Probabilistic models for mechanical properties of prestressing strands

This study focus on the probabilistic modelling of mechanical properties of prestressing strands based on data collected from tensile tests carried out in Laboratório Nacional de Engenharia Civil (LNEC), Portugal, for certification purposes, and covers a period of about 9 years of production. The strands studied were produced by six manufacturers from four countries, namely Portugal, Spain, Italy and Thailand. Variability of the most important mechanicalproperties is examined and the results are compared with the recommendations of the ProbabilisticModel Code, as well as the Eurocodes and earlier studies. The obtained results show a very low variability which, of course, benefits structural safety. Based on those results, probabilistic modelsfor the most important mechanical properties of prestressing strands are proposed.

Non-linear time series models

The last three decades have seen quite dramatic changes the way we modeled time dependent data. Linear processes have been in the center stage in modeling time series. As far as the second order properties are concerned, the theory and the methodology are very adequate.However, there are more and more evidences that linear models are not sufficiently flexible and rich enough for modeling purposes and that failure to account for non-linearities can be very misleading and have undesired consequences.

A score test for non-nested hypotheses with applications to discrete data models

This paper suggests that a convenient score test against non-nested alternatives can be constructed from the linear combination of the likelihood functions of the competing models. It is shown that this procedure is essentially a test for the correct specification of the conditional distribution of the variable of interest.

Comparing the performance of geostatistical models with additional information from covariates for sewage plume characterization

In this work, kriging with covariates is used to model and map the spatial distribution of salinity measurements gathered by an autonomous underwater vehicle in a sea outfall monitoring campaign aiming to distinguish the effluent plume from the receiving waters and characterize its spatial variability in the vicinity of the discharge. Four different geostatistical linear models for salinity were assumed, where the distance to diffuser, the west-east positioning, and the south-north positioning were used as covariates. Sample variograms were fitted by the Mat`ern models using weighted least squares and maximum likelihood estimation methods as a way to detect eventual discrepancies. Typically, the maximum likelihood method estimated very low ranges which have limited the kriging process. So, at least for these data sets, weighted least squares showed to be the most appropriate estimation method for variogram fitting. The kriged maps show clearly the spatial variation of salinity, and it is possible to identify the effluent plume in the area studied. The results obtained show some guidelines for sewage monitoring if a geostatistical analysis of the data is in mind. It is important to treat properly the existence of anomalous values and to adopt a sampling strategy that includes transects parallel and perpendicular to the effluent dispersion.

Performance of state space and ARIMA models for consumer retail sales forecasting

Forecasting future sales is one of the most important issues that is beyond all strategic and planning decisions in effective operations of retail businesses. For profitable retail businesses, accurate demand forecasting is crucial in organizing and planning production, purchasing, transportation and labor force. Retail sales series belong to a special type of time series that typically contain trend and seasonal patterns, presenting challenges in developing effective forecasting models. This work compares the forecasting performance of state space models and ARIMA models. The forecasting performance is demonstrated through a case study of retail sales of five different categories of women footwear: Boots, Booties, Flats, Sandals and Shoes. On both methodologies the model with the minimum value of Akaike's Information Criteria for the in-sample period was selected from all admissible models for further evaluation in the out-of-sample. Both one-step and multiple-step forecasts were produced. The results show that when an automatic algorithm the overall out-of-sample forecasting performance of state space and ARIMA models evaluated via RMSE, MAE and MAPE is quite similar on both one-step and multi-step forecasts. We also conclude that state space and ARIMA produce coverage probabilities that are close to the nominal rates for both one-step and multi-step forecasts.

Aplicação da Children's Depression Inventory Numa População Clínica de Adolescentes: Estudo Exploratório

