Fractional Integration of the Price-Dividend Ratio in a Present-Value Model of Stock Prices

We re-examine the dynamics of returns and dividend growth within the present-value framework of stock prices. We find that the finite sample order of integration of returns is approximately equal to the order of integration of the first-differenced price-dividend ratio. As such, the traditional return forecasting regressions based on the price-dividend ratio are invalid. Moreover, the nonstationary long memory behaviour of the price-dividend ratio induces antipersistence in returns. This suggests that expected returns should be modelled as an AFIRMA process and we show this improves the forecast ability of the present-value model in-sample and out-of-sample.

Toxicological and toxicogenetic effects of plants used in popular medicine and in cattle food

Toxicological and toxicogenetic effects of aqueous (tea) and hexanica fruit extract of Indigofera suffruticosa Mill, and hydroalcoholic root extract od Solanum agrarium Stendt. Were evaluated in Balb C male mice intraperitoneally exposed. A hepatotoxic effect was observed just for animals treated with aqueous fruit extract of I. suffruticosa. In relation to the toxicogenetic effect, just the group trreated with 12.5% of toxic dose of aqueous fruit extract of I. suffruticosa showed a statistically significant increase in the frequency of cells with chromosome aberrations (cytogenetic effect), although a slight increase was also observed for the highest dose (25% of LF50_ of hydroalcoholic root extract of S. agrarium. The results obtanied show that before S. agrarium is used as medicine and before the wide use of I. suffruticosa in cattle food, careful evaluation must be done.

Les préférences alimentaires sont-elles influencées par l'index de masse corporelle, l'âge, le sexe ou le tabac [Are food preferences affected by body mass index, age, sex or tobacco?].

In recent decades the percentage of energy derived from dietary fat has increased. The aim of this study was to explore the relationship between food taste preferences, BMI, age, gender and smoking habits. A computerized questionnaire using a hedonic scale (range 0 to 8) to quantify the liking for sweet and savoury, lean and fat foods, was filled by 233 adults: 171 normal weight (131 women, 40 men) and 62 overweight subjects (BMI > 25 kg/m2 42 women, 20 men). The majority of the subjects had a general preference for savoury lean food irrespective of their BMI or gender. Similarly, preference for sweet lean food was not influenced by the magnitude of the BMI. In contrast, overweight subjects had a preference for sweet fat food (p = 0.05) as well as for savoury fat food (p < 0.05). At any age or BMI, men preferred sweet fat food (p < 0.01). This was not the case for women. Overweight men over forty preferred savoury fat food, in contrast to overweight women of the same age (p < 0.01). The same difference existed between normal weight smokers and non-smokers. This study demonstrates that fat food preference plays a potential role in the development of obesity.

Combining food web and species distribution models for improved community projections

The ability to model biodiversity patterns is of prime importance in this era of severe environmental crisis. Species assemblage along environmental gradient is subject to the interplay of biotic interactions in complement to abiotic environmental filtering. Accounting for complex biotic interactions for a wide array of species remains so far challenging. Here, we propose to use food web models that can infer the potential interaction links between species as a constraint in species distribution models. Using a plant-herbivore (butterfly) interaction dataset, we demonstrate that this combined approach is able to improve both species distribution and community forecasts. Most importantly, this combined approach is very useful in rendering models of more generalist species that have multiple potential interaction links, where gap in the literature may be recurrent. Our combined approach points a promising direction forward to model the spatial variation of entire species interaction networks. Our work has implications for studies of range shifting species and invasive species biology where it may be unknown how a given biota might interact with a potential invader or in future climate.

The Visual Dysphagia Questionnaire: Piloting a New Tool for Assessing Food Consistency-Dependent Dysphagia in Eosinophilic Esophagitis

Background and Aims: The international EEsAI study group is currently developing the first activity index specific for Eosinophilic Esophagitis (EoE). None of the existing dysphagia questionnaires takes into account the consistency of the ingested food that considerably impacts the symptom presentation. Goal: To develop an EoE-specific questionnaire assessing dysphagia associated with different food consistencies. Methods: Based on patient chart reviews, an expert panel (EEsAI study group) identified internationally standardized food prototypes typically associated with EoE-related dysphagia. Food consistencies were correlated with EoE-related dysphagia, also considering potential food avoidance. This Visual Dysphagia Questionnaire (VDQ) was then tested, as a pilot, in 10 EoE patients. Results: The following 9 food consistency prototypes were identified: water, soft foods (pudding, jelly), grits, toast bread, French fries, dry rice, ground meat, raw fibrous foods (eg. apple, carrot), solid meat. Dysphagia was ranked on a 5-point Likert scale (0=no difficulties, 5=very severe difficulties, food will not pass). Severity of dysphagia in the 10 EoE patients was related to the eosinophil load and presence of esophageal strictures. Conclusions: The VDQ will be the first EoE-specific tool for assessing dysphagia related to internationally defined food consistencies. It performed well in a pilot study and will now be further evaluated in a cohort study including 100 adult and 100 pediatric EoE patients.

