Tools in pharmacovigilance in psychiatry: therapeutic drug monitoring, pharmacogenetic tests and drug-drug interactions databases

SUMMARYIn order to increase drug safety we must better understand how medication interacts with the body of our patients and this knowledge should be made easily available for the clinicians prescribing the medication. This thesis contributes to how the knowledge of some drug properties can increase and how to make information readily accessible for the medical professionals. Furthermore it investigates the use of Therapeutic drug monitoring, drug interaction databases and pharmacogenetic tests in pharmacovigilance.Two pharmacogenetic studies in the naturalistic setting of psychiatric in-patients clinics have been performed; one with the antidepressant mirtazapine, the other with the antipsychotic clozapine. Forty-five depressed patients have been treated with mirtazapine and were followed for 8 weeks. The therapeutic effect was as seen in other previous studies. Enantioselective analyses could confirm an influence of age, gender and smoking in the pharmacokinetics of mirtazapine; it showed a significant influence of the CYP2D6 genotype on the antidepressant effective S-enantiomer, and for the first time an influence of the CYP2B6 genotype on the plasma concentrations of the 8-OH metabolite was found. The CYP2B6*/*6 genotype was associated to better treatment response. A detailed hypothesis of the metabolic pathways of mirtazapine is proposed. In the second pharmacogenetic study, analyses of 75 schizophrenic patients treated with clozapine showed the influence of CYP450 and ABCB1 genotypes on its pharmacokinetics. For the first time we could demonstrate an in vivo effect of the CYP2C19 genotype and an influence of P-glycoprotein on the plasma concentrations of clozapine. Further we confirmed in vivo the prominent role of CYP1A2 in the metabolism of clozapine.Identifying risk factors for the occurrence of serious adverse drug reactions (SADR) would allow a more individualized and safer drug therapy. SADR are rare events and therefore difficult to study. We tested the feasibility of a nested matched case-control study to examine the influence of high drug plasma levels and CYP2D6 genotypes on the risk to experience an SADR. In our sample we compared 62 SADR cases with 82 controls; both groups were psychiatric patients from the in-patient clinic Königsfelden. Drug plasma levels of >120% of the upper recommended references could be identified as a risk factor with a statistically significant odds ratio of 3.5, a similar trend could be seen for CYP2D6 poor metaboliser. Although a matched case-control design seems a valid method, 100% matching is not easy to perform in a relative small cohort of one in-patient clinic. However, a nested case-control study is feasible.On the base of the experience gained in the AMSP+ study and the fact that we have today only sparse data indicating that routine drug plasma concentration monitoring and/or pharmacogenetic testing in psychiatry are justified to minimize the risk for ADR, we developed a test algorithm named "TDM plus" (TDM plus interaction checks plus pharmacogenetic testing).Pharmacovigilance programs such as the AMSP project (AMSP = Arzneimittelsicherheit in der Psychiatrie) survey psychiatric in-patients in order to collect SADR and to detect new safety signals. Case reports of such SADR are, although anecdotal, valuable to illustrate rare clinical events and sometimes confirm theoretical assumptions of e.g. drug interactions. Seven pharmacovigilance case reports are summarized in this thesis.To provide clinicians with meaningful information on the risk of drug combinations, during the course of this thesis the internet based drug interaction program mediQ.ch (in German) has been developed. Risk estimation is based on published clinical and pharmacological information of single drugs and alimentary products, including adverse drug reaction profiles. Information on risk factors such as renal and hepatic insufficiency and specific genotypes are given. More than 20'000 drug pairs have been described in detail. Over 2000 substances with their metabolic and transport pathways are included and all information is referenced with links to the published scientific literature or other information sources. Medical professionals of more than 100 hospitals and 300 individual practitioners do consult mediQ.ch regularly. Validations with comparisons to other drug interaction programs show good results.Finally, therapeutic drug monitoring, drug interaction programs and pharmacogenetic tests are helpful tools in pharmacovigilance and should, in absence of sufficient routine tests supporting data, be used as proposed in our TDM plus algorithm.RESUMEPour améliorer la sécurité d'emploi des médicaments il est important de mieux comprendre leurs interactions dans le corps des patients. Ensuite le clinicien qui prescrit une pharmacothérapie doit avoir un accès simple à ces informations. Entre autres, cette