Water scarcity and climate change impact and vulnerability in irrigated agriculture in Mediterranean river basins

Actualmente, la escasez de agua constituye un importante problema en muchos lugares del mundo. El crecimiento de la población, la creciente necesidad de alimentos, el desarrollo socio-económico y el cambio climático ejercen una importante y cada vez mayor presión sobre los recursos hídricos, a la que muchos países van a tener que enfrentarse en los próximos anos. La región Mediterránea es una de las regiones del mundo de mayor escasez de recursos hídricos, y es además una de las zonas más vulnerables al cambio climático. La mayoría de estudios sobre cambio climático prevén mayores temperaturas y una disminución de las precipitaciones, y una creciente escasez de agua debida a la disminución de recursos disponibles y al aumento de las demandas de riego. En el contexto actual de desarrollo de políticas se demanda cada vez más una mayor consideración del cambio climático en el marco de las políticas sectoriales. Sin embargo, los estudios enfocados a un solo sector no reflejan las múltiples dimensiones del los efectos del cambio climático. Numerosos estudios científicos han demostrado que el cambio climático es un fenómeno de naturaleza multi-dimensional y cuyos efectos se transmiten a múltiples escalas. Por tanto, es necesaria la producción de estudios y herramientas de análisis capaces de reflejar todas estas dimensiones y que contribuyan a la elaboración de políticas robustas en un contexto de cambio climático. Esta investigación pretende aportar una visión global de la problemática de la escasez de agua y los impactos, la vulnerabilidad y la adaptación al cambio climático en el contexto de la región mediterránea. La investigación presenta un marco integrado de modelización que se va ampliando progresivamente en un proceso secuencial y multi-escalar en el que en cada etapa se incorpora una nueva dimensión. La investigación consta de cuatro etapas que se abordan a lo largo de cuatro capítulos. En primer lugar, se estudia la vulnerabilidad económica de las explotaciones de regadío del Medio Guadiana, en España. Para ello, se utiliza un modelo de programación matemática en combinación con un modelo econométrico. A continuación, en la segunda etapa, se utiliza un modelo hidro-económico que incluye un modelo de cultivo para analizar los procesos que tienen lugar a escala de cultivo, explotación y cuenca teniendo en cuenta distintas escalas geográficas y de toma de decisiones. Esta herramienta permite el análisis de escenarios de cambio climático y la evaluación de posibles medidas de adaptación. La tercera fase consiste en el análisis de las barreras que dificultan la aplicación de procesos de adaptación para lo cual se analizan las redes socio-institucionales en la cuenca. Finalmente, la cuarta etapa aporta una visión sobre la escasez de agua y el cambio climático a escala nacional y regional mediante el estudio de distintos escenarios de futuro plausibles y los posibles efectos de las políticas en la escasez de agua. Para este análisis se utiliza un modelo econométrico de datos de panel para la región mediterránea y un modelo hidro-económico que se aplica a los casos de estudio de España y Jordania. Los resultados del estudio ponen de relieve la importancia de considerar múltiples escalas y múltiples dimensiones en el estudio de la gestión de los recursos hídricos y la adaptación al cambio climático en los contextos mediterráneos de escasez de agua estudiados. Los resultados muestran que los impactos del cambio climático en la cuenca del Guadiana y en el conjunto de España pueden comprometer la sostenibilidad del regadío y de los ecosistemas. El análisis a escala de cuenca hidrográfica resalta la importancia de las interacciones entre los distintos usuarios del agua y en concreto entre distintas comunidades de regantes, así como la necesidad de fortalecer el papel de las instituciones y de fomentar la creación de una visión común en la cuenca para facilitar la aplicación de los procesos de adaptación. Asimismo, los resultados de este trabajo evidencian también la capacidad y el papel fundamental de las políticas para lograr un desarrollo