Comparing meta-analysis and ecological-longitudinal analysis in time-series studies: a case study of the effects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities

The objective of this paper is to introduce a diVerent approach, called the ecological-longitudinal, to carrying out pooled analysis in time series ecological studies. Because it gives a larger number of data points and, hence, increases the statistical power of the analysis, this approach, unlike conventional ones, allows the complementation of aspects such as accommodation of random effect models, of lags, of interaction between pollutants and between pollutants and meteorological variables, that are hardly implemented in conventional approaches. Design—The approach is illustrated by providing quantitative estimates of the short-termeVects of air pollution on mortality in three Spanish cities, Barcelona,Valencia and Vigo, for the period 1992–1994. Because the dependent variable was a count, a Poisson generalised linear model was first specified. Several modelling issues are worth mentioning. Firstly, because the relations between mortality and explanatory variables were nonlinear, cubic splines were used for covariate control, leading to a generalised additive model, GAM. Secondly, the effects of the predictors on the response were allowed to occur with some lag. Thirdly, the residual autocorrelation, because of imperfect control, was controlled for by means of an autoregressive Poisson GAM. Finally, the longitudinal design demanded the consideration of the existence of individual heterogeneity, requiring the consideration of mixed models. Main results—The estimates of the relative risks obtained from the individual analyses varied across cities, particularly those associated with sulphur dioxide. The highest relative risks corresponded to black smoke in Valencia. These estimates were higher than those obtained from the ecological-longitudinal analysis. Relative risks estimated from this latter analysis were practically identical across cities, 1.00638 (95% confidence intervals 1.0002, 1.0011) for a black smoke increase of 10 μg/m3 and 1.00415 (95% CI 1.0001, 1.0007) for a increase of 10 μg/m3 of sulphur dioxide. Because the statistical power is higher than in the individual analysis more interactions were statistically significant,especially those among air pollutants and meteorological variables. Conclusions—Air pollutant levels were related to mortality in the three cities of the study, Barcelona, Valencia and Vigo. These results were consistent with similar studies in other cities, with other multicentric studies and coherent with both, previous individual, for each city, and multicentric studies for all three cities

Ecological analysis of periphytic diatoms in Mediterranean coastal wetlands (Empordà wetlands, NE Spain)

S'han estudiat els efectes dels factors ambientals sobre el perífiton dels sistemes lenític fluctuants del aiguamolls de l'Empordà. L'estudi s'ha realitzat als tres nivells d'integració: nivell d'ecosistema considerant el rol del perífiton envers els altres productors primaris; a nivell de comunitat, estudiant la composició específica de les diatomees i a nivell de població estudiant la plasticitat fenotípica d'una espècie de diatomea (Nitzschia frustulum). A nivell d'ecosistema s'observa que els factors que afavoreixen el predomini dels diferents tipus de productors primaris (perífiton, fitoplàncton i macròfits) són la renovació i el grau d'eutròfia de l'aigua. A nivell de comunitat els factors determinants en la composició i distribució de les espècies de diatomees són els gradients confinament-inundació així com la productivitat del sistema. En funció d'aquest factors s'han establert 5 associacions de diatomees. A nivell de població es demostra que tant la salinitat, com la relació N : P a l'aigua com el moviment de l'aigua afecten la morfologia i ultraestructura de la valva de N. frustulum. De forma interessant s'observa que la salinitat, considerada com a factor individual, afecta N. frustulum a nivell poblacional provocant-li modificacions en la morfologia de la valva, per en canvi, no afecta a nivell de comunitat, ja que totes les espècies de diatomees presents en ambients de salinitat fluctuant són eurihalines.

