793 resultados para long-run dynamics


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The Indian author Rabindranath Tagore was received like royalty during his visits to the West after winning the Nobel Prize in 1913. Dreams of foreign cultures offered a retreat from a complicated age. In a time when the West appeared to be living under threat of disintegration and when industrialism seemed like a cul-de-sac, he appeared to offer the promise of a return to a lost paradise, a spiritual abode that is superior to the restless Western culture. However, Tagore’s popularity faded rapidly, most notably in England, the main target of his criticism. Soon after Tagore had won the Nobel Prize, the English became indignant at Tagore’s anti-colonial attitude.Tagore visited Sweden in 1921 and 1926 and was given a warm reception. His visits to Sweden can be seen as an episode in a longer chain of events. It brought to life old conceptions of India as the abode of spirituality on earth. Nevertheless, interest in him was a relatively short-lived phenomenon in Sweden. Only a few of his admirers in Sweden appreciated the complexity of Tagore’s achievements. His “anathema of mammonism”, as a Swedish newspaper called it, was not properly received. After a steady stream of translations his popularity flagged towards the end of the 1920s and then almost disappeared entirely. Tagores visits in Sweden gave an indication that India was on the way to liberate itself from its colonial legacy, which consequently contributed to the waning of his popularity in the West. In the long run, his criticism of the drawbacks in the western world became too obvious to maintain permanent interest. The Russian author Fyodor Dostoyevskiy’s Crime and Punishment (1866) has enticed numerous interpretations such as the purely biographical approach. In the nervous main character of the novel, the young student Raskolnikov, one easily recognizes Dostoyevskiy himself. The novel can also be seen as a masterpiece of realistic fiction. It gives a broad picture of Saint Petersburg, a metropolis in decay. Crime and Punishment can also be seen as one of the first examples of a modern psychological novel, since it is focused on the inner drama of its main character, the young student Raskolnikov. His actions seem to be governed by mere coincidences, dreams and the spur of the moment. it seems fruitful to study the novel from a psychoanalytical approach. In his book Raskolnikov: the way of the divided towards unity in Crime and Punishment (1982), a Swedish scholar, Owe Wikström, has followed this line of interpretation all the way to Freud’s disciple C G Jung. In addition to this, the novel functions as an exciting crime story. To a large extent it is Viktor Sjklovskij and other Russian formalists from the 1920s and onwards who have taught the western audience to understand the specific nature of the crime story. The novel could be seen as a story about religious conversion. Like Lasarus in the Bible (whose story attracts a lot of attention in the novel) Raskolnikov is awakened from the dead, and together with Sonja he starts a completely new life. The theme of conversion has a special meaning for Dostoyevskiy. For him the conversion meant an acknowledgement of the specific nature of Russia itself. Crime and punishment mirrors the conflict between traditional Russian values and western influences that has been obvious in Russia throughout the history of the country. The novel reflects a dialogue that still continues in Russian society. The Russian literary historian Mikhail Bakhtin, who is probably the most famous interpreter of the works of Dostoyevskiy, has become famous precisely by emphasizing the importance of dialogues in novels like Crime and Punishment. According to Bakhtin, this novel is characterized by its multitude of voices. Various ideas are confronted with each other, and each one of them is personified by one of the characters in the novel. The author has resigned from his position as the superior monitor of the text, and he leaves it to the reader to decide what interpretation is the correct one..The aim of the present study is thus to analyze the complex reactions in the west to Tagore’s visits in Sweden and to Fyodor Dostoyevskiys novel Crime and Punishment.. This leads to more general conclusions on communication between cultures.

