Changes in use of types of tobacco products by pack sizes and price segments, prices paid and consumption following the introduction of plain packaging in Australia

Objectives: To describe changes among smokers in use of various types of tobacco products, reported prices paid and cigarette consumption following the standardisation of tobacco packaging in Australia.
Methods: National cross-sectional telephone surveys of adult smokers were conducted from April 2012 (6 months before transition to plain packaging (PP) to March 2014 (15 months afterwards). Multivariable logistics regression assessed changes in products, brands and pack types/sizes; multivariable linear regression examined changes in inflation-adjusted prices paid and reported cigarette consumption between the pre-PP and three subsequent periods – the transition phase, PP year 1 and PP post-tax (post a 12.5% tax increase in December 2013).
Results: The proposition of current smokers using roll-your-own (RYO) products fluctuated over the study period. Proportions using value brands of factory-made (FM) cigarettes increased from pre-PP (21.4%) to PP year 1 (25.5%; p=0.002) and PP post-tax (27.8%; p<0.001). Inflation-adjusted prices paid increased in the PP year 1 and PP post-tax phases; the largest increases were among premium FM brands, the smallest among value brands. Consumption did not change in PP year 1 among daily, regular or current smokers declined significantly in PP post-tax (mean=14.0, SE=0.33) compared to PP year 1 (mean=14.8, SE=0.17; p=0.037).
Conclusions: Introduction of PP was associated with an increase in use of value brands, likely due to increased numbers available and smaller increases in prices for value relative to premium brands. Reported consumption declined following the December 2013 tax increase.

Influence of price discounts and skill-building strategies on purchase and consumption of healthy food and beverages: outcomes of the Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Fiscal strategies are increasingly considered upstream nutrition promotion measures. However, few trials have investigated the effectiveness or cost effectiveness of pricing manipulations on diet in real-world settings. OBJECTIVE: We assessed the effects on fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchasing and consumption of a 20% price-reduction intervention, a tailored skills-based behavior-change intervention, and a combined intervention compared with a control condition. DESIGN: The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was a randomized controlled trial conducted over 3 mo [baseline (time 1) to postintervention (time 2) with a 6-mo follow-up (time 3)]. Female primary household shoppers in Melbourne, Australia, were randomly assigned to a 1) skill-building (n = 160), 2) price-reduction (n = 161), 3) combined skill-building and price-reduction (n = 160), or 4) control (n = 161) group. Supermarket transaction data and surveys were used to measure the following study outcomes: fruit, vegetable, and beverage purchases and self-reported fruit and vegetable consumption at each time point. RESULTS: At 3 mo (time 2), price reduction-alone participants purchased more total vegetables and frozen vegetables than did controls. Price reduction-alone and price reduction-plus-skill-building participants purchased more fruit than did controls. Relative to controls, in the price-reduction group, total vegetable consumption increased by 233 g/wk (3.1 servings or 15% more than at baseline), and fruit purchases increased by 364 g/wk (2.4 servings; 35% more than at baseline). Increases were not maintained 6 mo postintervention (time 3). Price reduction-alone participants showed a tendency for a slight increase in fruit consumption at time 2 (P = 0.09) that was maintained at time 3 (P = 0.014). No intervention improved purchases of bottled water or low-calorie beverages. CONCLUSIONS: A 20% price reduction in fruit and vegetables resulted in increased purchasing per household of 35% for fruit and 15% for vegetables over the price-reduction period. These findings show that price modifications can directly increase produce purchases. The Supermarket Healthy Eating for Life trial was registered at Current Controlled Trials Registration as ISRCTN39432901.

Lying about the price? Ultimatum bargaining with messages and imperfectly observed offers

We introduce the taxicab game, related to the ultimatum game and Gehrig et al.'s (2007) yes/no game. The proposer makes an offer, and simultaneously sends a cheap talk message indicating (possibly falsely) the amount of the offer. The responder observes the message with certainty and the offer with probability p before accepting or rejecting the offer. We investigate versions with p=. 0 and p=. 0.5 along with the ultimatum game as a baseline. Intuition and a model comprising both standard economic agents and others who dislike inequity, lies and lying provide clear predictions that our experimental results support. As the likelihood increases of offers being seen, the offers themselves increase, messages over-state them less, and responders are more likely to accept (even when the offer is unseen). Also, responders are more likely to accept after truthful messages than after lies or when no message is sent.

Stock price comovement: Evidence from India

We examine the extent to which stock prices comove in an emerging economy, India. We first document that stocks listed on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) comove. Further, we find that synchronicity is positively associated with growth and earnings volatility and negatively associated with business group affiliation and leverage.

Equity market price interactions between China and the other markets within the Chinese states equity markets

This study examines the cointegrating and long-term causal relationships of equity market prices in equity markets of Chinese states namely, Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Taiwan and Singapore. I cover the period between October 5, 1992 and March 20, 2006, taking into account both the Asian financial crisis and the opening-up of China’s equity markets in recent years. First, I analysis the cointegration by utilizing Johansen’s (1988) cointegration tests. I find that a long-term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been established among Shanghai, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Taiwanese markets and, to a lesser degree, between these markets and the Singapore market since 1998. Secondly, this study examines causality by exploring the bootstrapped Toda-Yamamoto non-causality tests. I find that there is strong evidence of a bi-directional causality between Shanghai and Shenzhen markets after 1998. Furthermore, I also find that there are more causal linkages between the Chinese states equity markets: two mainland Chinese markets, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and Singapore became more dependent on each other. The robustness of the above findings is confirmed by the use of a bootstrap test employed to test the validity of my results.