sostenible y la adaptación al cambio climático es regiones de escasez de agua tales como la región mediterránea. Especialmente, este trabajo pone de manifiesto el potencial de la Directiva Marco del Agua de la Unión Europea para lograr una efectiva adaptación al cambio climático. Sin embargo, en Jordania, además de la adaptación al cambio climático, es preciso diseñar estrategias de desarrollo sostenible más ambiciosas que contribuyan a reducir el riesgo futuro de escasez de agua. ABSTRACT Water scarcity is becoming a major concern in many parts of the world. Population growth, increasing needs for food production, socio-economic development and climate change represent pressures on water resources that many countries around the world will have to deal in the coming years. The Mediterranean region is one of the most water scarce regions of the world and is considered a climate change hotspot. Most projections of climate change envisage an increase in temperatures and a decrease in precipitation and a resulting reduction in water resources availability as a consequence of both reduced water availability and increased irrigation demands. Current policy development processes require the integration of climate change concerns into sectoral policies. However, sector-oriented studies often fail to address all the dimensions of climate change implications. Climate change research in the last years has evidenced the need for more integrated studies and methodologies that are capable of addressing the multi-scale and multi-dimensional nature of climate change. This research attempts to provide a comprehensive view of water scarcity and climate change impacts, vulnerability and adaptation in Mediterranean contexts. It presents an integrated modelling framework that is progressively enlarged in a sequential multi-scale process in which a new dimension of climate change and water resources is addressed at every stage. It is comprised of four stages, each one explained in a different chapter. The first stage explores farm-level economic vulnerability in the Spanish Guadiana basin using a mathematical programming model in combination with an econometric model. Then, in a second stage, the use of a hydro-economic modelling framework that includes a crop growth model allows for the analysis of crop, farm and basin level processes taking into account different geographical and decision-making scales. This integrated tool is used for the analysis of climate change scenarios and for the assessment of potential adaptation options. The third stage includes the analysis of barriers to the effective implementation of adaptation processes based on socioinstitutional network analysis. Finally, a regional and country level perspective of water scarcity and climate change is provided focusing on different possible socio-economic development pathways and the effect of policies on future water scarcity. For this analysis, a panel-data econometric model and a hydro-economic model are applied for the analysis of the Mediterranean region and country level case studies in Spain and Jordan. The overall results of the study demonstrate the value of considering multiple scales and multiple dimensions in water management and climate change adaptation in the Mediterranean water scarce contexts analysed. Results show that climate change impacts in the Guadiana basin and in Spain may compromise the sustainability of irrigation systems and ecosystems. The analysis at the basin level highlights the prominent role of interactions between different water users and irrigation districts and the need to strengthen institutional capacity and common understanding in the basin to enhance the implementation of adaptation processes. The results of this research also illustrate the relevance of water policies in achieving sustainable development and climate change adaptation in water scarce areas such as the Mediterranean region. Specifically, the EU Water Framework Directive emerges as a powerful trigger for climate change adaptation. However, in Jordan, outreaching sustainable development strategies are required in addition to climate change adaptation to reduce future risk of water scarcity.