thèse contribue à mieux connaître les caractéristiques pharmacocinétiques de deux médicaments. Elle examine aussi l'utilisation de trois outils en pharmacovigilance : le monitorage thérapeutique des taux plasmatiques des médicaments (« therapeutic drug monitoring »), un programme informatisé d'estimation du risque de combinaisons médicamenteuses, et enfin des tests pharmacogénétiques.Deux études cliniques pharmacogénétiques ont été conduites dans le cadre habituel de clinique psychiatrique : l'une avec la mirtazapine (antidépresseur), l'autre avec la clozapine (antipsychotique). On a traité 45 patients dépressifs avec de la mirtazapine pendant 8 semaines. L'effet thérapeutique était semblable à celui des études précédentes. Nous avons confirmé l'influence de l'âge et du sexe sur la pharmacocinétique de la mirtazapine et la différence dans les concentrations plasmatiques entre fumeurs et non-fumeurs. Au moyen d'analyses énantiomères sélectives, nous avons pu montrer une influence significative du génotype CYP2D6 sur l'énantiomère S+, principalement responsable de l'effet antidépresseur. Pour la première fois, nous avons trouvé une influence du génotype CYP2B6 sur les taux plasmatiques de la 8-OH-mirtazapine. Par ailleurs, le génotype CYP2B6*6/*6 était associé à une meilleure réponse thérapeutique. Une hypothèse sur les voies métaboliques détaillées de la mirtazapine est proposée. Dans la deuxième étude, 75 patients schizophrènes traités avec de la clozapine ont été examinés pour étudier l'influence des génotypes des iso-enzymes CYP450 et de la protéine de transport ABCB1 sur la pharmacocinétique de cet antipsychotique. Pour la première fois, on a montré in vivo un effet des génotypes CYP2C19 et ABCB1 sur les taux plasmatiques de la clozapine. L'importance du CYP1A2 dans le métabolisme de la clozapine a été confirmée.L'identification de facteurs de risques dans la survenue d'effets secondaire graves permettrait une thérapie plus individualisée et plus sûre. Les effets secondaires graves sont rares. Dans une étude de faisabilité (« nested matched case-control design » = étude avec appariement) nous avons comparé des patients avec effets secondaires graves à des patients-contrôles prenant le même type de médicaments mais sans effets secondaires graves. Des taux plasmatiques supérieurs à 120% de la valeur de référence haute sont associés à un risque avec « odds ratio » significatif de 3.5. Une tendance similaire est apparue pour le génotype du CYP2D6. Le « nested matched case-control design » semble une méthode valide qui présente cependant une difficulté : trouver des patients-contrôles dans le cadre d'une seule clinique psychiatrique. Par contre la conduite d'une « nested case-control study » sans appariement est recommandable.Sur la base de notre expérience de l'étude AMSP+ et le fait que nous disposons que de peux de données justifiant des monitorings de taux plasmatiques et/ou de tests pharmacogénétiques de routine, nous avons développé un test algorithme nommé « TDMplus » (TDM + vérification d'interactions médicamenteuses + tests pharmacogénétique).Des programmes de pharmacovigilances comme celui de l'AMSP (Arzneimittelsicherheit in der Psychiatrie = pharmacovigilance en psychiatrie) collectent les effets secondaires graves chez les patients psychiatriques hospitalisés pour identifier des signaux d'alertes. La publication de certains de ces cas même anecdotiques est précieuse. Elle décrit des événements rares et quelques fois une hypothèse sur le potentiel d'une interaction médicamenteuse peut ainsi être confirmée. Sept publications de cas sont résumées ici.Dans le cadre de cette thèse, on a développé un programme informatisé sur internet (en allemand) - mediQ.ch - pour estimer le potentiel de risques d'une interaction médicamenteuse afin d'offrir en ligne ces informations utiles aux cliniciens. Les estimations de risques sont fondées sur des informations cliniques (y compris les profils d'effets secondaires) et pharmacologiques pour chaque médicament ou substance combinés. Le programme donne aussi des informations sur les facteurs de risques comme l'insuffisance rénale et hépatique et certains génotypes. Actuellement il décrit en détail les interactions potentielles de plus de 20'000 paires de médicaments, et celles de 2000 substances actives avec leurs voies de métabolisation et de transport. Chaque information mentionne sa source d'origine; un lien hypertexte permet d'y accéder. Le programme mediQ.ch est régulièrement consulté par les cliniciens de 100 hôpitaux et par 300 praticiens indépendants. Les premières validations et comparaisons avec d'autres programmes sur les interactions médicamenteuses montrent de bons résultats.En conclusion : le monitorage thérapeutique des médicaments, les programmes informatisés contenant l'information sur le potentiel d'interaction médicamenteuse et les tests pharmacogénétiques sont de précieux outils en pharmacovigilance. Nous proposons de les utiliser en respectant l'algorithme « TDM plus » que nous avons développé.