Oil price shocks and labor market fluctuations

We examine the impact of real oil price shocks on labor market flows in the U.S. We first use smooth transition regression (STR) models to investigate to what extent oil prices can be considered as a driving force of labor market fluctuations. Then we develop and calibrate a modified version of Pissarides' (2000) model with energy costs, which we simulate in response to shocks mimicking the behavior of the actual oil price shocks. We find that (i) these shocks are an important driving force of job market flows; (ii) the job finding probability is the main transmission mechanism of such shocks; and (iii) they bring a new amplification mechanism for the volatility and should thus be seen as complementary of labor productivity shocks. Overall we conclude that shocks in oil prices cannot be neglected in explaining cyclical labor adjustments in the U.S.

Theoretical estimates of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in larvae of Chrysomya putoria (Diptera: Calliphoridae)

An indirect estimate of consumable food and probability of acquiring food in a blowfly species, Chrysomya putoria, is presented. This alternative procedure combines three distinct models to estimate consumable food in the context of the exploitative competition experienced by immature individuals in blowfly populations. The relevant parameters are derived from data for pupal weight and survival and estimates of density-independent larval mortality in twenty different larval densities. As part of this procedure, the probability of acquiring food per unit of time and the time taken to exhaust the food supply are also calculated. The procedure employed here may be valuable for estimations in insects whose immature stages develop inside the food substrate, where it is difficult to partial out confounding effects such as separation of faeces. This procedure also has the advantage of taking into account the population dynamics of immatures living under crowded conditions, which are particularly characteristic of blowflies and other insects as well.

What if there was a stronger pharmaceutical price competition in Spain? When regulation has a similar effect to collusion

This paper examines statins competition in the Spanish pharmaceutical market, where prices are highly regulated, and simulates a situation in which there is unrestricted price competition. A nested logit demand model is estimated with a panel of monthly data for pharmaceuticals prescribed from 1997 to 2005. The simulation indicates that the regulation of prices is similar in its effects to cooperation among producers, since the regulated prices are close to those that would be observed in a scenario of perfect collusion. Freedom to set prices and a regulatory framework with appropriate incentives would result in a general reduction in prices and may make the current veiled competition in the form of discounts to pharmacists become more visible. The decrease in prices would be partially offset by an increase in consumption but the net effect would be an overall decrease in expenditure. The counterfactual set-up would also lead to important changes in the market shares of both manufacturers and active ingredients, and a reversal of generic drugs. Therefore, pro-competitive regulation would be welfare-enhancing but would imply winners and losers.

Generic drugs in Spain: price competition vs. moral hazard

This paper examines competition between generic and brand-name drugs in the regulated Spanish pharmaceutical market. A nested logit demand model is specified for the three most consumed therapeutic subgroups in Spain: statins (anticholesterol), selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (antidepressants) and proton pump inhibitors (antiulcers). The model is estimated with instrumental variables from a panel of monthly prescription data from 1999 to 2005. The dataset distinguishes between three different levels of patients’ copayments within the prescriptions and the results show that the greater the level of insurance that the patient has (and therefore the lower the patient’s copayment), the lower the proportion of generic prescriptions made by physicians. It seems that the low level of copayment has delayed the penetration of generics into the Spanish market. Additionally, the estimation of the demand model suggests that the substitution rules and promotional efforts associated with the reference pricing system have increased generic market share, and that being among the first generic entrants has an additional positive effect.

Plasmodium falciparum: nitric oxide modulates heme speciation in isolated food vacuoles.

Nitric oxide (NO) and NO-derived reactive nitrogen species (RNS) are present in the food vacuole (FV) of Plasmodium falciparum trophozoites. The product of PFL1555w, a putative cytochrome b(5), localizes in the FV membrane, similar to what was previously observed for the product of PF13_0353, a putative cytochrome b(5) reductase. These two gene products may contribute to NO generation by denitrification chemistry from nitrate and/or nitrite present in the erythrocyte cytosol. The possible coordination of NO to heme species present in the food vacuole was probed by resonance Raman spectroscopy. The spectroscopic data revealed that in situ generated NO interacts with heme inside the intact FVs to form ferrous heme nitrosyl complexes that influence intra-vacuolar heme solubility. The formation of heme nitrosyl complexes within the FV is a previously unrecognized factor that could affect the equilibrium between soluble and crystallized heme within the FV in vivo.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990s

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product e¤ects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market.

Age effects, unobserved characteristics and hedonic price indexes: The Spanish car market in the 1990's

This paper computes and compares alternative quality-adjusted price indexes for new cars in Spain in the period 1990-2000. The proposed hedonic approach simultaneously controls for time-invariant unobserved product effects and time-variant unobserved quality changes, that are assumed to be captured by model age effects. The results show that the non-adjusted price index largely overstates the increase in the cost of living induced by changes in car prices and that previous evidence for this market have not measured the real extent of that bias, probably due to the omission of controls for unobservables. It is also shown that omitting age effects can also lead to misleading conclusions. The estimated price indexes give also some insights on what could have been the determinants of price evolution in the Spanish car market. JEL classi…fication numbers: C43, E31, L11, L13, Keywords: Hedonic price indexes, Spanish car market, car prices, CPI, Cost of living