Analyzing climate change adaptation in the agriculture and water sectors: screening risks and opportunities.

As part of the Mediterranean area, the Guadiana basin in Spain is particularly exposed to increasing water stress due to climate change. Future warmer and drier climate will have negative implications for the sustainability of water resources and irrigation agriculture, the main socio- economic sector in the region. This paper illustrates a systematic analysis of climate change impacts and adaptation in the Guadiana basin based on a two-stage modeling approach. First, an integrated hydro-economic modeling framework was used to simulate the potential effects of regional climate change scenarios for the period 2000-2069. Second, a participatory multi-criteria technique, namely the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), was applied to rank potential adaptation measures based on agreed criteria. Results show that, in the middle-long run and under severe climate change, reduced water availability, lower crop yields and increased irrigation demands might lead to water shortages, crop failure, and up to ten percent of income losses to irrigators. AHP results show how private farming adaptation measures, including improving irrigation efficiency and adjusting crop varieties, are preferred to public adaptation measures, such as building new dams. The integrated quantitative and qualitative methodology used in this research can be considered a socially-based valuable tool to support adaptation decision-making.

Exploring public support for climate change adaptation policies in the Mediterranean region: A case study in Southern Spain.

The understanding of public perception to climate change is an essential factor in the development of adaptation policies. In the Mediterranean, agriculture, as the largest consumer of freshwater, has the highest potential to suffer adverse impacts of climate change. Future water availability predictions, conflicting interests among stakeholders and an increasing social concern about the environment further aggravate the situation. Therefore studying public support for adaptation policies can play a key role in successfully adapting the sector. The study site, approximately 36,000 hectares of rice fields in Seville (Spain), exemplifies an area in the Mediterranean where water needs to be carefully re-allocated in view of the limitations anticipated by climate change scenarios; in particular where conflicts will arise between water for agriculture and water for ‘natural’ ecosystems. This paper proposes an ex-ante evaluation of the societal support for adaptation policies. A survey of 117 respondents was conducted and a Logit model utilized to analyze which predictors positively or negatively affect people's support for adaptation policies. Results suggest that the main barriers to support these policies were economic losses and low climate change concern whereas the primary motivation factor was environmental commitment. Additionally, the main socio-demographic determinants were gender, age, education and family structure. In order to improve societal support for climate change adaptation policies, implementing educational and awareness raising initiatives will be the main challenges for policy makers to overcome.

Economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets: A bio-economic approach with a focus on the EU

Projections for world food production and prices play a crucial role to evaluate and tackle future food security challenges. Understanding how these projections will be affected by climate change is the main objective of this study. By means of a bio-economic approach we assess the economic impacts of climate change on agrifood markets, providing both a global analysis and a regionalised evaluation within the EU. To account for uncertainty, we analyse the IPCC emission scenario A1B for the 2030 horizon under several simulation scenarios that differ in (1) the climate projection, from HadleyCM3 (warm) or ECHAM5 (mild) global circulation models; and (2) the influence of CO2 effects. Results of this study indicate that agrifood market projections to 2030 are very sensitive to climate change uncertainties and, in particular to the magnitude of the carbon fertilization effect.

What role does climate change play in agricultural market uncertainty? An integrated assessment taking into account market-driven adjustments

Recent studies point to climate change being one of the long-term drivers of agricultural market uncertainty. To advance in the understanding of the influence of climate change on future agricultural market developments, we compare a reference scenario for 2030 with alternative simulation scenarios that differ regarding: (1) emission scenarios; (2) climate projections; and (3) the consideration of carbon fertilization effects. For each simulation scenario, the CAPRI model provides global and EU-wide impacts of climate change on agricultural markets. Results show that climate change would considerably affect agrifood markets up to 2030. Nevertheless, market-driven adaptation strategies (production intensification, trade adjustments) would soften the impact of yield shocks on supply and demand. As a result, regional changes in production would be lower than foreseen by other studies focused on supply effects.

Remodeling of Yeast Genome Expression in Response to Environmental Changes

We used genome-wide expression analysis to explore how gene expression in Saccharomyces cerevisiae is remodeled in response to various changes in extracellular environment, including changes in temperature, oxidation, nutrients, pH, and osmolarity. The results demonstrate that more than half of the genome is involved in various responses to environmental change and identify the global set of genes induced and repressed by each condition. These data implicate a substantial number of previously uncharacterized genes in these responses and reveal a signature common to environmental responses that involves ∼10% of yeast genes. The results of expression analysis with MSN2/MSN4 mutants support the model that the Msn2/Msn4 activators induce the common response to environmental change. These results provide a global description of the transcriptional response to environmental change and extend our understanding of the role of activators in effecting this response.

