Tropospheric planetary wave dynamics and mixture modeling: Two preferred regimes and a regime shift

Investigation of preferred structures of planetary wave dynamics is addressed using multivariate Gaussian mixture models. The number of components in the mixture is obtained using order statistics of the mixing proportions, hence avoiding previous difficulties related to sample sizes and independence issues. The method is first applied to a few low-order stochastic dynamical systems and data from a general circulation model. The method is next applied to winter daily 500-hPa heights from 1949 to 2003 over the Northern Hemisphere. A spatial clustering algorithm is first applied to the leading two principal components (PCs) and shows significant clustering. The clustering is particularly robust for the first half of the record and less for the second half. The mixture model is then used to identify the clusters. Two highly significant extratropical planetary-scale preferred structures are obtained within the first two to four EOF state space. The first pattern shows a Pacific-North American (PNA) pattern and a negative North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the second pattern is nearly opposite to the first one. It is also observed that some subspaces show multivariate Gaussianity, compatible with linearity, whereas others show multivariate non-Gaussianity. The same analysis is also applied to two subperiods, before and after 1978, and shows a similar regime behavior, with a slight stronger support for the first subperiod. In addition a significant regime shift is also observed between the two periods as well as a change in the shape of the distribution. The patterns associated with the regime shifts reflect essentially a PNA pattern and an NAO pattern consistent with the observed global warming effect on climate and the observed shift in sea surface temperature around the mid-1970s.

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool: a simple model of diffuse P loss from agricultural land to water

The Phosphorus Indicators Tool provides a catchment-scale estimation of diffuse phosphorus (P) loss from agricultural land to surface waters using the most appropriate indicators of P loss. The Tool provides a framework that may be applied across the UK to estimate P loss, which is sensitive not only to land use and management but also to environmental factors such as climate, soil type and topography. The model complexity incorporated in the P Indicators Tool has been adapted to the level of detail in the available data and the need to reflect the impact of changes in agriculture. Currently, the Tool runs on an annual timestep and at a 1 km(2) grid scale. We demonstrate that the P Indicators Tool works in principle and that its modular structure provides a means of accounting for P loss from one layer to the next, and ultimately to receiving waters. Trial runs of the Tool suggest that modelled P delivery to water approximates measured water quality records. The transparency of the structure of the P Indicators Tool means that identification of poorly performing coefficients is possible, and further refinements of the Tool can be made to ensure it is better calibrated and subsequently validated against empirical data, as it becomes available.

Understanding land-sea warming contrast in response to increasing greenhouse gases. Part I: Transient adjustment

Climate model simulations consistently show that surface temperature over land increases more rapidly than over sea in response to greenhouse gas forcing. The enhanced warming over land is not simply a transient effect caused by the land–sea contrast in heat capacities, since it is also present in equilibrium conditions. This paper elucidates the transient adjustment processes over time scales of days to weeks of the surface and tropospheric climate in response to a doubling of CO2 and to changes in sea surface temperature (SST), imposed separately and together, using ensembles of experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model. These adjustment processes can be grouped into three stages: immediate response of the troposphere and surface processes (day 1), fast adjustment of surface processes (days 2–5), and adjustment of the whole troposphere (days 6–20). Some land surface warming in response to doubled CO2 (with unchanged SSTs) occurs immediately because of increased downward longwave radiation. Increased CO2 also leads to reduced plant stomatal resistance and hence restricted evaporation, which increases land surface warming in the first day. Rapid reductions in cloud amount lead in the next few days to increased downward shortwave radiation and further warming, which spreads upward from the surface, and by day 5 the surface and tropospheric response is statistically consistent with the equilibrium value. Land surface warming in response to imposed SST change (with unchanged CO2) is slower. Tropospheric warming is advected inland from the sea, and over land it occurs at all levels together rather than spreading upward from the surface. The atmospheric response to prescribed SST change in about 20 days is statistically consistent with the equilibrium value, and the warming is largest in the upper troposphere over both land and sea. The land surface warming involves reduction of cloud cover and increased downward shortwave radiation, as in the experiment with CO2 change, but in this case it is due to the restriction of moisture supply to the land (indicated by reduced soil moisture), whereas in the CO2 forcing experiment it is due to restricted evaporation despite increased moisture supply (indicated by increased soil moisture). The warming over land in response to SST change is greater than over the sea and is the dominant contribution to the land–sea warming contrast under enhanced CO2 forcing.