Increased EBV Reactivation in the Cerebrospinal Fluid of Patients with Early Multiple Sclerosis

Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) has been consistently associated with multiple sclerosis (MS), but whether this virus is a trigger of MS remains undetermined. Recently, EBV-infected B cells recognized by activated CD8_ T cells have been detected in the meninges of autopsied MS patients. In addition, a strong EBV-specific CD8_ T cell response in the blood of patients with MS of recent onset was reported. Here, to further explore the putative relationship between MS and EBV, we assessed the EBV-specific cellular and humoral immune responses in the blood and the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) of patients with early MS or other neurological diseases, separated into inflammatory (IOND) and non-inflammatory (NIOND) groups. The MS non-associated neurotropic herpesvirus cytomegalovirus (CMV) served as a control. Fifty-eight study subjects were enrolled, including 44 patients (13 with early MS (onset of MS less than one year prior to the assay), 15 with IOND and 16 with NIOND) in the immunological arm of the study. The cellular immune response was investigated using a functional CFSE cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) assay performed with short-term cultured EBV- or CMVspecific effector T cells from the CSF and the blood. The humoral immune response specific for these two viruses was also examined in both the blood and the CSF. The recruitment of a given virusspecific antibody in the CSF as compared to the blood was expressed as antibody indexes (AI). We found that, in the CSF of early MS patients, there was an enrichment in EBV-, but not CMV-specific, CD8_ CTL as compared to the CSF of IOND (P_ 0.003) and NIOND patients (P_0.0009), as well as compared to paired blood samples (P_0.005). Additionally, relative viral capsid antigen (VCA)-, but not EBV encoded nuclear antigen 1 (EBNA1)- or CMV-specific, AI were increased in the CSF of early MS as compared to IOND (P_0.002) or NIOND patients (P_0.008) and correlated with the EBVspecific CD8_ CTL responses in the CSF (rs_0.54, P_0.001). Fourteen additional patients were enrolled in the virological arm of the study: using semi-nested PCR, EBV-encoded nuclear RNA1 (EBER1)-a transcript expressed during all stages of EBV infection-was detected in the CSF of 2/4 early MS, but only 1/6 IOND and 0/4 NIOND patients. Altogether, our data suggest that a reactivation of EBV, but not CMV, is taking place in the central nervous system of patients with MS of recent onset. These data significantly strengthen the link between EBV and MS and may indicate a triggering role of EBV in this disease. This work was supported by grants from the Swiss National Foundation and from the Swiss Society for Multiple Sclerosis.

Plasma leptin levels in men are not related to the development of lipoatrophy during antiretroviral therapy.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the correlations between the hormone leptin and lipoatrophy in HIV-positive, treatment-naive patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART). DESIGN: Case-control study nested in a multicentre cohort of HIV-infected adults. Cases were patients that developed lipoatrophy and controls those who did not. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Clinical parameters and plasma leptin determinations were studied in 97 HIV-1-infected, treatment-naive Caucasian men (10 cases and 87 controls) on an unchanged and virologically successful drug regimen with a zidovudine/lamivudine backbone at baseline and after 2 years of cART. The association of plasma leptin levels and the development of lipoatrophy was investigated. RESULTS: Two years of cART was not associated with a change in plasma leptin levels. Plasma leptin levels remained sensible to changes in body mass index. There was no difference in leptin levels between patients who developed lipoatrophy and controls, neither before nor after cART. The only predictor of development of lipoatrophy was a higher age (P = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Leptin as measured in plasma is unlikely to play a major role in the genesis of lipoatrophy.

A step-by-step tutorial to use HierFstat to analyse populations hierarchically structured at multiple levels.

The populations of parasites and infectious agents are most of the time structured in complex hierarchy that lies beyond the classical nested design described by Wright's F-statistics (F(IS), F(ST) and F(IT)). In this note we propose a user-friendly step-by-step notice for using recent software (HierFstat) that computes and test fixation indices for any hierarchical structure. We add some tricks and tips for some special data kind (haploid, single locus), some other procedure (bootstrap over loci) and how to handle crossed factors.