Signal processing of microstructure profiles: integrating turbulent spatial scales in aquatic ecological modeling

The main objective of this thesis was the integration of microstructure information in synoptic descriptors of turbulence, that reflects the mixing processes. Turbulent patches are intermittent in space and time, but they represent the dominant process for mixing. In this work, the properties of turbulent patches were considered the potential input for integrating the physical microscale measurements. The development of a method for integrating the properties of the turbulent patches required solving three main questions: a) how can we detect the turbulent patches from he microstructure measurements?; b) which are the most relevant properties of the turbulent patches?; and ) once an interval of time has been selected, what kind of synoptic parameters could better reflect the occurrence and properties of the turbulent patches? The answers to these questions were the final specific objectives of this thesis.

Ecological interactions between an invasive fish (Gambusia holbrooki) and native cyprinodonts: the role of salinity

Actualment una de les principals amenaces a la biodiversitat és la introducció d'espècies. Revisant 26 variables de les 69 espècies de peixos continental de la Península Ibèrica concloem que la filogènia, variabilitat i els usos de l'home són necessaris per entendre millor les diferències entres les espècies natives i invasores. Entre les especies més afectades per la introducció de peixos es troben els ciprinodontiformes endèmics del Mediterrani. Aportem les primers dades sobre l'ús d'hàbitats ocasionalment inundats i la selecció de preses del fartet (Aphanius iberus), observant un canvi ontogenètic, clarament relacionat amb el microhàbitat. També demostrem que la salinitat influeix en l'èxit invasor de la gamúsia, afectant la seva densitat i biologia reproductiva. Per altra banda, demostrem experimentalment que amb l'increment de salinitat la gambúsia disminueix la seva agressivitat i captura menys preses, reduint la seva eficàcia competitiva respecte dels ciprinodonts natius.

Fish as ecological indicators in Mediterranean freshwater ecosystems

Podeu escriure el text directament o arrossegar-lo des d'un altre document L'objectiu d'aquesta tesi és contribuir a l'ús dels peixos continentals com a indicadors de l'estat ecològic a la conca Mediterrània. En el primer treball es va detectar que encara que tots els índex biològics estaven correlacionats significativament, els peixos integren i expressen els estressos de manera i a una escala diferents, aportant una informació complementària als altres índexs. Al segon article es van estudiar els cabals de sis conques catalanes. S'ha mostrat que els règims hídrics estan alterats amb una tendència a la disminució del cabal i del nivell dels aqüífers. S'ha detectat quatre mètriques de peixos que es troben significativament afectades en zones més castigades per manca d'aigua degut a l'activitat humana. Es discuteix la necessitat de conèixer en profunditat el règim hídric de cada conca abans d'utilitzar els índex biològics. Al tercer article es va detectar que la composició d'espècies capturades va variar significativament al llarg del buidat amb un augment de l'alburn (A. alburnus) a les aigües pelàgiques durant els dies de pitjor qualitat de l'aigua, confirmant que l'alburn és més tolerant a la mala qualitat de l'aigua que la madrilleta vera (R. rutilus) i suggereix el seu potencial com a bioindicador. La condició d'aquestes dues espècies va canviar significativament al llarg del buidat de manera molt estreta amb la qualitat de l'aigua. Al quart capítol es va estudiar la biologia dels peixos d'un embassament altament contaminat (Flix). El percentatge de DELT anomalies i la presència de paràsits externs era major en la zona impactada que als punts de control i els valors més alts de pes eviscerat i pes del fetge estaven als punts de control. Les respostes van ser diferents per cada espècie i la carpa va ser la que va mostrar més clarament els impactes.

Primary succession in man-made wetlands: biodiversity, structure and dynamics of macrofaunal assemblages

