Risk Prediction for Epithelial Ovarian Cancer in 11 United States-Based Case-Control Studies: Incorporation of Epidemiologic Risk Factors and 17 Confirmed Genetic Loci.

Previously developed models for predicting absolute risk of invasive epithelial ovarian cancer have included a limited number of risk factors and have had low discriminatory power (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) < 0.60). Because of this, we developed and internally validated a relative risk prediction model that incorporates 17 established epidemiologic risk factors and 17 genome-wide significant single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) using data from 11 case-control studies in the United States (5,793 cases; 9,512 controls) from the Ovarian Cancer Association Consortium (data accrued from 1992 to 2010). We developed a hierarchical logistic regression model for predicting case-control status that included imputation of missing data. We randomly divided the data into an 80% training sample and used the remaining 20% for model evaluation. The AUC for the full model was 0.664. A reduced model without SNPs performed similarly (AUC = 0.649). Both models performed better than a baseline model that included age and study site only (AUC = 0.563). The best predictive power was obtained in the full model among women younger than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.714); however, the addition of SNPs increased the AUC the most for women older than 50 years of age (AUC = 0.638 vs. 0.616). Adapting this improved model to estimate absolute risk and evaluating it in prospective data sets is warranted.

Threat Analysis of BlackEnergy Malware for Synchrophasor based Real-time Control and Monitoring in Smart Grid

The BlackEnergy malware targeting critical infrastructures has a long history. It evolved over time from a simple DDoS platform to a quite sophisticated plug-in based malware. The plug-in architecture has a persistent malware core with easily installable attack specific modules for DDoS, spamming, info-stealing, remote access, boot-sector formatting etc. BlackEnergy has been involved in several high profile cyber physical attacks including the recent Ukraine power grid attack in December 2015. This paper investigates the evolution of BlackEnergy and its cyber attack capabilities. It presents a basic cyber attack model used by BlackEnergy for targeting industrial control systems. In particular, the paper analyzes cyber threats of BlackEnergy for synchrophasor based systems which are used for real-time control and monitoring functionalities in smart grid. Several BlackEnergy based attack scenarios have been investigated by exploiting the vulnerabilities in two widely used synchrophasor communication standards: (i) IEEE C37.118 and (ii) IEC 61850-90-5. Specifically, the paper addresses reconnaissance, DDoS, man-in-the-middle and replay/reflection attacks on IEEE C37.118 and IEC 61850-90-5. Further, the paper also investigates protection strategies for detection and prevention of BlackEnergy based cyber physical attacks.

Fuzzy logic-based implicit authentication for mobile access control

In order to address the increasing compromise of user privacy on mobile devices, a Fuzzy Logic based implicit authentication scheme is proposed in this paper. The proposed scheme computes an aggregate score based on selected features and a threshold in real-time based on current and historic data depicting user routine. The tuned fuzzy system is then applied to the aggregated score and the threshold to determine the trust level of the current user. The proposed fuzzy-integrated implicit authentication scheme is designed to: operate adaptively and completely in the background, require minimal training period, enable high system accuracy while provide timely detection of abnormal activity. In this paper, we explore Fuzzy Logic based authentication in depth. Gaussian and triangle-based membership functions are investigated and compared using real data over several weeks from different Android phone users. The presented results show that our proposed Fuzzy Logic approach is a highly effective, and viable scheme for lightweight real-time implicit authentication on mobile devices.

Geometric versus Model Predictive Control based guidance algorithms for fixed-wing UAVs in the presence of very strong wind fields.

The recent years have witnessed increased development of small, autonomous fixed-wing Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs). In order to unlock widespread applicability of these platforms, they need to be capable of operating under a variety of environmental conditions. Due to their small size, low weight, and low speeds, they require the capability of coping with wind speeds that are approaching or even faster than the nominal airspeed. In this thesis, a nonlinear-geometric guidance strategy is presented, addressing this problem. More broadly, a methodology is proposed for the high-level control of non-holonomic unicycle-like vehicles in the presence of strong flowfields (e.g. winds, underwater currents) which may outreach the maximum vehicle speed. The proposed strategy guarantees convergence to a safe and stable vehicle configuration with respect to the flowfield, while preserving some tracking performance with respect to the target path. As an alternative approach, an algorithm based on Model Predictive Control (MPC) is developed, and a comparison between advantages and disadvantages of both approaches is drawn. Evaluations in simulations and a challenging real-world flight experiment in very windy conditions confirm the feasibility of the proposed guidance approach.

