Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: conclusions from a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

Global wetlands are believed to be climate sensitive, and are the largest natural emitters of methane (CH4). Increased wetland CH4 emissions could act as a positive feedback to future warming. The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Inter-comparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) investigated our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding CH4 emissions. To ensure inter-comparability, we used a common experimental protocol driving all models with the same climate and carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. The WETCHIMP experiments were conducted for model equilibrium states as well as transient simulations covering the last century. Sensitivity experiments investigated model response to changes in selected forcing inputs (precipitation, temperature, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). Ten models participated, covering the spectrum from simple to relatively complex, including models tailored either for regional or global simulations. The models also varied in methods to calculate wetland size and location, with some models simulating wetland area prognostically, while other models relied on remotely sensed inundation datasets, or an approach intermediate between the two. Four major conclusions emerged from the project. First, the suite of models demonstrate extensive disagreement in their simulations of wetland areal extent and CH4 emissions, in both space and time. Simple metrics of wetland area, such as the latitudinal gradient, show large variability, principally between models that use inundation dataset information and those that independently determine wetland area. Agreement between the models improves for zonally summed CH4 emissions, but large variation between the models remains. For annual global CH4 emissions, the models vary by ±40% of the all-model mean (190 Tg CH4 yr−1). Second, all models show a strong positive response to increased atmospheric CO2 concentrations (857 ppm) in both CH4 emissions and wetland area. In response to increasing global temperatures (+3.4 °C globally spatially uniform), on average, the models decreased wetland area and CH4 fluxes, primarily in the tropics, but the magnitude and sign of the response varied greatly. Models were least sensitive to increased global precipitation (+3.9 % globally spatially uniform) with a consistent small positive response in CH4 fluxes and wetland area. Results from the 20th century transient simulation show that interactions between climate forcings could have strong non-linear effects. Third, we presently do not have sufficient wetland methane observation datasets adequate to evaluate model fluxes at a spatial scale comparable to model grid cells (commonly 0.5°). This limitation severely restricts our ability to model global wetland CH4 emissions with confidence. Our simulated wetland extents are also difficult to evaluate due to extensive disagreements between wetland mapping and remotely sensed inundation datasets. Fourth, the large range in predicted CH4 emission rates leads to the conclusion that there is both substantial parameter and structural uncertainty in large-scale CH4 emission models, even after uncertainties in wetland areas are accounted for.

Present state of global wetland extent and wetland methane modelling: methodology of a model inter-comparison project (WETCHIMP)

The Wetland and Wetland CH4 Intercomparison of Models Project (WETCHIMP) was created to evaluate our present ability to simulate large-scale wetland characteristics and corresponding methane (CH4) emissions. A multi-model comparison is essential to evaluate the key uncertainties in the mechanisms and parameters leading to methane emissions. Ten modelling groups joined WETCHIMP to run eight global and two regional models with a common experimental protocol using the same climate and atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) forcing datasets. We reported the main conclusions from the intercomparison effort in a companion paper (Melton et al., 2013). Here we provide technical details for the six experiments, which included an equilibrium, a transient, and an optimized run plus three sensitivity experiments (temperature, precipitation, and atmospheric CO2 concentration). The diversity of approaches used by the models is summarized through a series of conceptual figures, and is used to evaluate the wide range of wetland extent and CH4 fluxes predicted by the models in the equilibrium run. We discuss relationships among the various approaches and patterns in consistencies of these model predictions. Within this group of models, there are three broad classes of methods used to estimate wetland extent: prescribed based on wetland distribution maps, prognostic relationships between hydrological states based on satellite observations, and explicit hydrological mass balances. A larger variety of approaches was used to estimate the net CH4 fluxes from wetland systems. Even though modelling of wetland extent and CH4 emissions has progressed significantly over recent decades, large uncertainties still exist when estimating CH4 emissions: there is little consensus on model structure or complexity due to knowledge gaps, different aims of the models, and the range of temporal and spatial resolutions of the models.

