A design for business intelligence service in demand driven supply chain management

This paper discusses the problems inherent within traditional supply chain management's forecast and inventory management processes arising when tackling demand driven supply chain. A demand driven supply chain management architecture developed by Orchestr8 Ltd., U.K. is described to demonstrate its advantages over traditional supply chain management. Within this architecture, a metrics reporting system is designed by adopting business intelligence technology that supports users for decision making and planning supply activities over supply chain health.

Power to the people: working-class demand for household power in 1930s Britain

The 1930s witnessed an intense struggle between gas and electricity suppliers for the working class market, where the incumbent utility—gas—was also a reasonably efficient (and cheaper) General Purpose Technology for most domestic uses. Local monopolies for each supplier boosted substitution effects between fuel types—as alternative fuels constituted the only local competition. Using newly-rediscovered returns from a major national household expenditure survey, we employ geographically-determined instrumental variables, more commonly used in the industrial organization literature, to show that gas provided a significant competitor, tempering electricity prices, while electricity demand was also responsive to marketing initiatives.

The demand for a healthy diet: estimating the almost ideal demand system with infrequency of purchase

A Bayesian method of estimating multivariate sample selection models is introduced and applied to the estimation of a demand system for food in the UK to account for censoring arising from infrequency of purchase. We show how it is possible to impose identifying restrictions on the sample selection equations and that, unlike a maximum likelihood framework, the imposition of adding up at both latent and observed levels is straightforward. Our results emphasise the role played by low incomes and socio-economic circumstances in leading to poor diets and also indicate that the presence of children in a household has a negative impact on dietary quality.

Kinetics and mechanism of the interconversion of inverse bicontinuous cubic mesophases

This paper describes time-resolved x-ray diffraction data monitoring the transformation of one inverse bicontinuous cubic mesophase into another, in a hydrated lipid system. The first section of the paper describes a mechanism for the transformation that conserves the topology of the bilayer, based on the work of Charvolin and Sadoc, Fogden and Hyde, and Benedicto and O'Brien in this area. We show a pictorial representation of this mechanism, in terms of both the water channels and the lipid bilayer. The second section describes the experimental results obtained. The system under investigation was 2:1 lauric acid: dilauroylphosphatidylcholine at a hydration of 50% water by weight. A pressure-jump was used to induce a phase transition from the gyroid (Q(II)(G)) to the diamond (Q(II)(D)) bicontinuous cubic mesophase, which was monitored by time-resolved x-ray diffraction. The lattice parameter of both mesophases was found to decrease slightly throughout the transformation, but at the stage where the Q(II)(D) phase first appeared, the ratio of lattice parameters of the two phases was found to be approximately constant for all pressure-jump experiments. The value is consistent with a topology-preserving mechanism. However, the polydomain nature of our sample prevents us from confirming that the specific pathway is that described in the first section of the paper. Our data also reveal signals from two different intermediate structures, one of which we have identified as the inverse hexagonal (H-II) mesophase. We suggest that it plays a role in the transfer of water during the transformation. The rate of the phase transition was found to increase with both temperature and pressure-jump amplitude, and its time scale varied from the order of seconds to minutes, depending on the conditions employed.

Inverse model control using recurrent networks

This paper illustrates how internal model control of nonlinear processes can be achieved by recurrent neural networks, e.g. fully connected Hopfield networks. It is shown that using results developed by Kambhampati et al. (1995), that once a recurrent network model of a nonlinear system has been produced, a controller can be produced which consists of the network comprising the inverse of the model and a filter. Thus, the network providing control for the nonlinear system does not require any training after it has been trained to model the nonlinear system. Stability and other issues of importance for nonlinear control systems are also discussed.

Modelling and control of Hammerstein system using B-spline approximation and the inverse of De Boor algorithm

In this article a simple and effective controller design is introduced for the Hammerstein systems that are identified based on observational input/output data. The nonlinear static function in the Hammerstein system is modelled using a B-spline neural network. The controller is composed by computing the inverse of the B-spline approximated nonlinear static function, and a linear pole assignment controller. The contribution of this article is the inverse of De Boor algorithm that computes the inverse efficiently. Mathematical analysis is provided to prove the convergence of the proposed algorithm. Numerical examples are utilised to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.

Issues in the assimilation of the sources of a trace gas by inverse modelling

The problem of reconstructing the (otherwise unknown) source and sink field of a tracer in a fluid is studied by developing and testing a simple tracer transport model of a single-level global atmosphere and a dynamic data assimilation system. The source/sink field (taken to be constant over a 10-day assimilation window) and initial tracer field are analysed together by assimilating imperfect tracer observations over the window. Experiments show that useful information about the source/sink field may be determined from relatively few observations when the initial tracer field is known very accurately a-priori, even when a-priori source/sink information is biased (the source/sink a-priori is set to zero). In this case each observation provides information about the source/sink field at positions upstream and the assimilation of many observations together can reasonably determine the location and strength of a test source.