A variant in the gene FUT9 is associated with susceptibility to placental malaria infection

Malaria in pregnancy forms a substantial part of the worldwide burden of malaria, with an estimated annual death toll of up to 200,000 infants, as well as increased maternal morbidity and mortality. Studies of genetic susceptibility to malaria have so far focused on infant malaria, with only a few studies investigating the genetic basis of placental malaria, focusing only on a limited number of candidate genes. The aim of this study therefore was to identify novel host genetic factors involved in placental malaria infection. To this end we carried out a nested case-control study on 180 Mozambican pregnant women with placental malaria infection, and 180 controls within an intervention trial of malaria prevention. We genotyped 880 SNPs in a set of 64 functionally related genes involved in glycosylation and innate immunity. A SNP located in the gene FUT9, rs3811070, was significantly associated with placental malaria infection (OR = 2.31, permutation p-value = 0.028). Haplotypic analysis revealed a similarly strong association of a common haplotype of four SNPs including rs3811070. FUT9 codes for a fucosyl-transferase that is catalyzing the last step in the biosynthesis of the Lewis-x antigen, which forms part of the Lewis blood group-related antigens. These results therefore suggest an involvement of this antigen in the pathogenesis of placental malaria infection.

Calibration and Validation of SWAT for the Upper Maquoketa River Watershed, June 2005

A validation study has been performed using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with data collected for the Upper Maquoketa River Watershed (UMRW), which drains over 16,000 ha in northeast Iowa. This validation assessment builds on a previous study with nested modeling for the UMRW that required both the Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) model and SWAT. In the nested modeling approach, edge-offield flows and pollutant load estimates were generated for manure application fields with APEX and were then subsequently routed to the watershed outlet in SWAT, along with flows and pollutant loadings estimated for the rest of the watershed routed to the watershed outlet. In the current study, the entire UMRW cropland area was simulated in SWAT, which required translating the APEX subareas into SWAT hydrologic response units (HRUs). Calibration and validation of the SWAT output was performed by comparing predicted flow and NO3-N loadings with corresponding in-stream measurements at the watershed outlet from 1999 to 2001. Annual stream flows measured at the watershed outlet were greatly under-predicted when precipitation data collected within the watershed during the 1999-2001 period were used to drive SWAT. Selection of alternative climate data resulted in greatly improved average annual stream predictions, and also relatively strong r2 values of 0.73 and 0.72 for the predicted average monthly flows and NO3-N loads, respectively. The impact of alternative precipitation data shows that as average annual precipitation increases 19%, the relative change in average annual streamflow is about 55%. In summary, the results of this study show that SWAT can replicate measured trends for this watershed and that climate inputs are very important for validating SWAT and other water quality models.

Bloodstream infections related to totally implantable venous access port: What is the situation in our hospital?

Port-a-Cath© (PAC) are totally implantable devices that offer an easy and long term access to venous circulation. They have been extensively used for intravenous therapy administration and are particularly well suited for chemotherapy in oncologic patients. Previous comparative studies have shown that these devices have the lowest catheter-related bloodstream infection rates among all intravascular access systems. However, bloodstream infection (BSI) still remains a major issue of port use and epidemiology data for PAC-associated BSI (PABSI) rates differ strongly depending on studies. Also, current literature about PABSI risk factors is scarce and sometimes controversial. Such heterogeneity may depend on type of studied population and local factors. Therefore, the aim of this study was to describe local epidemiology and risk factors for PABSI in adult patients in our tertiary- care university hospital. We conducted a retrospective cohort study in order to describe local epidemiology. We also performed a nested case-control study to identify local risk factors of PABSI. We analyzed medical files of adult patients who had a PAC implanted between January 1st, 2008 and December 31st, 2009 and looked for PABSI occurrence before May 1st, 2011 to define cases. Thirty nine PABSI occurred in this population with an attack rate of 5.8%. We estimated an incidence rate of 0.08/1000 PAC-days using the case-control study. PABSI causative agents were mainly Gram positive cocci (62%). We identified three predictive factors of PABSI by multivariate statistical analysis: neutropenia on outcome date (Odds Ratio [OR]: 4.05; 95% confidence interval [CI]:1.05- 15.66; p=0.042), diabetes (OR: 11.53; 95% CI: 1.07-124.70; p=0.044) and having another infection than PABSI on outcome date (OR: 6.35; 95% CI: 1.50-26.86; p=0.012). Patients suffering from acute or renal failure (OR: 4.26; 95% CI: 0.94-19.21; p=0.059) or wearing another invasive device (OR: 2.99; 95%CI:0.96-9.31; p=0.059) did not have a statistically increased risk for developing a PABSI according to classical threshold (p<0.05) but nevertheless remained close to significance. Our study demonstrated that local epidemiology and microbiology of PABSI in our institution was similar to previous reports. A larger prospective study is required to confirm our results or to test preventive measures.