Effect of cattle urine addition on the surface emissions and subsurface concentrations of greenhouse gases in a UK peat grassland

Grazing systems represent a substantial percentage of the global anthropogenic flux of nitrous oxide (N2O) as a result of nitrogen addition to the soil. The pool of available carbon that is added to the soil from livestock excreta also provides substrate for the production of carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4) by soil microorganisms. A study into the production and emission of CO2, CH4 and N2O from cattle urine amended pasture was carried out on the Somerset Levels and Moors, UK over a three-month period. Urine-amended plots (50 g N m−2) were compared to control plots to which only water (12 mg N m−2) was applied. CO2 emission peaked at 5200 mg CO2 m−2 d−1 directly after application. CH4 flux decreased to −2000 μg CH4 m−2 d−1 two days after application; however, net CH4 flux was positive from urine treated plots and negative from control plots. N2O emission peaked at 88 mg N2O m−2 d−1 12 days after application. Subsurface CH4 and N2O concentrations were higher in the urine treated plots than the controls. There was no effect of treatment on subsurface CO2 concentrations. Subsurface N2O peaked at 500 ppm 12 days after and 1200 ppm 56 days after application. Subsurface NO3− concentration peaked at approximately 300 mg N kg dry soil−1 12 days after application. Results indicate that denitrification is the key driver for N2O release in peatlands and that this production is strongly related to rainfall events and water-table movement. N2O production at depth continued long after emissions were detected at the surface. Further understanding of the interaction between subsurface gas concentrations, surface emissions and soil hydrological conditions is required to successfully predict greenhouse gas production and emission.

Diversity of condensed tannin structures affects rumen in vitro methane production in sainfoin (Onobrychis viciifolia) accessions

Sainfoin is a non-bloating temperate forage legume with a moderate-to-high condensed tannin (CT) content. This study investigated whether the diversity of sainfoin accessions in terms of CT structures and contents could be related to rumen in vitro gas and methane (CH4) production and fermentation characteristics. The aim was to identify promising accessions for future investigations. Accessions differed (P < 0·0001) in terms of total gas and CH4 productions. Fermentation kinetics (i.e. parameters describing the shape of the gas production curve and half-time gas production) for CH4 production were influenced by accession (P ≤ 0·038), but not by PEG. Accession, PEG and time affected (P < 0·001) CH4 production, but accession and PEG interaction showed only a tendency (P = 0·08). Increase in CH4 due to PEG addition was not related to CT content. Further analysis of the relationships among multiple traits (nutritional composition, CT structure and CH4 production) using principal component analysis (PCA) based on optimally weighted variables revealed differences among accessions. The first two principal component axes, PC1 (57·6%) and PC2 (18·4%), explained 76·0% of the total variation among accessions. Loading of biplots derived from both PCAs made it possible to establish a relationship between the ratio of prodelphinidin:procyanidin (PD:PC) tannins and CH4 production in some accessions. The PD:PC ratio seems to be an important source of variation that is negatively related to CH4 production. These results suggested that sainfoin accessions collected from across the world exhibited substantial variation in terms of their effects on rumen in vitro CH4 production, revealing some promising accessions for future investigations.

The 2013 hot, dry summer in Western Europe

The European summer of 2013 was marked by hot and dry conditions in Western Europe associated with a northward shifted Atlantic storm track and a positive phase of the SNAO. Model results suggest that, relative to a 1964–93 reference period, changes in SST/SIE explain 63% (±26%) of the area-averaged warming signal over Western Europe, with the remaining 37% (±29%) explained by the direct impact of changes in anthropogenic radiative forcings from GHG and aerosols. The results further suggest that the anomalous atmospheric circulation, and associated low rainfall, were also influenced both by changes in SST/SIE and by the direct impact of changes in radiative forcings; however, the magnitude of the forced signals in these variables is much less, relative to internal variability, than for surface air temperature. Further evidence suggests that changes in North Atlantic SST were likely an important factor in explaining the striking contrast between the European summers of 2013 and that of 2012. A major area for further work is to understand more completely the mechanisms that explain these influences.

Methane in the atmosphere of the transiting hot Neptune GJ436b?

