Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Review of regulatory framework for environmental information

If Australian scientists are to fully and actively participate in international scientific collaborations utilising online technologies, policies and laws must support the data access and reuse objectives of these projects. To date Australia lacks a comprehensive policy and regulatory framework for environmental information and data generally. Instead there exists a series of unconnected Acts that adopt historically-based, sector-specific approaches to the collection, use and reuse of environmental information. This paper sets out the findings of an analysis of a representative sample of Australian statutes relating to environmental management and protection to determine the extent to which they meet best practice criteria for access to and reuse of environmental information established in international initiatives. It identifies issues that need to be addressed in the legislation governing environmental information to ensure that Australian scientists are able to fully engage in international research collaborations.

Variability of input parameters related to pollutants build-up in stormwater quality modelling

The variability of input parameters is the most important source of overall model uncertainty. Therefore, an in-depth understanding of the variability is essential for uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality model outputs. This paper presents the outcomes of a research study which investigated the variability of pollutants build-up characteristics on road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary highly even within the same land use. Additionally, industrial land use showed relatively higher variability of maximum build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution, whilst the commercial land use displayed a relatively higher variability of pollutant-solid ratio. Among the various build-up parameters analysed, D50 (volume-median-diameter) displayed the relatively highest variability for all three land uses.

Uncertainty and innovation in fashion design

Generally speaking, psychologists have suggested three traditional views of how people cope with uncertainty. They are the certainty maximiser, the intuitive statistician-economist and the knowledge seeker (Smithson, 2008). In times of uncertainty, such as the recent global financial crisis, these coping methods often result in innovation in industry. Richards (2003) identifies innovation as different from creativity in that innovation aims to transform and implement rather than simply explore and invent. An examination of the work of iconic fashion designers, through case study and situational analysis, reveals that coping with uncertainty manifests itself in ways that have resulted in innovations in design, marketing methods, production and consumption. In relation to contemporary fashion, where many garments look the same in style, colour, cut and fit (Finn, 2008), the concept of innovation is an important one. This paper explores the role of uncertainty as a driver of innovation in fashion design. A key aspect of seeking knowledge, as a mechanism to cope with this uncertainty, is a return to basics. This is a problem for contemporary fashion designers who are no longer necessarily makers and therefore do not engage with the basic materials and methods of garment construction. In many cases design in fashion has become digital, communicated to an unseen, unknown production team via scanned image and specification alone. The disconnection between the design and the making of garments, as a result of decades of off-shore manufacturing, has limited the opportunity for this return to basics. The authors argue that the role of the fashion designer has become about the final product and as a result there is a lack of innovation in the process of making: in the form, fit and function of fashion garments. They propose that ‘knowledge seeking’ as a result of uncertainty in the fashion industry, in particular through re-examination of the methods of making, could hold the key to a new era of innovation in fashion design.

Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

Addressing sustainable living using a collaborative approach and multi-disciplinary techniques

In order to achieve meaningful reductions in individual ecological footprints, individuals must dramatically alter their day to day behaviours. Effective interventions will need to be evidence based and there is a necessity for the rapid transfer or communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. A number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being and it is becoming clear that the most practical pathway to achieving this mission is through interdisciplinary collaboration. This paper argues that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate research that results in the rapid transfer of findings into policy and practice. The application of this approach is described in relation to the Green Living project which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in consultation with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay (Queensland, Australia). The Green Living survey explored specific beliefs which included attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as a number of other constructs such as environmental concern and altruism. This research has two beneficial outcomes. First, it will inform a practical model for predicting sustainable living behaviours and a number of local councils have already expressed an interest in making use of the results as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Second, it provides an example of how a collaborative interdisciplinary project can provide a more comprehensive approach to research than can be accomplished by a single disciplinary project.