Man-made wetlands are often created to compensate for the loss or degradation of natural wetlands, but little is known about the processes taking place in these artificial environments, especially at the community level. Throughout this thesis, we have assessed the phenomena of primary succession over different time (short-, mid- and long-term) and spatial scales (local, regional, interregional levels), applying different approaches (taxonomic and functional) and subject groups (invertebrates and amphibians). Our main findings regarding time scales show a 3-phase successional pattern in Mediterranean man-made wetlands’ communities, where at the short term (1 year) colonization processes dominate; at mid term perspectives (2 to 7 years) succession signs begin to be conspicuous, and later on (≥ 10 years) parameters such as species richness reach an asymptote. At that moment, some biological strategies dominate, and biodiversity surrogates indicate that communities are indistinct between man-made and natural wetlands. Regarding spatial effects, we corroborated that both local and regional factors affect the establishing communities. Particularly, the low hydrological stability of the Mediterranean region has enhanced biological traits favoring resilience and resistance to disturbances when comparing Mediterranean and cold temperate aquatic communities. Even within the Mediterranean region, low levels of hydrological stability have significant effects on the successional dynamics. In these cases, local communities are highly nested within regional natural ones, and so are not able to make net contributions to regional richness. We also showed the influence of the regional pool of recruiters over local communities, both in the case of invertebrates and amphibians. Especially for the latter group, man-made Mediterranean temporary ponds (MTPs) can play an important role in their conservation.

Predicting Argentine ant invasion across spatial scales via ecological niche models

La formiga argentina (Linepithema humile) es troba entre les espècies més invasores: originària d'Amèrica del Sud, actualment ha envaït nombroses àrees arreu del món. Aquesta tesi doctoral intenta fer una primera anàlisi integrada i multiescalar de la distribució de la formiga argentina mitjançant l'ús de models de nínxol ecològic. D'acord amb els resultats obtinguts, es preveu que la formiga argentina assoleixi una distribució més àmplia que l'actual. Les prediccions obtingudes a partir dels models concorden amb la distribució actualment coneguda i, a més, indiquen àrees a prop de la costa i dels rius principals com a altament favorables per a l'espècie. Aquests resultats corroboren la idea que la formiga argentina no es troba actualment en equilibri amb el medi. D'altra banda, amb el canvi climàtic, s'espera que la distribució de la formiga argentina s'estengui cap a latituds més elevades en ambdós hemisferis, i sofreixi una retracció en els tròpics a escales globals.

Effects of Spruce Budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) Outbreaks on Boreal Mixed-Wood Bird Communities

This study examined the influence of a spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana (Clem.)) outbreak on a boreal mixed-wood bird community in forest stands ranging in age from 0 to 223 yr. We asked if (1) patterns of species response were consistent with the existence of spruce budworm specialists, i.e., species that respond in a stronger quantitative or qualitative way than other species; (2) the superabundance of food made it possible for species to expand their habitat use in age classes that were normally less used; and (3) the response to budworm was limited to specialists or was it more widespread. Results here indicated that three species, specifically the Bay-breasted Warbler (Dendroica castanea), Tennessee Warbler (Vermivora peregrina), and Cape May Warbler (Dendroica tigrina), had a larger numerical response to the budworm outbreak. They responded with increases in density of up to tenfold over 4 or 5 yr. No other species responded with more than a twofold increase in the same time period. These species also showed a functional response by breeding more frequently in young stands aged 1–21 yr and intermediate stands aged 22–36 yr as budworm numbers increased. Our data also suggested that many species profited to a lesser extent from budworm outbreaks, but that this effect may be too subtle to detect in most studies. We found evidence of a positive numerical effect in at least 18 additional species in one or two stand-age categories but never in all three for any one species. Given the numerical response in many species and the potential influence of budworm on bird populations because of the vast extent of outbreaks, we believe that the population cycle of spruce budworm should be considered in any evaluation of population trends in eastern boreal birds.

The Importance of Agriculture-Dominated Landscapes and Lack of Field Border Effect for Early-Succession Songbird Nest Success

In recent decades, many early-succession songbird species have experienced severe and widespread declines, which often are related to habitat destruction. Field borders create additional or enhance existing early-succession habitat on farmland. However, field border shape and the landscape context surrounding farms may influence the effectiveness of field borders in contributing to the stabilization or increase of early-succession bird populations. We examined the influence of linear and nonlinear field borders on farms in landscapes dominated by either agriculture or forests on nest success and Brown-headed Cowbird (Molothrus ater) brood parasitism of Indigo Bunting (Passerina cyanea) and Blue Grosbeak (Passerina caerulea) nests combined. Field border establishment did not affect nest survival probability and brood parasitism frequency of Indigo Bunting and Blue Grosbeak nests. Indigo Bunting/Blue Grosbeak nest success probability was more than twice as high in agriculture-dominated landscapes (39%) than in forested landscapes (17%), and brood parasitism frequency was high (33%) but did not differ between landscapes. Edges in agriculture-dominated landscapes can be higher-quality habitats for early-succession birds than edges in forest-dominated landscapes, but our field border treatments did not enhance nest success for these birds on farms in either landscape.