Shifts in species and phylogenetic diversity between sapling and tree communities indicate negative density dependence in a lowland rain forest

1. As trees in a given cohort progress through ontogeny, many individuals die. This risk of mortality is unevenly distributed across species because of many processes such as habitat filtering, interspecific competition and negative density dependence. Here, we predict and test the patterns that such ecological processes should inscribe on both species and phylogenetic diversity as plants recruit from saplings to the canopy. 2. We compared species and phylogenetic diversity of sapling and tree communities at two sites in French Guiana. We surveyed 2084 adult trees in four 1-ha tree plots and 943 saplings in sixteen 16-m2 subplots nested within the tree plots. Species diversity was measured using Fisher's alpha (species richness) and Simpson's index (species evenness). Phylogenetic diversity was measured using Faith's phylogenetic diversity (phylogenetic richness) and Rao's quadratic entropy index (phylogenetic evenness). The phylogenetic diversity indices were inferred using four phylogenetic hypotheses: two based on rbcLa plastid DNA sequences obtained from the inventoried individuals with different branch lengths, a global phylogeny available from the Angiosperm Phylogeny Group, and a combination of both. 3. Taxonomic identification of the saplings was performed by combining morphological and DNA barcoding techniques using three plant DNA barcodes (psbA-trnH, rpoC1 and rbcLa). DNA barcoding enabled us to increase species assignment and to assign unidentified saplings to molecular operational taxonomic units. 4. Species richness was similar between saplings and trees, but in about half of our comparisons, species evenness was higher in trees than in saplings. This suggests that negative density dependence plays an important role during the sapling-to-tree transition. 5. Phylogenetic richness increased between saplings and trees in about half of the comparisons. Phylogenetic evenness increased significantly between saplings and trees in a few cases (4 out of 16) and only with the most resolved phylogeny. These results suggest that negative density dependence operates largely independently of the phylogenetic structure of communities. 6. Synthesis. By contrasting species richness and evenness across size classes, we suggest that negative density dependence drives shifts in composition during the sapling-to-tree transition. In addition, we found little evidence for a change in phylogenetic diversity across age classes, suggesting that the observed patterns are not phylogenetically constrained.

Altruism, Equity, and Reciprocity in a Gift-Exchange Experiment: An Encompassing Approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motives must be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recent models of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism- based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compare leading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. We then offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches, thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determining the relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition, the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we find that intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruistic considerations all play a significant role in players' decisions.

Combining bone resorption markers and heel quantitative ultrasound to discriminate between fracture cases and control