The role of eddies in driving the tropospheric response to stratospheric heating perturbations

A simplified general circulation model has been used to investigate the chain of causality whereby changes in tropospheric circulation and temperature are produced in response to stratospheric heating perturbations. Spinup ensemble experiments have been performed to examine the evolution of the tropospheric circulation in response to such perturbations. The primary aim of these experiments is to investigate the possible mechanisms whereby a tropospheric response to changing solar activity over the 11-yr solar cycle could be produced in response to heating of the equatorial lower stratosphere. This study therefore focuses on a stratospheric heating perturbation in which the heating is largest in the tropics. For comparison, experiments are also performed in which the stratosphere is heated uniformly at all latitudes and in which it is heated preferentially in the polar region. Thus, the mechanisms discussed have a wider relevance for the impact of stratospheric perturbations on the troposphere. The results demonstrate the importance of changing eddy momentum fluxes in driving the tropospheric response. This is confirmed by the lack of a similar response in a zonally symmetric model with fixed eddy forcing. Furthermore, it is apparent that feedback between the tropospheric eddy fluxes and tropospheric circulation changes is required to produce the full model response. The quasigeostrophic index of refraction is used to diagnose the cause of the changes in eddy behavior. It is demonstrated that the latitudinal extent of stratospheric heating is important in determining the direction of displacement of the tropospheric jet and storm track.

The zonal asymmetry of the Southern Hemisphere storm-track

Atmospheric general circulation model experiments have been performed to investigate how the significant zonal asymmetry in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) winter storm track is forced by sea surface temperature (SST) and orography. An experiment with zonally symmetric tropical SSTs expands the SH upper-tropospheric storm track poleward and eastward and destroys its spiral structure. Diagnosis suggests that these aspects of the observed storm track result from Rossby wave propagation from a wave source in the Indian Ocean region associated with the monsoon there. The lower-tropospheric storm track is not sensitive to this forcing. However, an experiment with zonally symmetric midlatitude SSTs exhibits a marked reduction in the magnitude of the maximum intensity of the lower-tropospheric storm track associated with reduced SST gradients in the western Indian Ocean. Experiments without the elevation of the South African Plateau or the Andes show reductions in the intensity of the major storm track downstream of them due to reduced cyclogenesis associated with the topography. These results suggest that the zonal asymmetry of the SH winter storm track is mainly established by stationary waves excited by zonal asymmetry in tropical SST in the upper troposphere and by local SST gradients in the lower troposphere, and that it is modified through cyclogenesis associated with the topography of South Africa and South America.

The meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean, and the influence of the east African highlands

This paper reviews the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean and uses a state–of–the–art atmospheric general circulation model to investigate the influence of the East African Highlands on the climate of the Indian Ocean and its surrounding regions. The new 44–year re–analysis produced by the European Centre for Medium range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) has been used to construct a new climatology of the Western Indian Ocean. A brief overview of the seasonal cycle of the Western Indian Ocean is presented which emphasizes the importance of the geography of the Indian Ocean basin for controlling the meteorology of the Western Indian Ocean. The principal modes of inter–annual variability are described, associated with El Niño and the Indian Ocean Dipole or Zonal Mode, and the basic characteristics of the subseasonal weather over the Western Indian Ocean are presented, including new statistics on cyclone tracks derived from the ECMWF re–analyses. Sensitivity experiments, in which the orographic effects of East Africa are removed, have shown that the East African Highlands, although not very high, play a significant role in the climate of Africa, India and Southeast Asia, and in the heat, salinity and momentum forcing of the Western Indian Ocean. The hydrological cycle over Africa is systematically enhanced in all seasons by the presence of the East African Highlands, and during the Asian summer monsoon there is a major redistribution of the rainfall across India and Southeast Asia. The implied impact of the East African Highlands on the ocean is substantial. The East African Highlands systematically freshen the tropical Indian Ocean, and act to focus the monsoon winds along the coast, leading to greater upwelling and cooler sea–surface temperatures.