We present an analysis of seven primary transit observations of the hot Neptune GJ436b at 3.6, 4.5, and 8 μm obtained with the Infrared Array Camera on the Spitzer Space Telescope. After correcting for systematic effects, we fitted the light curves using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo technique. Combining these new data with the EPOXI, Hubble Space Telescope, and ground-based V, I, H, and Ks published observations, the range 0.5-10 μm can be covered. Due to the low level of activity of GJ436, the effect of starspots on the combination of transits at different epochs is negligible at the accuracy of the data set. Representative climate models were calculated by using a three-dimensional, pseudospectral general circulation model with idealized thermal forcing. Simulated transit spectra of GJ436b were generated using line-by-line radiative transfer models including the opacities of the molecular species expected to be present in such a planetary atmosphere. A new, ab-initio-calculated, line list for hot ammonia has been used for the first time. The photometric data observed at multiple wavelengths can be interpreted with methane being the dominant absorption after molecular hydrogen, possibly with minor contributions from ammonia, water, and other molecules. No clear evidence of carbon monoxide and carbon dioxide is found from transit photometry. We discuss this result in the light of a recent paper where photochemical disequilibrium is hypothesized to interpret secondary transit photometric data. We show that the emission photometric data are not incompatible with the presence of abundant methane, but further spectroscopic data are desirable to confirm this scenario.

State-resolved gas-surface reactivity of methane in the symmetric C-H stretch vibration on Ni(100)

The state-resolved reactivity of CH4 in its totally symmetric C-H stretch vibration (�1) has been measured on a Ni(100) surface. Methane molecules were accelerated to kinetic energies of 49 and 63:5 kJ=mol in a molecular beam and vibrationally excited to �1 by stimulated Raman pumping before surface impact at normal incidence. The reactivity of the symmetric-stretch excited CH4 is about an order of magnitude higher than that of methane excited to the antisymmetric stretch (�3) reported by Juurlink et al. [Phys. Rev. Lett. 83, 868 (1999)] and is similar to that we have previously observed for the excitation of the first overtone (2�3). The difference between the state-resolved reactivity for �1 and �3 is consistent with predictions of a vibrationally adiabatic model of the methane reaction dynamics and indicates that statistical models cannot correctly describe the chemisorption of CH4 on nickel.

Determination of the absolute accuracy of UK chamber facilities used in measuring methane emissions from livestock

Respiration chambers are one of the primary sources of data on methane emissions from livestock. This paper describes the results from a coordinated set of chamber validation experiments which establishes the absolute accuracy of the methane emission rates measured by the chambers, and for the first time provides metrological traceability to international standards, assesses the impact of both analyser and chamber response times on measurement uncertainty and establishes direct comparability between measurements made across different facilities with a wide range of chamber designs. As a result of the validation exercise the estimated combined uncertainty associated with the overall capability across all facilities reduced from 25.7% (k = 2, 95% confidence) before the validation to 2.1% (k = 2, 95% confidence) when the validation results are applied to the facilities’ data.

Holocene variations in peatland methane cycling associated with the Asian summer monsoon system

Atmospheric methane concentrations decreased during the early to middle Holocene; however, the governing mechanisms remain controversial. Although it has been suggested that the mid-Holocene minimum methane emissions are associated with hydrological change, direct evidence is lacking. Here we report a new independent approach, linking hydrological change in peat sediments from the Tibetan Plateau to changes in archaeal diether concentrations and diploptene delta C-13 values as tracers for methanogenesis and methanotrophy, respectively. A minimum in inferred methanogenesis occurred during the mid-Holocene, which, locally, corresponds with the driest conditions of the Holocene, reflecting a minimum in Asian monsoon precipitation. The close coupling between precipitation and methanogenesis is validated by climate simulations, which also suggest a regionally widespread impact. Importantly, the minimum in methanogenesis is associated with a maximum in methanotrophy. Therefore, methane emissions in the Tibetan Plateau region were apparently lower during the mid-Holocene and partially controlled by interactions of large-scale atmospheric circulation.