Introdução: A Children’s Depression Inventory (CDI; Kovacs, 1992) é usada para avaliar a existência de sintomatologia depressiva na infância e adolescência e tem sido amplamente aplicada em populações não clínicas, em Portugal, desde a sua validação (Marujo, 1994). Porém, os dados referentes a populações clínicas são escassos. Objectivo: Pretende-se estabelecer correlações clínicas numa amostra de adolescentes seguidos em consulta de Pedopsiquiatria fazendo uma contribuição para a validação da CDI em Portugal, com vista a permitir o alargamento da sua aplicação a populações clínicas. Métodos: A CDI -27 itens foi auto-preenchida na 1ª entrevista de atendimento por 35 adolescentes (F=23; M=12) com necessidade de rastreio de depressão, utentes da Consulta de Ambulatório da Clínica da Juventude entre Janeiro/2010 e Julho/2011. Foram excluídos os casos com processo clínico incompleto. Na estatística usou-se o IBM SPSS 19. Resultados: Os dados correspondem a 7,9% da população de origem (N=443). A idade média foi de 14,5 anos (Mín. =13; Máx. =16). A escolaridade média foi de 8,54 anos (Mín. =5; Máx. =11). A estrutura familiar e motivos de pedido de consulta corresponderam aos estudos anteriores efectuados na Clínica. O cutt-off do nível clínico é 15 e 68,5% da amostra estava acima deste valor. O humor negativo (26%) e sentimento de ineficácia (23%) foram as subescalas mais elevadas; 40% dos jovens pontuou para mais do que uma subescala. Os diagnósticos obtidos foram Perturbações do Humor (43%), Perturbações de Adaptação (17%), Perturbações Disruptivas do Comportamento (14%), Perturbações de Ansiedade (9%), Problemas com Grupo de Apoio Primário (3%), Perturbações de Personalidade (3%), e outros (9%). O qui-quadrado não foi significativo para um cut-off de 15 (considerados Perturbações do Humor e Outros diagnósticos). Conclusões: A CDI e os resultados das subescalas são úteis para uma abordagem focalizada e permitem a priorização de casos. Porém, os resultados obtidos comprometem o uso da CDI na detecção de Perturbações do Humor. Os autores sugerem a realização de mais investigações com o objectivo de alargar e melhorar a avaliação do uso clínico da CDI.

Tuple-based morphisms for interoperability establishment of financial information models

Dissertação apresentada na Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia da Universidade Nova de Lisboa para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e Computadores

Dimensionar a logística interna da fábrica Toyota Ovar para a produção de nova viatura

O projeto foi realizado na Toyota (divisão fabril de Ovar), no ano letivo 2014/2015, teve por base um estágio extracurricular que foi realizado para que desta forma tomasse contacto com uma realidade concreta e absoluta no contexto empresarial. O estágio serviu, principalmente, como uma experiência na compreensão do funcionamento de uma indústria de automóveis. Este projeto desenvolve-se no âmbito do 2ºano do Mestrado de Logística e apresenta os contributos desenvolvidos no departamento de logística para a reorganização da mesma para a produção de um novo modelo automóvel. Atualmente, a Toyota, para os modelos de automóveis que produz, recebe os componentes em CKD (Completed Knocked Down) provenientes do Japão em lotes de cinco unidades. Estes lotes são armazenados no armazém, de onde só saem quando for dada ordem para serem produzidos. Cada lote tem várias caixas, que são colocadas à vez numa zona comum de abertura. São retidos os componentes das caixas CKD e colocados nos transportadores próprios dos postos correspondentes (supermercado de linha). Isto significa que sempre que é solicitado uma viatura de um determinado lote, são obrigados a produzir as cinco unidades. Isto significa que as restantes unidades do lote terão que ficar em parque aberto a aguardar venda futura, para além de ter um stock desnecessário, estas unidades ficam vulneráveis e sofrem desgaste, pois estão expostas à intempérie, causando graves problemas de qualidade e respetivos custos associados. Recentemente, foi decidida a produção do modelo Land Cruiser 70 na unidade industrial de Ovar, Portugal, o que obrigou a uma reorganização da produção e processos logísticos para a sua produção. Os objetivos que a empresa pretende com a entrada de um novo projeto Land Cruiser 70, são os seguintes: Alterar o sistema de abastecimento, implementando o abastecimento unitário em toda a fábrica para o novo modelo, garantindo o “one by one production”; Definir o funcionamento do processo logístico desde a chegada dos componentes até ficarem disponíveis no supermercado de linha. Para isso será necessário dimensionar armazém e zona de abertura, definir layouts e quantidade de stocks, bem como definir sistemas de comunicação entre abertura e supermercado; Verificar as peças que vão fazer parte do chassi por posto e contabilizar os dolly´s1 necessários; Fazer o layout de abastecimento da linha do chassi; Calcular o tempo de abertura, de abastecimento e de picking do chassi e de triming. Este projeto tem em conta a política de melhoria contínua de forma a conseguir satisfazer o cliente (ser eficaz) utilizando cada vez menos recursos quer físicos quer humanos (ser eficiente, detetar e eliminar os desperdícios). O presente projeto foi inserido na equipa de melhoria contínua da logística, maioritariamente no chassi. Em termos globais, os objetivos propostos neste estágio foram atingidos com êxito.

