Unravelling the rationale of 'overgrazing' and stocking rates in the beef production systems of Central Brazil using a bi-criteria compromise programming model

In Central Brazil, the long-term sustainability of beef cattle systems is under threat over vast tracts of farming areas, as more than half of the 50 million hectares of sown pastures are suffering from degradation. Overgrazing practised to maintain high stocking rates is regarded as one of the main causes. High stocking rates are deliberate and crucial decisions taken by the farmers, which appear paradoxical, even irrational given the state of knowledge regarding the consequences of overgrazing. The phenomenon however appears inextricably linked with the objectives that farmers hold. In this research those objectives were elicited first and from their ranking two, ‘asset value of cattle (representing cattle ownership)' and ‘present value of economic returns', were chosen to develop an original bi-criteria Compromise Programming model to test various hypotheses postulated to explain the overgrazing behaviour. As part of the model a pasture productivity index is derived to estimate the pasture recovery cost. Different scenarios based on farmers' attitudes towards overgrazing, pasture costs and capital availability were analysed. The results of the model runs show that benefits from holding more cattle can outweigh the increased pasture recovery and maintenance costs. This result undermines the hypothesis that farmers practise overgrazing because they are unaware or uncaring about overgrazing costs. An appropriate approach to the problem of pasture degradation requires information on the economics, and its interplay with farmers' objectives, for a wide range of pasture recovery and maintenance methods. Seen within the context of farmers' objectives, some level of overgrazing appears rational. Advocacy of the simple ‘no overgrazing' rule is an insufficient strategy to maintain the long-term sustainability of the beef production systems in Central Brazil.

Unravelling the rationale of 'overgrazing' and stocking rates in the beef production systems of Central Brazil using a bi-criteria compromise programming model

In Central Brazil, the long-term, sustainability of beef cattle systems is under threat over vast tracts of farming areas, as more than half of the 50 million hectares of sown pastures are suffering from. degradation. Overgrazing practised to maintain high stocking rates is regarded as one of the main causes. High stocking rates are deliberate and crucial decisions taken by the farmers, which appear paradoxical, even irrational given the state of knowledge regarding the consequences of overgrazing. The phenomenon however appears inextricably linked with the objectives that farmers hold. In this research those objectives were elicited first and from their ranking two, 'asset value of cattle (representing cattle ownership and 'present value of economic returns', were chosen to develop an original bi-criteria Compromise Programming model to test various hypotheses postulated to explain the overgrazing behaviour. As part of the model a pasture productivity index is derived to estimate the pasture recovery cost. Different scenarios based on farmers' attitudes towards overgrazing, pasture costs and capital availability were analysed. The results of the model runs show that benefits from holding more cattle can outweigh the increased pasture recovery and maintenance costs. This result undermines the hypothesis that farmers practise overgrazing because they are unaware or uncaring caring about overgrazing costs. An appropriate approach to the problem of pasture degradation requires information on the economics,and its interplay with farmers' objectives, for a wide range of pasture recovery and maintenance methods. Seen within the context of farmers' objectives, some level of overgrazing appears rational. Advocacy of the simple 'no overgrazing' rule is an insufficient strategy to maintain the long-term sustainability of the beef production systems in Central Brazil. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Bayes estimates of distance-to-market: Transactions costs, cooperatives and milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands

Rationalizing non-participation as a resource deficiency in the household, this paper identifies strategies for milk-market development in the Ethiopian highlands. The additional amounts of covariates required for Positive marketable surplus -'distances-to market'-are computed from a model in which production and sales are correlated; sales are left-censored at some Unobserved thresholds production efficiencies are heterogeneous: and the data are in the form of a panel. Incorporating these features into the modeling exercise ant because they are fundamental to the data-generating environment. There are four reasons. First, because production and sales decisions are enacted within the same household, both decisions are affected by the same exogenous shocks, and production and sales are therefore likely to be correlated. Second. because selling, involves time and time is arguably the most important resource available to a subsistence household, the minimum Sales amount is not zero but, rather, some unobserved threshold that lies beyond zero. Third. the Potential existence of heterogeneous abilities in management, ones that lie latent from the econometrician's perspective, suggest that production efficiencies should be permitted to vary across households. Fourth, we observe a single set of households during multiple visits in a single production year. The results convey clearly that institutional and production) innovations alone are insufficient to encourage participation. Market-precipitating innovation requires complementary inputs, especially improvements in human capital and reductions in risk. Copyright (c) 20 08 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Investment in preventing and preparing for biological emergencies and disasters: social and economic costs of disasters versus costs of surveillance and response preparedness

Biological emergencies such as the appearance of an exotic transboundary or emerging disease can become disasters. The question that faces Veterinary Services in developing countries is how to balance resources dedicated to active insurance measures, such as border control, surveillance, working with the governments of developing countries, and investing in improving veterinary knowledge and tools, with passive measures, such as contingency funds and vaccine banks. There is strong evidence that the animal health situation in developed countries has improved and is relatively stable. In addition, through trade with other countries, developing countries are becoming part of the international animal health system, the status of which is improving, though with occasional setbacks. However, despite these improvements, the risk of a possible biological disaster still remains, and has increased in recent times because of the threat of bioterrorism. This paper suggests that a model that combines decision tree analysis with epidemiology is required to identify critical points in food chains that should be strengthened to reduce the risk of emergencies and prevent emergencies from becoming disasters.