Online environmental information systems

In today’s information society, electronic tools, such as computer networks for the rapid transfer of data and composite databases for information storage and management, are critical in ensuring effective environmental management. In particular environmental policies and programs for federal, state, and local governments need a large volume of up-to-date information on the quality of water, air, and soil in order to conserve and protect natural resources and to carry out meteorology. In line with this, the utilization of information and communication technologies (ICTs) is crucial to preserve and improve the quality of life. In handling tasks in the field of environmental protection a range of environmental and technical information is often required for a complex and mutual decision making in a multidisciplinary team environment. In this regard e-government provides a foundation of the transformative ICT initiative which can lead to better environmental governance, better services, and increased public participation in environmental decision- making process.

The concealed difficulties of aligning CRE decisions to corporate goals

Realisation of the importance of real estate asset strategic decision making has inspired a burgeoning corporate real estate management (CREM) literature. Much of this criticises the poor alignment between strategic business direction and the ‘enabling’ physical environment. This is based on the understanding that corporate real estate assets represent the physical resource base that supports business, and can either complement or impede that business. In the hope of resolving this problem, CRE authors advocate a deeper integration of strategic and corporate real estate decisions. However this recommendation appears to be based on a relatively simplistic theoretical approach to organization where decision-making tends to be viewed as a rationally managed event rather than a complex process. Defining decision making as an isolated event has led to an uncritical acceptance of two basic assumptions: ubiquitous, conflict-free rationality and profit maximisation. These assumptions have encouraged prescriptive solutions that clearly lack the sophistication necessary to come to grips with the complexity of the built and organizational environment. Alternatively, approaching CREM decision making from a more sophisticated perspective, such as that of the “Carnegie School”, leads to conceptualise it as a ‘process’, creating room for bounded rationality, multiple goals, intra-organizational conflict, environmental matching, uncertainty avoidance and problem searching. It is reasonable to expect that such an approach will result in a better understanding of the organizational context, which will facilitate the creation of organizational objectives, assist with the formation of strategies, and ultimately will aid decision.

A Raman spectroscopic study of copiapites Fe2+Fe3+(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O: environmental implications

Raman spectroscopy has been used to study selected mineral samples of the copiapite group. Copiapite (Fe2+Fe3+(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O) is a secondary mineral formed through the oxidn. of pyrite. Minerals of the copiapite group have the general formula AFe4(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O, where A has a + 2 charge and can be either magnesium, iron, copper, calcium and/or zinc. The formula can also be B2/3Fe4(SO4)6(OH)2 · 20H2O, where B has a + 3 charge and may be either aluminum or iron. For each mineral, two Raman bands are obsd. at around 992 and 1029 cm-1, assigned to the (SO4)2-ν1 sym. stretching mode. The observation of two bands provides evidence for the existence of two non-equiv. sulfate anions in the mineral structure. Three Raman bands at 1112, 1142 and 1161 cm-1 are obsd. in the Raman spectrum of copiapites, indicating a redn. of symmetry of the sulfate anion in the copiapite structure. This redn. in symmetry is supported by multiple bands in the ν2 and ν4(SO4)2- spectral regions.

Information sharing with key suppliers : a transaction cost theory perspective

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to explain variations in discretionary information shared between buyers and key suppliers. The paper also aims to examine how the extent of information shared affects buyers’ performance in terms of resource usage, output, and flexibility. ----- ----- Design/methodology/approach: The data for the paper comprise 221 Finnish and Swedish non-service companies obtained through a mail survey. The hypothesized relationships were tested using partial least squares modelling with reflective and formative constructs.----- ----- Findings: The results of the study suggest that (environmental and demand) uncertainty and interdependency can to some degree explain the extent of information shared between a buyer and key supplier. Furthermore, information sharing improves buyers’ performance with respect to resource usage, output, and flexibility.----- ----- Research limitations/implications: A limitation to the paper relates to the data, which only included buyers.Abetter approach would have been to collect data from both, buyers and key suppliers. Practical implications – Companies face a wide range of supply chain solutions that enable and encourage collaboration across organizations. This paper suggests a more selective and balanced approach toward adopting the solutions offered as the benefits are contingent on a number of factors such as uncertainty. Also, the risks of information sharing are far too high for a one size fits all approach.----- ----- Originality/value: The paper illustrates the applicability of transaction cost theory to the contemporary era of e-commerce. With this finding, transaction cost economics can provide a valuable lens with which to view and interpret interorganizational information sharing, a topic that has received much attention in the recent years.

