927 resultados para implied volatility, VIX, volatility forecasts, informational efficiency


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Most soils contain preferential flow paths that can impact on solute mobility. Solutes can move rapidly down the preferential flow paths with high pore-water velocities, but can be held in the less permeable region of the soil matrix with low pore-water velocities, thereby reducing the efficiency of leaching. In this study, we conducted leaching experiments with interruption of the flow and drainage of the main flow paths to assess the efficiency of this type of leaching. We compared our experimental results to a simple analytical model, which predicts the influence of the variations in concentration gradients within a single spherical aggregate (SSA) surrounded by preferential flow paths on leaching. We used large (length: 300 mm, diameter: 216 mm) undisturbed field soil cores from two contrasting soil types. To carry out intermittent leaching experiments, the field soil cores were first saturated with tracer solution (CaBr2), and background solution (CaCl2) was applied to mimic a leaching event. The cores were then drained at 25- to 30-cm suction to empty the main flow paths to mimic a dry period during which solutes could redistribute within the undrained region. We also conducted continuous leaching experiments to assess the impact of the dry periods on the efficiency of leaching. The flow interruptions with drainage enhanced leaching by 10-20% for our soils, which was consistent with the model's prediction, given an optimised equivalent aggregate radius for each soil. This parameter quantifies the time scales that characterise diffusion within the undrained region of the soil, and allows us to calculate the duration of the leaching events and interruption periods that would lead to more efficient leaching. Application of these methodologies will aid development of strategies for improving management of chemicals in soils, needed in managing salts in soils, in improving fertiliser efficiency, and in reclaiming contaminated soils. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

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The use of long-term forecasts of pest pressure is central to better pest management. We relate the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) and the Sea Surface Temperature (SST) to long-term light-trap catches of the two key moth pests of Australian agriculture, Helicoverpa punctigera (Wallengren) and H. armigera (Hubner), at Narrabri, New South Wales over 11 years, and for H. punctigera only at Turretfield, South Australia over 22 years. At Narrabri, the size of the first spring generation of both species was significantly correlated with the SOI in certain months, sometimes up to 15 months before the date of trapping. Differences in the SOI and SST between significant months were used to build composite variables in multiple regressions which gave fitted values of the trap catches to less than 25% of the observed values. The regressions suggested that useful forecasts of both species could be made 6-15 months ahead. The influence of the two weather variables on trap catches of H. punctigera at Turretfield were not as strong as at Narrabri, probably because the SOI was not as strongly related to rainfall in southern Australia as it is in eastern Australia. The best fits were again given by multiple regressions with SOI plus SST variables, to within 40% of the observed values. The reliability of both variables as predictors of moth numbers may be limited by the lack of stability in the SOI-rainfall correlation over the historical record. As no other data set is available to test the regressions, they can only be tested by future use. The use of long-term forecasts in pest management is discussed, and preliminary analyses of other long sets of insect numbers suggest that the Southern Oscillation Index may be a useful predictor of insect numbers in other parts of the world.

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Intelligence (IQ) can be seen as the efficiency of mental processes or cognition, as can basic information processing (IP) tasks like those used in our ongoing Memory, Attention and Problem Solving (MAPS) study. Measures of IQ and IP are correlated and both have a genetic component, so we are studying how the genetic variance in IQ is related to the genetic variance in IP. We measured intelligence with five subscales of the Multidimensional Aptitude Battery (MAB). The IP tasks included four variants of choice reaction time (CRT) and a visual inspection time (IT). The influence of genetic factors on the variances in each of the IQ, IP, and IT tasks was investigated in 250 identical and nonidentical twin pairs aged 16 years. For a subset of 50 pairs we have test–retest data that allow us to estimate the stability of the measures. MX was used for a multivariate genetic analysis that addresses whether the variance in IQ and IP measures is possibly mediated by common genetic factors. Analyses that show the modeled genetic and environmental influences on these measures of cognitive efficiency will be presented and their relevance to ideas on intelligence will be discussed.

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Field trials and laboratory bioassays were undertaken to compare the performance and efficacy (mortality of diamondback moth larvae) of insecticides applied to cabbages with three high volume hydraulic knapsack sprayers (NS-16, PB-20 and Selecta 12V) and a controlled droplet application (CDA) sprayer. In field experiments, the high volume knapsack sprayers (application rate 500-600 L ha(-1)) provided better spray coverage on the upper and lower surfaces of inner leaves, the upper surfaces of middle and outer leaves, and greater biological efficacy than the CDA sprayer (application rate 20similar to40 L ha(-1)). The PB-20 provided better spray coverage on the upper surface of middle leaves and both surfaces of outer leaves when compared with the Selecta 12V. However, its biological efficacy in the field was not significantly different from that of the other high volume sprayers. Increasing the application rate from 20 to 40 L ha(-1) for the CDA sprayer significantly increased droplet density but had no impact on test insect mortality. Laboratory evaluations of biological efficacy yielded higher estimates than field evaluations and there was no significant difference between the performance of the PB-20 and the CDA sprayer. Significant positive relationships were detected between insect mortality and droplet density deposited for both the PB-20 and the CDA sprayers.