Societal transformation and climate change adaptation : PAR experiences in Portugal

Tese de doutoramento, Alterações Climáticas e Políticas de Desenvolvimento Sustentável (Sociologia), Universidade de Lisboa, Instituto de Ciências Sociais, 2016

Financial risks and opportunities in the time of climate change. Bruegel Policy Brief ISSUE 2016/02 APRIL 2016

Real economic imbalances can lead to financial crisis. The current unsustainable use of our environment is such an imbalance. Financial shocks can be triggered by either intensified environmental policies, cleantech breakthroughs (both resulting in the stranding of unsustainable assets), or the economic costs of crossing ecological boundaries (eg floods and droughts due to climate change). Financial supervisors and risk managers have so far paid little attention to this ecological dimension, allowing systemic financial imbalances resulting from ecological pressures to build up. Inattention also leads to missed economic and financial opportunities from the sustainability transition.

“Proximising” climate change reconsidered: A construal level theory perspective

Reducing the psychological distance of climate change has repeatedly been proposed as one strategy to increase individuals' motivation to respond to climate change. From the perspective of construal level theory, decreasing psychological distance should not itself influence people's willingness to act but change the processes that underlie individual decision-making. We conducted two experiments in which we manipulated the psychological distance of climate change. We found that participants with a distant focus relied more on scepticism to represent risks and make decisions about supporting climate change, whereas participants with a proximal perspective relied more on fear when making such judgements. However, the predicted Fear × Distance interaction was only found when self-reported fear rather than experimentally manipulated fear was used as a moderator. Our results suggest that simply proximising won't increase engagement and call for a more differentiated perspective on the effects of psychological distance in the context of climate change.

Climate change, human impacts, and the resilience of coral reefs

The diversity, frequency, and scale of human impacts on coral reefs are increasing to the extent that reefs are threatened globally. Projected increases in carbon dioxide and temperature over the next 50 years exceed the conditions under which coral reefs have flourished over the past half-million years. However, reefs will change rather than disappear entirely, with some species already showing far greater tolerance to climate change and coral bleaching than others. International integration of management strategies that support reef resilience need to be vigorously implemented, and complemented by strong policy decisions to reduce the rate of global warming.

Global assessment of coral bleaching and required rates of adaptation under climate change

Elevated ocean temperatures can cause coral bleaching, the loss of colour from reef-building corals because of a breakdown of the symbiosis with the dinoflagellate Symbiodinium. Recent studies have warned that global climate change could increase the frequency of coral bleaching and threaten the long-term viability of coral reefs. These assertions are based on projecting the coarse output from atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (GCMs) to the local conditions around representative coral reefs. Here, we conduct the first comprehensive global assessment of coral bleaching under climate change by adapting the NOAA Coral Reef Watch bleaching prediction method to the output of a low- and high-climate sensitivity GCM. First, we develop and test algorithms for predicting mass coral bleaching with GCM-resolution sea surface temperatures for thousands of coral reefs, using a global coral reef map and 1985-2002 bleaching prediction data. We then use the algorithms to determine the frequency of coral bleaching and required thermal adaptation by corals and their endosymbionts under two different emissions scenarios. The results indicate that bleaching could become an annual or biannual event for the vast majority of the world's coral reefs in the next 30-50 years without an increase in thermal tolerance of 0.2-1.0 degrees C per decade. The geographic variability in required thermal adaptation found in each model and emissions scenario suggests that coral reefs in some regions, like Micronesia and western Polynesia, may be particularly vulnerable to climate change. Advances in modelling and monitoring will refine the forecast for individual reefs, but this assessment concludes that the global prognosis is unlikely to change without an accelerated effort to stabilize atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations.