Shape-based compliance control for snake robots

I serpenti robot sono una classe di meccanismi iper-ridondanti che appartiene alla robotica modulare. Grazie alla loro forma snella ed allungata e all'alto grado di ridondanza possono muoversi in ambienti complessi con elevata agilità. L'abilità di spostarsi, manipolare e adattarsi efficientemente ad una grande varietà di terreni li rende ideali per diverse applicazioni, come ad esempio attività di ricerca e soccorso, ispezione o ricognizione. I robot serpenti si muovono nello spazio modificando la propria forma, senza necessità di ulteriori dispositivi quali ruote od arti. Tali deformazioni, che consistono in movimenti ondulatori ciclici che generano uno spostamento dell'intero meccanismo, vengono definiti andature. La maggior parte di esse sono ispirate al mondo naturale, come lo strisciamento, il movimento laterale o il movimento a concertina, mentre altre sono create per applicazioni specifiche, come il rotolamento o l'arrampicamento. Un serpente robot con molti gradi di libertà deve essere capace di coordinare i propri giunti e reagire ad ostacoli in tempo reale per riuscire a muoversi efficacemente in ambienti complessi o non strutturati. Inoltre, aumentare la semplicità e ridurre il numero di controllori necessari alla locomozione alleggerise una struttura di controllo che potrebbe richiedere complessità per ulteriori attività specifiche. L'obiettivo di questa tesi è ottenere un comportamento autonomo cedevole che si adatti alla conformazione dell'ambiente in cui il robot si sta spostando, accrescendo le capacità di locomozione del serpente robot. Sfruttando la cedevolezza intrinseca del serpente robot utilizzato in questo lavoro, il SEA Snake, e utilizzando un controllo che combina cedevolezza attiva ad una struttura di coordinazione che ammette una decentralizzazione variabile del robot, si dimostra come tre andature possano essere modificate per ottenere una locomozione efficiente in ambienti complessi non noti a priori o non modellabili.

Spatiotemporal control over the co-conformational switching in pH-responsive flavylium-based multistate pseudorotaxanes

A multistate molecular dyad containing flavylium and viologen units was synthesized and the pH dependent thermodynamics of the network completely characterized by a variety of spectroscopic techniques such as NMR, UV-vis and stopped-flow. The flavylium cation is only stable at acidic pH values. Above pH ≈ 5 the hydration of the flavylium leads to the formation of the hemiketal followed by ring-opening tautomerization to give the cis-chalcone. Finally, this last species isomerizes to give the trans-chalcone. For the present system only the flavylium cation and the trans-chalcone species could be detected as being thermodynamically stable. The hemiketal and the cis-chalcone are kinetic intermediates with negligible concentrations at the equilibrium. All stable species of the network were found to form 1 : 1 and 2 : 1 host : guest complexes with cucurbit[7]uril (CB7) with association constants in the ranges 10(5)-10(8) M(-1) and 10(3)-10(4) M(-1), respectively. The 1 : 1 complexes were particularly interesting to devise pH responsive bistable pseudorotaxanes: at basic pH values (≈12) the flavylium cation interconverts into the deprotonated trans-chalcone in a few minutes and under these conditions the CB7 wheel was found to be located around the viologen unit. A decrease in pH to values around 1 regenerates the flavylium cation in seconds and the macrocycle is translocated to the middle of the axle. On the other hand, if the pH is decreased to 6, the deprotonated trans-chalcone is neutralized to give a metastable species that evolves to the thermodynamically stable flavylium cation in ca. 20 hours. By taking advantage of the pH-dependent kinetics of the trans-chalcone/flavylium interconversion, spatiotemporal control of the molecular organization in pseudorotaxane systems can be achieved.

“Enjoy your baby” Internet-based CBT for mothers with babies: a feasibility randomised control trial

Background: Postnatal depression is a global health problem with lasting effects on the family. Government policy is focussed on early intervention and increasing access to psychological therapies. There is a growing evidence base for the use of computerised CBT packages and this study investigated the feasibility of a CBT-based self-help internet intervention for new mothers. Objective: To assess the ability to recruit mothers, deliver an internet course, obtain follow-up data and evaluate what mothers think of the course. Design: A feasibility randomised control design was used to compare a waiting list control group (delayed access= DA) to the Enjoy Your Baby course (immediate access= IA). Measures were administered at baseline and 8 week follow-up. Methods: Adverts were placed in the Metro freesheet, on charity web pages, on social media, posters were put up in the community, and leaflets were handed out at mother and baby groups. Participants had to be 18 years old or over with a child less than 18 months old. The IA arm was given access to the course straight away. After 8 weeks all participants were asked to recomplete the original measures and those in the IA arm also gave feedback on the course. Participants in the DA arm were given access after recompleting the questionnaires. Due to a lack of follow-up data a small discussion group was conducted. Intervention: The course contains 4 core modules including helping mothers understand why they feel the way they do and helping them build closeness to their babies. Additional modules, worksheets and homework tasks were available. The DA group were given a list of additional support resources and services, and encouraged to seek additional help if required. All participants received weekly automated emails for 12 weeks as they worked through the course. It was not possible to deliver individualised support. 34 Results: Despite using a number of recruitment strategies, recruitment was lower and slower than anticipated, and attrition was high. 41 women, primarily recruited via the internet, were randomised (IA n=21, DA n=20). No significant differences were observed between participants in either arm at baseline and no statistically significant differences were identified when the demographics and baseline measures of participants who logged-on to the course were compared to those who did not, or when participants who completed follow-up measures were compared to those who did not. Pre and post intervention scores on the EPDS approached statistical significance (P=.059, r=.444) favouring the intervention arm. The discussion group suggested strengths of the course and recommended areas for improvement, including making the course more mobile friendly. Conclusion: Internet interventions show promise; however it is difficult to recruit mothers, engagement is low and attrition high. A number of recommendations are made and a further pilot or an internal pilot of a larger substantive study should be conducted to confirm recruitment and retention. Trial ID: ISRCTN90927910.