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This paper measured the variations in performance of small municipalities in the State of Sao Paulo, Brazil, regarding the technical efficiency in the use of public funds in public primary health care actions concerning the funding profile, in a scenario of fiscal federalism. Technical efficiency is one of the parameters of evaluation of public sector performance and was measured by means of Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The correlation analysis of DEA score was used to verify possible associations between technical efficiency and the funding profile of expenses with health care. The results showed that 6.41% of the municipalities were considered efficient. They also showed that the level of municipality dependence to inter-governmental general purpose grants and the national health funding specific purpose grants have negative correlation with efficiency scores.

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This paper analyzes the geography of regional competitiveness in manufacturing in Brazil. The authors estimate stochastic frontiers to calculate regional efficiency of representative firms in 137 regions in the period 2000-2006, in four sectors defined by technological intensity. The efficiency results are analyzed using Markov Spatial Transition Matrices to provide insights into the transition of regions between efficiency levels, considering their local spatial context. The results indicate that geography plays an important role in manufacturing competitiveness. In particular, regions with more competitive neighbors are more likely to improve their relative efficiency (pull effect) over time, and regions with less competitive neighbors are more likely to lose relative efficiency (drag effect). The authors find that the pull effect is stronger than the drag effect.

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This article deals with the efficiency of fractional integration parameter estimators. This study was based on Monte Carlo experiments involving simulated stochastic processes with integration orders in the range]-1,1[. The evaluated estimation methods were classified into two groups: heuristics and semiparametric/maximum likelihood (ML). The study revealed that the comparative efficiency of the estimators, measured by the lesser mean squared error, depends on the stationary/non-stationary and persistency/anti-persistency conditions of the series. The ML estimator was shown to be superior for stationary persistent processes; the wavelet spectrum-based estimators were better for non-stationary mean reversible and invertible anti-persistent processes; the weighted periodogram-based estimator was shown to be superior for non-invertible anti-persistent processes.

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The traditional theory of price index numbers is based on the law of one price. But in the real world, we frequently observe the existence of an equilibrium price dispersion instead of one price of equilibrium. This article discusses the effects of price dispersion on two price indexes: the cost of living index and the consumer price index. With price dispersion and consumer searching for the lowest price, these indexes cannot be interpreted as deterministic indicators, but as stochastic indicators, and they can be biased if price dispersion is not taken into account. A measure for the bias of the consumer price index is proposed and the article ends with an estimation of the bias based on data obtained from the consumer price index calculated for the city of Sao Paulo, Brazil, from January 1988 through December 2004. The period analysed is very interesting, because it exhibits different inflationary environments: high levels and high volatility of the rates of inflation with great price dispersion until July 1994 and low and relatively stable rates of inflation with prices less dispersed after August 1994.

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In a recent thought-provoking paper, Ball and Sheridan [Ball, L., Sheridan, N., 2005. Does inflation targeting matter? In: Bernanke, B.S., Woodford, M. (Eds.), The Inflation-Targeting Debate, University of Chicago Press] show that the available evidence for a group of developed economies does not lend credence to the belief that adopting an inflation targeting regime (IT) was instrumental in bringing inflation and inflation volatility down. Here, we extend Ball and Sheridan`s analysis for a subset of 36 emerging market economies and find that, for them, the story is quite different. Compared to non-targeters, developing countries adopting the IT regime not only experienced greater drops in inflation, but also in growth volatility, thus corroborating the view that the regime`s ""constrained flexibility"" to deal with adverse shocks delivered concrete welfare gains. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

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The influence of the preparation method on the performance of RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) electrodes was evaluated toward the ethanol oxidation reaction (EOR). Freshly prepared RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) thin films containing between 30 and 80 at.% Ru were prepared by two different methods: the modified Pechini-Adams method (DPP) and standard thermal decomposition (STD). Electrochemical investigation of the electrode containing RuO(2)-Ta(2)O(5) thin films was conducted as a function of electrode composition in a 0.5-mol dm(-3) H(2)SO(4) solution, in the presence and absence of ethanol and its derivants (acetaldehyde and acetic acid). At a low ethanol concentration (5 mmol dm(-3)), ethanol oxidation leads to high yields of acetic acid and CO(2). On the other hand, an increase in ethanol concentration (15-1000 mmol dm(-3)) favors acetaldehyde formation, so acetic acid and CO(2) production is hindered, in this case. Electrodes prepared by DPP provide higher current efficiency than STD electrodes for all the investigated ethanol concentrations. This may be explained by the increase in electrode area obtained with the DPP preparation method compared with STD. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

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The `reflexive thinking` concept is discussed in this article as a means of contextualizing John Dewey`s intellectual legacy. `Reflection` represents a fundamental element for the construction of the necessary competences to information seeking and use, and consequently to individual and collective development. Since the reflexive thinking habit in information literacy is a way of learning, some questions concerning teaching and learning processes are also investigated. The discussion is, therefore, supported by the supposition that reflexive thinking is a cognitive strategy that allows a deeper comprehension of related problems, phenomena, and processes by means of the perception of the relations and the identification of involved elements, as well as the analysis and interpretation of meanings, empowering the information literacy process.