B-spline neural network based digital baseband predistorter solution using the inverse of De Boor algorithm

In this paper a new nonlinear digital baseband predistorter design is introduced based on direct learning, together with a new Wiener system modeling approach for the high power amplifiers (HPA) based on the B-spline neural network. The contribution is twofold. Firstly, by assuming that the nonlinearity in the HPA is mainly dependent on the input signal amplitude the complex valued nonlinear static function is represented by two real valued B-spline neural networks, one for the amplitude distortion and another for the phase shift. The Gauss-Newton algorithm is applied for the parameter estimation, in which the De Boor recursion is employed to calculate both the B-spline curve and the first order derivatives. Secondly, we derive the predistorter algorithm calculating the inverse of the complex valued nonlinear static function according to B-spline neural network based Wiener models. The inverse of the amplitude and phase shift distortion are then computed and compensated using the identified phase shift model. Numerical examples have been employed to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approaches.

Making the least active pay: a simulation of rewards and penalties under Demand Side Participation programs

The orthodox approach for incentivising Demand Side Participation (DSP) programs is that utility losses from capital, installation and planning costs should be recovered under financial incentive mechanisms which aim to ensure that utilities have the right incentives to implement DSP activities. The recent national smart metering roll-out in the UK implies that this approach needs to be reassessed since utilities will recover the capital costs associated with DSP technology through bills. This paper introduces a reward and penalty mechanism focusing on residential users. DSP planning costs are recovered through payments from those consumers who do not react to peak signals. Those consumers who do react are rewarded by paying lower bills. Because real-time incentives to residential consumers tend to fail due to the negligible amounts associated with net gains (and losses) or individual users, in the proposed mechanism the regulator determines benchmarks which are matched against responses to signals and caps the level of rewards/penalties to avoid market distortions. The paper presents an overview of existing financial incentive mechanisms for DSP; introduces the reward/penalty mechanism aimed at fostering DSP under the hypothesis of smart metering roll-out; considers the costs faced by utilities for DSP programs; assesses linear rate effects and value changes; introduces compensatory weights for those consumers who have physical or financial impediments; and shows findings based on simulation runs on three discrete levels of elasticity.

The elasticity of demand is about occupancy, not prices: building European demand curves based on occupancy elasticity

The peak congestion of the European grid may create significant impacts on system costs because of the need for higher marginal cost generation, higher cost system balancing and increasing grid reinforcement investment. The use of time of use rates, incentives, real time pricing and other programmes, usually defined as Demand Side Management (DSM), could bring about significant reductions in prices, limit carbon emissions from dirty power plants, and improve the integration of renewable sources of energy. Unlike previous studies on elasticity of residential electricity demand under flat tariffs, the aim of this study is not to investigate the known relatively inelastic relationship between demand and prices. Rather, the aim is to assess how occupancy levels vary in different European countries. This reflects the reality of demand loads, which are predominantly determined by the timing of human activities (e.g. travelling to work, taking children to school) rather than prices. To this end, two types of occupancy elasticity are estimated: baseline occupancy elasticity and peak occupancy elasticity. These represent the intrinsic elasticity associated with human activities of single residential end-users in 15 European countries. This study makes use of occupancy time-series data from the Harmonised European Time Use Survey database to build European occupancy curves; identify peak occupancy periods; draw time use demand curves for video and TV watching activity; and estimate national occupancy elasticity levels of single-occupant households. Findings on occupancy elasticities provide an indication of possible DSM strategies based on occupancy levels and not prices.

Demand response experience in Europe: policies, programmes and implementation

Over the last few years, load growth, increases in intermittent generation, declining technology costs and increasing recognition of the importance of customer behaviour in energy markets have brought about a change in the focus of Demand Response (DR) in Europe. The long standing programmes involving large industries, through interruptible tariffs and time of day pricing, have been increasingly complemented by programmes aimed at commercial and residential customer groups. Developments in DR vary substantially across Europe reflecting national conditions and triggered by different sets of policies, programmes and implementation schemes. This paper examines experiences within European countries as well as at European Union (EU) level, with the aim of understanding which factors have facilitated or impeded advances in DR. It describes initiatives, studies and policies of various European countries, with in-depth case studies of the UK, Italy and Spain. It is concluded that while business programmes, technical and economic potentials vary across Europe, there are common reasons as to why coordinated DR policies have been slow to emerge. This is because of the limited knowledge on DR energy saving capacities; high cost estimates for DR technologies and infrastructures; and policies focused on creating the conditions for liberalising the EU energy markets.