Rapport de synthèse : L'ostéoporose est reconnue comme un problème majeur de santé publique. Comme il existe actuellement des traitements préventifs efficaces pour minimiser le risque de fracture, il est essentiel de développer des nouvelles stratégies de détection des femmes à risque de fracture. Les marqueurs spécifiques du remodelage osseux dosés dans les urines ainsi que les ultrasons quantitatifs du talon ont été étudiés comme outils cliniques pour prédire le risque fracturaire chez les femmes âgées. Il n'existe cependant que très peu de donnée sur la combinaison de ces deux outils pour améliorer la prédiction du risque de fracture. Cette étude cas-contrôle, réalisée chez 368 femmes âgées de 76 ans en moyenne d'une cohorte suisse de femmes ambulatoires, évalue la capacité discriminative entre 195 femmes avec fracture non-vertébrale à bas traumatisme et 173 femmes sans fractures - de deux marqueurs urinaires de la résorption osseuse, les pyridinolines et les deoxypyridinolines, ainsi que deux ultrasons quantitatifs du talon, le Achilles+ (GE-Lunar, Madison, USA) et le Sahara (Hologic, Waltham, USA). Les 195 patientes avec une fracture ont été choisies identiques aux 173 contrôles concernant Page, l'indice de masse corporel, le centre médical et la durée de suivi jusqu'à la fracture. Cette étude montre que les marqueurs urinaires de la résorption osseuse ont une capacité environ identique aux ultrasons quantitatifs du talon pour discriminer entre les patientes avec fracture non-vertébrale à bas traumatisme et les contrôles. La combinaison des deux tests n'est cependant pas plus performante qu'un seul test. Les résultats de cette étude peuvent aider à concevoir les futures stratégies de détection du risque fracturaire chez les femmes âgées, qui intègrent notamment des facteurs de risque cliniques, radiologiques et biochimiques. Abstract : Summary : This nested case-control analysis of a Swiss ambulatory cohort of elderly women assessed the discriminatory power of urinary markers of bone resorption and heel quantitative ultrasound for non-vertebral fractures. The tests all discriminated between cases and controls, but combining the two strategies yielded no additional relevant information. Introduction : Data are limited regarding the combination of bone resorption markers and heel quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS) in the detection of women at risk for fracture. Methods In a nested case-control analysis, we studied 368 women (mean age 76.213.2 years), 195 with low-trauma non-vertebral fractures and 173 without, matched for age, BMI, medical center, and follow-up duration, from a prospective study designed to predict fractures. Urinary total pyridinolines (PYD) and deoxypyridinolines (DPD) were measured by high performance liquid chromatography. All women underwent bone evaluations using Achilles+ and Sahara heel QUS. Results : Areas under the receiver operating-characteristic curve (AUC) for discriminative models of the fracture group, with 95% confidence intervals, were 0.62 (0.560.68) and 0.59 (0.53-0.65) for PYD and DPD, and 0.64 (0.58-0.69) and 0.65 (0.59-0.71) for Achilles+ and Sahara QUS, respectively. The combination of resorption markers and QUS added no significant discriminatory information to either measurement alone with an AUC of 0.66 (0.600.71) for Achilles+ with PYD and 0.68 (0.62-0.73) for Sahara with PYD. Conclusions : Urinary bone resorption markers and QUS are equally discriminatory between non-vertebral fracture patients and controls. However, the combination of bone resorption markers and QUS is not better than either test used alone.

When to carry eccentric products? Optimal retail assortment under consumer returns

To understand whether retailers should consider consumer returns when merchandising, we study howthe optimal assortment of a price-taking retailer is influenced by its return policy. The retailer selects itsassortment from an exogenous set of horizontally differentiated products. Consumers make purchase andkeep/return decisions in nested multinomial logit fashion. Our main finding is that the optimal assortmenthas a counterintuitive structure for relatively strict return policies: It is optimal to offer a mix of the mostpopular and most eccentric products when the refund amount is sufficiently low, which can be viewed asa form of risk sharing between the retailer and consumers. In contrast, if the refund is sufficiently high, orwhen returns are disallowed, optimal assortment is composed of only the most popular products (a commonfinding in the literature). We provide preliminary empirical evidence for one of the key drivers of our results:more eccentric products have higher probability of return conditional on purchase. In light of our analyticalfindings and managerial insights, we conclude that retailers should take their return policies into accountwhen merchandising.

Health care provider choice in the case of patient-initiated contacts. An extended version of discrete choice of model demand

This paper analyzes the nature of health care provider choice inthe case of patient-initiated contacts, with special reference toa National Health Service setting, where monetary prices are zeroand general practitioners act as gatekeepers to publicly financedspecialized care. We focus our attention on the factors that mayexplain the continuously increasing use of hospital emergencyvisits as opposed to other provider alternatives. An extendedversion of a discrete choice model of demand for patient-initiatedcontacts is presented, allowing for individual and town residencesize differences in perceived quality (preferences) betweenalternative providers and including travel and waiting time asnon-monetary costs. Results of a nested multinomial logit model ofprovider choice are presented. Individual choice betweenalternatives considers, in a repeated nested structure, self-care,primary care, hospital and clinic emergency services. Welfareimplications and income effects are analyzed by computingcompensating variations, and by simulating the effects of userfees by levels of income. Results indicate that compensatingvariation per visit is higher than the direct marginal cost ofemergency visits, and consequently, emergency visits do not appearas an inefficient alternative even for non-urgent conditions.