Characterisation of organoclays and adsorption of p-nitrophenol : environmental application

Organoclays were synthesised through ion exchange of a single surfactant for sodium ions, and characterised by a range of method including X-ray diffraction (XRD), BET, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), thermogravimetric analysis (TGA), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FT-IR), and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The change in surface properties of montmorillonite and organoclays intercalated with the surfactant, tetradecyltrimethylammonium bromide (TDTMA) were determined using XRD through the change in basal spacing and the expansion occurred by the adsorbed p-nitrophenol. The changes of interlayer spacing were observed in TEM. In addition, the surface measurement such as specific surface area and pore volume was measured and calculated using BET method, this suggested the loaded surfactant is highly important to determine the sorption mechanism onto organoclays. The collected results of XPS provided the chemical composition of montmorillonite and organoclays, and the high-resolution XPS spectra offered the chemical states of prepared organoclays with binding energy. Using TGA and FT-IR, the confirmation of intercalated surfactant was investigated. The collected data from various techniques enable an understanding of the changes in structure and surface properties. This study is of importance to provide mechanisms for the adsorption of organic molecules, especially in contaminated environmental sites and polluted waters.

Design for eco-services. Part A - Environmental Services

Without the virtually free services of nature like clean air and water, humans would not last long. Natural systems can be incorporated in existing urban structures or spaces to add public amenity, mitigate the heat island effect, reduce pollution, add oxygen, and ensure water, electricity and food security in urban areas. Th ere are many eco-solutions that could radically reduce resource consumption and pollution and even provide surplus ecosystem services in the built environment at little or no operational cost, if adequately supported by design. Th is paper is the fi rst of a two part paper that explains what eco-services are, then provides examples of how design can generate natural as well as social capital. Using examples of actual and notional solutions, both papers set out to challenge designers to ‘think again’, and invent ways of creating net positive environmental gains through built environment design.

An examination of the relationship between emotional intelligence, leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes in Australian educational institutions