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The main objective of the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” is by the use of a case study test the MFD™-method (Erixon G. , 1998) combined with PMM in a product development project. (Henceforth called MFD™/PMM-method). The MFD™/PMM-method used for documenting and controlling a product development project has since it was introduced been used in several industries and projects. The method has been proved to be a good way of working with the early stages of product development, however, there are almost only projects carried out on large industries which means that there are very few references to how the MFD™/PMM-method works in a small corporation. Therefore, was the case study in the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” carried out in a small corporation to find out whether the MFD™/PMM-method also can be applied and used in such a corporation.The PMM was proposed in a paper presented at Delft University of Technology in Holland 1998 by the author and Gunnar Erixon. (See appended paper C: The chart of modular function deployment.) The title “The chart of modular function deployment” was later renamed as PMM, Product Management Map. (Sweden PreCAD AB, 2000). The PMM consists of a QFD-matrix linked to MIM (Module Indication Matrix) via a coupling matrix which makes it possible to make an unbroken chain from the customer domain to the designed product/modules. The PMM makes it easy to correct omissions made in creating new products and modules.In the thesis “Conceptual Product Development in Small Corporations” the universal MFD™/PMM-method has been adapted by the author to three models of product development; original-, evolutionary- and incremental development.The evolutionary adapted MFD™/PMM-method was tested as a case study at Atlings AB in the community Ockelbo. Atlings AB is a small corporation with a total number of 50 employees and an annual turnover of 9 million €. The product studied at the corporation was a steady rest for supporting long shafts in turning. The project team consisted of management director, a sales promoter, a production engineer, a design engineer and a workshop technician, the author as team leader and a colleague from Dalarna University as discussion partner. The project team has had six meetings.The project team managed to use MFD™ and to make a complete PMM of the studied product. There were no real problems occurring in the project work, on the contrary the team members worked very well in the group, having ideas how to improve the product. Instead, the challenge for a small company is how to work with the MFD™/PMM-method in the long run! If the MFD™/PMM-method is to be a useful tool for the company it needs to be used continuously and that requires financial and personnel resources. One way for the company to overcome the probable lack of recourses regarding capital and personnel is to establish a good cooperation with a regional university or a development centre.

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Due to health problems and the negative externalities associated with cigarette consumption, many governments try to discourage cigarette consumption by increasing its price through taxation. However, cigarette, like the other addictive goods, is viewed as that it is not sensitive to demand rules and the market forces. This study analyses the effect of price increase on cigarette consumption. We used Swedish time series data from 1970 to 2010. Our results reveal that though cigarette is addictive substance its demand is sensitive to changes in the price. Estimates from this study indicate short-run price-elasticity of -0.29 and the long run price elasticity of -0.47.

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This thesis focuses on identifying hindrances of achieving a sustainable tourism development on a base of a World Heritage Site. Using a case study of the World Heritage Site Falun Great Copper Mountain, the thesis assesses the situational context by using qualitative methods. Five semi- structured interviews with influential stakeholders were conducted to get an inside view of the current situation and to identify site-specific issues. The thesis identifies a number of factors that determine the successful implementation of measures leading towards sustainable tourism in the long-run; the most important being the lack of clear guidelines for the whole destination and no holistic planning approach within the municipality. The thesis concludes that despite the increased pressures towards establishment of sustainable tourism, the concept remains challenging to operationalize for the World Heritage Site without frameworks and tools from UNESCO.

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This study aims to investigate the relation between foreign direct investment (FDI) and per capita gross domestic product (GDP) in Pakistan. The study is based on a basic Cobb-Douglas production function. Population over age 15 to 64 is used as a proxy for labor in the investigation. The other variables used are gross capital formation, technological gap and a dummy variable measuring among other things political stability. We find positive correlation between GDP per capita in Pakistan and two variables, FDI and population over age 15 to 64. The GDP gap (gap between GDP of USA and GDP of Pakistan) is negatively correlated with GDP per capita as expected. Political instability, economic crisis, wars and polarization in the society have no significant impact on GDP per capita in the long run.

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Unemployment as an unintended consequence of social assistance recipiency: results from a time-series analysis of aggregated population data Does the frequency of unemployment have a tendency to increase the number of social assistance recipients, or does the relationship work the other way around? This article utilizes Swedish annual data on aggregated unemployment and means-tested social assistance recipiency in the period 1946–1990 and proposes a multiple time-series approach based on vector error-correction modelling to establish the direction of influence. First, we show that rates of unemployment and receipt of social assistance is co-integrated. Second, we demonstrate that adjustments to the long-run equilibrium are made through adjustments of the unemployment. This indicates that the level of unemployment reacts to changes in rates of social assistance recipiency rather than vice versa. It is also shown that lagged changes in the level of unemployment do not predict changes in rates of social assistance recipients in short-term. Together these findings demonstrate that the number of social assistance recipients does increase the number of unemployed in a period characterized by low unemployment and high employment.

