Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

NEU-MODEL : a multi-level object-oriented dynamic emulation laboratory

Computational neuroscience aims to elucidate the mechanisms of neural information processing and population dynamics, through a methodology of incorporating biological data into complex mathematical models. Existing simulation environments model at a particular level of detail; none allow a multi-level approach to neural modelling. Moreover, most are not engineered to produce compute-efficient solutions, an important issue because sufficient processing power is a major impediment in the field. This project aims to apply modern software engineering techniques to create a flexible high performance neural modelling environment, which will allow rigorous exploration of model parameter effects, and modelling at multiple levels of abstraction.

Multi-level neural modelling : an application of object-oriented software engineering

Neu-Model, an ongoing project aimed at developing a neural simulation environment that is extremely computationally powerful and flexible, is described. It is shown that the use of good Software Engineering techniques in Neu-Model’s design and implementation is resulting in a high performance system that is powerful and flexible enough to allow rigorous exploration of brain function at a variety of conceptual levels.

Indicator Bats Program: A System for the Global Acoustic Monitoring of Bats

Bats are an important component of mammalian biodiversity and fill such a wide array of ecological niches that they may offer an important multisensory bioindicator role in assessing ecosystem health. There is a need to monitor population trends of bats for their own sake because many populations face numerous environmental threats related to climate change, habitat loss, fragmentation, hunting, and emerging diseases. To be able to establish bat ultrasonic biodiversity trends as a reliable indicator, it is important to standardize monitoring protocols, data management, and analyses. This chapter discusses the main issues to be considered in developing a bat ultrasonic indicator. It focuses on the results from indicator bats program (iBats), a system for the global acoustic monitoring of bats, in Eastern Europe. Finally, the chapter reviews the strengths and weaknesses of the Program and considers the opportunities and threats that it may face in the future.

Process engineering aspects of plasmid-based biopharmaceuticals production : tackling the threatening vaccine shortages to prevent global pandemics

Infectious diseases such as SARS, influenza and bird flu have the potential to cause global pandemics; a key intervention will be vaccination. Hence, it is imperative to have in place the capacity to create vaccines against new diseases in the shortest time possible. In 2004, The Institute of Medicine asserted that the world is tottering on the verge of a colossal influenza outbreak. The institute stated that, inadequate production system for influenza vaccines is a major obstruction in the preparation towards influenza outbreaks. Because of production issues, the vaccine industry is facing financial and technological bottlenecks: In October 2004, the FDA was caught off guard by the shortage of flu vaccine, caused by a contamination in a US-based plant (Chiron Corporation), one of the only two suppliers of US flu vaccine. Due to difficulties in production and long processing times, the bulk of the world's vaccine production comes from very small number of companies compared to the number of companies producing drugs. Conventional vaccines are made of attenuated or modified forms of viruses. Relatively high and continuous doses are administered when a non-viable vaccine is used and the overall protective immunity obtained is ephemeral. The safety concerns of viral vaccines have propelled interest in creating a viable replacement that would be more effective and safer to use.

Social audits and global clothing supply chains : some observations

This study provides some preliminary insight in relation to the use of social audits by the global clothing and retail companies that source garment products from developing nations. In the era of globalisation, companies based in developed nations have transferred their production locations to many parts of the developing nations. At the same time, there are widespread global stakeholder concerns about the use of child labour, inadequate health and safety standards and poor working conditions at many of these production locations. Social audits appear to be a tool used by companies to monitor working conditions and to ensure that manufacturing takes place in a humane working environment. The study finds that companies use social auditing in order to maintain their legitimacy within the wider community.

