Performance-Based Engineering Framework for Earthquake and Fire Following Earthquake

The objective for this thesis is to outline a Performance-Based Engineering (PBE) framework to address the multiple hazards of Earthquake (EQ) and subsequent Fire Following Earthquake (FFE). Currently, fire codes for the United States are largely empirical and prescriptive in nature. The reliance on prescriptive requirements makes quantifying sustained damage due to fire difficult. Additionally, the empirical standards have resulted from individual member or individual assembly furnace testing, which have been shown to differ greatly from full structural system behavior. The very nature of fire behavior (ignition, growth, suppression, and spread) is fundamentally difficult to quantify due to the inherent randomness present in each stage of fire development. The study of interactions between earthquake damage and fire behavior is also in its infancy with essentially no available empirical testing results. This thesis will present a literature review, a discussion, and critique of the state-of-the-art, and a summary of software currently being used to estimate loss due to EQ and FFE. A generalized PBE framework for EQ and subsequent FFE is presented along with a combined hazard probability to performance objective matrix and a table of variables necessary to fully implement the proposed framework. Future research requirements and summary are also provided with discussions of the difficulties inherent in adequately describing the multiple hazards of EQ and FFE.

Concept Fire Truck

A prototype Concept Fire Truck was designed using Autodesk Inventor 3D Design Software. Various pictures of old-time and toy fire trucks were utilized for this project. The prototype was printed using a 3D printer to verify that all parts of the truck would fit and work as intended.

Developing Higher-level Cognitive Skills In a Fire Protection Course

In an ideal world, all instructors of safety and health courses would be masters of course subject matter as well as the theories and practices for effective teaching. In practice, however, most instructors are much stronger in one or the other. This paper provides an example of how some fundamental knowledge from educational experts can be useful for improving a traditional safety course. Is there a problem with the way traditional safety and health (S&H) courses are taught? It is asserted by this author that S&H education, in general, places too much emphasis on acquisition and comprehension of facts at the expense of helping students develop higher-level cognitive abilities. This paper explains the basis for the assertion and reports an experience upgrading a traditional fire protection course to include more assignments involving the higher-level ability known in the education community as synthesis.

Strengthening a Traditional Fire Protection Course by Using Fault Trees

Traditional courses and textbooks in occupational safety emphasize rules, standards, and guidelines. This paper describes the early stage of a project to upgrade a traditional college course on fire protection by incorporating learning materials to develop the higher-level cognitive ability known as synthesis. Students will be challenged to synthesize textbook information into fault tree diagrams. The paper explains the place of synthesis in Bloom’s taxonomy of cognitive abilities and the utility of fault trees diagrams as a tool for synthesis. The intended benefits for students are: improved abilities to synthesize, a deeper understanding of fire protection practices, ability to construct fault trees for a wide range of undesired occurrences, and perhaps recognition that heavy reliance on memorization is the hard way to learn occupational safety and health.

Disagreements in meta-analyses using outcomes measured on continuous or rating scales: observer agreement study

OBJECTIVE: To study the inter-observer variation related to extraction of continuous and numerical rating scale data from trial reports for use in meta-analyses. DESIGN: Observer agreement study. DATA SOURCES: A random sample of 10 Cochrane reviews that presented a result as a standardised mean difference (SMD), the protocols for the reviews and the trial reports (n=45) were retrieved. DATA EXTRACTION: Five experienced methodologists and five PhD students independently extracted data from the trial reports for calculation of the first SMD result in each review. The observers did not have access to the reviews but to the protocols, where the relevant outcome was highlighted. The agreement was analysed at both trial and meta-analysis level, pairing the observers in all possible ways (45 pairs, yielding 2025 pairs of trials and 450 pairs of meta-analyses). Agreement was defined as SMDs that differed less than 0.1 in their point estimates or confidence intervals. RESULTS: The agreement was 53% at trial level and 31% at meta-analysis level. Including all pairs, the median disagreement was SMD=0.22 (interquartile range 0.07-0.61). The experts agreed somewhat more than the PhD students at trial level (61% v 46%), but not at meta-analysis level. Important reasons for disagreement were differences in selection of time points, scales, control groups, and type of calculations; whether to include a trial in the meta-analysis; and data extraction errors made by the observers. In 14 out of the 100 SMDs calculated at the meta-analysis level, individual observers reached different conclusions than the originally published review. CONCLUSIONS: Disagreements were common and often larger than the effect of commonly used treatments. Meta-analyses using SMDs are prone to observer variation and should be interpreted with caution. The reliability of meta-analyses might be improved by having more detailed review protocols, more than one observer, and statistical expertise.

Four thousand years of vegetation and fire history in the spruce forests of northern Kyrgyzstan (Kungey Alatau, Central Asia)

Analyses of pollen, macrofossils and microscopic charcoal in the sediment of a small sub-alpine lake (Karakol, Kyrgyzstan) provide new data to reconstruct the vegetation history of the Kungey Alatau spruce forest during the late-Holocene, i.e. the past 4,000 years. The pollen data suggest that Picea schrenkiana F. and M. was the dominant tree in this region from the beginning of the record. The pollen record of pronounced die-backs of the forests, along with lithostratigraphical evidence, points to possible climatic cooling (and/or drying) around 3,800 cal year B.P., and between 3,350 and 2,520 cal year B.P., with a culmination at 2,800-2,600 cal B.P., although stable climatic conditions are reported for this region for the past 3,000-4,000 years in previous studies. From 2,500 to 190 cal year B.P. high pollen values of P. schrenkiana suggest rather closed and dense forests under the environmental conditions of that time. A marked decline in spruce forests occurred with the onset of modern human activities in the region from 190 cal year B.P. These results show that the present forests are anthropogenically reduced and represent only about half of their potential natural extent. As P. schrenkiana is a species endemic to the western Tien Shan, it is most likely that its refugium was confined to this region. However, our palaeoecological record is too recent to address this hypothesis thoroughly.

Reference photographs for nasolabial appearance rating in unilateral cleft lip and palate

A popular method for nasolabial rating in unilateral cleft lip and palate (UCLP) is the Asher-McDade system consisting of a 5-point ordinal scale assessing nasal form, nasal symmetry, nasal profile, and vermilion border. The aim of the current study was to identify reference photographs illustrating this scale to facilitate its use.Four observers assessed nasolabial appearance on frontal and profile photographs of the nasolabial area of 42 children of Caucasian origin with a repaired UCLP at age 9 years. Cronbachs alpha, based on the individual scores of the 4 observers, ranged from 0.73 to 0.82 for the 4 nasolabial ratings, indicating a good reliability. The reliability of the overall score (mean of the 4 component scores) was also high (Cronbachs alpha, 0.83). Both for the nasolabial component ratings and for the overall score, duplicate measurement errors were small. The reliability for the mean of the 4 observers' scores was good, Spearman rank correlation coefficients ranging from 0.56 to 0.96.Subsequently, photographs were selected that showed the highest agreement among observers. For each of the 4 components (eg, nasal form, nasal deviation, nasal profile, and shape of the vermilion border), 5 photographs were selected to illustrate the whole range of the scale (score, 1-5), resulting in the selection of 20 pictures.It was concluded that nasolabial appearance rating can be performed reliably using a panel of judges and averaging the scores of all observers. Reference photographs, as developed from this study, may facilitate the rating task.