Quality control of gamma irradiated dwarf mallow (Malva neglecta Wallr.) based on color, organic acids, total phenolics and antioxidant parameters

This study addresses the effects of gamma irradiation (1, 5 and 8 kGy) on color, organic acids, total phenolics, total flavonoids, and antioxidant activity of dwarf mallow (Malva neglecta Wallr.). Organic acids were analyzed by ultra fast liquid chromatography (UFLC) coupled to a photodiode array (PDA) detector. Total phenolics and flavonoids were measured by the Folin-Ciocalteu and aluminium chloride colorimetric methods, respectively. The antioxidant activity was evaluated based on the DPPH(•) scavenging activity, reducing power, β-carotene bleaching inhibition and thiobarbituric acid reactive substances (TBARS) formation inhibition. Analyses were performed in the non-irradiated and irradiated plant material, as well as in decoctions obtained from the same samples. The total amounts of organic acids and phenolics recorded in decocted extracts were always higher than those found in the plant material or hydromethanolic extracts, respectively. The DPPH(•) scavenging activity and reducing power were also higher in decocted extracts. The assayed irradiation doses affected differently the organic acids profile. The levels of total phenolics and flavonoids were lower in the hydromethanolic extracts prepared from samples irradiated at 1 kGy (dose that induced color changes) and in decocted extracts prepared from those irradiated at 8 kGy. The last samples also showed a lower antioxidant activity. In turn, irradiation at 5 kGy favored the amounts of total phenolics and flavonoids. Overall, this study contributes to the understanding of the effects of irradiation in indicators of dwarf mallow quality, and highlighted the decoctions for its antioxidant properties.

H-infinity control design for time-delay linear systems: a rational transfer function based approach

The aim of this paper is to present new results on H-infinity control synthesis for time-delay linear systems. We extend the use of a finite order LTI system, called comparison system to H-infinity analysis and design. Differently from what can be viewed as a common feature of other control design methods available in the literature to date, the one presented here treats time-delay systems control design with classical numeric routines based on Riccati equations arisen from H-infinity theory. The proposed algorithm is simple, efficient and easy to implement. Some examples illustrating state and output feedback design are solved and discussed in order to put in evidence the most relevant characteristic of the theoretical results. Moreover, a practical application involving a 3-DOF networked control system is presented.

Safety and risk factors for difficult endoscopist-directed ERCP sedation in daily practice: a hospital-based case-control study

Background: There are limited data concerning endoscopist-directed endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography deep sedation. The aim of this study was to establish the safety and risk factors for difficult sedation in daily practice. Patients and methods: Hospital-based, frequency matched case-control study. All patients were identified from a database of 1,008 patients between 2014 and 2015. The cases were those with difficult sedations. This concept was defined based on the combination of the receipt of high-doses of midazolam or propofol, poor tolerance, use of reversal agents or sedation-related adverse events. The presence of different factors was evaluated to determine whether they predicted difficult sedation. Results: One-hundred and eighty-nine patients (63 cases, 126 controls) were included. Cases were classified in terms of high-dose requirements (n = 35, 55.56%), sedation-related adverse events (n = 14, 22.22%), the use of reversal agents (n = 13, 20.63%) and agitation/discomfort (n = 8, 12.7%). Concerning adverse events, the total rate was 1.39%, including clinically relevant hypoxemia (n = 11), severe hypotension (n = 2) and paradoxical reactions to midazolam (n = 1). The rate of hypoxemia was higher in patients under propofol combined with midazolam than in patients with propofol alone (2.56% vs. 0.8%, p < 0.001). Alcohol consumption (OR: 2.674 [CI 95%: 1.098-6.515], p = 0.030), opioid consumption (OR: 2.713 [CI 95%: 1.096-6.716], p = 0.031) and the consumption of other psychoactive drugs (OR: 2.015 [CI 95%: 1.017-3.991], p = 0.045) were confirmed to be independent risk factors for difficult sedation. Conclusions: Endoscopist-directed deep sedation during endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography is safe. The presence of certain factors should be assessed before the procedure to identify patients who are high-risk for difficult sedation.