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The value of a seasonal forecasting system based on phases of the Southern Oscillation was estimated for a representative dryland wheat grower in the vicinity of Goondiwindi. In particular the effects on this estimate of risk attitude and planting conditions were examined. A recursive stochastic programming approach was used to identify the grower's utility-maximising action set in the event of each of the climate patterns over the period 1894-1991 recurring In the imminent season. The approach was repeated with and without use of the forecasts. The choices examined were, at planting, nitrogen application rate and cultivar and, later in the season, choices of proceeding with or abandoning each wheat activity, The value of the forecasting system was estimated as the maximum amount the grower could afford to pay for its use without expected utility being lowered relative to its non use.

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A glasshouse study examined 49 diverse sorghum lines for variation in transpiration efficiency. Three of the 49 lines grown were Sorghum spp, native to Australia; one was the major weed Johnson grass (Sorghum halepense), and the remaining 45 lines were cultivars of Sorghum bicolor. All plants were grown under non-limiting water and nutrient conditions using a semi-automatic pot watering system designed to facilitate accurate measurement of water use. Plants were harvested 56-58 days after sowing and dry weights of plant parts were determined. Transpiration efficiency differed significantly among cultivars. The 3 Australian native sorghums had much lower transpiration efficiency than the other 46 cultivars, which ranged from 7.7 to 6.0 g/kg. For the 46 diverse cultivars, the ratio of range in transpiration efficiency to its l.s.d. was 2.0, which was similar to that found among more adapted cultivars in a previous study. This is a significant finding as it suggests that there is likely to be little pay-off from pursuing screening of unadapted material for increased variation in transpiration efficiency. It is necessary, however, also to examine absolute levels of transpiration efficiency to determine whether increased levels have been found. The cultivar with greatest transpiration efficiency in this study (IS9710) had a value 9% greater (P < 0.05) than the accepted standard for adapted sorghum cultivars. The potential impact of such an increase in transpiration efficiency warrants continued effort to capture it. Transpiration efficiency has been related theoretically and experimentally to the degree of carbon isotope discrimination in leaf tissue in sorghum, which thus offers a relatively simple selection index. In this study, the variation in transpiration efficiency was not related simply to carbon isotope discrimination. Significant associations of transpiration efficiency with ash content and indices of photosynthetic capacity were found. However, the associations were not strong. These results suggest that a simple screening technique could not be based on any of the measures or indices analysed in this study. A better understanding of the physiological basis of the observed genetic differences in transpiration efficiency may assist in developing reliable selection indices. It was concluded that the potential value of the improvement in transpiration efficiency over the accepted standard and the degree of genetic variation found warrant further study on this subject. It was suggested that screening for genetic variation under water-limiting conditions may provide useful insights and should be pursued.

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Specific leaf nitrogen (SLN, g/m(2)) is known to affect radiation use efficiency (RUE, g/MJ) in different crops, However, this association and importance have not been well established over a range of different nitrogen regimes for held-grown sunflower (Helianthus annuus L.). An experiment was conducted to investigate different combinations and rates of applied nitrogen on SLN, RUE, and growth of sunflower, A fully irrigated crop was sown on an alluvial-prairie soil (Fluventic Haplustoll) and treated with five combinations of applied nitrogen, Greater nitrogen increased biomass, grain number, and yield, but did not affect harvest index energy-corrected for oil (0.4) or canopy extinction coefficient (0.88), Decreases in biomass accumulation under low nitrogen treatments were associated,vith reductions in leaf area index (LAI) and light interception, When SLN and RUE were examined together, both were less in the anthesis to physiological maturity period, but relatively stable between bud visible and anthesis, However, the effects of canopy SLN on RUE were confounded by high SLN in the top of the canopy and the crop maintaining SLN by reducing LAI, Measurements of leaf CO2 assimilation and theoretical analyses of RUE supported that RUE was related to SLN, The major effect of nitrogen on early growth of sunflower was mediated by leaf area and the distribution of SLN in the canopy rather than direct effects of canopy SLN on RUE alone. Greater responses of RUE to SLN are more evident later in growth, and may be related to the demand of nitrogen by the grain.