The economic significance of CDS price discovery

© 2015 Springer Science+Business Media New York Between 2005 and 2009, we document evident time-varying credit risk price discovery between the equity and credit default swap (CDS) markets for 174 US non-financial investment-grade firms. We test the economic significance of a simple portfolio strategy that utilizes fluctuation in CDS spreads as a trading signal to set stock positions, conditional on the CDS price discovery status of the reference entities. We show that a conditional portfolio strategy which updates the list of CDS-influenced firms over time, yields a substantively larger realized return net of transaction cost over the unconditional strategy. Furthermore, the conditional strategy’s Sharpe ratio outperforms a series of benchmark portfolios over the same trading period, including buy-and-hold, momentum and dividend yield strategies.

Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM) : uma aplicação ao mercado brasileiro de ações

Este trabalho tem por objetivo apresentar a fundamentação teórica e efetuar uma aplicação prática de uma das mais importantes descobertas no campo das finanças: o modelo de precificação de ativos de capital padrão, denominado de Capital Asset Price Model (CAPM). Na realização da aplicação prática, comparou-se a performance entre os retornos dos investimentos exigidos pelo referido modelo e os realmente obtidos. Foram analisadas cinco ações com a maior participação relativa na carteira teórica do Ibovespa e com retornos publicados de junho de 1998 a maio de 2001. Os dados foram obtidos da Economática da UFRGS e testados utilizando-se o Teste-t (duas amostras em par para médias) na ferramenta MS Excel. Os resultados foram tabelados e analisados, de onde se concluiu que, estatisticamente, com índice de confiança de 95%, não houve diferença de performance entre os retornos esperados e os realmente obtidos dos ativos objeto desta dissertação, no período estudado.

Are price limits on futures markets that cool? evidence from the brazilian merchantile & futures exchange

This paper investigates the impact of price limits on the Brazil- ian future markets using high frequency data. The aim is to identify whether there is a cool-off or a magnet effect. For that purpose, we examine a tick-by-tick data set that includes all contracts on the São Paulo stock index futures traded on the Brazilian Mercantile and Futures Exchange from January 1997 to December 1999. Our main finding is that price limits drive back prices as they approach the lower limit. There is a strong cool-off effect of the lower limit on the conditional mean, whereas the upper limit seems to entail a weak magnet effect on the conditional variance. We then build a trading strategy that accounts for the cool-off effect so as to demonstrate that the latter has not only statistical, but also economic signifi- cance. The resulting Sharpe ratio indeed is way superior to the buy-and-hold benchmarks we consider.

First-Price auction symmetric equlibria with a general distribution

In this paper I obtain the mixed strategy symmetric equilibria of the first-price auction for any distribution. The equilibrium is unique. The solution turns out to be a combination of absolutely continuous distributions case and the discrete distributions case.

Is there a price puzzle in Brazil? An application of Bias-Corrected Bootstrap

Using data from the United States, Japan, Germany , United Kingdom and France, Sims (1992) found that positive innovations to shortterm interest rates led to sharp, persistent increases in the price level. The result was conÖrmed by other authors and, as a consequence of its non-expectable nature, was given the name "price puzzle" by Eichenbaum (1992). In this paper I investigate the existence of a price puzzle in Brazil using the same type of estimation and benchmark identiÖcation scheme employed by Christiano et al. (2000). In a methodological improvement over these studies, I qualify the results with the construction of bias-corrected bootstrap conÖdence intervals. Even though the data does show the existence of a statistically signiÖcant price puzzle in Brazil, it lasts for only one quarter and is quantitatively immaterial

First-price auction symmetric equilibria with a general distribution

In this paper I obtain the mixed strategy symmetric equilibria of the first-price auction for any distribution. The equilibrium is unique. The solution turns out to be a combination of absolutely continuous distributions case and the discrete distributions case.

Purchasing power parity: the choice of price index

Looking closely at the PPP argument, it states that the currencies purchasing power should not change when comparing the same basket goods across countries, and these goods should all be tradable. Hence, if PPP is valid at all, it should be captured by the relative price indices that best Öts these two features. We ran a horse race among six di§erent price indices available from the IMF database to see which one would yield higher PPP evidence, and, therefore, better Öt the two features. We used RER proxies measured as the ratio of export unit values, wholesale prices, value added deáators, unit labor costs, normalized unit labor costs and consumer prices, for a sample of 16 industrial countries, with quarterly data from 1975 to 2002. PPP was tested using both the ADF and the DFGLS unit root test of the RER series. The RER measured as WPI ratios was the one for which PPP evidence was found for the larger number of countries: six out of sixteen when we use DF-GLS test with demeaned series. The worst measure of all was the RER based on the ratio of foreign CPIs and domestic WPI. No evidence of PPP at all was found for this measure.