Corporate environmental and climate change disclosures:empirical evidence from Bangladesh

Purpose-In this article, we examine the nature and the extent of corporate environmental and climate change disclosures in Bangladesh. Design/methodology/ approach-For this purpose, we have undertaken a content analysis of annual reports related to the year 2008 and websites of the 100 largest companies (according to market capitalization) listed on the Dhaka Stock Exchange. We have used 24 content analysis categories to capture the relevant disclosures related to climate change and other environmental issues. Findings-Key findings of our analysis suggest that the level of environmental and climate change disclosures is very low in Bangladesh. Although 91% of companies made disclosures in at least one category, most companies disclosed information only on the ''energy usage'' category, which is a mandatory requirement. Even fewer companies made disclosures in the specific areas of climate change. No disclosure was made in the significant categories such as GHG emissions. The second most popular category related to climate change was adaptation measures. Among the other environmental disclosures, a significant finding is that only 5% of (website 6%) companies disclosed that they had an effluent treatment plant. Closer examination of the nature of disclosures suggests that most of the disclosures are positive and descriptive in nature. Originality/value-As far as we are aware, this is the first study of its kind in Bangladesh which systematically examines corporate climate change disclosures as a particular focus of research. Copyright © 2010 by Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

Climate change and construction sector SMEs:vulnerability, consequences and resilience

Climate change has become one of the prime challenges the society has to face in the future. As far as businesses are concerned, it also has added one other important issue that they have to consider as part of their business planning. Climate change is of significant importance particularly to the Small and Medium-sized enterprises (SMEs), which are considered as the most vulnerable among the business community to the effects of climate change. This paper presents the findings of a literature review conducted with the aim of identifying the specific importance of climate change to the construction sector SMEs. The objectives of the paper are to identify the vulnerability of construction sector SMEs to the effects of climate change, their consequences and also to identify the importance of improving resilience and implementing adaptive measures to manage these issues. The paper also outlines the directions of a study undertaken to address these issues as part of an EPSRC funded research project titled “Community Resilience to Extreme Weather Events – CREW”. The paper concludes by stressing the importance of improving the resilience of construction sector SMEs to climate change effects and also the importance of collective action in this regard.

Climate change performance measurement, control and accountability in English local areas

Purpose – This paper aims to consider how climate change performance is measured and accounted for within the performance framework for local authority areas in England adopted in 2008. It critically evaluates the design of two mitigation and one adaptation indicators that are most relevant to climate change. Further, the potential for these performance indicators to contribute to climate change mitigation and adaptation is discussed. Design/methodology/approach – The authors begin by examining the importance of the performance framework and the related Local Area Agreements (LAAs), which were negotiated for all local areas in England between central government and Local Strategic Partnerships (LSPs). This development is located within the broader literature relating to new public management. The potential for this framework to assist in delivering the UK's climate change policy objectives is researched in a two-stage process. First, government publications and all 150 LAAs were analysed to identify the level of priority given to the climate change indicators. Second, interviews were conducted in spring 2009 with civil servants and local authority officials from the English West Midlands who were engaged in negotiating the climate change content of the LAAs. Findings – Nationally, the authors find that 97 per cent of LAAs included at least one climate change indicator as a priority. The indicators themselves, however, are perceived to be problematic – in terms of appropriateness, accuracy and timeliness. In addition, concerns were identified about the level of local control over the drivers of climate change performance and, therefore, a question is raised as to how LSPs can be held accountable for this. On a more positive note, for those concerned about climate change, the authors do find evidence that the inclusion of these indicators within the performance framework has helped to move climate change up the agenda for local authorities and their partners. However, actions by the UK's new coalition government to abolish the national performance framework and substantially reduce public expenditure potentially threaten this advance. Originality/value – This paper offers an insight into a new development for measuring climate change performance at a local level, which is relatively under-researched. It also contributes to knowledge of accountability within a local government setting and provides a reference point for further research into the potential role of local actions to address the issue of climate change.

The challenges of delivering climate change policy at the sub-national level

It is asserted that sub-national government has a key role in responding to climate change. Drawing on a case study of metropolitan authorities in the English Midlands, this article examines the contribution of local authorities and their partners in delivering climate change targets agreed upon with central government. Rather than achieving fundamental change, actions were hampered by competing priorities, fragmented responsibilities, limited resources and difficulties in measuring outcomes. Nevertheless, in light of public expenditure cuts and the current coalition government's commitment to free councils from central targets, gaining support for local climate change actions will become even more challenging.