In the field of leadership studies transformational leadership theory (e.g., Bass, 1985; Avolio, Bass, & Jung, 1995) has received much attention from researchers in recent years (Hughes, Ginnet, & Curphy, 2009; Hunt, 1999). Many previous studies have found that transformational leadership is related to positive outcomes such as the satisfaction, motivation and performance of followers in organisations (Judge & Piccolo, 2004; Lowe, Kroeck, & Sivasubramaniam, 1996), including in educational institutions (Chin, 2007; Leithwoood & Jantzi, 2005). Hence, it is important to explore constructs that may predict leadership style in order to identify potential transformational leaders in leadership assessment and selection procedures. Several researchers have proposed that emotional intelligence (EI) is one construct that may account for hitherto unexplained variance in transformational leadership (Mayer, 2001; Watkin, 2000). Different models of EI exist (e.g., Goleman, 1995, 2001; Bar-On, 1997; Mayer & Salovey, 1997) but momentum is growing for the Mayer and Salovey (1997) model to be considered the most useful (Ashkanasy & Daus, 2005; Daus & Ashkanasy, 2005). Studies in non-educational settings claim to have found that EI is a useful predictor of leadership style and leader effectiveness (Harms & Crede, 2010; Mills, 2009) but there is a paucity of studies which have examined the Mayer and Salovey (1997) model of EI in educational settings. Furthermore, other predictor variables have rarely been controlled in previous studies and only self-ratings of leadership behaviours, rather than multiple ratings, have usually been obtained. Therefore, more research is required in educational settings to answer the question: to what extent is the Mayer and Salovey (1997) model of EI a useful predictor of leadership style and leadership outcomes? This project, set in Australian educational institutions, was designed to move research in the field forward by: using valid and reliable instruments, controlling for other predictors, obtaining an adequately sized sample of real leaders as participants and obtaining multiple ratings of leadership behaviours. Other variables commonly used to predict leadership behaviours (personality factors and general mental ability) were assessed and controlled in the project. Additionally, integrity was included as another potential predictor of leadership behaviours as it has previously been found to be related to transformational leadership (Parry & Proctor-Thomson, 2002). Multiple ratings of leadership behaviours were obtained from each leader and their supervisors, peers and followers. The following valid and reliable psychological tests were used to operationalise the variables of interest: leadership styles and perceived leadership outcomes (Multifactor Leadership Questionnaire, Avolio et al., 1995), EI (Mayer–Salovey–Caruso Emotional Intelligence Test, Mayer, Salovey, & Caruso, 2002), personality factors (The Big Five Inventory, John, Donahue, & Kentle, 1991), general mental ability (Wonderlic Personnel Test-Quicktest, Wonderlic, 2003) and integrity (Integrity Express, Vangent, 2002). A Pilot Study (N = 25 leaders and 75 raters) made a preliminary examination of the relationship between the variables included in the project. Total EI, the experiential area, and the managing emotions and perceiving emotions branches of EI, were found to be related to transformational leadership which indicated that further research was warranted. In the Main Study, 144 leaders and 432 raters were recruited as participants to assess the discriminant validity of the instruments and examine the usefulness of EI as a predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes. Scores for each leadership scale across the four rating levels (leaders, supervisors, peers and followers) were aggregated with the exception of the management-by-exception active scale of transactional leadership which had an inadequate level of interrater agreement. In the descriptive and measurement component of the Main Study, the instruments were found to demonstrate adequate discriminant validity. The impact of role and gender on leadership style and EI were also examined, and females were found to be more transformational as leaders than males. Females also engaged in more contingent reward (transactional leadership) behaviours than males, whilst males engaged in more passive/avoidant leadership behaviours than females. In the inferential component of the Main Study, multiple regression procedures were used to examine the usefulness of EI as a predictor of leadership style and perceived leadership outcomes. None of the EI branches were found to be related to transformational leadership or the perceived leadership outcomes variables included in the study. Openness, emotional stability (the inverse of neuroticism) and general mental ability (inversely) each predicted a small amount of variance in transformational leadership. Passive/avoidant leadership was inversely predicted by the understanding emotions branch of EI. Overall, EI was not found to be a useful predictor of leadership style and leadership outcomes in the Main Study of this project. Implications for researchers and human resource practitioners are discussed.

Characteristics of utility cyclists in Queensland, Australia : an examination of the associations between individual, social and environmental factors and utility cycling

Background: Initiatives to promote utility cycling in countries like Australia and the US, which have low rates of utility cycling, may be more effective if they first target recreational cyclists. This study aimed to describe patterns of utility cycling and examine its correlates, among cyclists in Queensland, Australia. Methods: An online survey was administered to adult members of a state-based cycling community and advocacy group (n=1813). The survey asked about demographic characteristics and cycling behavior, motivators and constraints. Utility cycling patterns were described, and logistic regression modeling was used to examine associations between utility cycling and other variables. Results: Forty-seven percent of respondents reported utility cycling: most did so to commute (86%). Most journeys (83%) were >5 km. Being male, younger, employed full-time, or university-educated increased the likelihood of utility cycling (p<0.05). Perceiving cycling to be a cheap or a convenient form of transport were associated with utility cycling (p<0.05). Conclusions: The moderate rate of utility cycling among recreational cyclists highlights a potential to promote utility cycling among this group. To increase utility cycling, strategies should target female and older recreational cyclists and focus on making cycling a cheap and convenient mode of transport.