Agents and SCT based self* control architecture for production systems

Otto-von-Guericke-Universität Magdeburg, Fakultät für Maschinenbau, Dissertation, 2016

Gesture based IoT light control for smart clothing

In this paper, a smart wireless wristband is proposed. The potential of innovative gesture based interactivity with connected lighting solutions is reviewed. The solution is intended to offer numerous benefits, in terms of ease of use, and enhanced dynamic interactive functionality. A comparative analysis will be carried out between this work and existing solutions. The evolution of lighting and gesture controls will be discussed and an overview of alternative applications will be provided, as part of the critical analysis.

Semi-implicit finite strain constitutive integration and mixed strain/stress control based on intermediate configurations

A new semi-implicit stress integration algorithm for finite strain plasticity (compatible with hyperelas- ticity) is introduced. Its most distinctive feature is the use of different parameterizations of equilibrium and reference configurations. Rotation terms (nonlinear trigonometric functions) are integrated explicitly and correspond to a change in the reference configuration. In contrast, relative Green–Lagrange strains (which are quadratic in terms of displacements) represent the equilibrium configuration implicitly. In addition, the adequacy of several objective stress rates in the semi-implicit context is studied. We para- metrize both reference and equilibrium configurations, in contrast with the so-called objective stress integration algorithms which use coinciding configurations. A single constitutive framework provides quantities needed by common discretization schemes. This is computationally convenient and robust, as all elements only need to provide pre-established quantities irrespectively of the constitutive model. In this work, mixed strain/stress control is used, as well as our smoothing algorithm for the complemen- tarity condition. Exceptional time-step robustness is achieved in elasto-plastic problems: often fewer than one-tenth of the typical number of time increments can be used with a quantifiable effect in accuracy. The proposed algorithm is general: all hyperelastic models and all classical elasto-plastic models can be employed. Plane-stress, Shell and 3D examples are used to illustrate the new algorithm. Both isotropic and anisotropic behavior is presented in elasto-plastic and hyperelastic examples.

Real-Time Engine Diagnostic and Control Based on Acoustic Emissions Analysis

Engine developers are putting more and more emphasis on the research of maximum thermal and mechanical efficiency in the recent years. Research advances have proven the effectiveness of downsized, turbocharged and direct injection concepts, applied to gasoline combustion systems, to reduce the overall fuel consumption while respecting exhaust emissions limits. These new technologies require more complex engine control units. The sound emitted from a mechanical system encloses many information related to its operating condition and it can be used for control and diagnostic purposes. The thesis shows how the functions carried out from different and specific sensors usually present on-board, can be executed, at the same time, using only one multifunction sensor based on low-cost microphone technology. A theoretical background about sound and signal processing is provided in chapter 1. In modern turbocharged downsized GDI engines, the achievement of maximum thermal efficiency is precluded by the occurrence of knock. Knock emits an unmistakable sound perceived by the human ear like a clink. In chapter 2, the possibility of using this characteristic sound for knock control propose, starting from first experimental assessment tests, to the implementation in a real, production-type engine control unit will be shown. Chapter 3 focus is on misfire detection. Putting emphasis on the low frequency domain of the engine sound spectrum, features related to each combustion cycle of each cylinder can be identified and isolated. An innovative approach to misfire detection, which presents the advantage of not being affected by the road and driveline conditions is introduced. A preliminary study of air path leak detection techniques based on acoustic emissions analysis has been developed, and the first experimental results are shown in chapter 4. Finally, in chapter 5, an innovative detection methodology, based on engine vibration analysis, that can provide useful information about combustion phase is reported.

Development and experimental validation of a knock induced damage model and real-time implementation of model-based strategies to control knock intensity in boosted gasoline engines

This PhD thesis reports the main activities carried out during the 3 years long “Mechanics and advanced engineering sciences” course, at the Department of Industrial Engineering of the University of Bologna. The research project title is “Development and analysis of high efficiency combustion systems for internal combustion engines” and the main topic is knock, one of the main challenges for boosted gasoline engines. Through experimental campaigns, modelling activity and test bench validation, 4 different aspects have been addressed to tackle the issue. The main path goes towards the definition and calibration of a knock-induced damage model, to be implemented in the on-board control strategy, but also usable for the engine calibration and potentially during the engine design. Ionization current signal capabilities have been investigated to fully replace the pressure sensor, to develop a robust on-board close-loop combustion control strategy, both in knock-free and knock-limited conditions. Water injection is a powerful solution to mitigate knock intensity and exhaust temperature, improving fuel consumption; its capabilities have been modelled and validated at the test bench. Finally, an empiric model is proposed to predict the engine knock response, depending on several operating condition and control parameters, including injected water quantity.