ANIMAL MODELS FOR THE STUDY OF LEISHMANIASIS IMMUNOLOGY

Leishmaniasis remains a major public health problem worldwide and is classified as Category I by the TDR/WHO, mainly due to the absence of control. Many experimental models like rodents, dogs and monkeys have been developed, each with specific features, in order to characterize the immune response to Leishmania species, but none reproduces the pathology observed in human disease. Conflicting data may arise in part because different parasite strains or species are being examined, different tissue targets (mice footpad, ear, or base of tail) are being infected, and different numbers (“low” 1×102 and “high” 1×106) of metacyclic promastigotes have been inoculated. Recently, new approaches have been proposed to provide more meaningful data regarding the host response and pathogenesis that parallels human disease. The use of sand fly saliva and low numbers of parasites in experimental infections has led to mimic natural transmission and find new molecules and immune mechanisms which should be considered when designing vaccines and control strategies. Moreover, the use of wild rodents as experimental models has been proposed as a good alternative for studying the host-pathogen relationships and for testing candidate vaccines. To date, using natural reservoirs to study Leishmania infection has been challenging because immunologic reagents for use in wild rodents are lacking. This review discusses the principal immunological findings against Leishmania infection in different animal models highlighting the importance of using experimental conditions similar to natural transmission and reservoir species as experimental models to study the immunopathology of the disease.

Algorithm for the Parkinson’s disease behavioural models characterization using a biosensor

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Biomédica

INVENTORY OF MOSQUITOES (DIPTERA: CULICIDAE) IN CONSERVATION UNITS IN BRAZILIAN TROPICAL DRY FORESTS

In Brazil, most studies of the Culicidae family are concentrated in rainforest regions. As such, there is a lack of knowledge regarding the diversity of Culicidae in regions with different climatic and vegetational characteristics. The aim of this study was to compile an inventory of Culicidae in protected areas of the semi-arid region of the state of Minas Gerais, Brazil, in order to better understand the diversity of the family within this region. The study was conducted across four protected areas in the northern region of the state, in tropical dry forest (TDF) fragments. Sampling methods included Shannon trap and CDC light trap, as well as active collection. A total of 11,219 mosquito specimens were collected between August 2008 and July 2012, belonging to 11 genera and 45 species; 15 new records for the state of Minas Gerais were registered, as well as 26 new records for semi-arid regions within the state. The high number of new Culicidae records in this region demonstrates the importance of inventory studies for increasing the knowledge of culicid biodiversity in Minas Gerais, and in particular within semi-arid regions of the state.

Development of novel human cellular models for neurotoxicity studies

Dissertation to obtain master degree in Genética Molecular e Biomedicina

Personality, Brain Asymmetry, and Neuroendocrine Reactivity in Two Immune-Mediated Disorders: a Preliminary Report

Development of some immune-mediated disorders may depend on dysregulation of the hypothalamic-pituitary-adrenal (HPA) axis. To explore neuropsychologic mechanisms in relation to the abnormal endocrine reactivity in patients with systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE) and chronic hepatitis C (CHC) we used the corticotropin releasing hormone (CRH) test, the Minnesota Multiphasic Personality Inventory (MMPI), and the Edinburgh Inventory of Manual Preference Inventory (EIMP). Compared to controls, the adrenocorticotrophic hormone (ACTH) response to CRH was reduced in CHC, while SLE presented reduced baseline dehydroepiandrosterone sulfate levels; higher neurotic scores were found in SLE and higher behavior deviant scores in CHC. Peak ACTH levels were a significant factor for the MMPI profile variability, while the manual preference score was a significant factor for the ACTH response. Personality and manual preference contribute to neuroendocrine abnormalities. Different behavioral and neuroimmunoendocrine models emerge for these disorders.

Analysis of mental health service financial models with a particular emphasis of Ireland

ABSTRACT: Financing is a critical factor in ensuring the optimal development and delivery of a mental health system. The primary method of financing worldwide is tax-based. However many low income countries depend on out-of-pocket payments. There is a report on Irish Health Care funding but none that deals exclusively with mental health care. This paper analyses the various financial models that exist globally with respect to financing the mental health sector, examines the impact of various models on service users, especially in terms of relative ‘financial burden’ and provides a more detailed examination of the current mental health funding situation in Ireland After extensive internet and hardcopy research on the above topics, the findings were analysed and a number of recommendations were reached. Mental health service should be free at the point of delivery to achieve universal coverage. Government tax-based funding or mandatory social insurance with government top-ups, as required, appears the optimal option, although there is no one funding system applicable everywhere. Out-of-pocket funding can create a crippling financial burden for service users. It is important to employ improved revenue collection systems, eliminate waste, provide equitable resource distribution, ring fence mental health funding and cap the number of visits, where necessary. Political, economic, social and cultural factors play a role in funding decisions and this can be clearly seen in the context of the current economic recession in Ireland. Only 33% of the Irish population has access to free public health care and the number health insurance policy holders has dramatically declined, resulting in increased out-of-pocket payments. This approach risks negatively impacting on the social determinants of health, increasing health inequalities and negatively affecting economic productivity. It is therefore important the Irish government examines other options to provide funding for mental health services.

Empirical models for quantification of machining damage in composite materials

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Doutor em Engenharia Mecânica