Social Compliance Accounting : Managing Legitimacy in Global Supply Chains

This book covers key discussions involving major US and European multinational companies (MNCs) that source products from suppliers in developing countries. Due to the transfer of production from developed to developing nations, there is an urgent need to establish social compliance as a new form of Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) and a means by which MNCs can meet expected social standards. The cases described are internationally relevant and can be seen to reflect or represent the behavior of many MNCs and their suppliers in developing nations. The discussion offers essential insights into how different levels of social compliance risk and pressure (including broader stakeholder concerns) move managers to adopt or embrace particular social compliance accounting, reporting and auditing strategies. The book will help readers to understand the major concerns, challenges and dilemmas faced by management in the supply chains of MNCs, and proposes measures that can be taken to resolve those dilemmas. Most importantly, it develops a systematic method of assessing the social compliance performance of suppliers to MNCs. This includes highly detailed accounts of the social compliance performance of suppliers within the clothing industry (in a developing nation) that supply goods to the extensive US and European markets. The book offers a valuable guide, not only for corporate managers but also for practitioners, researchers, academics, and undergraduate and postgraduate business students.

The influence of internal load density on the energy and thermal performance of air-conditioned office buildings in the face of global warming

Internal heat sources may not only consume energy directly through their operation (e.g. lighting), but also contribute to building cooling or heating loads, which indirectly change building cooling and heating energy. Through the use of building simulation technique, this paper investigates the influence of building internal load densities on the energy and thermal performance of air conditioned office buildings in Australia. Case studies for air conditioned office buildings in major Australian capital cities are presented. It is found that with a decrease of internal load density in lighting and/or plug load, both the building cooling load and total energy use can be significantly reduced. Their effect on overheating hour reduction would be dependent on the local climate. In particular, it is found that if the building total internal load density is reduced from the base case of “medium” to “extra–low, the building total energy use under the future 2070 high scenario can be reduced by up to 89 to 120 kWh/m² per annum and the overheating problem could be completely avoided. It is suggested that the reduction in building internal load densities could be adopted as one of adaptation strategies for buildings in face of the future global warming.

The Why, What, and How of Global Biodiversity Indicators Beyond the 2010 Target

The 2010 biodiversity target agreed by signatories to the Convention on Biological Diversity directed the attention of conservation professionals toward the development of indicators with which to measure changes in biological diversity at the global scale. We considered why global biodiversity indicators are needed, what characteristics successful global indicators have, and how existing indicators perform. Because monitoring could absorb a large proportion of funds available for conservation, we believe indicators should be linked explicitly to monitoring objectives and decisions about which monitoring schemes deserve funding should be informed by predictions of the value of such schemes to decision making. We suggest that raising awareness among the public and policy makers, auditing management actions, and informing policy choices are the most important global monitoring objectives. Using four well-developed indicators of biological diversity (extent of forests, coverage of protected areas, Living Planet Index, Red List Index) as examples, we analyzed the characteristics needed for indicators to meet these objectives. We recommend that conservation professionals improve on existing indicators by eliminating spatial biases in data availability, fill gaps in information about ecosystems other than forests, and improve understanding of the way indicators respond to policy changes. Monitoring is not an end in itself, and we believe it is vital that the ultimate objectives of global monitoring of biological diversity inform development of new indicators. ©2010 Society for Conservation Biology.

The Reef Cycle: Engaging in creativity and global awareness

This is a report of a musical theatre production performed at QUT Gardens Point Campus in November 2014 for the occasion of the end of year Annual Art Exhibition and concert of the Post graduate research students. Both the performance and the exhibition focused on environmental issues especially in relation to coal and coral in Queensland. The poster was prepared by Stephen Bennett former student in Creative Industries.

Histogram matching and global initialization for laser-only SLAM in large unstructured environments

This paper presents an enhanced algorithm for matching laser scan maps using histogram correlations. The histogram representation effectively summarizes a map's salient features such that pairs of maps can be matched efficiently without any prior guess as to their alignment. The histogram matching algorithm has been enhanced in order to work well in outdoor unstructured environments by using entropy metrics, weighted histograms and proper thresholding of quality metrics. Thus our large-scale scan-matching SLAM implementation has a vastly improved ability to close large loops in real-time even when odometry is not available. Our experimental results have demonstrated a successful mapping of the largest area ever mapped to date using only a single laser scanner. We also demonstrate our ability to solve the lost robot problem by localizing a robot to a previously built map without any prior initialization.