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In order to facilitate the development of agent-based software, several agent programming languages and architectures, have been created. Plans in these architectures are often self-contained procedures with an associated triggering event and a context condition, while any further information about the consequences of executing a plan is absent. However, agents designed using such an approach have limited flexibility at runtime, and rely on the designer’s ability to foresee all relevant situations an agent might have to handle. In order to overcome this limitation, we have created AgentSpeak(PL), an interpreter capable of performing state-space planning to generate new high-level plans. As the planning module creates new plans, the plan library is expanded, improving performance over time. However, for new plans to be useful in the long run, it is critical that the context condition associated with new plans is carefully generated. In this paper we describe a plan reuse technique aimed at improving an agent’s runtime performance by deriving optimal context conditions for new plans, allowing an agent to reuse generated plans as much as possible.

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Este trabalho de conclusão investiga o efeito da geração de estoques intermediários nos indicadores principais empregados na Teoria das Restrições (Ganho, Despesa Operacional e Inventário) em uma unidade industrial de processo produtivo de Propriedade contínuo, que emprega embalagens, matérias-primas obtidas em larga escala e cadeias logísticas de longo curso. Este tipo de indústria produz bens de consumo imediato, com pouca variabilidade, de modo “empurrado”. A principal conseqüência é a perda do sincronismo na cadeia logística, resultando em uma grande quantidade de estoques intermediários e custos crescentes, relacionados principalmente ao custo de manutenção destes estoques. Através dos cinco passos de focalização e das ferramentas lógicas da Teoria das Restrições, propõe-se uma alternativa gerencial, que inclui o algoritmo Tambor-Pulmão-Corda e insere a organização em um processo de melhoria contínua, cujos impactos são avaliados por simulação computacional. Através de técnicas estatísticas e software apropriados, constrói-se um modelo de simulação computacional baseado em dados reais de uma planta produtora de cimento. A partir deste modelo, diferentes cenários são testados, descobrindo-se a condição ótima. Chega-se a uma conclusão, considerando a mudança na política de geração de estoques intermediários e seus impactos na redução de custos e riscos.

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Our main goal in this paper was to measure how e¢ cient is risk sharing between countries. In order to do so, we have used a international risk sharIn this paper we re-analyze the question of the U.S. public debt sustainability by using a quantile autoregression model. This modeling allows for testing whether the behavior of U.S. public debt is asymmetric or not. Our results provide evidence of a band of sustainability. Outside this band, the U.S. public debt is unsustainable. We also nd scal policy to be adequate in the sense that occasional episodes in which the public debt moves out of the band do not pose a threat to long run sustainability.

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O tema central deste trabalho é a avaliação de riscos em estratégias de investimentos de longo prazo, onde a necessidade de um exemplo prático direcionou à aplicação de Asset Liability Models em fundos de pensão, mais especificamente, a planos de benefício definido. Com os instrumentos de análise apresentados, acreditamos que o investidor com um horizonte de retorno de longo prazo tenha uma percepção mais acurada dos riscos de mercado a que está exposto, permitindo uma seleção de carteiras mais adequada aos objetivos de gestão. Para tanto, a inclusão de variáveis de decisão que procuram quantificar os objetivos de gestão - indo além do modelo simplificado de média-variância - exerce papel de fundamental importância.