On the question of proportionality of the count of observed Scrapie cases and the size of holding

Background: The present paper investigates the question of a suitable basic model for the number of scrapie cases in a holding and applications of this knowledge to the estimation of scrapie-ffected holding population sizes and adequacy of control measures within holding. Is the number of scrapie cases proportional to the size of the holding in which case it should be incorporated into the parameter of the error distribution for the scrapie counts? Or, is there a different - potentially more complex - relationship between case count and holding size in which case the information about the size of the holding should be better incorporated as a covariate in the modeling? Methods: We show that this question can be appropriately addressed via a simple zero-truncated Poisson model in which the hypothesis of proportionality enters as a special offset-model. Model comparisons can be achieved by means of likelihood ratio testing. The procedure is illustrated by means of surveillance data on classical scrapie in Great Britain. Furthermore, the model with the best fit is used to estimate the size of the scrapie-affected holding population in Great Britain by means of two capture-recapture estimators: the Poisson estimator and the generalized Zelterman estimator. Results: No evidence could be found for the hypothesis of proportionality. In fact, there is some evidence that this relationship follows a curved line which increases for small holdings up to a maximum after which it declines again. Furthermore, it is pointed out how crucial the correct model choice is when applied to capture-recapture estimation on the basis of zero-truncated Poisson models as well as on the basis of the generalized Zelterman estimator. Estimators based on the proportionality model return very different and unreasonable estimates for the population sizes. Conclusion: Our results stress the importance of an adequate modelling approach to the association between holding size and the number of cases of classical scrapie within holding. Reporting artefacts and speculative biological effects are hypothesized as the underlying causes of the observed curved relationship. The lack of adjustment for these artefacts might well render ineffective the current strategies for the control of the disease.

Fitness costs of dispersal in red foxes (Vulpes vulpes)

The costs of dispersal are an important factor promoting natal philopatry, thereby encouraging the formation of social groups. The red fox, Vulpes vulpes, exhibits a highly flexible social system and one that is thought to represent a possible stage in the evolution of more complex patterns of group-living. Although the potential benefits accruing to philopatric offspring have previously been studied in this species, the potential costs of dispersal have received less attention. We contrasted survival rates, nutritional status, injuries and reproductive output of dispersing and non-dispersing male and female foxes in an urban population to assess the relative costs of dispersal versus natal philopatry. Mortality rates were not significantly higher for dispersing foxes, either in the short- or long-term. There was no evidence of increased nutritional stress in dispersing individuals. Dispersing individuals did, however, exhibit greater levels of wounding, although this did not appear to affect survival. Dispersing females were more likely to miss a breeding opportunity early in their reproductive lifespan. In contrast, both dispersing and non-dispersing males were unlikely to breed in their first year. We conclude that the major fitness component in females affected by dispersing is age at first reproduction.

An evaluation of the costs of making specific secondary metabolites: does the yield penalty incurred by host plant resistance to insects due to competition for resources?

The presumption that the synthesis of 'defence' compounds in plants must incur some 'trade-off' or penalty in terms of annual crop yields has been used to explain observed inverse correlations between resistance to herbivores and rates of growth or photosynthesis. An analysis of the cost of making secondary compounds suggests that this accounts for only a small part of the overall carbon budget of annual crop plants. Even the highest reported amounts of secondary metabolites found in different crop species (flavonoids, allylisothiocyanates, hydroxamic acids, 2-tridecanone) represent a carbon demand that can be satisfied by less than an hour's photosynthesis. Similar considerations apply to secondary compounds containing nitrogen or sulphur, which are unlikely to represent a major investment compared to the cost of making proteins, the major demand for these elements. Decreases in growth and photosynthesis in response to stress are more likely the result of programmed down-regulation. Observed correlations between yield and low contents of unpalatable or toxic compounds may be the result of parallel selection during the refinement of crop species by humans.