Association of different lipid measures for atherogenic lipid fractions and risk of coronary events in patients receiving combination antiretroviral therapy: the Swiss HIV Cohort Study

Background: Evidence for a better performance of different highly atherogenic versus traditional lipid parameters for coronary heart disease (CHD) risk prediction is conflicting. We investigated the association of the ratios of sma11 dense low density lipoprotein(LDL)/apoplipoprotein A, aolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol and CHD events in patients on combination antiretroviral therapy (cART).Methods: Case control study nested into the Swiss HIV Cohort Study: for each cART-treated patient with a first coronary event between April 1, 2000 and July 31, 2008 (case) we selected four control patients (1) that were without coronary events until the date of the event of the index case, (2) had a plasma sample within ±30 days of the sample date of the respective case, (3) received cART and (4) were then matched for age, gender and smoking status. Lipoproteins were measured by ultracentrifugation. Conditional logistic regression models were used to estimate the independent effects of different lipid ratios and the occurrence of coronary events.Results: In total, 98 cases (19 fatal myocardial infarctions [MI] and 79 non-fatal coronary events [53 definite MIs, 15 possible MIs and 11 coronary angioplasties or bypassesJ) were matched with 392 controls. Cases were more often injecting drug users, less likely to be virologically suppressed and more often on abacavir-containing regimens. In separa te multivariable models of total cholesterol, triglycerides, HDL-cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, abdominal obesity, diabetes and family history of CHD, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B were each statistically significantly associated with CHD events (for 1 mg/dl increase: odds ratio [OR] 1.05, 95% CI 1.00-1.11 and 1.15, 95% CI 1.01-1.31, respectively), but the ratiosof small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.26, 95% CI 0.95-1.67), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and HDL-cholesterol! total cholesterol (OR 0.99 95% CI 0.98-1.00) were not. Following adjustment for HIV related and cART variables these associations were weakened in each model: apolipoprotein B (OR 1.27, 95% CI 1.00-1.30), sd-LDL (OR 1.04, 95% CI 0.99-1.20), small dense-LDLlapolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.17, 95% CI 0.87-1.58), apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I (OR 1.02, 95% CI 0.97-1.07) and total cholesterolJHDL- cholesterol (OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.99-1.00).Conclusions: In patients receiving cART, small dense-LDL and apolipoprotein B showed the strongest associations with CHD events in models controlling for traditional CHD risk factors including total cholesterol and triglycerides. Adding small dense LDLlapoplipoprotein A-l, apolipoprotein B/apolipoprotein A-I and total cholesterol! HDL-cholesterol ratios did not further improve models of lipid parameters and associations of increased risk for CHD events.

Revenue management under general discrete choice model of consumer behavior

Customer choice behavior, such as 'buy-up' and 'buy-down', is an importantphe-nomenon in a wide range of industries. Yet there are few models ormethodologies available to exploit this phenomenon within yield managementsystems. We make some progress on filling this void. Specifically, wedevelop a model of yield management in which the buyers' behavior ismodeled explicitly using a multi-nomial logit model of demand. Thecontrol problem is to decide which subset of fare classes to offer ateach point in time. The set of open fare classes then affects the purchaseprobabilities for each class. We formulate a dynamic program todetermine the optimal control policy and show that it reduces to a dynamicnested allocation policy. Thus, the optimal choice-based policy caneasily be implemented in reservation systems that use nested allocationcontrols. We also develop an estimation procedure for our model based onthe expectation-maximization (EM) method that jointly estimates arrivalrates and choice model parameters when no-purchase outcomes areunobservable. Numerical results show that this combined optimization-estimation approach may significantly improve revenue performancerelative to traditional leg-based models that do not account for choicebehavior.

Altruism, equity and reciprocity in a gift-exchange experiment: An encompassing approach

Considerable experimental evidence suggests that non-pecuniary motivesmust be addressed when modeling behavior in economic contexts. Recentmodels of non-pecuniary motives can be classified as either altruism-based, equity-based, or reciprocity-based. We estimate and compareleading approaches in these categories, using experimental data. Wethen offer a flexible approach that nests the above three approaches,thereby allowing for nested hypothesis testing and for determiningthe relative strength of each of the competing theories. In addition,the encompassing approach provides a functional form for utility in different settings without the restrictive nature of the approaches nested within it. Using this flexible form for nested tests, we findthat intentional reciprocity, distributive concerns, and altruisticconsiderations all play a significant role in players' decisions.