Evaluation of the S(T) assimilation method with the Argo dataset

Recent observations from the Argo dataset of temperature and salinity profiles are used to evaluate a series of 3-year data assimilation experiments in a global ice–ocean general circulation model. The experiments are designed to evaluate a new data assimilation system whereby salinity is assimilated along isotherms, S(T ). In addition, the role of a balancing salinity increment to maintain water mass properties is investigated. This balancing increment is found to effectively prevent spurious mixing in tropical regions induced by univariate temperature assimilation, allowing the correction of isotherm geometries without adversely influencing temperature–salinity relationships. In addition, the balancing increment is able to correct a fresh bias associated with a weak subtropical gyre in the North Atlantic using only temperature observations. The S(T ) assimilation method is found to provide an important improvement over conventional depth level assimilation, with lower root-mean-squared forecast errors over the upper 500 m in the tropical Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. An additional set of experiments is performed whereby Argo data are withheld and used for independent evaluation. The most significant improvements from Argo assimilation are found in less well-observed regions (Indian, South Atlantic and South Pacific Oceans). When Argo salinity data are assimilated in addition to temperature, improvements to modelled temperature fields are obtained due to corrections to model density gradients and the resulting circulation. It is found that observations from the Argo array provide an invaluable tool for both correcting modelled water mass properties through data assimilation and for evaluating the assimilation methods themselves.

Parameter estimation using a particle method: inferring mixing coefficients from sea level observations

This paper presents a first attempt to estimate mixing parameters from sea level observations using a particle method based on importance sampling. The method is applied to an ensemble of 128 members of model simulations with a global ocean general circulation model of high complexity. Idealized twin experiments demonstrate that the method is able to accurately reconstruct mixing parameters from an observed mean sea level field when mixing is assumed to be spatially homogeneous. An experiment with inhomogeneous eddy coefficients fails because of the limited ensemble size. This is overcome by the introduction of local weighting, which is able to capture spatial variations in mixing qualitatively. As the sensitivity of sea level for variations in mixing is higher for low values of mixing coefficients, the method works relatively well in regions of low eddy activity.

Northern hemisphere snow: measurement, modelling and predictability

Northern hemisphere snow water equivalent (SWE) distribution from remote sensing (SSM/I), the ERA40 reanalysis product and the HadCM3 general circulation model are compared. Large differences are seen in the February climatologies, particularly over Siberia. The SSM/I retrieval algorithm may be overestimating SWE in this region, while comparison with independent runoff estimates suggest that HadCM3 is underestimating SWE. Treatment of snow grain size and vegetation parameterizations are concerns with the remotely sensed data. For this reason, ERA40 is used as `truth' for the following experiments. Despite the climatology differences, HadCM3 is able to reproduce the distribution of ERA40 SWE anomalies when assimilating ERA40 anomaly fields of temperature, sea level pressure, atmospheric winds and ocean temperature and salinity. However when forecasts are released from these assimilated initial states, the SWE anomaly distribution diverges rapidly from that of ERA40. No predictability is seen from one season to another. Strong links between European SWE distribution and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are seen, but forecasts of this index by the assimilation scheme are poor. Longer term relationships between SWE and the NAO, and SWE and the El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) are also investigated in a multi-century run of HadCM3. SWE is impacted by ENSO in the Himalayas and North America, while the NAO affects SWE in North America and Europe. While significant connections with the NAO index were only present in DJF (and to an extent SON), the link between ENSO and February SWE distribution was seen to exist from the previous JJA ENSO index onwards. This represents a long lead time for SWE prediction for hydrological applications such as flood and wildfire forecasting. Further work is required to develop reliable large scale observation-based SWE datasets with which to test these model-derived connections.

Transient teleconnection event at the onset of a planet-encircling dust storm on Mars

We use proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) to study a transient teleconnection event at the onset of the 2001 planet-encircling dust storm on Mars, in terms of empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs). There are several differences between this and previous studies of atmospheric events using EOFs. First, instead of using a single variable such as surface pressure or geopotential height on a given pressure surface, we use a dataset describing the evolution in time of global and fully three-dimensional atmospheric fields such as horizontal velocity and temperature. These fields are produced by assimilating Thermal Emission Spectrometer observations from NASA's Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft into a Mars general circulation model. We use total atmospheric energy (TE) as a physically meaningful quantity which weights the state variables. Second, instead of adopting the EOFs to define teleconnection patterns as planetary-scale correlations that explain a large portion of long time-scale variability, we use EOFs to understand transient processes due to localised heating perturbations that have implications for the atmospheric circulation over distant regions. The localised perturbation is given by anomalous heating due to the enhanced presence of dust around the northern edge of the Hellas Planitia basin on Mars. We show that the localised disturbance is seemingly restricted to a small number (a few tens) of EOFs. These can be classified as low-order, transitional, or high-order EOFs according to the TE amount they explain throughout the event. Despite the global character of the EOFs, they show the capability of accounting for the localised effects of the perturbation via the presence of specific centres of action. We finally discuss possible applications for the study of terrestrial phenomena with similar characteristics.