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Tolerância ao risco é fundamental quando se tomam decisões financeiras. No entanto, a avaliação da tolerância ao risco tem se baseado ao longo dos anos em diferentes metodologias, tais como julgamentos heurísticos e a teoria da utilidade esperada que tem como base a hipótese dos mercados eficientes. Foi dentro desta ótica que este trabalho se desenvolveu. O objetivo é analisar três diferentes questionários de avaliação ao risco que são na prática amplamente utilizados por consultores financeiros. Foi assumido para isso que os investidores são considerados racionais, conhecem e ordenam de forma lógica suas preferências, buscam maximizar a "utilidade" de suas escolhas, e conseguem atribuir com precisão probabilidades aos eventos futuros, quando submetidos a escolhas que envolvam incertezas. No entanto, em uma análise preliminar dos questionários, estes poderiam estar utilizando conceitos de behavioral finance para avaliarem a tolerância ao risco, ao invés de utilizarem somente a metodologia tradicional da teoria da utilidade esperada. Dessa forma tornou-se necessário o estudo dos conceitos de behavioral finance. O primeiro capítulo então trata dos aspectos psicológicos do investidor, procurando entender como este se comporta e como este forma suas preferências. Apesar do estudo assumir racionalidade nas decisões, se a teoria de behavioral estiver correta e os investidores apresentarem desvios a racionalidade, como a teoria prospectiva afirma, o questionário poderia ser o veículo ideal para identificar tais desvios, sendo possível então educar e orientar o indivíduo em suas escolhas financeiras, afim de maximizá-las. O capitulo dois coloca a análise dos questionários inserida no contexto da teoria moderna de finanças, falando das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo. O capítulo mostra de forma bem resumida e simplificada como o investidor maximiza a sua utilidade da riqueza. A idéia desse capítulo é entender como alguns julgamentos heurísticos assumidos na prática por consultores financeiros afetam as escolhas de portfólio e em quais condições esses julgamentos heurísticos são verdadeiros. Isso se torna importante pois os questionários mesclam medidas de risco com horizonte de investimentos do investidor. Estes questionários são utilizados para traçar uma política de investimentos completa para o investidor. Para cada perfil de risco encontrado a instituição traça um modelo de alocação de portfólio. O capítulo três trata da avaliação dos questionários em si tendo como base a teoria da utilidade esperada, os conceitos de behaviral finance e as lições tiradas das escolhas de portfólio para investidores de longo prazo.

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O objetivo da dissertação é avaliar o impacto da adoção do regime de metas na inércia da inflação. A inércia é analisada de acordo com procedimentos tradicionalmente adotados na literatura, através de modelos ARIMA. Em virtude das metas de inflação não serem imutáveis ao longo do tempo, propõe-se uma metodologia para se medir a inércia da taxa de inflação, onde esta possui dois componentes: a tendência e a parte transitória. A inércia da inflação será, então, medida pelo coeficiente com que a taxa de inflação converge para sua taxa de longo prazo.

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After more than forty years studying growth, there are two classes of growth models that have emerged: exogenous and endogenous growth models. Since both try to mimic the same set of long-run stylized facts, they are observationally equivalent in some respects. Our goals in this paper are twofold First, we discuss the time-series properties of growth models in a way that is useful for assessing their fit to the data. Second, we investigate whether these two models successfully conforms to U.S. post-war data. We use cointegration techniques to estimate and test long-run capital elasticities, exogeneity tests to investigate the exogeneity status of TFP, and Granger-causality tests to examine temporal precedence of TFP with respect to infrastructure expenditures. The empirical evidence is robust in confirming the existence of a unity long-run capital elasticity. The analysis of TFP reveals that it is not weakly exogenous in the exogenous growth model Granger-causality test results show unequivocally that there is no evidence that TFP for both models precede infrastructure expenditures not being preceded by it. On the contrary, we find some evidence that infras- tructure investment precedes TFP. Our estimated impact of infrastructure on TFP lay rougbly in the interval (0.19, 0.27).

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This paper contributes to the debate on whether the Brazilian public debt is sustainable or not in the long run by considering threshold effects on the Brazilian Budget Deficit. Using data from 1947 to 1999 and a threshold autoregressive model, we find evidence of delays in fiscal stabilization. As suggested in Alesina (1991), delayed stabilizations reflect the existence of political constraints blocking deficit cuts, which are relaxed only when the budget deficit reaches a sufficiently high level, deemed to be unsustainable. In particular, our results suggest that, in the absence of seignorage, only when the increase in the budget deficit reaches 1.74% of the GDP will fiscal authorities intervene to reduce the deficit. If seignorage is allowed, the threshold increases to 2.2%, suggesting that seignorage makes government more tolerant to fiscal imbalances.

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By mixing together inequalities based on cyclical variables, such as unemployment, and on structural variables, such as education, usual measurements of income inequality add objects of a di§erent economic nature. Since jobs are not acquired or lost as fast as education or skills, this aggreagation leads to a loss of relavant economic information. Here I propose a di§erent procedure for the calculation of inequality. The procedure uses economic theory to construct an inequality measure of a long-run character, the calculation of which can be performed, though, with just one set of cross-sectional observations. Technically, the procedure is based on the uniqueness of the invariant distribution of wage o§ers in a job-search model. Workers should be pre-grouped by the distribution of wage o§ers they see, and only between-group inequalities should be considered. This construction incorporates the fact that the average wages of all workers in the same group tend to be equalized by the continuous turnover in the job market.