previously characterized both morphological and agronomically. In order to be genotyped with 15 microsatellite loci, 36 accessions were selected. These accessions were classified into 13 groups of similar morpho-agronomical characteristics. All loci were polymorphic, and 75 alleles were identified, with an average of five alleles per loci and H E = 0.66. There were determined 34 pairs of genotypes with identical multiloci profiles and the probability of genetic identity was 1.1x10-12 with probability of exclusion of 99.9999%. Among these duplicates, there are accessions sampled on different years and places, but with different names and accessions with the same name sampled in different places and years. The study identified genotypes that are grown in different places and that have been maintained over the years by local farmers.