Identification of Putative Wintering Areas and Ecological Determinants of Population Dynamics of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) Breeding in Northern Italy

To identify the causes of population decline in migratory birds, researchers must determine the relative influence of environmental changes on population dynamics while the birds are on breeding grounds, wintering grounds, and en route between the two. This is problematic when the wintering areas of specific populations are unknown. Here, we first identified the putative wintering areas of Common House-Martin (Delichon urbicum) and Common Swift (Apus apus) populations breeding in northern Italy as those areas, within the wintering ranges of these species, where the winter Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), which may affect winter survival, best predicted annual variation in population indices observed in the breeding grounds in 1992–2009. In these analyses, we controlled for the potentially confounding effects of rainfall in the breeding grounds during the previous year, which may affect reproductive success; the North Atlantic Oscillation Index (NAO), which may account for climatic conditions faced by birds during migration; and the linear and squared term of year, which account for nonlinear population trends. The areas thus identified ranged from Guinea to Nigeria for the Common House-Martin, and were located in southern Ghana for the Common Swift. We then regressed annual population indices on mean NDVI values in the putative wintering areas and on the other variables, and used Bayesian model averaging (BMA) and hierarchical partitioning (HP) of variance to assess their relative contribution to population dynamics. We re-ran all the analyses using NDVI values at different spatial scales, and consistently found that our population of Common House-Martin was primarily affected by spring rainfall (43%–47.7% explained variance) and NDVI (24%–26.9%), while the Common Swift population was primarily affected by the NDVI (22.7%–34.8%). Although these results must be further validated, currently they are the only hypotheses about the wintering grounds of the Italian populations of these species, as no Common House-Martin and Common Swift ringed in Italy have been recovered in their wintering ranges.

Investigating Targets of Avian Habitat Management to Eliminate an Ecological Trap

Ecological traps are attractive population sinks created when anthropogenic habitat alteration inadvertently creates a mismatch between the attractiveness of a habitat based upon its settlement cues, and its current value for survival or reproduction. Traps represent a new threat to the conservation of native species, yet little attention has been given to developing practical approaches to eliminating them. In the northern Rocky Mountains of Montana, Olive-sided Flycatchers (Contopus cooperi) prefer to settle in patches of selectively harvested forest versus burned forest despite the lower reproductive success and higher nest predation risk associated with the former habitat. I investigated characteristics of preferred perch sites for this species and how these preferences varied between habitats and sexes. I then built on previous research to develop a range of management prescriptions for reducing the attractiveness of selectively harvested forest, thereby disarming the ecological trap. Female flycatchers preferred to forage from shorter perch trees than males, and females’ perches were shorter than other available perch trees. Both sexes preferred standing dead perch trees (snags) and these preferences were most obvious in harvested forest where snags are rarer. Because previous research shows that snag density is linked to habitat preference and spruce/fir trees are preferred nest substrate, my results suggest these two habitat components are focal habitat selection cues. I suggest alternative and complementary strategies for eliminating the ecological trap for Olive-sided Flycatchers including: (1) reduced retention and creation of snags, (2) avoiding selective harvest in spruce, fir, and larch stands, (3) avoiding retention of these tree species, and (4) selecting only even-aged canopy height trees for retention so as to reduce perch availability for female flycatchers. Because these strategies also have potential to negatively impact habitat suitability for other forest species or even create new ecological traps, we urge caution in the application of our management recommendations.