976 resultados para interannual variability
Resumo:
Global change in land water storage and its effect on sea level is estimated over a 7-year time span (August 2002 to July 2009) using space gravimetry data from GRACE. The 33 World largest river basins are considered. We focus on the year-to-year variability and construct a total land water storage time series that we further express in equivalent sea level time series. The short-term trend in total water storage adjusted over this 7-year time span is positive and amounts to 80.6 ± 15.7 km**3/yr (net water storage excess). Most of the positive contribution arises from the Amazon and Siberian basins (Lena and Yenisei), followed by the Zambezi, Orinoco and Ob basins. The largest negative contributions (water deficit) come from the Mississippi, Ganges, Brahmaputra, Aral, Euphrates, Indus and Parana. Expressed in terms of equivalent sea level, total water volume change over 2002-2009 leads to a small negative contribution to sea level of -0.22 ± 0.05 mm/yr. The time series for each basin clearly show that year-to-year variability dominates so that the value estimated in this study cannot be considered as representative of a long-term trend. We also compare the interannual variability of total land water storage (removing the mean trend over the studied time span) with interannual variability in sea level (corrected for thermal expansion). A correlation of ~0.6 is found. Phasing, in particular, is correct. Thus, at least part of the interannual variability of the global mean sea level can be attributed to land water storage fluctuations.
Resumo:
Within the last decade, the Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) and its surroundings have experienced record high surface temperatures (Mote, 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031976; Box et al., 2010), ice sheet melt extent (Fettweis et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-359-2011) and record-low summer sea-ice extent (Nghiem et al., 2007, doi:10.1029/2007GL031138). Using three independent data sets, we derive, for the first time, consistent ice-mass trends and temporal variations within seven major drainage basins from gravity fields from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE; Tapley et al., 2004, doi:10.1029/2004GL019920), surface-ice velocities from Inteferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR; Rignot and Kanagaratnam, 2006, doi:10.1126/science.1121381) together with output of the regional atmospheric climate modelling (RACMO2/ GR; Ettema et al., 2009, doi:10.1029/2009GL038110), and surface-elevation changes from the Ice, cloud and land elevation satellite (ICESat; Sorensen et al., 2011, doi:10.5194/tc-5-173-2011). We show that changing ice discharge (D), surface melting and subsequent run-off (M/R) and precipitation (P) all contribute, in a complex and regionally variable interplay, to the increasingly negative mass balance of the GrIS observed within the last decade. Interannual variability in P along the northwest and west coasts of the GrIS largely explains the apparent regional mass loss increase during 2002-2010, and obscures increasing M/R and D since the 1990s. In winter 2002/2003 and 2008/2009, accumulation anomalies in the east and southeast temporarily outweighed the losses by M/R and D that prevailed during 2003-2008, and after summer 2010. Overall, for all basins of the GrIS, the decadal variability of anomalies in P, M/R and D between 1958 and 2010 (w.r.t. 1961-1990) was significantly exceeded by the regional trends observed during the GRACE period (2002-2011).
Resumo:
Combined d18O/salinity data reveal a distinctive water mass generated during winter sea ice formation which is found predominantly in the coastal polynya region of the southern Laptev Sea. Export of the brine-enriched bottom water shows interannual variability in correlation with atmospheric conditions. Summer anticyclonic circulation is favoring an offshore transport of river water at the surface as well as a pronounced signal of brine-enriched waters at about 50 m water depth at the shelf break. Summer cyclonic atmospheric circulation favors onshore or an eastward, alongshore water transport, and at the shelf break the river water fraction is reduced and the pronounced brine signal is missing, while on the middle Laptev Sea shelf, brine-enriched waters are found in high proportions. Residence times of bottom and subsurface waters on the shelf may thereby vary considerably: an export of shelf waters to the Arctic Ocean halocline might be shut down or strongly reduced during "onshore" cyclonic atmospheric circulation, while with "offshore" anticyclonic atmospheric circulation, brine waters are exported and residence times may be as short as 1 year only.
Resumo:
Planktic foraminiferal assemblages vary in response to seasonal fluctuations of hydrographic properties, between water masses, and after periodical changes and episodic events (e.g. reproduction, storms). Distinct annual variability of the planktic foraminiferal flux is also known from sediment trap data. In this paper we discuss the short-term impacts on interannual flux rates based on data from opening-closing net hauls obtained between the ocean surface and 500 m water depth. Data were recorded during April, May, June, and August at around 47°N, 20°W (BIOTRANS) in 1988, 1989, 1990, 1992, 1993, and during May 1989 and 1992 at 57°N, 20-22°W. Species assemblages closely resemble each other when comparing the mixed layer fauna with the fauna of the upper 100 m and the upper 500 m of the water column. In addition, species assemblages >100 µm are almost indistinguishable from assemblages that are >125 µm in test size. The standing stock of planktic foraminifers at BIOTRANS can vary by more than one order of magnitude over different years; however, species assemblages may be similar when comparing corresponding seasons. Early summer assemblages (June) are distinctly different from late summer assemblages (August). Significant variations in the species composition during spring (April/May) are independent of the mixed layer depth. Spring assemblages are characterized by high numbers of Globigerinita glutinata. In particular, day-to-day variations of the number of specimens and in species composition may have the same order of magnitude as interannual variations. This appears to be independent of the reproduction cycle. Species assemblages at 47°N and 57°N are similar during spring, although surface water temperatures and salinities differ by up to 10°C and 0.7 (PSU). We suggest that the main factors controlling the planktic foraminiferal fauna are the trophic properties in the upper ocean productive layer. Planktic foraminiferal carbonate flux as calculated from assemblages reveals large seasonal variations, a quasi-annual periodicity in flux levels, and substantial differences in timing and magnitude of peak fluxes. At the BIOTRANS station, the average annual planktic foraminiferal CaCO3 fluxes at 100 and 500 m depth are estimated to be 22.4 and 10.0 g/m**2/yr, respectively.