Root elongation rate is correlated with the length of the bare root apex of maize and lupin roots despite contrasting responses of root growth to compact and dry soils

Background We investigated interacting effects of matric potential and soil strength on root elongation of maize and lupin, and relations between root elongation rates and the length of bare (hairless) root apex. Methods Root elongation rates and the length of bare root apexwere determined formaize and lupin seedlings in sandy loam soil of various matric potentials (−0.01 to −1.6 MPa) and bulk densities (0.9 to 1.5 Mg m−3). Results Root elongation rates slowed with both decreasing matric potential and increasing penetrometer resistance. Root elongation of maize slowed to 10 % of the unimpeded rate when penetrometer resistance increased to 2 MPa, whereas lupin elongated at about 40 % of the unimpeded rate. Maize root elongation rate was more sensitive to changes in matric potential in loosely packed soil (penetrometer resistances <1 MPa) than lupin. Despite these differing responses, root elongation rate of both species was linearly correlated with length of the bare root apex (r2 0.69 to 0.97). Conclusion Maize root elongation was more sensitive to changes in matric potential and mechanical impedance than lupin. Robust linear relationships between elongation rate and length of bare apex suggest good potential for estimating root elongation rates for excavated roots.

Stability of probiotic Lactobacillus plantarum in dry microcapsules under accelerated storage conditions

This study investigated the stability of freeze dried and fluid bed dried alginate microcapsules coated with chitosan containing model probiotic bacteria, Lactobacillus plantarum, during storage for up to 45 days at different water activities (0.11, 0.23, 0.40 and 0.70) and temperatures (4, 30 and 37 °C). The loss in cell viability was around 0.8 log in the case of fluid bed drying and around 1.3 in the case of freeze drying, with the former method resulting in dried capsules of smaller size (~ 1 mm vs 1.3 mm), more irregular shape, and with a rougher surface. In both cases, the water activity and water content were less than 0.25 and 10% w/w, respectively, which favours high storage stability. The storage stability studies demonstrated that as the water activity and temperature decreased the survival of the dried encapsulated cells increased. Considerably better survival was observed for fluid bed dried encapsulated cells compared to freeze dried encapsulated cells and freeze dried free cells with 10% sucrose (control), and in some cases, e.g. at 4 and 30 °C at water activities of 0.11, 0.23 and 0.40, there was more than 1 log difference after 45 days, with concentrations higher than 108 CFU/g after 45 days of storage. The results indicate that fluid bed drying is an effective and efficient manufacturing method to produce probiotic containing capsules with enhanced storage stability.

Evaluating nitrogen utilization efficiency of nonpregnant dry cows offered solely fresh cut grass at maintenance levels

The present study aimed to identify key parameters influencing N utilization and develop prediction equations for manure N output (MN), feces N output (FN), and urine N output (UN). Data were obtained under a series of digestibility trials with nonpregnant dry cows fed fresh grass at maintenance level. Grass was cut from 8 different ryegrass swards measured from early to late maturity in 2007 and 2008 (2 primary growth, 3 first regrowth, and 3 second regrowth) and from 2 primary growth early maturity swards in 2009. Each grass was offered to a group of 4 cows and 2 groups were used in each of the 8 swards in 2007 and 2008 for daily measurements over 6 wk; the first group (first 3 wk) and the second group (last 3 wk) assessed early and late maturity grass, respectively. Average values of continuous 3-d data of N intake (NI) and output for individual cows ( = 464) and grass nutrient contents ( = 116) were used in the statistical analysis. Grass N content was positively related to GE and ME contents but negatively related to grass water-soluble carbohydrates (WSC), NDF, and ADF contents ( < 0.01), indicating that accounting for nutrient interrelations is a crucial aspect of N mitigation. Significantly greater ratios of UN:FN, UN:MN, and UN:NI were found with increased grass WSC contents and ratios of N:WSC, N:digestible OM in total DM (DOMD), and N:ME ( < 0.01). Greater NI, animal BW, and grass N contents and lower grass WSC, NDF, ADF, DOMD, and ME concentrations were significantly associated with greater MN, FN, and UN ( < 0.05). The present study highlighted that using grass lower in N and greater in fermentable energy in animals fed solely fresh grass at maintenance level can improve N utilization, reduce N outputs, and shift part of N excretion toward feces rather than urine. These outcomes are highly desirable in mitigation strategies to reduce nitrous oxide emissions from livestock. Equations predicting N output from BW and grass N content explained a similar amount of variability as using NI and grass chemical composition (excluding DOMD and ME), implying that parameters easily measurable in practice could be used for estimating N outputs. In a research environment, where grass DOMD and ME are likely to be available, their use to predict N outputs is highly recommended because they strongly improved of the equations in the current study.