The costs and consequences of parasitoid attack for the predatory hoverfly, Episyrphus balteatus

Question: What are the life-history costs for a predatory insect of surviving parasitoid attack, and can parasitoid attack alter predator-prey interactions? Hypotheses: Survivorship is influenced by host age. Hosts that suffer parasitoid attack grow more slowly and consume fewer prey. Those that survive attack are smaller as adults and show reduced survivorship. Organisms: The aphidophagous hoverfly Episyrphus balteatus, its endoparasitoid wasp Diplazon laetatorius and its prey, the pea aphid, Acyrthosiphon pisum. Site of experiments: All experiments were conducted in controlled temperature rooms and chambers in the laboratory. Methods: Episyrphus balteatus larvae of each instar were exposed to attack by Diplazon laetatorius, then dissected to measure the encapsulation response (a measure of immunity). Second instar larvae were either attacked or not attacked by D. laetatorius. Their development rates and numbers of prey consumed were noted. The size and survivorship of surviving (immune) and control hoverflies were compared following eclosion. Conclusions: Successful immune response increased with larval age (first instar 0%, second instar 40%, third instar 100% survival). Second instar larvae that successfully resisted parasitoid attack were larger as pupae (but not as adults) and showed reduced adult survivorship. Female adult survivors were more likely than male survivors to have died within 16 days of eclosion, but there was no difference between unattacked male and female control hoverflies. Attacked larvae, irrespective of immune status, consumed fewer aphids than unattacked individuals. Episyrphus balteatus suffers significant costs of resisting parasitoid attack, and parasitoid attack can reduce the top-down effects of an insect predator, irrespective of whether the host mounts an immune response or not.

Criticial determinants of construction tendering costs: Quantity surveyors' standpoint

Identification of cost-determinant variables and evaluation of their degree of influence play an essential role in building reliable cost models and enhance the competitive edge of quantity surveyors as well as contracting organisations. Sixty-seven variables affecting pre-tender construction cost estimates are identified through literature and interviews. These factors are grouped into six categories and a comparison analysis of their impact is conducted. Priority ranking of cost-influencing factors is carried out using a questionnaire survey commissioned amongst quantity surveyors based in the UK. Findings of this survey indicate that there is a strong agreement between quantity surveyors in ranking cost-influencing factors of construction projects. Comparisons between the outcomes of this research and other related studies are presented.

Enabling older people to stay at home: The costs of substituting and supplementing care with assistive technology

A wide-ranging multiprofessional research project explored issues relating to the introduction of assistive technology into the existing homes of older people in order to provide them with the opportunity to remain at home. The financial relationship between assistive technology and packages of formal care was also explored. The costs of residential care and those of a number of packages containing differing quantities of assistive technology, formal care and informal care were compared. The analyses provide a strong financial case for substituting and/or supplementing formal care with assistive technology, even for individuals with quite disabling conditions. Although needs and hence the cost of provision rise with an increasing level of disability, the savings in care costs accrue quickly. The consideration of a variety of users with different needs and informal care provision, and occupying a very wide range of housing, leads to the conclusion that in comparison with traditional care packages, at worst, incorporating significant amounts of assistive technology into care packages is cost neutral, but that with careful specification of assistive technology major savings are feasible.

The impact of procurement method on costs of procurement

Collaborative working methods offer the hope of reduced waste, lower tendering costs and improved outputs. The costs of tendering may be influenced by the introduction of different working methods. Transaction cost economics appears to offer an analytical framework for studying the costs of tendering, but it is more to do with providing explanations at the institutional/industry level, not at the level of individual projects. Surveys and interviews were carried out with small samples in UK. The data show that that while tendering costs are not necessarily higher in collaborative working arrangements, there is no correlation between costs of tendering and the way the work is organized. Practitioners perceive that the benefits of working in collaborative procurement routes far outweigh the costs. Tendering practices can be improved to avoid waste, and the suggested improvements include restricting selective tendering lists to 23 bidders, letting bidders know who they are competing with, reimbursing tendering costs for aborted projects and ensuring that timely and comprehensive information is provided to bidders.

Developing a system for assessing the costs associated with different procurement routes in the construction industry

In developing techniques for monitoring the costs associated with different procurement routes, the central task is disentangling the various project costs incurred by organizations taking part in construction projects. While all firms are familiar with the need to analyse their own costs, it is unusual to apply the same kind of analysis to projects. The purpose of this research is to examine the claims that new, ways of working such as strategic alliancing and partnering bring positive business benefits. This requires that costs associated with marketing, estimating, pricing, negotiation of terms, monitoring of performance and enforcement of contract are collected for a cross-section of projects under differing arrangements, and from those in the supply, chain from clients to consultants, contractors, subcontractors and suppliers. Collaboration with industrial partners forms the basis for developing a research instrument, bused on time sheets, which will be relevant for all those taking part in the work. The signs are that costs associated with,with tendering are highly variable, 1-15%, depending upon what precisely, is taken into account. The research to date reveals that there are mechanisms for measuring the costs of transactions and these will generate useful data for subsequent analysis.